Ukraine Invasion: Part 45

[MagicFox]

Thanks to all: contributors, lurkers and those in-between

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

The accuracy of this has not been verified, but there were claims of a leaked report on future plans for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/mfphhh/status/1703502731959250945

Pedro
AT mfphhh

Important: Russian plan for the final destruction of UkraineA few weeks ago, leading Russian scientists published an extensive strategy paper on foreign and domestic policy strategy for the Russian government, which was now leaked by a Russian news site. 1/20

On 20 pages, the recommendations are: - Provide nuclear weapons to third states - Permanently destroy all of Ukraine’s infrastructure (incl. transportation/energy) and transform it to an empty agrarian buffer zone - Deport at least 1-2 million Ukrainians to Siberia 2/20

Author of the study is, among others, A. Karaganov, head of the council for foreign and security politics, and dean at Moscow economic university. The other members are well connected in influential government institutions. 3/20

Main theme The goal of a new foreign policy: turning away from the West and enforcing a multipolar world order. To that end, Russia is e.g. advised to nullify all treaties on nuclear weapon control with the US. 4/20

Specifically, Russia is advised to terminate OSCE membership and exit from the treaty on nuclear non-proliferation (NPT). Enabling third states to obtain nuclear weapons would further the aspired “multipolar world order”. 5/20

Since the focus of Russian foreign policy is expected to shift towards Asia, they demand the accelerated build-up of new infrastructure and new population centers in Russia’s east and Siberia. There are two ideas to provide the necessary labor force: 6/20

Firstly, living conditions for migrant workers from central Asia should be improved and racism against these ethnic groups should be suppressed. Secondly, Ukraine is to be exploited as a resource. 7/20

Ukrainian POWs should be subjected to forced labor for the large infrastructure projects (building roads and railways). In addition, in a first step 1-2 million Ukrainians should be deported to the new settlements in Siberia. 8/20

Beyond that, Ukraine plays no important role in the strategic considerations. Their land shall be transformed into a depopulated buffer zone against the west. There should be no investments into rebuilding Ukraine. On the contrary: A „tabula rasa“ is demanded. 9/20

After Ukraine’s occupation, all of its infrastructure should be destroyed: - road and rail networks - energy production - industry - large settlements. At the end of this transformation, Ukraine should be a depopulated agrarian backyard. 10/20

This is intended to permanently deprive Ukraine of the possibility of existing as an independent state and nation. Only in this way could Ukrainian “nationalism's desire for independence” be permanently broken. Ukraine would become “uninteresting for the West”. 11/20

To end the war in Ukraine, the report suggests more credible threats of preemptive nuclear strikes on Western countries that continue to supply weapons to Ukraine. [Pedro's comment: This may explain some "uncertainties" in the German Chancellor's Office]. 12/20

Karaganov had recommended in an earlier paper that preemptive nuclear strikes on Poland, for example, be carried out immediately to give the RU nuclear threats more "credibility". He assessed the likelihood of a NATO response as low. 13/20

Sergey Utkin@usv1980
and@jakluge
had already reported on this paper earlier this month, but there was not much response. I think it is important to more clearly publicize the position of these Russian elites (that is not Putin alone) here with us. 14/20

In my opinion, it is a systematic failure of the Western leading media not to address the intentions of the Russian leadership to destroy Ukraine more prominently and more clearly. Appeasing, relativizing and false balance wont help here. 15/20

How can it be that 41% of the respondents of a recent public poll in Germany want to force the Ukraine to "lose territory"? I explain it to myself by the fact that these people obviously know NOTHING about those Russian plans. 16/20 [Ducks: info graphic provided but you can't upload more than 5 images]

I cannot imagine that a large part of the German population wants to watch and approve how Russia implements the above mentioned fascist-totalitarian plans of destruction and deportations in the "lost" territories of Ukraine. 17/20

RU plans are known. They are not Putin's plans, they are the plans of Russian elites. The paper calls for the destabilization of Europe, economically and politically, as an important foreign policy goal. An attack against which Europe has so far hardly defended itself. 18/20

The debate in the West must finally be turned from head to toe. No: there can not be any negotiation with a state like Russia, whose majority of population is actively and knowingly participating in a war of annihilation, whose leadership is breaking all treaties. 19/20

Russia is our enemy today. A majority of the Russian population is hostile towards the West. Be it from brainwashing, opportunism, ideology. There is no common ground for negotiations. Let's stand against this threat by unequivocally supporting Ukraine. 20/20

https://newsland-com.translate.goog/post/7698415-karaganov-podgotovil-sekretnyy-doklad-dlya-putina-migrantam-vse-russkim-deportaciya-v-sibir-i-katorga?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[Ducks: I couldnt offhand find if this is a reliable source, though it looks okay on first glance. But everything has to be taken in that context.

If this article is accurate, then at least these individuals have a firm plan to partially depopulate and to de-technify Ukraine. Clearly they are not in the ascendency, because although Belorus has been given nuclear bombs and there seems a considerable likelihood Iran and NK will now gain the tech, the nuclear bombs aimed at Poland have not gone off. But the less dramatic aspects could have a place in the Kremlin plans.

Against this is the fact that Russia is building new railways in the occupied territories. These could be for the transport of the military personnel and hardware in the short term though. Railways would also help transport grain etc though maybe; I don't know the grain transport routes from Russia.

But it doesn't seem like Russia cares one jot about the fact that the mines are ruining the country they want to take over. They have also mined fields and forests; as @BezMills says, it seems that they are in this for the destruction now.

Well that’s cheery 😭😂

Sorry 😟

It all depends on Russia winning the land and forcing a peace though.

On the good side, with the amount of artillery that is being demolished every day at the moment, the effectiveness of their military force is diminishing - Russian doctrine relies on it. They are starting to move away from it to some degree but the constant destruction is making them less effective. Their counter counteroffensive isn't getting very far (at least they haven't been trumpetting any successes that I'm aware of and they do, indeed, try to push as much air through their tarnished trumpets as they can). The new conscription is not going to turn the tide by any means (poor training, poor equipment). At a guess, Ukrainians are hammering away at them until in the end hopefully the forces may well become almost useless. But it will take time.

Some of the more irritating posters early on were right, unfortunately.

https://www.rand.org/news/press/2023/09/21.html

Recent report from the RAND Corp (a U.S. non-partisan Think Tank) on the risk of escalation in Ukraine by Russia. Worth a read.

https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RRA2800/RRA2807-1/RAND_RRA2807-1.pdf

And if anyone fancies the full report.

huh. The Finnish president gave a warning recently about the Russian willingness to use nuclear weopons.

But it's still very far from their interests to do so and Putin is a survivor.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

❗️Russia jams GPS signal of ships in Romanian territorial waters.
"This causes the risk of collisions, Romania and NATO must prepare for a long-term confrontation with the regime of the Russian Federation", — the Army Chief of Staff, General Daniel Petrescu, per Romania Journal.

❗️Russian forces targeted the Vinnytsia region using Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, an important infrastructure object was hit.

The Russians are resorting to transporting combat boats via land routes, likely to avoid the threat of Ukrainian drone strikes, as reported by "Atesh."
Specifically, members of the partisan movement have documented the movement of these combat boats along the "H06" road in the direction of Sevastopol. These boats are typically utilized for patrolling the coastline of Crimea.

Slovak volunteers 🇸🇰 collected 650,000 euros for the Bozena-5 demining machine for Ukraine.
The manufacturer The Way Industries, promises to deliver it by the end of the year. It will also send additional equipment and train sappers to work with the machine.
These machines are already in use in Ukraine. They are demining the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Their feature is that they are remotely controlled and can clear an area of up to 9 kilometers in an hour.

Dmytro Kuleba has revealed that Africa is interested in hosting the production of Ukrainian weapons on its territory. He described this development as a new trend and anticipates a strong demand for the sale and production of Ukrainian-manufactured weapons in the region.

The Turkish defense company Baykar is making a significant investment of $100 million in the construction of a drone production factory in Ukraine, as announced by Baykar's CEO, Haluk Bayraktar. Construction of the plant is already underway, with an estimated completion time of 1.5 years. The project is expected to generate approximately 300 job opportunities at the facility.

The Bundestag has declared that Ukraine has the right to launch missiles towards Russian Federation territory.
This statement was made by Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the head of the Bundestag's defense committee, who called on the German government to promptly provide Ukraine with long-range Taurus missiles.
"Furthermore, international law permits Ukraine to target military facilities within the territory of the Russian aggressor, regardless of the origin or supplier of these weapons," she emphasized. [now for someone to hand Scholz some balls].

The Main Directorate of Intelligence and the Ministry of Internal Affairs have successfully returned two Ukrainian paratroopers who had been stranded in the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine for a year and a half.

🎬 The State Agency for Tourism Development of Ukraine has received a Cannes Corporate Media & TV Award.
The awarded 'The Campaign Waiting to Happen' was aimed at attracting more tourists to Ukraine, and was supposed to be launched in March 2022, but was rescheduled due to war.

[From yesterday] On September 29, 1941 almost 34,000 Jewish citizens of Kyiv, Ukraine were forcibly rounded up and shot over two days at Babyn Yar, a ravine then on the outskirts of the city. More Jews were murdered in those two days than in any other single German massacre. This was one of the largest single mass killings of Jewish people during the Holocaust.
We honor the memory of those who have perished, as well as the survivors, whose stories serve as a solemn reminder of the dangers of indifference and inaction in the face of hatred. Babyn Yar is also a reminder of our individual and collective responsibilities to remember, to bear witness, to prevent and act against violence and mass atrocity.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇨🇭 Switzerland allocates $109 million for demining in Ukraine. The money will be provided over the period of 2024-2027.

🇪🇺 The new head of the EU Delegation to Ukraine, Katarina Mathernova, believes that 2030 is a realistic date for Ukraine's accession to the EU, provided that the current pace of reforms is maintained.
She also said that Zelensky had promised to complete work on the seven criteria of the European Commission in a month.

Ukraine's Ambassador to Poland Vasyl Zvarych claims that the dispute between the two countries over restrictions on Ukrainian agricultural products will not affect bilateral relations, and the parties are ready to resolve it

In the Kyiv region, two men privately stored a Russian TOR anti-aircraft missile system and ammunition. The occupiers abandoned these weapons when they fled Chernihiv region.
Law enforcement exposed the dealers and seized eight anti-aircraft missiles worth UAH 30 million.
By court order, the ammunition was handed over to the Armed Forces, and the men were handed over to law enforcement. The dealers could face up to 7 years in prison for possessing weapons without proper permits.

At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Russians destroyed 90% of the air defense of the Kharkiv region.
The head of the Kharkiv Defense Forces, Serhiy Melnyk, said that after February 24, he contacted the commander of the 32nd Air Defense Missile Regiment and heard that almost the entire brigade had been destroyed.
"But he still had S-300 missiles, and they managed to put them on alert. We managed to make sure that Russian aircraft did not continue to attack Kharkiv," Melnyk said.

🇧🇾 Belarusian authorities plan to organize a meeting of foreign diplomats with deported Ukrainian children.
According to Ukraine's Foreign Ministry, the meeting with children from Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk is scheduled for October 4 at so-called "places of residence, education and rehabilitation." The Foreign Ministry says Belarus wants to hide behind international representatives to legalize the deportation. Ukraine asks foreign countries not to participate in this and reminds that under international law, the deportation of children is a war crime.

⚡️General CQ Brown succeeds https://kyivindependent.com/general-cq-brown-succeeds-mark-milley-as-us-chairman-of-the-joint-chiefs/* Mark Milley as US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. [*@MissConductUS do you know much about him? is he effective and pro-Ukraine?]

I know a bit about him. He's an ROTC grad 😁, a former F-16 instructor, considered an astute air combat tactician and strategist, served in Italy and Germany, and is well liked by his subordinates and peers. Milley was boisterous; Brown is a bit more reserved. He hasn't spoken publically about Ukraine, which is as it should be, but the Ukrainians have expressed off-the-record support for him. He's well positioned to get the Ukrainian's training and support for the F-16s.

Milley had broader political support for Ukraine aid, but Brown will have murkier waters to navigate. But I think his personality is better suited for that than Milley's. A fine choice overall.

Phew. Very good to hear.

@DancesWithDucks that article you posted…wow 😞 I appreciate you couldn’t clarify the source, but what an interesting if not awful read.

Thanks for posting that RAND report @Igotjelly

Pmk

Yeah.

I read it and thought No Way, this is setting back a whole massive country back to the pre-Holodomor times.

But there are pieces of the puzzle that fit in.

They have stationed nuclear weopens in one of their vassal states.

They have broken the nuclear non-proliferation treaties and are talking of expanding nuclear military elements. I cannot quite recall the exact details but it was reported about two weeks ago.

They have flattened masses of Ukrainian settlements.

Attacks on energy generation facilities have happened and the Kremlin is gearing up propaganda to make it clear it'll happen again.

They have killed many many tens of thousands, either directly by destroying the settlement or by conscripting the occupied people to fight, or by direct murder. The area of space given over to Mariupol's newly dead is huge.

They've taken children en masse - one of their claims was about 200,000 iirc - certainly over 100,000.

They have destroyed the Kakhovka damn. Possibly accidently too much, but they did destroy it.

Apart from dropping nuclear weopons on Poland, they've carried out quite a few elements mentioned in that article.

Im starting to think that Russia isn't actually worried about using nuclear weopens at all, and are quite happy to perceive the West as being very weak about it. It has been. But I think that perhaps Russia doesn't realise that once that very red line is stepped over, the West will (Ime) come together in a way that makes the initial unity in the face of the invasion look like nothing. I think if nukes are used, there will be a wall presented to Russia like nothing else. Plus China will be furious.

I still don't think it's going to happen. But I'm suspecting that as well as the West not understanding Russia, Russia doesn't understand the West. It didn't over the initial invasion and it might well not over this (in my not-trained perceptions!)

That may have been the original objective, but once that was shown to be unachievable it has turned into "if I can't have you, no one can"

Interesting exit polls coming out of Slovakia this evening, progressives doing much better than expected.

In other news UK troops to be sent to Ukraine apparently as a training mission (Sky breaking news)

Excellent news hoping against hope Fico doesn't get in.

Crossed fingers.

Meanwhile, about General CQ Brown: can he actually take up his post, or do the antics of the repulsive Tuberville mean that he can't at the moment?

He's in. They bypassed the committee and approved the nomination by a full vote of the Senate, which was always an option.

Normally, the Armed Services Committee approves the whole list of pending promotions and the Senate approves the list in one vote. So technically, the Democrats in control of the Senate could have resolved this months ago.

No aid for Ukraine in US budget!

Thanks, MissConduct.

If there is no aid for Ukraine in the US budget, does that mean that you now have one? (I have been out of comms for the day and must have missed it.) Goodness everyone must be bored with the Republicans shutting down the government to make petty party political points....

@Igotjelly

In other news UK troops to be sent to Ukraine apparently as a training mission (Sky breaking news)

Seems to have been announced by Grant Shapps so it might be a case of waiting a day or two to see what has really been offered and when.

Not sure what the Ukrainians gain by such a move and it will be interesting from a diplomatic and military POV to see the consequences if any such troops deployed in theatre are injured or killed by Russian ordnance.

Calm down, everyone! They did not pass the budget. They are trying to pass a "continuing resolution" (CR) that carries forward current spending levels for 45 days while the budget process moves forward. The CR that passed does not contain additional funds for Ukraine, but other authorized funds for Ukraine can still be spent while the process moves forward.

Blimey, it's a good thing I'm around to explain American politics to you lot. 😉

So, notim, what do you think of the fact that an F-16 driver was appointed as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs?

Thanks again. So Ukraine can still have help for the time being; phew.

With luck the crazy faction will now hold a meeting somewhere (with cake and indoor fireworks) to celebrate having royally fscked everyone over, and the building they are in will be destroyed by a meteorite, leaving no survivors. Cue several by-elections (whatever you call them in the USA: I am too tired to think straight) and a clear indication that God was not on their side.