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Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

981 replies

MagicFox · 20/08/2023 12:43

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

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341
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 09/09/2023 08:42

minsmum · 09/09/2023 00:00

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1700278646085153175 The US to send ATACMS to Ukraine for the first time,they appear to have found some down the back of the sofa

Finally! That is brilliant news if true 🤞

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 09/09/2023 08:45

Although Euromaiden are saying it may be months before they arrive in theatre:

US officials told ABC News that Ukraine is likely set to receive ATACMS long-range missiles in an upcoming military aid package, but the decision isn't final, and the supplies may take months.

x.com/euromaidanpress/status/1700413554988351955?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 09/09/2023 09:08

Sadly, the place in Russian occupied Melitopol where the Russian barbarians were "counting the votes" in their "election" has been blown up.

x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1700241111615201433?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

Yesterday during Russia's sham elections in occupied #Ukraine, the United Russia (Putin's party) political headquarters in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian city of Polohy was destroyed in an attack, according to the mayor of Melitopol. So now it's the slightly ununited HQ.

https://x.com/glasnostgone/status/1700394629567328582?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 09/09/2023 11:55

Some brave people in occupied Ukraine:

In Russian occupied Kherson, soldiers are going door to door, forcibly taking people out of their homes to "polling stations", where propaganda videos are produced, showing the world all that awesome democracy Russians bring everywhere they invade.

x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1700429856444457036?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

The above link contains a video of the mobile polling stations with the masked soldiers demanding the home owners vote.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
DancesWithDucks · 09/09/2023 12:28

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Reuters: G20 begins https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-g20-begins-without-consensus-on-ukraine/ without consensus on Ukraine.
Negotiators at the G20 summit in New Delhi left a paragraph on Ukraine blank in the leaders' draft declaration due to unresolved disagreements, Reuters reported on Sept. 8.

⚡️IAEA: Increased military activity observed (https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-increased-military-activity-observed-near-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant/) near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Signs of "increased military activity" ....... pose a possible danger to nuclear security at the site, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) wrote in its Sept. 8 report.

⚡️ FT: Musk gave his biographer confidential messages with Ukraine's Minister Fedorov without permission.
https://kyivindependent.com/ft-musk-gave-his-biographer-confidential-messages-with-ukraines-minister-fedorov/
The minister told the outlet that he was unaware that Walter Isaacson had obtained and published the exchange regarding Musk's restriction of Starlink satellite communications to thwart Ukraine's military.

⚡️ABC News: US will likely send https://kyivindependent.com/abc-news-us-will-likely-send-atacms-to-ukraine-in-upcoming-aid-package/ ATACMS to Ukraine in upcoming aid package.
According to U.S. officials, Washington will likely send long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, to Ukraine in an upcoming security assistance package, ABC News reported on Sept. 8.

⚡️UK planes guard (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-planes-guard-ukrainian-grain-ships-in-black-sea/ Ukrainian grain ships in Black Sea.
The U.K. has been sending Royal Air Force (RAF) planes to protect Black Sea vessels carrying grain shipments from Ukraine, a Downing Street press release disclosed on Sept. 7.

⚡️ Military: Russia prepares strike force near Novoiehorivka in Lyman direction.
https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-accumulates-forces-at-novoyehorivka-in-lyman-direction/ is accumulating its forces near the Luhansk Oblast village of Novoiehorivka in the Lyman direction, which is one of the epicenters of fighting on the eastern front, Eastern Force Grouping spokesperson Illia Yevlash said on Sept. 8.

The headquarters of the political party "United Russia" located in the occupied city of Polohy, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, were destroyed on Sept. 8, Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported via Telegram.

⚡️ Military: Ukraine controls most of Klishchiivka in Donetsk Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-ukraine-controls-most-of-klishchiivka-in-donetsk-oblast/

⚡️ General Staff: Ukraine advances south of Robotyne (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukraine-advances-south-of-robotyne/) in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

⚡️ Lithuania transfers over 1.5 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine. kyivindependent.com/lithuania-transfers-over-1-5-million-rounds-of-ammunition-to-ukraine/

The Russian Air Force has withdrawn almost all of its aircraft stationed in Belarus, leaving behind only one Su-25 attack plane, the monitoring group Belarusian Hajun reported on Sept. 8. https://kyivindependent.com/monitoring-group-russia-withdraws-almost-all-air-forces-from-belarus/

⚡️ Update: 1 killed, 73 injured in Russian attack on Kryvyi Rih. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-ukraine-controls-most-of-klishchiivka-in-donetsk-oblast/

⚡️ Zelensky: Ukraine's counteroffensive moves faster than new sanctions. https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukraine-advances-south-of-robotyne/

⚡️Zelensky holds (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-holds-phone-call-with-saudi-crown-prince-on-ukraine-peace-efforts/) phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud on Ukraine peace efforts.

⚡️ Romania to set up shelters https://kyivindependent.com/romania-to-intrudce-air-raid-alerts-shelters-in-response-to-russian-danube-strikes/ near area of Russian Danube strikes.

Romania will introduce new security measures to protect the civilian population near the Danube River in response to Russian strikes against Ukrainian ports, based on a document issued on Sept. 7 by Romania's National Committee for Emergency Situations. https://kyivindependent.com/official-united-russia-hq-destroyed-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast-amid-sham-elections/

At Ukraine's request, the Pentagon had decided to prolong the training of Ukrainian soldiers on Abrams tanks, the Voice of America reported on Sept. 8, citing U.S. Army Europe and Africa Command's spokesperson Martin O'Donnell. https://kyivindependent.com/media-us-prolongs-abrams-tank-training-for-ukrainian-soldiers/

The EU Council imposed sanctions against six Russian individuals responsible for human rights abuses in Russia and in occupied Crimea, the Council announced on Sept. 8. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-council-sanctions-russian-individuals-over-human-rights-abuses-in-crimea/

The easier-to-read figures haven't been released (that I can find) so to summarize from Ragnar:
Russians killed: 600
Artillery: 36
Other vehicles: 34
Tanks: 15
MLRS: 3
Air Defense Systems: 1

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - SEP 9
■ Engagements slightly below average, 7x strikes on command centers
■ Troop losses stay high, triple-digit equipment
■ Significant special eq. & tank losses
■ Oryx: +1, +1(net change) - total ratio back to x2.7

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
DancesWithDucks · 09/09/2023 12:28

From the Kyiv Independent:

Musk says he denied request to turn on Starlink in Crimea to prevent attack on Russia's fleet (https://kyivindependent.com/musk-denies-turning-off-starlink-to-disrupt-ukrainian-attack-on-russias-fleet/

Elon Musk denied that he had Starlink satellite communications deactivated near Crimea last year to disrupt a Ukrainian drone attack against Russian military ships, saying that they had not been active in this region in the first place.

However, Musk also said he had received a request "from government authorities" to activate Starlink, operated by his spacecraft manufacturer SpaceX, "all the way to Sevastopol." He didn't specify who exactly had sent the request.

"The obvious intent being to sink most of the Russian fleet at anchor. If I had agreed to their request, then SpaceX would be explicitly complicit in a major act of war and conflict escalation," the billionaire claimed on his social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.

Musk says he denied request to turn on Starlink in Crimea to prevent attack on Russia's fleet

Elon Musk said he had received a request "from government authorities" to activate Starlink, operated by his spacecraft manufacturer SpaceX, "all the way to Sevastopol." He didn't specify who exactly had sent the request. "The obvious intent being to s...

https://kyivindependent.com/musk-denies-turning-off-starlink-to-disrupt-ukrainian-attack-on-russias-fleet

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 09/09/2023 12:42

Do people believe things Musk claims?

blueshoes · 09/09/2023 12:44

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-8-2023

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian forces have reportedly made notable changes to their command and control (C2) in Ukraine to protect command infrastructure and improve information sharing, although Russian force deployments are likely still exacerbating issues with horizontal integration.
  • Artillery constraints in Ukraine are reportedly prompting the Russian military to accelerate longstanding efforts to implement a fires doctrine prioritizing accuracy over volume.
  • Russian forces are additionally reportedly adapting their deployment of electronic warfare (EW) complexes.
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly continued to advance south of Bakhmut and south of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make any confirmed gains on September 8.
  • Russian forces conducted another series of Shahed-131/136 drone strikes targeting Odesa Oblast on the night of September 7–8.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov publicly rejected an incredibly favorable offer from the UN Secretariat that met many of Russia’s stated demands to rejoin the Black Sea Grain Initiative on September 6, indicating that the Kremlin is either delaying its return to the grain deal in an attempt to extract maximum concessions from the West or has no intention whatsoever of returning to the grain deal.
  • The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) directly responded to recent indications that the Armenian government may be questioning its decades-long security relationship with Russia.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line, near Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line but did not make any confirmed advances on September 8.
  • The New York Times (NYT) — citing Western, African, and Russian sources — reported that Russian intelligence structures are competing for control of the Wagner Group’s assets and operations in Africa.
  • Russian occupation officials continue to hold illegal regional elections in occupied Ukraine. Russian occupation officials in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts announced the start of in-person voting in occupied territories on September 8.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
DancesWithDucks · 09/09/2023 12:50

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The UN Secretary-General has offered Sergey Lavrov a four-point deal to get Russia to return to the grain deal. The German newspaper Bild publishes https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/guterres-und-lawrow-schmieden-finsteren-plan-un-komplott-soll-aggressor-russland-85328612.bild.html these four points:
▫️lift EU sanctions against the Russian Agrarian Bank.
▫️insure Russian ships against attacks in the Black Sea;
▫️unfreeze the assets of Russian fertilizer companies;
▫️access of Russian ships transporting food and fertilizers to EU ports.
According to Bild, the Russian leadership is now carefully studying the UN proposals and has not yet agreed to them, as the Kremlin considers the proposals "too good to be true."

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urges G20 leaders to meet some Russian demands to revive grain deal - Bloomberg

📑 The G20 diplomats have reached an agreement on how to describe Russia's war with Ukraine in the final communiqué of the summit. The wording still needs to be approved by the leaders of the countries. Earlier, the media reported that China did not agree with the wording condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

🇩🇰🇺🇦 Denmark has sent the first 10 Leopard 1A5 tanks to Ukraine, according to Army Commander Arpe Nielsen.
▪️In total, Ukraine expects more than 100 such vehicles from Denmark and Germany.

For the first time since the beginning of the war, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi visited Ukraine.

The Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate said it has a list of Russian strategic facilities to be destroyed and is methodically working on it.
"They are all numbered, hierarchically assigned, their significance is determined, and we are purposefully destroying them in order to reduce the potential of the Russian Federation and achieve a domino effect, when the destruction of one enterprise will lead to the fact that others that are tied to its products will stop producing military products," Skibitsky said.

🇦🇲 The Armenian ambassador was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry because of a number of "unfriendly steps": the transfer of the first humanitarian aid to Ukraine, the visit of the prime minister's wife to Kyiv, and the launch of the ratification process for the Rome Statute.

🇪🇪Estonia promises to be the first country in the EU to approve confiscation of Russian assets - Bloomberg.

In Zaporizhzhia, a colonel of the State Emergency Service organized a scheme to steal and sell departmental fuel. The embezzlement was so large-scale that the official had to set up a mini-fuel station right on the territory of his own estate. The scheme caused UAH 2.3 million in losses to the state. The official and his accomplices were exposed and face up to 12 years in prison.

The Ukrainian flag is flying in balloons over Donetsk ( clip of a free-flying balloon in Ukr colours =) )

👥 American historian Timothy Snyder met with the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhnyi.
Snyder signed the joint photo as follows:
"Strength is with us. And so is happiness".

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
DancesWithDucks · 09/09/2023 13:02

UNITED24: Media Telegram

Canada to hold a public inquiry into Russian and Chinese meddling in 2019 and 2021 elections, — AP.
They were defeated by candidates from the Liberal Party of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
However, intelligence suggests that China has tried to support the liberals and win over the opposition conservatives, who are unfriendly to Beijing.
The reports prompted Conservative lawmakers to demand a full public inquiry.
Subsequently, the "New Democratic Party" insisted on expanding the investigation to Russia, Iran, and India.
The investigation will be led by Quebec Court of Appeal judge Marie-José Hogue, whose appointment was supported by opposition parties.

The US will create a military base in Finland, — the Finnish publication Iltalehti with reference to the country's president Sauli Niinistö.
The infrastructure of the airbase in the province of Lappi will be used to host the first F-35s of the Finnish BBC.
The Pentagon also plans to conclude similar agreements with two more Scandinavian countries — Denmark and Sweden — in the near future.
An agreement on the placement of an American military base in Norway has already been reached.

Tires will not save Russian planes from being hit by Ukrainian cardboard drones, said a representative of the development company in a comment to "Television Toronto".
A drone made of aviation cardboard, against which the Russians try to protect themselves by covering their planes with tires, works on the principle of some models of missiles from HIMARS.
The impressive element is tungsten carbide balls, which are twice as heavy and ten times stronger than steel.
The ammunition explodes not from contact with the surface, but above the target, covering the affected area with these balls, which easily penetrate not only aircraft aluminum, but also a steel plate with a thickness of 3.5 mm.

🌻 In Britain, Ukrainian students learn how to improve the quality of soil contaminated by the consequences of hostilities.
Heavy metals and other pollutants have already been detected in some soil samples. This can affect the quality of crops grown in contaminated fields and spoil the world's food supply.

❗️In the Kherson region, three sappers of The HALO Trust were blown up by a Russian mine. They are engaged in humanitarian demining of the Kherson region.
The 24-year-old man received severe head and neck injuries. Now he is having surgery. Two more men received shrapnel wounds. They are provided with medical assistance.

Since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, the occupiers have lost 43 Ka-52 "Alligator" attack helicopters.

A Chinese opera singer, Wang Feng, sang "Katyusha" at the ruins of the Mariupol Drama Theatre, prompting the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry to seek an explanation from Beijing.
Wang Feng's performance took place at the site where over 600 people lost their lives in March of the previous year due to a Russian Federation airstrike.
Oleg Nikolenko, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, revealed that a group of Chinese bloggers had also arrived in the occupied city of Mariupol. Nikolenko characterized the singer's performance as a stark example of moral decline and deemed the bloggers' arrival illegal, in clear violation of Ukrainian legislation governing the entry of foreigners across the national border.

Meanwhile, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrived in Lviv by Intercity+ train

Ukraine managed to bring home nine more children. Two of them were in the occupied territory, and one guy was interrogated, and imprisoned. The Russians accused him of blowing up the bridge.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
Ukraine Invasion: Part 44
DancesWithDucks · 09/09/2023 14:30

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 09/09/2023 12:42

Do people believe things Musk claims?

I don't really. Can't decide if he's a manipulative (and manipulated) liar, someone who sits sort of askew on the world and sees things in a different and often wrong way to everyone else, or both.

blueshoes · 09/09/2023 14:59

The Week is good at pulling together different commentators on various topics.

https://theweek.com/elon-musk/1026354/elon-musk-starlink-spacex-ukraine#

Is Elon Musk too powerful?

Well, yes. He is one unpredictable guy.

The article says when one tech billionaire can stop an entire army on the other side of the globe, the risks might outweigh the rewards. Musk is able to dominate various spaces such as private space travel and communications industries because the government ceded it by default to Musk and sleepwalked into allowing Musk to concentrate such acute power in himself, sometimes even to the detriment of his own companies.

PerkingFaintly · 09/09/2023 15:03

DancesWithDucks · 09/09/2023 14:30

I don't really. Can't decide if he's a manipulative (and manipulated) liar, someone who sits sort of askew on the world and sees things in a different and often wrong way to everyone else, or both.

Both. So I strongly believe.

blueshoes · 09/09/2023 15:07

DancesWithDucks · 09/09/2023 14:30

I don't really. Can't decide if he's a manipulative (and manipulated) liar, someone who sits sort of askew on the world and sees things in a different and often wrong way to everyone else, or both.

He probably believes he is too clever to be manipulated. But he is coming up against ex-KGB. So it is like an irresistable force meets an immovable object. The physics is way off the scale.

PerkingFaintly · 09/09/2023 15:25

I've long thought Putin's manipulative skills are very like judo: he typically turns other people's (and other countries') strengths against them.

minsmum · 09/09/2023 15:31

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1700473262071779448 Ukrainian troops have reached Novomaoirske, sorry about my spelling

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1700473262071779448

minsmum · 09/09/2023 15:33

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1700514202379509859 report about the horrors taking place in occupied Ukraine

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1700514202379509859

MissConducUS · 09/09/2023 20:35

I thought this thread did an okay job of outlining the impact that having ATACMS will have. The missile has both cluster munition and unitary warhead versions, so we'll have to see which are sent. One point that the thread alludes to is the time to target. Because it's a rocket, it's much faster than a cruise missile, which is driven by a jet engine. ATACMS flies at a bit over Mach 3, or about 1 KM per second. So it can hit a target at its maximum range of 300 KM in five minutes or less. The high speed also makes it difficult to shoot down.

I expect it to see a lot of use against targets in Crimea. If Ukraine cuts the land bridge, Russia can still supply troops in Crimea by sea and air. So ports and airfields will be high priority targets.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1700288770082263176

In other news, the UAF have requested some additional training time on the Abrams tanks in Germany, which will delay their arrival by a few weeks.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-m1-abrams-tank-training-extended

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1700288770082263176

minsmum · 09/09/2023 21:33

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1700602811094892632 complaints about fuel starvation in Russian agriculture. An interesting thread by Trent Telekenko

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1700602811094892632

DancesWithDucks · 09/09/2023 21:43

If all that turns out to be verified @minsmum then Russia's income is going to fall :o

The price of Russian pipeline gas for #China is expected to fall steadily over the next few years and will be much lower than what Moscow sells to Europe, according to a Russian government document seen by Reuters. According to the document, the price of Russian pipeline gas for Turkey and Europe will decrease in 2023 to $501.6 per 1000 cubic meters and $481.7 in 2024, for China it will be $297.3 and $271.6 in 2023 and 2024, respectively. If this happens, Russia will continue to see declining revenues from it’s gas exports, further reducing it’s capacity to fund it’s malevolence globally.

blueshoes · 09/09/2023 21:46

Thanks for the links MissConductUS. ATACMS look like another game changer from the US. To Crimea, With Love. What do you make of UAF asking for more training time with the Abrams tanks in Germany? The delay with reduce the mud-free window to use them in battle before the rainy season, but I assume UAF really need the extra training.

Minsmum, I was surprised to read that the fuel starvation is in Russia itself! Whatever happened to the Gas Station masquerading as a Country.

DancesWithDucks · 09/09/2023 21:51

From what the Kyiv Independent said this morning, the Abrams further training is during the time needed to complete the refurbishment of the ones that are going to be delivered. This is the full article:

At Ukraine's request, the Pentagon had decided to prolong the training of Ukrainian soldiers on Abrams tanks, the Voice of America reported on Sept. 8, citing U.S. Army Europe and Africa Command's spokesperson Martin O'Donnell.
Almost 200 Ukrainian military personnel will continue to improve their skills in operating and maintaining the vehicles for a few more weeks until the promised batch of 31 Abrams M1A1 is refitted and ready to be delivered, O'Donnell said.
The main part of the courses, taking place on a U.S. base in Germany, concluded in August.
U.S. President Joe Biden announced the decision to send 31 M1 Abrams tanks, a force equivalent to one Ukrainian battalion, to Ukraine in January, just as other Western partners pledged their own advanced armor such as Leopard 2 or Challenger 2 tanks.
The Abrams tanks are expected to arrive this fall. Politico reported that the first 10 vehicles are scheduled to be delivered in mid-September.

Politico: 10 Abrams tanks to reach Ukraine by mid-September

According to U.S. Defense Department sources, 10 out of 31 promised Abrams tanks will arrive in Ukraine in mid-September, Politico reported on Aug. 31.

https://kyivindependent.com/politico-10-abrams-tanks-to-arrive-by-mid-september/

blueshoes · 09/09/2023 21:57

Ah, thanks Ducks Smile

RedToothBrush · 09/09/2023 23:32

The fuel shortage in Russia has long been predicted.

As was stuff along the lines of inability to car out repairs due to lack of parts

War monitor at warmonitor3
Noticeably Russian forces are moving their self propelled artillery units closer to the frontlines due to inability to replace worn barrels.

Drones are having a field day on the southern frontline.