Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

[MagicFox]

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

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UNITED24 Media Telegram

British Prime Minister Sunak will discuss ways to bypass the Russian blockade of Ukraine in the Black Sea at the G20 summit, — Reuters with reference to a government official.

Ukraine submitted to Türkiye a proposal to restore the operation of the "grain corridor" without Russia, as there are no restrictions for vessels passing through the corridor through the territorial waters of Romania, Bulgaria, as well as Türkiye, — Ambassador of Ukraine to Türkiye Vasyl Bodnar

President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, recently held talks with the leader of the UAE, where one of the topics discussed was the export of sanctioned goods from the Persian Gulf country to Russia, as reported by Bloomberg.
In the past 18 months, the UAE has witnessed a significant uptick in imports of technology products, especially semiconductors and advanced electronics from Europe and the United States. Ukraine's allies have imposed bans on exporting many such goods to Russia, concerned about their potential use for military purposes.
The EU has already imposed sanctions on several organizations registered in the UAE, accusing them of providing direct support to the Russian defense industry.

Cuba arrested 17 people for trafficking young people to participate in hostilities on the side of Russia in Ukraine, — a colonel of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Cuba.
They face from 30 years of imprisonment to execution.

A project for the construction of a Ronald McDonald House in Kyiv has been introduced.
This house is planned to be situated within the premises of the Ohmatdyt Children's Hospital. The project has been developed by the ZIKZAK Architects team, and it is noteworthy that the architects have made an effort to align the design with the style of local buildings. Ronald McDonald Houses are known for providing accommodations and support to families with children undergoing medical treatment, and this project aims to serve a similar purpose in Kyiv.

Russian priests conducted an aerial blessing by using a helicopter to sprinkle a military town in the Kaluga region with 100 liters of holy water.

A federal customs service is on fire in Moscow.

The picture of the holy man and his cross, the big tank of holy water, the hole in the helicopter floor. That is funny to me. May god have mercy on my soul.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

NATO General Stoltenberg speaks on Ukraine offensive.
“You can’t sit here in Brussels, at NATO headquarters or EU headquarters, and tell them exactly how they should fight.”

A car carrying two FSB officers and military personnel who tortured Ukrainians explodes in the temporarily occupied Oleshky, Kherson region
As a result of the explosion, one FSB officer died on the spot, the other was in intensive care in a serious condition. Three Russian soldiers accompanying the car were injured.

💥In Bryansk, a drone attacked one of Russia's largest microelectronics plants, Kremniy EL, which produces components for the Iskander and Pantsir systems.
The Russians claim that they jammed the drone and it fell, causing the fire. According to the governor, the fire has already been extinguished.

A woman set fire to a military enlistment office in St. Petersburg, then began throwing stones through the windows and filming it.
She was, of course, quickly arrested.

A group of Chinese bloggers illegally arrive in the temporarily occupied Mariupol - the Foreign Ministry responds by initiating a ban on entry to Ukraine for all "touring" Chinese.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nikolenko also posted a video of Chinese "opera singer" Wang Fan performing the song "Katyusha" (a song of the Soviet army) on the ruins of the Mariupol drama theater, where the Russian army killed more than 600 innocent people.

May God have mercy on the souls of these 'holy men' blessing genocide!
And yes you're completely right it looks ludicrous!

The losses are becoming jaw dropping. Nearly 70 APV's& vehicles, 23 tanks!! and 31 artillery. And 640 dead men who would be alive if not for Putin.

I have no idea whether these figures are hits, disabled or destroyed. But Russia's artillery will get to a tipping point if these are at least a healthy mix of disabled plus destroyed in these numbers. Then it is game over for Russia. It will not defend its positions without artillery. One day drones will scale back the part artillery plays but that is for future wars not this one.

There are some not-shabby, sensible analysts who think that Russia -has- already lost, though it may take a couple of years for it to play out.

I sincerely hope they are right.

This is probably a really stupid question so apologies, but even if Russia loses in the sense of having all its forces inside Ukraine destroyed or forced to withdraw, what’s to stop it continuing to terrorise Ukraine by continued drone attacks across the country?

I'm guessing .... but in theory nothing and this might happen. But the political ramifications within Russia will be considerable if they do lose. They are far weaker economically and on the world stage than before they undertook this invasion and at some point they're going to want to rebuild both economic and political capital. At that point they may decide that they need goodwill and stop it.

In the long run I personally think that they will ramp up the hybrid war, try to interfere even more in Western politics and eventually march again, but at least for a time there will be some peace .... and Ukraine and Poland and the Eastern European countries will be increasing their military for quite some time to come.

....some of the people who have studied all this in much more depth will have much more of a clue...

@DancesWithDucks, could you post some links of the analysts you mentioned?

I'm quietly hopeful that is the case (Russia is suffering from long term supply line attrition), but I am not an expert.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-7-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 7 and made further gains on both sectors of the front.
• US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Director of Analysis Trent Maul stated that there is a “realistic possibility” that Ukrainian forces will break through the entire Russian defense in southern Ukraine by the end of 2023, while a Ukrainian source suggested that upcoming Russian defensive positions are weaker than those Ukrainian forces have previously breached.
• Ukrainian forces are making tactical gains and successfully attriting defending Russian forces and ISW continues to assess Ukraine’s counteroffensive may achieve operational successes in 2023, but subsequent series of Russian defensive positions still pose significant challenges for Ukrainian forces and may in sections be strongly held.
• Russian forces conducted another large-scale Shahed-136/131 drone attack against Sumy and Odesa oblasts overnight on September 6-7.
• Moscow Oblast authorities detained the commander of the 1st Special Purpose Air and Missile Defense Army on bribery and corruption charges amidst continued and escalating drone attacks on Moscow.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut direction, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area but did not make any confirmed advances on September 7.

In the meantime, I assume Ukraine will ramp up its air defence.

This is the one I can find - I fear that I have not bookmarked the others.

I rate James Rands highly, mentioned him a few days ago but been following him for months - he's a philosophy graduate (so no slouch at all in the brains dept) and ex-military. Trent 'Tyres' Telenko quotes him occasionally. He has a knack for explaining things in a simple way that is understandable but clearly a lot of training underlies his explanations. Unfortunately Twitter sometimes scrambles his threads.

https://twitter.com/james_rands/status/1696240700470267924

As I say, I can't offhand find the others but some of the more respected anaylsts like Phillips P. O'Brien have dropped hints that the Russia invasion's future doesn't look rosy.

When I come across the others again who've said it more openly, I'll book mark 'em

@blueshoes

In the meantime, I assume Ukraine will ramp up its air defence.

That’s been WIP for some time, if you look at pretty much every announcement of weapons being donated you’ll find somewhere in the alphabet soup there will be a anti-aircraft gun system, a SAM system, radar system and/or reloads of ordnance, from old stuff such as Sea Sparrow and Hawk through to Patriot and IRIS-T.

It’s a fair bet the much lauded F-16s when delivered are initially at least going to be used in mainly (but not exclusively) an Air Defence role rather than for ground attack.

There's a fair bit of air defense going in now to try to build up to minimise the attacks on winter infrastructure

Thanks for your input on air defence, notimagain and Ducks. Recent weather has been quite warm but I am sickened by the anticipation of an approaching long winter for Ukraine in the cold and dark. Glad Ukr are preparing for this and stocking up on air defence. Russia is so depressingly predictable.

Am I justified in being worried about the Slovakian elections? I have been wondering for a couple of months now, and it seems to be becoming a more overt cause of concern.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/05/slovakia-elections-robert-fico-ukraine-russia

Adjacent but have you heard that Saudi and the US are in talks about security guarantees in return for re-establishing relations? Interesting

Doing a brief root around in the Russosphere I have to say that for a group that is said to be being wound up there's a lot of Wagner and Wagner-aligned 'stuff' still being pushed out. It might of course be a couple of guys who can't say no to stopping. Still, there are likes, replies and so on.

Meanwhile, this statement summed up an attitude.

Граница России, ни где не заканчивается.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1700265079206531508 this young man has now been arrested

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1700278646085153175 The US to send ATACMS to Ukraine for the first time,they appear to have found some down the back of the sofa

That's excellent news if confirmed. It's probably part of a deal to get Germany to supply the Taurus missile, just as Germany wouldn't authorize the transfer of the Leopards until the US agreed to supply Abrams tanks.

Don't believe the undiscovered inventory bit. Weapons like those are counted on a regular basis, and they don't fit down the back of the sofa. They also require periodic maintenance.

Given the tide is turning in favour of Ukraine, I wonder how the election held today is going to be effected?

Very little I'd imagine. Armed Russian soldiers are going door to door and making people vote while they watch.