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Ukraine Invasion: Part 43

992 replies

MagicFox · 08/07/2023 11:10

With thanks as usual to everyone!

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335
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/08/2023 21:32

Ijsbeer is Dutch for Polar Bear. Think several other countries call 'em icebears too.

Bear studies sounds a good hobby! I was told that Grizzlies are certainly dangerous, but not in the same league as polar bears ... is that right?

DancesWithDucks · 01/08/2023 21:32

test

Greenshake · 01/08/2023 21:47

Test working!

Chatillon · 01/08/2023 22:03

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/08/2023 21:32

Ijsbeer is Dutch for Polar Bear. Think several other countries call 'em icebears too.

Bear studies sounds a good hobby! I was told that Grizzlies are certainly dangerous, but not in the same league as polar bears ... is that right?

David Attenborough said the most important thing we should do is not to waste.

Bears are very wasteful when they eat humans. They rip off your bum cheeks then your face cheeks and leave the rest. Not a nice way to go.

In order of nastiness I believe it is the North American Black Bear, Polar Bear and Grizzly (Brown) Bear. Panda's and the rest are chilled and Koala's are not bears at all.

Surplus2requirements · 01/08/2023 22:03

To all the regulars here I want to say thank you. I've searched all over the Internet and I've not found a more reliable and consistent source of information than this series of threads.
I've rarely got much to add but read avidly and in some small way taken what I've learned here to tackle the pro Russian propaganda in my own small corner of the Internet.
In doing so I've connected with a Brit relief volunteer who has been working in Ukraine since 2020 and has felt unable to leave since the full scale invasion and we're now exploring ways the forum I moderate can help on the ground.
All thanks to a prolific Russian propagandist troll and the knowledge and insight gained from the good people here.

Looking at you @DancesWithDucks

mids2019 · 01/08/2023 22:23

Do drone attacks against Moscow buildings potentially containing civilians work?

What military advantage do the drones give unless specifically targeted at military control centres in the capital?

I just don't like the optics of flying vehicles hitting financial buildings....

jgw1 · 01/08/2023 22:28

mids2019 · 01/08/2023 22:23

Do drone attacks against Moscow buildings potentially containing civilians work?

What military advantage do the drones give unless specifically targeted at military control centres in the capital?

I just don't like the optics of flying vehicles hitting financial buildings....

I wonder if the aim is to unsettle those who live in Moscow and reduce support for the Russian government, more than degrading military capacity.

Chatillon · 01/08/2023 22:28

I read on CNN that they were buildings holding government departments hosting anything from cyber organisations to treasury functions.

TheABC · 01/08/2023 22:31

@mids2019, psycops, I believe although the newspapers are reporting the attacks to be aimed at the Ministry of Defence and other "non-civilian buildings."

At the end of the day, Russia started this war, Russia deliberately targeted schools, hospitals, shopping centres and maternity wards and Russia has the means to end the war in a matter of hours by withdrawing.

So, I'm not that concerned about the optics of a few smashed floors in Moscow; if anything it might focus the minds of the people who live there on the fact their leaders are prosecuting a brutal war.

TheABC · 01/08/2023 22:34

Trent Telenko's latest tweet on the damage to the Russian rail bridge of Chonhar and why it matters (logistics).

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1686437239708930066?t=aUNlstCgwmySrguy2fQ_HA&s=19

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1686437239708930066?s=19&t=aUNlstCgwmySrguy2fQ_HA

Surplus2requirements · 01/08/2023 22:34

Chatillon · 01/08/2023 22:28

I read on CNN that they were buildings holding government departments hosting anything from cyber organisations to treasury functions.

This is my take on it as well, while the effect on government infrastructure may be minimal it's arguably legitimate targets with the added bonus of reminding Muscovites that the war isn't an abstract concept that doesn't effect them.

mids2019 · 01/08/2023 23:40

I can see the point of showing Muscovites that they are indeed at war but won't action like this muster support for Putin in that the populace feel they are under 'attack' and the action of the Russian army is part of the 'defence'. I suppose there is the debate about what constitutes a legitimate military target and defence department buildings may be such?

I suppose if we had the hypothetical situation where drones were striking targets in London or Washington then I expect people would demand a response?

Surplus2requirements · 02/08/2023 00:09

mids2019 · 01/08/2023 23:40

I can see the point of showing Muscovites that they are indeed at war but won't action like this muster support for Putin in that the populace feel they are under 'attack' and the action of the Russian army is part of the 'defence'. I suppose there is the debate about what constitutes a legitimate military target and defence department buildings may be such?

I suppose if we had the hypothetical situation where drones were striking targets in London or Washington then I expect people would demand a response?

Ther ultimate response would be a full scale invasion in defence of such attacks...which puts the Kremlin is a slightly awkward position.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/08/2023 08:30

mids2019 · 01/08/2023 23:40

I can see the point of showing Muscovites that they are indeed at war but won't action like this muster support for Putin in that the populace feel they are under 'attack' and the action of the Russian army is part of the 'defence'. I suppose there is the debate about what constitutes a legitimate military target and defence department buildings may be such?

I suppose if we had the hypothetical situation where drones were striking targets in London or Washington then I expect people would demand a response?

I have the impression that Russians (certainly the captured Russian soldiers' comments) already think they are engaged in a war of defense. Literally, that they are defending the motherland.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/08/2023 08:36

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-1-2023

Key Takeaways:

  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused Ukraine of attempting to attack two Black Sea Fleet patrol boats with unmanned semi-submersibles on August 1.
  • Likely Ukrainian actors conducted another drone strike on Moscow City in the early hours of August 1.
  • The Russian MoD continues to posture Gerasimov as an effective and involved overall theater commander in Ukraine.
  • Lukashenko may have signaled his intent to use the Wagner Group to create a foundation for an unspecified Belarusian “contract army.”
  • Two Belarusian helicopters reportedly violated Polish airspace on August 1.
  • Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on August 1.
  • Russian companies not under Western sanctions continue to recruit volunteers to fight in the war in Ukraine.
  • Iran is pursuing the construction of drone factories in Belarus and Russia, which will help Russia acquire Iranian drones more readily and provide Iran with numerous economic and military benefits.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 1 and made advances in certain areas.
  • Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 1 and advanced near Kreminna and Bakhmut.
  • The Russian Cabinet of Ministers granted Russian volunteer fighters and Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic (DNR and LNR) militia fighters (opolcheniye) veteran status on August 1.
  • Russian occupation authorities continue to deport children from occupied regions of Ukraine to Russia under the guise of education and rehabilitation programs.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/08/2023 08:38

ISW Extra

Iran is pursuing the construction of drone factories in Belarus and Russia, which will help Russia acquire Iranian drones more readily and provide Iran with numerous economic and military benefits. (NOTE: This text also appeared in the Critical Threats Project (CTP)’s August 1 Iran Update)

Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri called for greater defense industry cooperation between Iran and Belarus during a meeting with Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin in Tehran on August 1.[29]

Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani signed a military cooperation agreement with Khrenin on July 31.[30] CTP assessed that Ashtiani and Khrenin may have discussed establishing Shahed kamikaze drone factories in Belarus to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[31]

Ukraine claimed in May 2023 that Iranian engineers are exploring how to convert factories in Gomel, Belarus into drone production facilities.[32] The Biden administration revealed in June that Iran is helping Russia build a drone manufacturing factory in Yelabuga, Tatarstan, Russia.[33] Iran opened an Ababil-2 drone factory in Dushanbe, Tajikistan in May 2022. Bagheri notably attended the opening ceremony of this factory.[34] The production of Iranian drones in Belarus and Russia will benefit both Russia and Iran:

  • Russia will benefit by acquiring Iranian drones for its invasion of Ukraine more readily. Israeli and Ukrainian media have noted that the construction of an Iranian drone factory in Belarus would alleviate the “logistical problems” Russia faces in transporting Iranian drones from Iran to Russia via the Middle East.[35] The Biden administration published a map in June showing Iranian drone transfers from Iran to Russia through the Caspian Sea.[36]
  • Iran will benefit by receiving revenue for the Iranian economy. The British Secret Intelligence Service revealed in July that Iran seeks to acquire cash from Russia in return for Iranian drones.[37] Iran is currently facing critical economic conditions, with the value of the rial surpassing 500,000 rials to one US dollar on August 1.[38] The Iran Statistical Center reported on July 25 that Iran’s inflation rate is approximately 47.5 percent.[39]
  • Russia can also benefit Iran's military. Western media speculated in late 2022 that Iran might receive Russian Su-35 fighter jets in return for supplying Russia with drones.[40] Iranian military officials have increasingly expressed skepticism at receiving Su-35s in recent months, however.[41] Western media reported in March that Russia provided Iran with advanced surveillance software and cyber weapons in exchange for drones.[42] A high-ranking Israeli military official separately expressed concern in June that Russia is providing Iran with Western weapons captured in Ukraine.[43]

Iran’s close cooperation with Belarus and Russia may stem, in part, because Iran has signed long-term strategic agreements with these countries. The graphic below depicts which countries Iran has signed or is pursuing cooperation agreements with.

[mostly my bolding.

Inflation at 47% !!!]

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/08/2023 08:42

Iran

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/08/2023 12:38

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Black Sea ships bound for Ukraine stop, turn around near Danube Delta.
The six Black Sea vessels which previously headed toward Ukrainian ports have turned around or stopped near the Danube Delta, based on naval tracking data.

⚡️Uncertainties surround https://kyivindependent.com/uncertainties-surround-f-16-training-as-ukrainian-pilots-prepare-to-start/ anticipated F-16 training.
US officials are waiting on European leaders to submit a definitive plan for F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots, which the US must authorize, CNN reported on Aug. 1.

⚡️Politico: Pentagon expects Ukraine's counteroffensive https://kyivindependent.com/politico-pentagon-expects-ukraines-counteroffensive-to-continue-through-fall/* to continue through fall and possibly into the winter, *Politico reported on Aug. 1, citing the Pentagon officials.
Politico also reported that the U.S. is preparing another military aid package for Ukraine, likely to be presented early next week.

⚡️Defense Ministry: Belarusian helicopters violate Polish airspace. https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-belarusian-helicopters-violate-polish-airspace/

⚡️UN condemns https://kyivindependent.com/un-condemns-drone-attacks-on-civilian-facilities-in-moscow/ drone attacks on civilian facilities in Moscow.

⚡️Military intelligence: Crimean residents conduct 'systematic' sabotage https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-2/**against Russian bases.
To suppress the dissent, Russia is targeting any "suspicious" figures who could be involved in such incidents, using mass detentions and violence, the intelligence said.

⚡️Explosion reported https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-reported-near-sevastopol/ near occupied Sevastopol.

Ukraine war latest: More explosions reported in occupied Crimea https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-aug-1/

⚡️Defense Ministry: Russia concentrating attacks in Kupiansk, Lyman, Svatove directions https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-russia-concentrating-attacks-in-kupiansk-lyman-svatove-directions/

⚡️General Staff: Russia attempts unsuccessful counter-attacks near Klishchiivka, Staromaiorske https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-11/

⚡️Monitoring group: Wagner https://kyivindependent.com/monitoring-group-wagner-using-military-storage-facilities-in-belarus/ using military storage facilities in Belarus.

⚡️Monitoring group: Wagner’s 14th convoy arrives in Belarus https://kyivindependent.com/monitoring-group-wagners-14th-convoy-arrives-in-belarus/.

⚡️Ukraine summons Polish ambassador (https://kyivindependent.comhttps://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-summons-polish-ambassador-over-presidential-aides-call-to-start-appreciating-polands-help/ over presidential aide's call to 'start appreciating' Poland's help. [something of a squabble, I wont post all the details]

⚡️US delivers military aid to Moldova https://kyivindependent.com/moldova-receives-us-military-aid/ as part of the modernization process of the Moldovan military, the U.S. Embassy in Moldova and the country's Defense Ministry announced on Aug. 1.

Exclusive: New insights point to Hungary’s collaboration with Moscow on transfer of Ukrainian POWs (https://kyivindependent.com/exclusive-new-insights-point-to-hungarys-collaboration-with-moscow-on-transfer-of-ukrainian-pows/

⚡️SBU detains alleged spy https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-detains-alleged-spy-in-mykolaiv/ in Mykolaiv for passing information to FSB-connected blogger.

⚡️Transparency International: 'Suspicious' companies winning https://kyivindependent.com/transparency-international-reconstruction-of-irpin-carried-out-by-suspicious-companies/) contracts to reconstruct Irpin.
The financing of the reconstruction of Irpin is "opaque", according to the DOZORRO project team of Transparency International Ukraine. In April 2022, the total costs of reconstruction was estimated at $1 billion dollars. [at the moment the Kyiv Independent is highlighting a lot of corruption]

Lawmaker Oleksandr Ponomariov's companies in occupied Berdiansk supplied fuel-oil materials to Russian forces and transferred money to Russia, according to RFE/RL’s program Schemes. https://kyivindependent.com/investigative-stories-from-ukraine-lawmakers-collaborate-with-russian-forces-in-occupied-zaporizhzhia-oblast/

⚡️Dnipropetrovsk Oblast military enlistment head suspected of illicit enrichment https://kyivindependent.com/dnipropetrovsk-oblast-military-enlistment-head-suspected-of-illicit-enrichment/

⚡️Ukrainians whose home was destroyed by war can now apply for compensation online https://kyivindependent.com/infrastructure-minister-ukrainians-whose-home-was-destroyed-by-war-can-now-apply-for-compensation-online/

⚡️UNESCO: 274 cultural sites damaged https://kyivindependent.com/unesco/ in Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

⚡️Soviet coat of arms removed https://kyivindependent.com/soviet-coat-of-arms-removed-from-kyivs-motherland-statue/ from Kyiv's Motherland Monument.

Endless Russian assaults near Kreminna test Ukraine’s defenses https://kyivindependent.com/endless-russian-assaults-near-kreminna-test-ukraines-defenses/ Soldiers who spoke with the Kyiv Independent said that despite constant assaults, Russian troops have only advanced about 500 meters over the past two months – the distance of roughly five football fields.
The soldiers with the 63rd brigade, stationed here, say it has been a challenge to hold on with very few resources – an ongoing problem that has only worsened with time.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
HIGHLIGHTS FOR AUG 2:
■ Strikes up on both sides
■ Troop & equipment losses above 7-day average
■ Double-digit artillery, vehicle & drone losses
■ Poternet: identified KIA now exceed 61.4k

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
DancesWithDucks · 02/08/2023 12:58

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Three foreign ships entered the Ukrainian port of Izmail for the first time after Russia's withdrawal from the grain agreement.

The US officially invited the new Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Washington, — Reuters.

The USA restricts the visa-free regime for citizens of Hungary.
The formal reason is the Hungarian government's implementation of a simplified process for issuing almost 1 million passports without proper verification from 2011 to 2020.

Russia's use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine will be considered an attack on NATO, given Ukraine's proximity to the Alliance's territory, — US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham

Any attack by the "Wagner" mercenaries on Poland will be regarded as an attack by Russia, said Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the permanent representative of the United States to the United Nations.

The United States does not see a threat from the Wagner group's mercenaries to NATO, said the spokesman for the US National Security Council, John Kirby

Resistance between the occupying contingent and pro-Ukrainian civilians is growing in the temporarily occupied Crimea — the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine. Most of the detained and arrested are representatives of the Crimean Tatar people.

🇮🇸 The Icelandic embassy in Moscow has now suspended all operations.
The flag was removed from the flagpole, the signboards dismantled, and the staff packed up offices on Sunday.

When asked if he would remove his pro-Ukrainian cover from his Facebook profile, Bulgaria's defense minister Tagarev said yes, when Ukraine gets back all its territories.

❗️The first ever case of the transfer of small arms confiscated by the police of the city of Miami to Ukraine — 101 units

Since the beginning of the war, up to 50,000 Ukrainians have lost one or more limbs, — WSJ.
These figures are based on information from the government and medical institutions, although the actual figure may be higher because the prosthetics process takes a long time.
At the beginning of the war, the main causes of amputations were wounds received during artillery and rocket attacks. Many people are now injured by landmines planted along the front line.

The USA has imposed sanctions against almost the entire top management of the Republika Srpska, led by Milorad Dodik, — the Ministry of Finance reports.
The representative of the RS in the Presidium of Bosnia, Željka Cvijanović, who is the collective president, prime minister, speaker of the parliament, and minister of justice, was also blacklisted. All of them are accused of undermining the state system of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which territorially includes the state entity Republika Srpska.
Regional experts believe that the US sanctions are not only aimed at killing Milorad Dodik as a politician but also send a signal to Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, who is expected to distance himself from the RS leadership clearly.

🎗The “Yellow Ribbon” partisan movement has launched a campaign in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.
To take part, you need to write a patriotic slogan on tennis balls and scatter them on the streets of your temporarily occupied city or village.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
DancesWithDucks · 02/08/2023 13:07

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Erdogan and Putin agree on Putin's visit to Turkey - Erdogan's office.

Reuters writes that the port of Izmail on the Danube coast was seriously damaged by a drone attack overnight. The agency's sources say it was the main target of the attack.
It should be noted that the port of Izmail is also 150 meters from Romania, which is a NATO country.

🇺🇸🇹🇼 The White House wants to finance arms for Taiwan with money from Ukraine aid, The Financial Times reports www.ft.com/content/9807f021-a7db-4357-8ea2-ed05cbf4ba05
Joe Biden wants to ask Congress to speed up arms shipments to Taiwan amid a growing threat from China.
Biden recently ordered $345 million in military aid to Taiwan, including man-portable air defense systems, firearms, and intelligence equipment.

🔥 Ukrainian troops attacked Russian units on Dzharylgach Island. Five HIMARS missiles managed to destroy dozens of occupants and equipment.

Yesterday, in St. Petersburg, a man threw a Molotov cocktail at the door of a military registration and enlistment office.

Unknown persons set fire to a military enlistment office in Ulan-Ude, Russia.

Russian telegram channels report explosions in Bryansk, Russia

Richard Moore, head of the British foreign intelligence service MI6, gave an interview https://www.politico.eu/article/007-things-the-chief-of-mi6-told-politico/ to Politico.
He said that there were disputes and quarrels among Iranian leaders over the supply of drones to Russia.
Moore positively assessed the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine, noting that over the past month, Kyiv has regained more territory than the Russians captured in a year. He attributed the slow advance to the cautiousness of Ukrainian troops.
Moore acknowledged that Western countries do not want to "humiliate" Putin, but are confident that he must withdraw from Ukraine.

Lukashenko admits to lying about the desire of Wagner mercenaries to invade Poland.
According to him, he "joked" about the intentions of Russian mercenaries who moved to Belarus after the failed coup in Russia to go "on an excursion to Rzeszow."

The result of a joint project to purchase drones by the General Staff and the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine.
The project has been running for some time, but the results are only available for these 6 weeks, so the actual results may be higher.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
MMBaranova · 02/08/2023 13:09

Family in Dnipro were close to a Russian strike on a residential building. That’s my grandmother.

Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow buildings are against administrative targets. If jamming makes them hit somewhere else, that’s a pity. A real, real pity.

Shrug.

DancesWithDucks · 02/08/2023 13:11

are your family and grandmother alright, @MMBaranova ?

MMBaranova · 02/08/2023 13:22

Russia B.

I’m looking at Belarus a lot. Strange as it is to type this, Russia is a less repressive state. However, it’s larger with much more going on, and reported, and more chaotic. Belarus is a nascent kingdom, trying to steer a course that is independent of but aligned with the big neighbour.

Now we have:

Lukashenko playing a more decisive role and apparently providing some spine while Wagner advanced in the weird escapade as Putin froze.

Drones being built in Belarus etc. and most worrying of all…

Wagner operating there. This adds an erratic, self-important, wild card next to Northern Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland. More could go wrong than right.

If I was the assumed lifetime leader of Belarus, I would’t want this cuckoo in the nest, but what do I know?

MMBaranova · 02/08/2023 13:26

The situation family-wise is fine given there’s a war, apart from one member of the armed forces getting shrapnel wounds, as I mentioned fairly recently, and the condition of the small family unit in occupied Kherson oblast being worse than dire.

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