Ukraine Invasion: Part 43

[MagicFox]

With thanks as usual to everyone!

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Thanks for your reply notimagain, I thought that may be the case but I'm shocked that no one is joining up the dots to ensure that there isn't a huge lag between announcing aircraft will be provided and then deploying them because the lengthy training process hasn't even been started.

I assumed, incorrectly, that the people closest to the decision making centres would have a timescale of when planes may be released, even if that information was not made public. That there would be negotiations behind the scenes to begin training long before an official announcement was made with a view to getting the go ahead for F16's 6 months down the line or whatever.
They're now saying F16's won't be in theatre for another 12 months at the earliest!
I can only hope that they will be training far more than the 8 pilots that have been mentioned and that training on ATACMS systems is happening now and not once Biden has finally made public his decision to send them to Ukraine - because recent history would suggest that he will approve sending them but only after several thousand more innocent lives are lost.

I can only hope that they will be training far more than the 8 pilots that have been mentioned and that training on ATACMS systems is happening now

There's really no training needed for the ATACMS. It's launched from the same M142 vehicles Ukraine has now for launching HIMARS missiles. The fire control system in the vehicle will recognize the missile type automatically and make the necessary adjustments.

@DesdamonasHandkerchief

Agree with a lot of your thoughts..I'm not sure what has really gone on with the timescale here, it seems excessive but I wonder if we will ever really know?

OTOH one problem with the perception of this is that providing any new (to Ukr) aircraft was always going to be much more protracted than some tried to portray it: remember comments, "just send jets, how hard can it be"? ..well the reality is "quite hard".

If by magic in Feb last year there had been a box of unused, unwanted, fully maintained, mid-life standard F-16s kicking around then maybe with immediate US approval they might have been in theatre with trained crews (both aircrew and ground crew) back end of last year..so under a year, and that's absolute best case.

Start scratching around for suitable airframes, training providers and then chuck in a bit of politics and your time scale doesn't improve.

If you want a parallel from history in late 1982/early 83 the RAF decided it needed to top up it's F-4 fighter force by getting a new squadron of refurbished aircraft from the US..

Decision made it took about eighteen months to get the new squadron operational and that was on a type already known and flown by the RAF so there was (almost) nil training needed.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

❗️Russian attempts to retake the recently liberated Urozhaine village in Donetsk Oblast have been unsuccessful.

⚡️ Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba: F-16 fighter jets will be delivered to Ukraine once the training of Ukrainian pilots is completed.

⚡️ Ukrainian pilots are set to undergo F-16 fighter jet training in Denmark starting later this month.

An explosion occurred in Enerhodar during a meeting of "police" leaders, many collaborators were injured.

Bloomberg: The Russian invading army is running out of stocks of some modern weapons. It has to produce them faster.
The Russians are forced to launch missiles as soon as they come off the assembly line. The missile found in June in the northern Sumy region of Ukraine was fired from a Tornado-S multiple launch rocket system. Judging by the markings, the projectile was manufactured on May 19. An unusually short expiration date of September 12 of this year was also indicated.

🇬🇧 The UK Ministry of Defense has signed three contracts worth a total of $115 million to supply air defense equipment to Ukraine.
The largest contract was signed with the Norwegian defense company Kongsberg and involves providing anti-drone systems. Additionally, the agreements cover the CORTEX Typhon system and other air defense equipment, although more detailed information has not been provided yet. These deals were made through the International Fund for Ukraine (IFU), which has raised over £770 million for military support to Ukraine.

The first vessel that used the Ukrainian Black Sea Corridor after the withdrawal of the Russian Federation from the "grain initiative" arrived in Istanbul, Türkiye.
The "Army of Drones" is sending more than 270 Ukrainian Vampire attack drones to the front, Minister of Digital Transformation Fedorov said.
According to him, these are Ukrainian-made copters. They can carry up to 15 kilograms of payload. The military will use them to destroy both armored vehicles and tanks, as well as enemy defense structures, fortifications, or ammunition depots.
Each drone is equipped with a thermal imager to operate effectively at night.

🤔 2,000 people were evacuated from the Moscow City business center after reports of an alleged drone attack. People were also evacuated from the VTB Arena Plaza shopping center.

Bild: Former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has been charged with perjury in a case related to the 2019 political scandal known as the "Ibiza-gate".
The case involves a video from Ibiza where influential Austrian politicians discussed political intrigue with a girl who introduced herself as the niece of a Russian oligarch. If convicted, the ex-chancellor faces up to three years in prison.

At least 11 Russian generals have died since the start of the war, from open-source information. Japanese int says 20 have died. Ukraine located some by tracking their mobile phones.

Some stars above Khortytsia Island, Zaporizhzhia.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Turkey has discussed with Russia the incident with the bulk carrier Şükrü Okan, which was detained by the Russian military last weekend, and warned of the unacceptability of obstructing the movement of ships in the Black Sea.
"After interfering with the vessel's movement, the interlocutors in the Russian Federation were duly warned to avoid similar attempts to escalate tensions in the Black Sea," the Turkish administration added.

❗️Russia mobilizes almost 20 thousand Russians every month, - representative of the GUR.

🇺🇸🇹🇷The United States and its allies are trying to tighten control over compliance with sanctions against Russia in Turkey, which has expanded trade with Russia during the war in Ukraine - WSJ.
According to an unnamed Western diplomat, the United States is in "ongoing dialog with the Turkish government on these issues." He added that the West hopes to "avoid a scenario in which a Turkish company is sanctioned."

🤡The goals of the SMO have basically already been accomplished, because the future Ukraine will never be so aggressive and pro-Western again, — Lukashenko

🥸"When Russian troops stood on the outskirts of Kyiv, Zelensky was sitting in the cellar, he had no troops to defend the capital. I personally saw how some representatives of the Kyiv authorities were already ready to raise their hands in the air", - Lukashenko [funny how these Russian soldiers just turned around and went away isn't it?]

🇵🇱A network of "unprofessional" Russian agents was exposed in Poland. They were supposed to monitor railroads and ports and hide surveillance equipment in military cargo. In March, they were ordered to derail trains carrying weapons to Ukraine.
WP writes that 12 Ukrainians, three Belarusians, and one Russian have been detained in this case. The Ukrainians said during interrogations that their motive was more money than ideology.

Russian media publish the aftermath of a drone strike on the Expocenter building in Moscow.

Military doctors at a frontline hospital removed a mortar shell from a wounded soldier. The sappers had to work before the operation. Judging by the photo of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Medical Command, the shank was in the soldier's shoulder.

A not-insignificant post by Ursula von der Leyden

Ursula von der Leyen
AT vonderleyen

The EU’s gas storage has reached 90%, well ahead of schedule. This will help us be safe this winter. Together, we are weaning ourselves off Russian gas. And we keep working in parallel on more diverse energy supplies for the future.

Clearly people have been working hard to fill the reserves.

Agree, not insignificant at all

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1692597586337685630 statue of Lenin being removed "carefully" in Kazakhstan

This gives me real statue of Saddam Hussain statue vibes.

There is a clip of an interview with a returned Ukrainian POW on Twitter by Anton Gerashenko if anyone wants to look for it. He has put a sensitive warning on it, I didn't think it was appropriate to link here. It's about his treatment when captured but be warned it's not an easy listen

Tobias Ellwood on the relationship between climate and security/defence. We've discussed the role of resources/climate change in the war in Ukraine before. Ellwood points out that Russia is forward thinking here and how NATO needs to work together in light of potential future security issues relating to climate and resources : podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-climate-briefing/id1500769861?i=1000624890903

@Stratosphear can you maybe post the article? No access to the NYT ...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-18-2023

Key Takeaways:

• The Washington Post reported on August 17 that the US intelligence community has assessed that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will fail to reach Melitopol in western Zaporizhia Oblast and will not achieve its principal objective of severing the Russian land bridge to Crimea.
• It is premature to make assessments about the overall success of ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive operations occurring along several lines of advance toward several different apparent objectives.
• Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 18 and have reportedly advanced further near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Kremlin has intensified its effort to increase its long-term control over the Russian information space, threatening the credibility of Russian sources that inform the wider Western coverage of battlefield realities in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Operational Command South Spokesperson Captain First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk challenged Russian claims that Russian authorities have adequately repaired the Chonhar bridge after a Ukrainian strike on August 6.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Aviivdka-Donetsk City line, and in the eastern Donetsk-western Zaporizhia border area on August 18 and advanced in some areas.

extra:
It is unclear from published reports why US intelligence analysts have reportedly concluded that seizing Melitopol is the only way Ukraine can sever the Russian land bridge. ISW has, in fact, assessed that Ukraine has many options for severing critical Russian ground lines of communication along the northern Sea of Azov coast of which the seizure of Melitopol is only one.[3] US Secretary of State Antony Blinken notably offered a diverging opinion from the alleged intelligence assessment on August 15, stating that the prospects for Ukraine’s counteroffensive to make significant “strategic gains” will remain unclear for at least a month or longer.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Denmark, Netherlands confirm https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-netherlands-confirm-receiving-us-approval-to-send-ukraine-f-16-jets/ receiving US approval to send Ukraine F-16 jets.

⚡️ White House: Ukraine to receive F-16 fighter jets after pilots complete training. https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-t/

⚡️ Putin will skip https://kyivindependent.com/putin-o-ordered-by-icc-will-skip-un-general-assembly-in-september/ UN General Assembly in September.

⚡️Washington Post: US intelligence thinks (https://kyivindependent.com/washington-post-us-intelligence-thinks-ukraine-will-fail-to-reach-counteroffensives-key-goal/) Ukraine will fail to reach counteroffensive’s key goal.
The U.S. intelligence assesses that Ukrainian forces will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol in this year’s counteroffensive, the Washington Post reported, citing unnamed sources familiar with the forecast.
If the assessment proves correct, Ukraine will not fulfill its principal goal of cutting off the land bridge that connects Russia to the occupied Crimean peninsula. (as @Stratosphear said)

Counteroffensive progress: expectations vs. reality | This Week in Ukraine Ep. 21

⚡️ Zelensky signs budget bill in line with IMF program. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-law-am/
This step means the implementation of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) 10th "structural beacon", and serves as the basis for the implementation of the 12th "beacon" on better budget predictability, better debt management, and the risk management of state guarantees, Zhelezniak wrote on his Telegram channel.

⚡️ Southern Command: Russia has dispersed its naval forces in the Black Sea between the southeastern coast of Crimea and Novorossiysk in fear of Ukrainian surface drone strikes, Southern Command spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk said on Aug. 18. https://kyivindependent.com/southern-command-russia-disperses-ships-in-fear-of-ukrainian-strikes/

⚡️ General Staff: Russia fails another counterattack at Urozhaine https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russia-fails-another-counterattack-at-urozhaine-ukraine-advances-in-south/ Ukraine advances in south.

⚡️ Media: Russia, Turkey, Qatar https://kyivindependent.com/media-russia-turkey-qatar-prepare-new-agreement-to-replace-grain-deal/**prepare new agreement on grain exports. Now, the two countries and Qatar are jointly working to set up a new deal to replace the previous agreement which has allowed Ukraine to export nearly 33 million metric tons of food via the Black Sea, Bild said.

⚡️ Romania wants to transit 60% of Ukrainian grain. https://kyivindependent.com/romania-wants-to-transit-over-60-of-ukrainian-grain/ Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu said that Romania is working to improve its connecting infrastructure by rail, road, river, and sea, as well as border crossings.

⚡️ Sandu: Moldova to help Ukraine export its grain. https://kyivindependent.com/moldova-to-help-ukraine-export-its-grain/

⚡️ Bulgarian minister: 'We cannot rule out' clash between NATO, Russia in Black Sea. https://kyivindependent.com/bulgarian-minister/

⚡️ WSJ: (https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-turkish-company-run-ghost-fleet-helps-russia-evade-sanctions/)
The U.S. is concerned that Turkey has become a hub for Russian sanctions evasion, including a "ghost fleet" for Russian oil and port calls for Russian vessels carrying weapons and sanctioned goods, the Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 18.
The Turkish company Beks Ship Management, operating dozens of aging oil tankers, participates in a "ghost fleet" of hundreds of vessels that help Russia ship out its oil despite the Western sanctions, the outlet said.

⚡️ Military intelligence: Leadership of occupation 'police' in Enerhodar https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-drone-strike-in-enerhodar-injures/ injured in explosion.
Russian Interior Ministry Colonel Pavlo Chesanov in charge of the Enerhodar's "law enforcement" department, his deputy for operations, the head of the investigation department, and several other senior officers sustained severe injuries, the HUR said, releasing footage of what appears to be a drone strike against the building.

⚡️Russian court liquidates https://kyivindependent.com/sakharov-center-forced-to-close/ major human rights NGO.
The Moscow City Court on Aug. 18 liquidated the Sakharov Center, a non-governmental organization focused on human rights, education, and culture.

⚡️Zelensky signs law to exempt https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-law-exempting-anti-drone-hardware-and-other-related-military-hardware-from-customs-duties-and-vat/ night vision devices from taxes.

⚡️UPDATE: 5 killed, 37 injured https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russian-forces-strike-center-of-chernihiv/ as Russian forces strike center of Chernihiv with missile.

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russia increases propaganda activities https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russia-increases-propaganda-activities-in-occupied-ukrainian-territories/in occupied Ukrainian territories.

⚡️UK court rejects https://kyivindependent.com/u-k-court-rejects-russian-oligarch-eugene-shvidlers-case-to-overturn-sanctions/ Russian businessman's suit to overturn sanctions.

Escape from Kupiansk: How one cop tricked the Russians https://kyivindependent.com/escape-from-kupiansk-how-one-cop-tricked-the-russians/

The Guardian reported on Aug. 19 that convicts returning to Russia as free men after fighting for the Wagner mercenary group in Ukraine have led Russian women to fear increased threats of murder, rape, and domestic violence in the country. https://kyivindependent.com/the-guardian-russian-women-fear-wagner-criminals/ [but it's only women and children at risk and there's very little consequences to domestic violence in Russia, so it's okay]

Ragnar Gudmundsson
AT

WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 19
■&artillery strikes and engagements up
■ Troop losses up but equipment below 7-day average
■ Double-digit artillery & APV losses
■ Also 8 tanks (7-day average+33%)
■ Oryx: No update but 30-day ratio down to x1.6

[essentially 500 killed, 50 land based equipment losses)

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Ukraine has set priorities in military training — offensive tactics and training of commanders, — Reuters citing the head of the EU Special Training Command Andreas Marlow. "Ukrainians are most concerned about the training of non-commissioned officers and non-commissioned officers because professional soldiers have been fighting for a year and a half, many have been killed and wounded, so they need fresh cadres of military leaders," Marlow told reporters.

Some military and officials from the Biden administration have criticized Ukraine for striking occupied Crimea, as they believe it is, at best, a distraction and a waste of resources, writes CNN. [nice of them to help Ukraine run the war eh?]

Russia has declared a "limitation of powers" for Interpol within its borders. The Ministry of Internal Affairs has conveyed that Interpol personnel will no longer have authorization to conduct operational-search activities on Russian soil. However, they will retain the capability to engage with requests, make inquiries, and identify suspects.

Kakhovka HPP is no longer subject to restoration, — Klymenko
"As a result of the Russian terrorist attack, 11 spans of the upper part of the dam were destroyed out of 28. One hundred fifty tons of oil leaked out of engine room #3 of the HPP," the minister said at a meeting with representatives of foreign diplomatic institutions.

[attack on Chernihiv; several dead and many tens injured.]

US extends temporary protected status for Ukrainian refugees until spring 2025

An unknown drone hit the Soltsy military airfield in the Novgorod region of the Russian Federation
Previously, about 10 Tu-22m3 units were located at the base airfield.

North Korea could build Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile with Russia's help, — Reuters
It is the first North Korean ICBM to use a solid propellant, making it easier to use these missiles in wartime.

Jamming stations are being deployed throughout Moscow to combat drones

Live: Ukraine Telegram

⚡️Ukrainian pilots will begin training on F-16 fighter jets in Denmark in late August.
The exercise will involve 11 countries.

Ukrainian fighters have broken through a minefield toward Tokmak, CBS News reports https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-counteroffensive-progress-melitipol-tokmak-crimea-us-f16/#textUS20officials20have20told20CBSthe20southeastern20city20of20Melitopol
A U.S. official tells CBS News that Ukrainian troops have broken through a Russian minefield north of Tokmak and are now engaged in a battle with the first line of Russian defense holding the city.
Tokmak is an important barrier city between Ukrainian troops and the city of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia region.

🧔🏻‍♂️Zelensky announces "powerful things" to strengthen Ukraine for Independence Day on August 24. News for Ukraine is being prepared together with partners in the EU and with those countries "where bilateral cooperation is not enough"

🇺🇦🇸🇪 Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Sweden to agree on strengthening the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Information is circulating online that at the time the missile hit Chernihiv, an exhibition of drones was taking place in the center. [The implication is that someone informed the Russians].

The head of the SBU, Vasyl Malyuk, said that 21 tons of hexogen were used for the October attack on the Kerch Bridge. It was disguised with packing film so that the scanners at the checkpoints did not notice the explosives.
In addition, the SBU bypassed special jammers that jam GPS coordinates.

Some military and officials from the Biden administration have criticized Ukraine for striking occupied Crimea, as they believe it is, at best, a distraction and a waste of resources, writes CNN.

Sounds like they have decided Crimea will be sacrificed in the negotiated settlement they are planning on Ukraines behalf!

From a military point of view, it's a question of timing. The resources being used to attack Russian targets in Crimea don't benefit the counteroffensive directly. Those munitions would be more helpful used against targets in currently occupied Ukraine. Once the land bridge is effectively cut, it will be time to attrit Russian assets in Crimea.

Tokmak is an important barrier city between Ukrainian troops and the city of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia region.

Perhaps more importantly, it's a major road and rail hub the Russians need to supply their forces to the west.

Upon rereading, I realized that I worded that very poorly. Crimea is part of currently occupied Ukraine. What I meant was the region of the land bridge to Crimea was where those munitions would be better employed in the short term. Apologies to anyone who read that literally.

Crucially, from what I can see, Tokmak is the only rail link. There's another road along the coast, but shifting logistics in individual lorries/low-loaders is manpower-intensive. If the rail link between Mariupol and Tokmak can be severed (ideally hitting pointwork if you're going to just hit it without capturing it, it's harder to repair than plain line) then that would deal a huge blow to Russian logistics

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html?unlocked_article_code=BMPhN2sIFEC8MVcP6hlQ1J-O_MuGHvxqDBJETC9cTsgdbMDr-abnT0-tlJFpkqmVdJdpVncB6K3ucvIxk4qxmwkW_f_2gZCAzget1iTPiFs8AzsPVysvEI0gaskVGr_4A907A7U5sx1l0eLmk-YvZRxBFoxf-7UgwMo6LK722Hn8smUEzSfZeEp8QkQiLupmThRPm7Bt-mQIp6M_KIlfuWr-z74MKuK881ypirynAX-gJphKQzQQEAkkNjsJpsml14ggztLIEqcqR5lNQpAfS4sgG8Aa8ec4VQ5OyXBYOMUs42vazdXZi-3NwTybv7UgNBHcIH3GgrxcSMRPgpionfNCW1XwGS7AdFdq&smid=url-share

@Stratosphear please can you share what your ‘personal experience’ is and how that enables you to speculate that Ukraine’s losses are being under reported.