Ukraine Invasion: Part 43

[MagicFox]

With thanks as usual to everyone!

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UNITED24 Media Telegram

During the week of terror against Ukrainian ports, Russia spent more than $280 million, — Forbes.
From July 18 to 24, the occupiers fired 75 rockets and 100 UAVs over Odesa.
To overload the Ukrainian air defense, the Russians combine sea-, air-, and land-based cruise missiles.

Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian sailors were "congratulated" on Fleet Day. Thanks to hackers, Russian sailors, including commanders of the Russian Navy, received messages in Viber, Telegram, and WhatsApp with videos — there were attacks on Russian warships, particularly on the cruiser "Moskva".
The messages contained a "Trojan" program that captures phone information and redirects it to Ukrainian servers. Currently, the flow of information, including confidential information, continues.

Next week, Ukraine will begin negotiations with the United States regarding the agreement on providing security guarantees, — Office of the President of Ukraine.
More than ten countries have joined the Joint Declaration adopted by the leaders of the G7 countries and Ukraine in Vilnius.
With those who supported the declaration, Ukraine will conclude a system of bilateral agreements on specific security guarantees.
"We are already working on bilateral agreements with each of these partners. Next week we start the corresponding negotiations with the United States.
Security guarantees for Ukraine will be specific and long-term obligations, they will be prescribed formats and support mechanisms," said the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak.

The President's Office confirmed the holding of a summit on Ukraine in Saudi Arabia
Earlier, The Wall Street Journal wrote about it with reference to diplomats. Participants include Indonesia, Egypt, Mexico, Brazil, Chile and Zambia. Russia is not invited.

The Belarusian military began joint training with the instructors of the "Wagner" PMC

The commanders of "Azov" will participate in the war, there is no ban, — Commander of the National Guard Pivnenko

❗️31 injured as a result of the Russian attack on Kryvyi Rih [so far]

With the last blow, Kharlan took Ukraine to the semifinals of the World Fencing Championship.
In the 1/4 finals, Ukrainian team beat the USA team with a score of 45:44. At the same time, it was Kharlan who delivered the decisive blow.
Unfortunately, the Ukrainian national team lost to France in the semifinals of the World Fencing Championship. Female fencers will compete for bronze.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Ukraine is preparing to return Crimea by Christmas. Great Britain has begun training special forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for operations on the peninsula, — Sunday Express. [there are unconfirmed rumours this has been going on longer]

🎮 Russia uses video games to spread propaganda. For example, in Minecraft, Russian players reenacted the battle for Soledar in Donetsk region, which the occupiers seized in January.
In Roblox, a user in June created a parade of the Russian Interior Ministry's internal troops to celebrate Russia Day.
The New York Times writes (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/30/technology/russia-propaganda-video-games.html) that some of the materials reflect the views of ordinary Russians, but other examples show state involvement.

Italy's Defense Minister said that the war in Ukraine has "reached a deadlock" and "therefore there may be a political solution that will determine the end of the conflict."

The Crimean bridge was fenced with special anti-sabotage barriers

Seems the photo of the Crimean Bridge barriers may actually have been from Sevastopol harbour in Crimea.

Good article by Lawrence Freedman, free to read

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/putin-running-out-options-ukraine

Excellent article, Ducks, thanks for sharing.

Yes Ducks thanks for all the info and the LF article.

It's a good assessment.
The trick is not just to make sure Russia loses the war, but Ukraine wins the peace. If the country is not rebuilt, you are looking at bombed cities, heavily mined land and a quarter of the population displaced, either internally or abroad. There's also the ongoing problem of corruption. It's not unique to Ukraine <stares hard at our own Government> but it's a consideration when the rebuilding begins and you don't want millions skimmed off instead of being used on the clean-up.

I would love to know what Chinese analysts really think about all this; the Russian invasion has been a massive wake-up call for the West to assess their stockpiles and realise the erosion of their industrial base. If I were China, I'd want that moment to happen the second day after their attack on Taiwan, not before.

Last night, 3 Israeli ships successfully defied Putin's threats, successfully breaking Putin's blockade of Ukraine, arriving safely at the Danube port.
Civilian ships: Ams1, Sahin 2, Yilmaz Kaptan

twitter.com/anno1540/status/1686044198661713921?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

Lol, if anyone can do it, it is Israel. Nerves of steel, I'll give them that.

If the blockade is broken enough, Russia's rhetoric around the Black Sea will just be that, rhetoric, just like the nuclear threats.

"The Israeli ship, spitting on Russian threats, enters the Ukrainian branch of the Danube.

Starting his journey from Ashdod, Israel, he openly indicated his destination as Ukraine and crossed the Black Sea on a direct course.

Ams1 is followed by other vessels that have either anchored or will anchor in the near future on the Danube.

Russians spat in their faces"

Slightly off topic but in the vein of Israel, worth a listen to the latest The Rest is Politics Leading interview with Yuval Noah Harari. Covers the recent protest movement and the dangers posed by the current Government and its actions.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-31-2023

Key Takeaways:

• The Wagner Group may be supplanting the Russian military as the Belarusian military’s key training partner.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely succeeded in recruiting an unknown number of Wagner personnel following Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed rebellion, though Prigozhin ordered remaining Wagner fighters to assemble in Belarus by August 5.
• Prigozhin stated that the Wagner Group stopped recruiting in Russia and claimed that the Wagner Group does not need to recruit more personnel and has sufficient reserves.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made largely boilerplate comments framing the Russian state as adequately supporting long-term force-generation efforts and meeting Russian weapons demand through domestic production and international cooperation.
• Imagery posted on July 30 and 31 visually confirms damage to the Chonhar Bridge following a Ukrainian strike on July 29.
• Kremlin-appointed Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova confirmed on July 31 that Russia has transferred 4.8 million Ukrainians, including over 700,000 children, to the Russian Federation since the beginning of the war, very likely violating the Fourth Geneva Convention.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 31.
• Iran and Belarus are deepening bilateral cooperation over the backdrop of their mutual support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Presidential Administration Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak stated on July 30 that Kyiv and Washington will begin consultations on providing Ukraine “security guarantees” as soon as the week of August 6 – 13.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna and Avdiivka-Donetsk City lines and made claimed gains in Luhansk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Donetsk and western Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks in western Donetsk and western Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin ratified a law on July 31 increasing the fine for mobilized personnel’s or conscripts' failure to arrive at a military registration office after being summoned.

Kremlin-appointed Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova confirmed on July 31 that Russia has transferred 4.8 million Ukrainians, including over 700,000 children, to the Russian Federation since the beginning of the war.[20] In a report on the activities “authorized by the President of the Russian Federation for children’s rights” in 2022, Lvova-Belova claimed that Russia has “received” 4.8 million Ukrainians since February 2022 and noted that the vast majority of the 700,000 children who arrived to Russia did not have parental or guardian supervision.[21] The report carefully frames these activities as humanitarian gestures of goodwill. International humanitarian law, however, defines the forced transfer of civilians to the territory of an occupying power as “deportation.” And the circumstances of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the situation in occupied territories are likely sufficiently coercive to mean that most “transfers” of Ukrainian civilians to Russia meet the threshold of forced deportation, which is prohibited under Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention, regardless of Russia’s claimed motive.[22] ISW continues to assess that Russian authorities are conducting a large-scale campaign to deport Ukrainians to the Russian Federation.[23] [may they ROT]

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️ Washington Post: China restricts https://kyivindependent.com/washington-post-8/ drone exports over Ukraine and military concerns.

⚡️Southern Command: Russian logistics severely impacted https://kyivindependent.com/southern-command-russian-logistics-severely-impacted-by-attacks-on-crimean-bridges/ by attacks on Crimean bridges. On July 30 Humeniuk said that Russia is using amphibious assault ships to ferry equipment across the Kerch Strait since the Crimea Bridge was damaged.

⚡️ Russian media: Drones shot https://kyivindependent.com/drone-strikes-russian-capitals-moscow-city-business-center/ down over Moscow.

⚡️OSINT: https://kyivindependent.com/civilian-vessels-head-to/
At least six civilian ships heading toward Ukrainian ports entered the Black Sea on July 30 despite the Russian blockade, based on naval tracking data.

⚡️General: Russia tries to conduct sabotage raid https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-tries-to-conduct-sabotage-raid-in-chernihiv-oblast/ in Chernihiv Oblast.

Ukraine and Croatia have agreed on using Croatian ports on the Danube River and the Adriatic Sea to export Ukrainian grain, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on July 31. https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-croatia-to-help-export-ukrainian-grain-through-its-ports/

Since the beginning of 2022, Russia has forcibly mobilized from 55,000 to 60,000 men in the occupied territories of Ukraine, military intelligence spokesperson Andrii Cherniak said on July 30. https://kyivindependent.com/intelligence-russia-has-forcibly-mobilized-up-to-60-000-men-in-occupied-territories/ "The occupiers caught people on the street, they came to the few businesses that were still working and forcibly took people away - they simply dressed the people up and sent them to the front." [lovely. They invade Ukrainians, round up the men and force them to fight their own people]

⚡️Media: Western military products worth https://kyivindependent.com/media-5/ billions of dollars flow into Russia despite sanctions.

Ukraine received a grant of $1.25 billion from the U.S. through the Multi-Donor Trust Fund of the World Bank, the Finance Ministry announced on July 31. https://kyivindependent.com/finance-ministry-ukraine-receives-1-25-billion-from-us-in-grants/

⚡️MP: Military's medical forces command https://kyivindependent.com/mp-militarys-medical-command-did-not-purchase-any-first-aid-kits-in-2023/ did not purchase any first aid kits in 2023. Ukrainian outlet http://Liga.net noted that the Parliament's National Security Committee, in which Bobrovska sits, launched an examination of military medical supplies due to social media reports from July 20 about the poor quality of tourniquets provided to the troops.

Ukraine's Defense Ministry and the Turkish company Baykar signed a contract on July 31 to build a service center for the repair and maintenance of combat drones. https://kyivindependent.com/turkeys-baykar-to-open-service-center-for-drones-in-ukraine/

The U.K. now faces the issue that blacklisting Wagner would amount to an official arm of the Russian government having the same status as groups such as Islamic State and al-Qaeda, the Times reported on July 30. https://kyivindependent.com/the-times-uk-attempt-to-designate-wagner-a-terrorist-group-complicated-by-putins-reaction-to-rebellion/ [I fail to see the problem here]

⚡️Ukraine's birth rate drops https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-birth-rate-drops-by-28/ by 28%.

⚡️Minister: Croatia allocates https://kyivindependent.com/minister-croatia-allocates-1-million-euros-for-demining-in-ukraine/**1 million euros for demining in Ukraine.

⚡️Minister: Almost all thermal power stations https://kyivindependent.com/minister-100-of-heat-generation-facilities-damaged-by-russia-repaired/ damaged by Russia repaired. The authorities are currently working on providing backup capacities in case of an emergency, the minister added. Kubrakov also said that over 65% of more than 700 heat supply networks damaged by Russian attacks have also been repaired.

⚡️Ministry: Ukraine allocates $270 million to energy https://kyivindependent.com/ministry-ukraine-allocates/**infrastructure before winter.

⚡️Media: Russian court seizes assets https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-court-seizes-assets-of-ukraines-oligarch-akhmetov/ of Ukraine's oligarch Akhmetov. According to the Investigative Committee of Russia, Akhmetov has allegedly used the money from one of Metinvest Eurasia’s accounts to finance the Ukrainian forces, including the Azov Regiment.

12 killed, over 100 injured https://kyivindependent.com/attacks-10/in Russian attacks over past day.

⚡️ Update: 6 killed, 75 injured in Russian missile strike (https://kyivindependent.com/update-6-killed-75-injured-in-russian-missile-strike-against-kryvyi-rih/)against Kryvyi Rih.

Update: 4 killed, 17 injured in Russian strikes https://kyivindependent.com/update-6-killed-75-injured-in-russian-missile-strike-against-kryvyi-rih/on Kherson. Governor Serhii Lysak said that, as of 5:30 p.m. local time, 75 people were injured, including six children. Twenty-two people have been hospitalized and two are in serious condition.

It's useful to see Oryx' comparison of losses but I hate seeing the Ukr figures! I wonder if they are total write-offs or if some are repairable, anyone know?

Ragnar Gudmundsson
HIGHLIGHTS FOR AUG 1: ■ Increased combat engagements ■ Troop & equipment losses above 7-day average ■ Double-digit vehicle, artillery, APV & drone losses ■ Oryx: 42:24/added to records

UNITED24 Media Telegram

💥 At night, drones attacked the capital of the Russian Federation, one of them hit the "Moscow City" business center for the second time and damaged the facade on the 21st floor.
It is noted that the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation is located on the 21st floor of the tower of the building attacked by the drone.

The US concluded agreements with Bulgaria and South Korea on the supply of 155-mm shells to Ukraine, — Financial Times.
Sources of the publication in the American government also reported that the administration of Joe Biden is currently conducting similar negotiations with Japan. [I wonder what the details are. S Korea has a LOT of shells that so far they have been reluctant to provide]

After withdrawing from the grain agreement, Russia destroyed 180,000 tons of Ukrainian grain, — the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.
"Nine days after the start [end?] of the grain initiative, Russian troops damaged 26 port infrastructure facilities, five civilian ships and destroyed 180,000 tons of Ukrainian grain during shelling," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine reported.

The Ukrainian authorities can independently choose the targets for strikes on the Russian Federation, said the head of the press service of the US State Department, Matthew Miller, commenting on the Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow.

Croatian Foreign Minister Gordan Grlić Radman arrived in Ukraine and started his visit from Hostomel. [I'm so tempted to pronounce his name Garlic]

The Parliament of Moldova ratified the agreement between Ukraine and Moldova on constructing a bridge across the Dniester, connecting the border Moldovan village of Cosăuți and the Ukrainian city of Yampil.
According to the project, the government of Ukraine will finance the technical design of the bridge, including construction and the structure of the necessary infrastructure on its territory, and the government of Moldova — on its territory.

😭 A 10-year-old child was among the dead in Kryvyi Rih

The number of victims in Kryvyi Rih has increased to 73, including eight children, reported the head of the City Military Administration Vilkul

Mexico's participation in the search for a peaceful settlement of the war in Ukraine at the planned summit in Saudi Arabia is possible only with the participation of both warring parties, the country's president, Manuel López Obrador, said.

This is what the Chongar Bridge (Crimea) looks like now, which was struck by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on July 29.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The Israeli ship Ams1 ignored Russia's "blockade" of the Black Sea and entered the Ukrainian mouth of the Danube, followed by two more ships from Greece and Turkey/Georgia, according (https://twitter.com/auonsson/status/1685960108600078336?s=46&t=hmPdh3epcvbnoUN2TQsSDw) to a representative of the OSINT community, Marcus Johnson.
"The first evidence that Russia cannot stop and search ships in the Black Sea," Bulgarian media outlet Actualno commented (https://www.actualno.com/europe/pyrvi-dokazatelstva-che-rusija-ne-moje-da-spira-i-pretyrsva-korabi-v-cherno-more-news_2025129.html) on the incident.

🇸🇰 Slovakia is to hand over two Zuzana 2 self-propelled artillery systems to Ukraine in early August - they were jointly purchased by three European countries, Dennikn writes (https://e.dennikn.sk/minuta/3500606).
This is a contract for 16 vehicles, which was discussed in October last year

🇨🇳 China has announced (https://www.reuters.com/world/china-curbs-exports-drone-related-equipment-amid-us-tech-tensions-2023-07-31/) a temporary restriction on the export of UAVs, components and equipment for their production. The restrictions will be introduced on September 1 to "protect national security and interests."
The export ban will cover civilian long-range drones weighing more than 7 kg. Exports of such drones will be possible only if a special export license is obtained, which prohibits the use of drones for military purposes.

👨‍👩‍👧‍👦The Ministry of Economy estimates that there are about 6.2 million Ukrainians abroad who left after the outbreak of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war.

Zelensky may come to New York in September to personally present 'formula for peace' during UN General Assembly High-Level Week events - Bloomberg

Ukraine has a plan in case of the assassination of Volodymyr Zelensky, Politico reports (https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraines-plan-volodymyr-zelenskyy-dies-russia-war/).
The speaker of the parliament will assume the duties of the president. In fact, the country will be governed by a so-called council, a collective government that will include the chairman of parliament, the head of the President's Office, the foreign minister, and the defense minister. Ukraine's allies are aware of this plan. [I was wondering about that]

Satellite image of the repair of the Crimean bridge.

Ducks, thanks again for your tireless updates.

Washington Post: China restricts https://kyivindependent.com/washington-post-8/ drone exports over Ukraine and military concerns.

Restrict drone exports to who? Russia uses the commercial Chinese-made DJI drones and so does Ukraine ...

Second that blueshoes. I’m really grateful to Ducks and all other posters for the respect shown and for sharing their knowledge and insights. Glory to Ukraine.

yvw

What the fuck are Belarus playing at!

Firstly to echo other posters a huge thank you to @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar for all you do to glue these threads together.

Without doing what you have done I am pretty certain this long journey of simultaneous threads would not have happened. It would have petered out by May 2022. Posters that have many great things to say, from all different technical backgrounds, with different temperaments, nationalities and life experiences would have been denied a platform to add their voice. I am not going to name them, but we have ex-aircrew, serving and ex-serving military officers, ballistic and artillery experts, professional political commentators, refugee hosts, nuclear physicists, current affairs professionals, fund raisers, etc, etc and last but not least many Ukrainians contributing to these threads.

Collectively, we are more joined up than the Kremlin. Thank you again at @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar for creating the foundations upon which this information set and collaboration can be built.

On a lighter note, I hope you are having some holiday soon and the ducks are well.

p.s. you had a different user name at the start and I have forgotten it, something simple I recall, lower case.

Over to other matters.

What the fuck are Belarus playing at!

I have no idea, but I think now is an opportunity to sort out that little sliver of issues sandwiched between Ukraine and Moldovia. It might be in progress of course.

I meant consecutive @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar not simulataneous. Sorry long day...

Echoing the above….ducks we owe you a huge thank you. These threads are so important and as Chatillon says, the contributions are top notch. I have learnt more here than anywhere else and this is always my information ‘go to’.

Yes @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar thanks

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar
Before that my name had Ijsbeer (Polar Bear) in it named for winter swimming habits.

I never knew until know that is what it stood for. I thought it was some acronym for something like 'I Just Swigged Beer'. Shame on me. Especially as once upon a time I studied our eight species of bear as a hobby. One of my favourite bits of pub quiz trivia is that if you ask someone which bear has the Latin name "Ursus Arctos" they always say 'Polar Bear!' But it is Ursus Maritimus. And you have the rest covered above.......