Ukraine Invasion: Part 43

[MagicFox]

With thanks as usual to everyone!

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To summarise, the Americans estimate:

Ukraine: 70k dead, 100-120k wounded
Russia: 120k dead, 170-180k wounded

Russia has far more reinforcements than Ukraine, but the advantage that Ukraine holds is that its fighters all want to win. They haven't been conscripted into a war in a foreign land that they know nothing about, Ukraine's troops are fighting for the very existence of their homeland.

Thank you @Alstro

@Stratosphear Russia is anyone's guess, though given the numbers in their forces, there's no way they lost that many men when they haven't even deployed that amount to the theatre total.

Can you give the grounds for saying they haven't deployed that amount to the theater?

Statista is well regarded, I know. But in this case they state their source as https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.php?country1=russia&country2=ukraine and global firepower seems to be less well respected (source for statement: Bellingcat https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2018/06/29/ukrainian-president-cites-clickbait-ranking-national-address/ ) Having said that, it might have upped its game since the invasion started, but it's not definitive.

A number of entities claim authoritative loss figures, including Ukraine itself, which vary in the extreme. I suspect that Ukraine's losses are indeed high. When you observe the hints here and there over the months, putting them together it's a sad picture. Russia's seem to be even higher though. Without doubt they are extremely careless of their personnel, from Ukrainian sources.

As @Positivethought says, could you perhaps give the source for your personal impressions?

One of the slightly more reliable sources seems to be AT KilledInUkraine on Twitter, who claim:

At least 2 673 Russian officers have been eliminated by the UAF as of 16 August 2023. Based on publicly available data from Russia. Confirmations are made via funeral notices, obituaries and news sites. Names and sources can be found in the table in our profile. [The BBC said some months ago they consider KilledInUkraine as accurate]

Oryx are also seen as reliable, as they claim only losses (Ru or Ukrainian) they are sure of. But they have said they don't count mass losses of equipment (eg a depot) as the estimates in this case can be deceptive, and ofc they can't claim losses for things they don't see. So they are probably underestimating.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-19-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces launched a missile strike during the day on August 19 targeting Chernihiv City center after carrying out a series of Shahed drone strikes overnight.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on Soltsy airbase in Novgorod Oblast and reportedly damaged strategic aircraft on August 19.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 19, and advanced along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chief of the Russian General Staff and overall theater commander Army General Valery Gerasimov and senior officers at the Southern Military District (SMD) headquarters in Rostov-on-Don on August 19.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is continuing to set conditions to possibly replace Wagner Group forces with MoD-affiliated private military companies (PMCs).
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and advanced in certain areas on August 19.
• Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed a decree on August 17 establishing the Donetsk Higher Combined Arms Command School under the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), likely in an effort to further integrate proxy military formations in occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
• Russian officials continue to deport children from occupied Ukraine to Russia.

Extra:
] A Russian insider source claimed that the fire damaged at least two aircraft and that the Soltsy airbase housed an unspecified number of Tu-22M3 (NATO reporting name Backfire-C) long-range supersonic bombers.[15] The source also claimed that Russian forces moved the undamaged aircraft to Olenya air base, Murmask Oblast.[16]

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Telegraph: China arms https://kyivindependent.com/telegraph-china-arms-russias-war-in-ukraine/* Russia's war in Ukraine. *
China has sent tens of thousands of shipments to Russian weapons firms since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Telegraph reported on Aug. 19.
The Telegraph's investigation found that China has helped supply the Russian military with helicopters, drones, optical sights, and essential raw materials. [I wonder if the US will do anything]

General Staff: Russian forces fail https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russia-fails-attack-to-take-urozhaine/ to recapture Urozhaine.

⚡️PM Shmyhal: Ukraine allots https://kyivindependent.com/pm-shmyhal-2/ funds for energy repairs as winter nears.

⚡️UPDATE: 7 killed, 144 injured in Russian missile attack on Chernihiv city center https://kyivindependent.com/update-7-dead-144-injured-in-russian-missile-attack-on-chernihiv/

⚡️National Resistance Center: Wagner fighters leave https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-wagner-fighters-leave-belarus-due-to-low-pay/ Belarus due to low pay.

⚡️Russian drone attack damages nearly 400 buildings https://kyivindependent.com/russian-overnight-attack-damages-nearly-400-buildings-in-khmelnytskyi-oblast/ in the western Khmelnytskyi Oblast overnight. The attack damaged administrative buildings, schools, communal facilities, and hundreds of residential houses in Medzhybizh and Derazhnia communities.

⚡️Russian attacks on Sumy Oblast cause https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-on-sumy-oblast-cause-2/ 248 blasts in single day.

⚡️Russian official claims https://kyivindependent.com/russia-3/ drone attack on Kursk railway station.

⚡️ Official: 101 children registered https://kyivindependent.com/official-133-children-were-registered-dead-in-morgues-of-occupied-donetsk-oblast-in-2022/ at morgues in Russian-occupied Mariupol last year. It was noted that there are likely more children killed by Russia in occupied Donetsk Oblast, and that the information indicated in the document is only what Russian proxies in the region had access to.

Ukrainian pilots have already started a six-month training session on U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on national television on Aug. 19. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-pilots-start-training-on-f-16s-gripen-jets/

⚡️Ukraine, Sweden sign 'statement of intent' to start joint production of CV90 armored vehicles https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-and-sweden-sign-statement-of-intent-to-start-joint-production-of-cv90-armored-vehicles/

Several beaches have officially reopened in Odesa, Ukraine's seaport city, which remains a target of Russian drone and missile attacks.
With some restrictions in effect, Ukrainians can now swim within designated zones protected by anti-mine nets.

⚡️Blast reported on premises of Interior Ministry site in Kyiv (https://kyivindependent.com/minister-2/) where experts examine explosives.

Expectations vs. reality: counteroffensive progress #ThisWeekInUkraine

Less troops, a lot of artillery systems.
Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - AUG 20
■ Strikes on both sides & engagements above average
■ Troop losses <500 but equipment above 7-day average
■ Double-digit artillery, drone, vehicle & APV losses
■ Biggest artillery losses in over a month (since Jul 18)

(yesterday's losses)

UNITED24 Media Telegram

⚡️Ukrainian pilots have started testing on Saab JAS 39 Gripen aircraft, — Zelenskyy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has embarked on a working visit to Sweden. During his time there, the President of Ukraine engaged in meetings with several dignitaries, including Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, King Charles XVI, Queen Silvia, Speaker Andreas Norlen, and heads of parliamentary parties.

An "unusual situation" has arisen concerning the Russian interplanetary station "Luna-25" (Moon-25)
According to "Roscosmos," the station was intended to enter the pre-landing orbit, but the maneuver encountered failure. Experts are currently investigating this situation, as such complications could potentially result in the loss of the station.

According to preliminary calculations, the Luna-25 station switched to an off-design orbit, collided with the Moon, and ceased to exist, — Roskosmos.

Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk has outlined the key contemporary aircraft that Ukraine requires urgently:
"Priorities have been established. Our foremost priority is the F-16 aircraft. However, this is not the only priority we have identified. Following that, the Swedish JAS 39 Gripen aircraft is our second priority. In third place, we have the British Eurofighter Typhoon. And fourth in line is the French Rafale aircraft." @notimagain

Just moments ago, this Ukrainian family from Chernihiv was joyfully returning from church with a basket of apples, celebrating a religious holiday in Ukraine. In an instant, the husband finds himself clutching his wife's lifeless hand at an intersection stained by her blood.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇧🇾🇵🇱 Belarus is charging illegal migrants €10,000 each to smuggle them to the Polish border.
Yesterday, on August 18, 123 migrants, mostly citizens of Somalia, Yemen, Syria, and Eritrea, tried to cross the border. The Polish Border Guard is convinced that Belarus is making money on this.

Malyar explains why Ukraine does not disclose war losses
During martial law, information about the number of killed and wounded Ukrainian military is a state secret, as the enemy can use this data to calculate Ukraine's likely future actions, Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Hanna Malyar said on Saturday, August 19.

Ukrainian theater and film actor Oleksii Khilskyi, originally from Kamianske, died in the war.

A rescue operation has been completed in Chernihiv after an attack on the city center.

https://twitter.com/Ian___F/status/1693196531598315548/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1693196531598315548&currentTweetUser=Ian___F

Nothing sensitive, just a NAFO meme

Our foremost priority is the F-16 aircraft. However, this is not the only priority we have identified. Following that, the Swedish JAS 39 Gripen aircraft is our second priority….

Makes sense, priority being driven by what can be procured in quantity.

I bet the Lt Gen wouldn’t turn his nose up at Gripen+AESA radar + Meteor AAM for the air to air mission.

New thread for when needed: Ukraine Invasion: Part 44 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4876351-ukraine-invasion-part-44

President Zelensky confirms the Netherlands will send 42 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine - the entire Dutch inventory - after pilots and engineers have been trained. 🇳🇱🤝🇺🇦
Well done Netherlands.
Now we're getting somewhere 💪

Fucking ace!

There’s an interesting piece in the link below…I think the headline timescale is a bit alarmist but within he article there’s a lengthy but reasonably accurate summary of why you can’t just strap Ukrainian pilots into F-16s and expect them to win the war tomorrow..

Also I think there’s a bit of expectation management (or is it disinformation) on the increased emphasis in recent statements that the F-16s will very much be deployed in an Air Defence (AD) role, at least initially.

I know some might have imagined the F-16s being used on day one in a strike/attack role to blat the Russian army back over the border but in terms of the aircraft’s vulnerabilities (don’t forget it’s forth generation), it’s weapons package and the missile environment over the battlefield the AD role defending against missile/drone makes sense.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-f-16-combat-proficiency-at-scale-not-likely-before-2027-air-force-general-says

@notimagain we are now on thread 44, link above

Thanks

Really interesting and informative article, as were the comments. Thanks @notimagain.

Wow that's amazing!

Link to new thread: Ukraine Invasion: Part 44 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4876351-ukraine-invasion-part-44