Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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It's being reported by multiple news outlets now (the Lukashenko-Prigozhin talks)

PMK

It's flightradar, not real radar, so aircraft symbols drop in and out for technical reasons, please don't read anything into it.

Flightradar in general is not a great source of intel unless you know how it works and what normal traffic looks like....but that doesn't stop it being used as a source by some on twitter.

Coud Lukashenko throw Putin under the bus now he has been substantially weakened?

I don't see what Prigozhin gets out of stopping other than making himself an easier target for the forces loyal to Putin. Putin's illusion of being in control, powerful and unbeatable is now broken forever. He can't let Prigozhin walk away like nothing has happened.

@GerardAraud: "The way Moscow elites greet Prigozhin in the coming hours will tell us whether he has succeeded or not. Alone, he can nothing. He needs the rallying of a substantial part of them."

I agree, it just makes no sense. Did anybody have "Lukashenko talks Prigozhin down from coup-ing" on their bingo card?

There’s probably some level of maskirovka involved in the currents events.

Prigozhin has apparently been promised security guarantees for Wagner fighters (by Lukashenko)

Not me heh. I too think that Prigozhin has more to gain from getting to Moscow. If Putin's offered him enough to settle, then it's going to be big

Also, Prigozhin notoriously hates Gerasimov and Shoigu, whom Putin has protected and seems to have a lot of loyalty towards. If Putin is now throwing them under the bus to survive himself, then none of the Russian factions will trust Putin ever again.

@notimagain oh I know, there are many many planes up there that are not on Flightradar! Someone commented on Twitter just now that it is strange that there are not more military aircraft showing up over Moscow. It's not strange at all! Many military aircraft don't show on Flightradar anyway!

It was just interesting that the transponder on this particular plane, the most tracked plane on FR at that moment, just suddenly switched off! Seems to lend credence to the idea that it may well have been Putin...

If they want to carry on with war in Ukraine then I now fear how that might look.

For info that's not always the reason.

There are gaps in the areas flight radar can cover and (as mentioned upthread) aircraft can sometimes fly out of coverage and disappear, even if the transponder has been left on....that's simply down to the way flightradar works..

Flightradar has several limitations that the providers don't really advertise, it's certainly not an all seeing eye providing the sort of coverage Air Traffic and the military can get, so treat it with care/scepticism.

Prigo just denied rumours with Belarus...

Can you say a bit more? :)

If this is orchestrated, what would the purpose be, and by whom? what woudl the goals be? (genuine questions, sometimes type can come over a bit abrupt, not my intention).

Yeh, I think they just stopped for lunch

Think he's denied that he got anything from it but not the talks?

@notimagain that's very interesting, thanks for that. I usually just use it to see if my daughters' flights are delayed so I know when they will get home, it works well enough for that mundane task!

max seddon
AT maxseddon
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@maxseddon
Prigozhin says Wagner is standing its coup attempt down and going back to Ukraine "according to the plan."

Prighozin says he's standing down and going back to ukraine via telegram (@maxseddon)

Jinx, Ducks!

snap! (and thanks for the new thread, @MagicFox )

RTB is right, at the same time he says negotiations with Lukashenko failed. This is....too weird. Something fishy about this whole thing

The term what the fuck seems appropriate….

Whaaaaaat???? I’m so confused!