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Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

986 replies

MagicFox · 24/06/2023 13:32

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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145
notimagain · 24/06/2023 14:25

BippityBobbityBoo · 24/06/2023 14:18

This is probably a very stupid question but I’m listening to the radio and they keep saying that this has serious implications for the whole world and particularly the west but they aren’t explaining why! Why?

Because to paraphrase myself from earlier you have a major nuclear power possibly coming undone...and then what happens to the weapons.?

I suspect ATM a big priority for western intelligence is trying to get some idea where weapons are, how secure are they, and almost more importantly how secure is the release chain...

TBH ATM I'd be more worried short term about the vulnerability (both physical and the control) of tactical weapons rather than the strategic force.

BoreOfWhabylon · 24/06/2023 14:26

Breathless PMK

Greenshake · 24/06/2023 14:29

Thank you for setting up the thread, and to all the regular contributors. I remain confident that the possibility of an inward collapse would have been comprehensively war gamed by all concerned parties. There is also the role of China to consider, as nobody wants any sort of nuclear incident taking place.

RiseYpres · 24/06/2023 14:31

BippityBobbityBoo · 24/06/2023 14:23

@RiseYpres thank you for the utterly terrifying explanation

I am no expert just to add. Just someone who has not faith in Putin behaving like any sort of human being.

Igotjelly · 24/06/2023 14:31

Greenshake · 24/06/2023 14:29

Thank you for setting up the thread, and to all the regular contributors. I remain confident that the possibility of an inward collapse would have been comprehensively war gamed by all concerned parties. There is also the role of China to consider, as nobody wants any sort of nuclear incident taking place.

China will be really interesting in all this. Of Putin is deposed they’ve lost that quote personal relationship between Xi and Putin. China also famously hate instability.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 14:35

BippityBobbityBoo · 24/06/2023 14:18

This is probably a very stupid question but I’m listening to the radio and they keep saying that this has serious implications for the whole world and particularly the west but they aren’t explaining why! Why?

The whole war has destabilized the world, more so than the awful Middle Eastern and Afghan wars, because the big powers (at this moment) are China, the US, Russia and increasingly India and Brazil, possibly Pakistan.

Russia's invasion means that the grain which went to feed Africa and elsewhere is no longer flowing the way it should. Hungry people are angry people and it leads to an increase in desperation, instability and conflict - sometimes religious, which has a horrible tendency to spread.

The ecological disaster of the Nova Kakhovka dam will make this worse.

The financial markets have been affected and there is a movement towards the Yuan becoming more of a trading currency, which was previously all in the dollar. The changes are happening relatively fast, though not very fast, but the markets will have to adjust.

The nations that were heavily influenced by Russia are in some cases breaking free, which Russia hates and is dangerous (though it is a good thing for those countries)

There are various other implications but also what has to be noted is that Russia -is- a nuclear power and that can never be forgotten.

Whatever happens now, Russia's stability has been very badly shaken. If Putin stays, he's weakened and he's going to be even nastier - he trusted Prigozhin and this betrayal is going to affect him mentally. He tends to raise the stakes, now lower them, when he's in a corner and this is going to make him even nastier.

If Prigozhin wins, he's a truly nasty individual who built up a truly nasty army and no one knows what he will do to Russia. This is a guy who has people killed by crushing their heads with sledgehammers on film, and then sends a sledgehammer to the heads of the EU. He's a brutal, vicious wild card with no experience of governing, and no one can see what will happen.

If he wins he has no legal legitimacy. I'm not sure how far that's going to matter actually - people will have to deal with him. But it will make things slightly more difficult for him on the world stage.

He will certainly purge his enemies, of whom he has many. He will likely put Russia under a much more severe rule than it is now and it will become more militaristic. When it comes to Prigozhin, I do wonder if the chance of nuclear war becomes more likely - though he's a survivor and it'll be the last option.

China could increase its influence if Prigozhin comes into power, and it might well anyway even if Putin stays in power because he will be weakened. China has a lot to gain from Russia becoming its unspoken satellite - earth-resources but also a potential rival diminished, and a change in power status. Russia used to be more powerful than China, now it's headed the other way very very fast.

So all the stability, which was heavily knocked by Putin invading and the West choosing to stand up to him by supporting Ukraine, was already badly affected specially as food production was heavily impacted.

Now with a vicious psychopath like Prigozhin in charge - the cards have been thrown in the air even further and while people can make some educated guesses which way some of them will fall, no one is sure and there are plenty of cards that we simply don't know which way they will land.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 14:37

RiseYpres · 24/06/2023 14:21

I think Putin is a mad and cornered injured wolf and he has no conscience. He will be scorched earth and he will absolutely employ every single weapon at his disposal in order to 'win'. Winning for him might mean everyone dies. He is truly off his rocker and he does not care about anything.

I suspect that because the threat to Putin comes from ~within~ Russia and not externally, he'll do everything he can but he may keep his devastation within Russia itself at this point. At this point, there's no reason to turn it outward.

RiseYpres · 24/06/2023 14:39

Yes all of that @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Plus you have the added complication of the Chechens. What is your take on the Chechans moving in? I was astounded when they were apparently on Putin's side at the beginning (I admit I am coming to all of this analysis quite late as I have been hiding from it). But if the Chechens make a big against Wagner then it's going to be totally complete utter bloodshed I believe.

RiseYpres · 24/06/2023 14:41

*bid

TokyoSushi · 24/06/2023 14:41

Still at football tournament but PMK for later!

MissConductUS · 24/06/2023 14:47

RiseYpres · 24/06/2023 14:39

Yes all of that @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Plus you have the added complication of the Chechens. What is your take on the Chechans moving in? I was astounded when they were apparently on Putin's side at the beginning (I admit I am coming to all of this analysis quite late as I have been hiding from it). But if the Chechens make a big against Wagner then it's going to be totally complete utter bloodshed I believe.

Wagner is far more capable, better trained, and better equipped than the Chechens, who have spent most of the war filming videos of themselves shooting at nothing to post on Tik Toc. They will not offer any serious opposition to Wagner.

In other news, the Russians have destroyed the oil terminal at Voronezh to prevent Wagner from capturing it. So the Russians are now supporting the mission of the Ukrainians to eliminate assets like this. They must be breaking out the champagne in Kyiv.

Chatillon · 24/06/2023 14:48

RiseYpres · 24/06/2023 14:21

I think Putin is a mad and cornered injured wolf and he has no conscience. He will be scorched earth and he will absolutely employ every single weapon at his disposal in order to 'win'. Winning for him might mean everyone dies. He is truly off his rocker and he does not care about anything.

I disagree.

Putin loves his country. He loves its history, its churches, its architecture and its natural environment. All that encapsulates Russia Putin will not lose. Putin is not a man who is going to unleash nuclear war and erase everything. You are totally wrong on that.

But worrying about an ex-convict, hot dog seller, self-appointed Napoleon in the form of Prighozin is a different matter. That is the worry.

I still wonder, and will do so until someone tells me otherwise, where Peskov is right now.

DrBlackbird · 24/06/2023 14:49

Putin. Prigozhin. Neither offers a good choice.

Prigozhin = "murderous maniacal bastard"

https://twitter.com/betelgeuse1922/status/1672557304322088964

https://twitter.com/betelgeuse1922/status/1672557304322088964

DrBlackbird · 24/06/2023 14:51

Agree that Putin is better than Prigozhin. That’s saying something.

Natsku · 24/06/2023 15:00

DrBlackbird · 24/06/2023 14:51

Agree that Putin is better than Prigozhin. That’s saying something.

Agreed, I would not want Prigozhin to win and take over. Preferably I'd like both sides to just destroy each other until they are too weak to bother Ukraine any more, or anyone else.

Chatillon · 24/06/2023 15:02

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar Thank you for your daily briefs and your analysis at 14:35 is excellent. Thank you.

AmeliaWarnerBros · 24/06/2023 15:03

Is anyone listening to Mario on Twitter? They are reporting on developments more or less live- ie they say that Wagner is in Moscow Oblast; 2 hours away from Moscow. They're building trenches in Moscow now to slow the advance.

For people saying this is exciting- Twitter etc- no it's not. Just imagine being a Russian. Horrendous.

Igotjelly · 24/06/2023 15:05

AmeliaWarnerBros · 24/06/2023 15:03

Is anyone listening to Mario on Twitter? They are reporting on developments more or less live- ie they say that Wagner is in Moscow Oblast; 2 hours away from Moscow. They're building trenches in Moscow now to slow the advance.

For people saying this is exciting- Twitter etc- no it's not. Just imagine being a Russian. Horrendous.

I imagine it’s much like being a Ukrainian for the past year and a bit….

Tinkerbyebye · 24/06/2023 15:05

For people saying this is exciting- Twitter etc- no it's not. Just imagine being a Russian. Horrendous.

I agree. But then again they will understand how Ukrainians feel, hopefully remember and begin to see Putin for what he is

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 15:06

RiseYpres · 24/06/2023 14:39

Yes all of that @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Plus you have the added complication of the Chechens. What is your take on the Chechans moving in? I was astounded when they were apparently on Putin's side at the beginning (I admit I am coming to all of this analysis quite late as I have been hiding from it). But if the Chechens make a big against Wagner then it's going to be totally complete utter bloodshed I believe.

As @MissConductUS says, the Chechens are not an army as such, they're a rag tag who generally stay further back, shoot any -Russian- soldiers who try to escape and hold occupied towns, where according to our old Kherson guests who escaped while it was occupied, they steal and rape anyone they fancy.

The are also playing catch-up. They've only got near to Rostov now and some of Prigozhin's forces are halfway to Moscow, perhaps more now.

@Chatillon Putin has said "what's the world worth without Russia". I think that if he was cornered and Russia was at risk of destruction he might press the big red button. But maybe he wouldn't do it just for Prigozhin taking over, as Russia would go on.

Prigozhin on the other hand ... God only knows. But he is ultimately a survivor and a (vicious) businessman. I don't think he will as long as he's not backed into a corner while in charge of Russia. Having said that, it's just my guesses and Ive a feeling you've much more knowledge of RUssia than me.

AmeliaWarnerBros · 24/06/2023 15:07

Mario Nawfal on Twitter.

And I agree re how the Ukrainians feel. I know a couple of Ukrainian ladies & the stories they've told me...

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 15:07

AmeliaWarnerBros · 24/06/2023 15:03

Is anyone listening to Mario on Twitter? They are reporting on developments more or less live- ie they say that Wagner is in Moscow Oblast; 2 hours away from Moscow. They're building trenches in Moscow now to slow the advance.

For people saying this is exciting- Twitter etc- no it's not. Just imagine being a Russian. Horrendous.

Wagner 2 hours from Moscow?

You mean a Russian army can actually move along a highway fast after all?

AmeliaWarnerBros · 24/06/2023 15:10

For someone not very knowledgeable- what do we think could seriously come of this? Imminently, & longterm? I'm listening to Mario, LBC, watching The Guardian shorts in YouTube, reading here & on Tattle (sorry 😔), & just need clarification. My anxiety likes a clear-ish explanation...

Chatillon · 24/06/2023 15:11

"What's the world worth without Russia"

And here is the nub. You can read this either way.

Look for the positive.
Turn it around.
Every cloud has a silver lining.

He told us what he is not prepared to do. I can only think US intel already knows this.

I still come back to Peskov. Where is he? We might need him as the next best after Putin.