Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

**

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

There are those who say that what is happening now has been planned/funded/orchestrated by the CIA and the oligarchs/businessmen in Russia. It's a way to end the war and get back to making money (or loafing on your superyacht).

One of the things Doomsday watch did raise is that the danger of nuclear weapons falling into Wagner hands may be less in them using them and more in them selling them….

Surely in the short term it's good for Ukraine just because everyone is busy elsewhere. And if the war with Ukraine is 'unwinnable' then this is the perfect time to exit without looking like weak cowards.

Yeah, practically speaking how on earth is the Russian state going to be able to keep the occupying troops in Ukraine armed and fed? Can't see how they can currently get to them, and any Russian army unit asking for anything at this point could just as well have started supporting Wagner.

Reading

Possibly, but it's not going to solve the problems of not enough good equipment and not enough morale and supply line problems.

Yes, Russia's war effort has been hampered by significant structural issues that aren't easily solved. A coup is not going to make them competent.

That plane that thousands of people were tracking on Flightradar just disappeared into thin air...

Agree morale is a massive issue for Russia. I hope this is good news for Ukraine but I fear it’s about upping the war effort. God alone knows what’s going to happen.

I'm not a FlightRadar person. Does that happen ever? What's the significance?

I've seen it happen with military planes sometimes. It means they have turned off the transponder.

Unverified rumours coming in of Ukrainian troops having crossed the Dprino River...

The M4 road up to Moscow is getting closed at a rapid rate of knots, judging by Google Maps.

I've seen a few roadblocks comprising two HGVs blocking the road on Twitter.

Surely they can now re-take all their occupied land? Who's going to oppose them now?

Just come across this thread, and apologies if it's been asked already, but might this not be a chance for Ukraine to re-seize occupied land on their eastern front?

Cross-posted with titchy

I think the assumption is that Putin is on the plane, and they have turned off the transponder to hide where he is fleeing to.

To think we thought it was surreal when Russia invaded Ukraine but this is a whole new level.

It is possible within hours that Wagner will be striding down the halls of the Kremlin and picking up the telephone to the US or NATO.

It is quite staggering the speed of this and ironic that Wagner choose this route almost showing the rest of Russia a shining example what should have happened in Kyiv! It beggars belief.

Putin will remain holed up in Iran or Turkey until someone collects him for his hearing at The Hague. Wishful thinking but now not entirely unrealistic.

Faytuks reporting talks between Belarus and Prigozhin

and @shockthemonkey

there are a lot of troops still in Ukraine who are used to answering to the Russian MoD. Some will be loyal to the MoD and until they receive other orders may well carry on. Others may throw in with Wagner, but at the moment not move.

We jsut don't know if the MoD will order the Russian soldiers in Ukraine to withdraw and if so, how fast they can. It's chaos at the moment, from all accounts. It might be harder to get armaments to the Russian troops because Wagner is blocking supply lines and likely stealing the supplies.

If this coup is defeated then things might resume as they are but I bet Putin arranges for some purges of soldiers and units he doesn't trust. If Prigozhin becomes the new leader then he may carry on with the invasion or he may try to withdraw the army. He's openly said it was a mistake (though with him, you can never trust what he says and you have to be aware that what he does may have an ulterior motive).

In practical terms the land is so heavily mined that retaking anything is proving very hard, though the Ukrainians still have a lot of forces in reserve. But even if the Russians withdraw, this will have to be handled somehow.

@MagicFox d'you think the report of the talks is reliable?

Thanks for the new thread MagicFox but blimey, you’ll be doing thread no.43 before the weekend is out 😲

The Russians are now ripping up their own motorways.

No idea, no confirmation from Wagner but Faytuks suggests this would align with the reports that the convoy en route to Moscow has halted

Before the evening's out I think!

Thanks for your explanation @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Some sort of negotiations makes much the most sense for all of them!