Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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Its not a bad thing to have a bit of state diversity. The USA does not recognise the ICC either IIRC. It just deals with it in other ways.

Dubai/the UAE will be another place the Russian elite will head for.

Most tracked flights on FlightRadar right now

The TikTokers allegedly stuck in traffic in Rostov...

Ooh what's that 4th one?

That 4th one is now 1st and is one of Putins

Emergency episode of Doomsday Watch too. Just giving it a listen now.

Prigozhin wants Shoigu and Gerasimov out. The question mark is Putin in relation to this. Is he on board/will negotiate with Prigozhin? Or will he not forgive the humiliation? OR will Prigozhin not forgive it if Putin refuses. It's all so slippery

All of Putin's chat about allowing Wagner's troops some indemnity if they surrender now sounds increasingly desperate, even to me in the UK. I think he's in deep shit!

I'm mildly encouraged by part of Prigozhin's manifesto having been that the invasion of Ukraine was started under false pretences and was unjustified. (Although I note he doesn't seem to have said this for Donetsk & Luhansk.)

This means if he comes out on top of Putin, he could immediately withdraw all troops from other areas of Ukraine with no loss of face whatsoever.

The latest BBC article suggests that Prizgozhin wants the war just as much as Putin does...he's not marching in to save the day for Ukraine, he's doing this because he thinks Putin's lot are messing it up and he could do better. With tactical nukes, for one.

So if Wagner are successful, surely things are only going to get much much worse.

How much risk are Turkey in of attack if Putin and Lukashenko are hiding out there?

Presumably Prigozhin would be much happier being Mister of Defence than President.
Funny how time flies, this BBC story is not quite 24 hours old
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-65996531

Peskov did an interesting statement about Ukraine also.

this could all be meticulously planned.

Yep absolutely. Talk of negotiations etc is signs of weakness.

Yes Prighozin is hardly against war in Ukraine! He is no revolutionary hero.

Anton Gerashchenko's pinned tweet from a few hours ago is very interesting...

What did he say @theDudesmummy ?

2 key takeaways from Doomsday Watch interview with Dr. Mike Martin (worth a listen):

• this is the beginning of the end of the war in Ukraine
• Putin will not be President of Russia in 6 months time.

It’s all scarily exciting.

Frying pan and fire. Let’s hope it’s not hellfire.

I was scared to listen but I might now, thanks @Igotjelly.

Yes despite the name of the podcast it’s great.

I don’t know if this is good news for Ukraine. This isn’t anti war, it’s anti incompetent war. They may turn back on the Ukraine shortly with increased vigour.

@GeorgeSpeaks it's a long piece about the possible outcomes. He is optimistic about what they mean for Ukraine. He's a Ukrainian and a big patriot so I guess he would say that, but he does make sense.

What are the implications?

pmk

Surely in the short term it's good for Ukraine just because everyone is busy elsewhere. And if the war with Ukraine is 'unwinnable' then this is the perfect time to exit without looking like weak cowards.

In the medium to long term, there appears to be no good news for anyone. Unless NATO works out when the red button is between leaders and bombs the whole lot to glass. Although that's a joke, I do think there will be many many leaders having a conversation about how to capitalise on Russia's current chaotic situation. Everyone will be working out how to use this for themselves.