Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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No argument here. I know how narcissists work. They are in denial forever.

Everything I say could be wrong.

Reports that the TikTokers in Ukraine have been leaving to go to Rostov...

They won’t flee… they will just wait for the change in power and go about their daily lives as usual. Those who wanted to flee have done so by now

Putin believed zelenskyy would flee when they began the attack on Ukraine. Given that people, in my experience, expect others to behave in the same way they would, I would not be surprised to find Putin has either fled, or locked himself down somewhere.
He expected others to behave cowardly as that's how he would behave himself.

Prigozhin is the pacing horse. The catalyst, but not the main event. That is my bet.

this is my thinking too

Suddenly that ICC international arrest warrant for V Putin is looking like it might be worth the paper it's written on.

If only to limit his options as to where to flee.

He could be in ALL of them. Does anybody actually know how many body doubles/stand-ins he has?

There’s a great irony that Moscow might fall in a lightening strike by 20k men when they failed so miserably to do the same to Kyiv with a full army.

This was from* *@Igotjelly at the end of Thread 41. It is a sober thought.

Achilles' Heel comes to mind.

lukashenko is in Turkey now isn’t he? According to Ukraine.now telegram (unverified) he fled after a phone call with pu

Oliver Carroll AT OllieCarroll
I’m told by source in Ukrainian intelligence that they understand negotiations are ongoing between Kremlin and Prigozhin even at this late hour.

They are all fleeing to a Nato state.

Jesus wept.

Frankly questions should be asked if Turkey letting them in…

Some sources have suddenly started to report that Wagner have entered the Moscow Oblast!!! This seems crazy.

That would make Moscow itself 2hrs away.

I’ve just seen this on Ukraine.now again unverified…

Good point!

It may be more helpful in the long run to do so. Compared to say a prison on a Caribbean island (if there is any difference). Turkey will absolutely capitalise on this.

So far as I can see there are no answers to the question 'confirmed by who?'

Bet Lukashenko is worried too! Apparently Putin in talks with allies!

Worth bearing in mind the Turkey has been playing both sides from the start, for example being one of the few countries which has allowed routine commercial flights to to continue between itself and Russia.

I also think I'm correct believing it doesn't recognise the International Criminal Court (ICC).

The above is in my personal opinion rather unfortunate, but I don't either of the above is a conflict on paper with being a member of NATO

Mayor of Moscow has declared Monday a 'non-working day' and called for citizens to clear the roads around the city so that the military can operate....

Well that sounds like they are fully expecting visitors then.

Medvedev becomes the first senior Russian official who calls Prizgohin’s armed rebellion “a coup” that attempts to seize power in the country.

Medvedev said "quite likely" that foreign specialists participated in the mutiny

I think we can safely say the Russian Government are taking it seriously and it's not an elaborate bluff!

Deputy secretary of Russia's security council Medvedev says that the whole world will be on brink of catastrophe if Russian nuclear weapons fall into the hands of 'bandits' - TASS

Timwhite at TWMCLtd
#Russia has landed 5 empty military transport planes in #Belarus.

The massive IL-76s landed one after the other at the Machulyshchi airfield, according to the Gayun monitoring group.

No doubt soon they will return full of troops, weapons or both.

meanwhile the main Belarus opposition leader has called for the Belarus army to kick out the Russians for Belarus ...

If Prig is as close to Moscow as some reports suggest, they might be too late.

I'd also question the motivation of troops from Belarus to defend against Wagner.

The Belarus' Security Council hedges its support. In their official statement they support the war, Russia, and the Russian unity, but not Putin and not the government.