Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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Official statements are that he is working from the Kremlin but his plane left Moscow. Another thing no one can confirm at this stage.

So this tells us Russia do not have the means to defend Moscow. Moscow will fall this evening is my guess.

Putin would not allow a situation that looked like he was fleeing. It seems Wagner look virtually unopposed if we see the speed of advance.

https://twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1672610743517081600?s=20

At this rate and if not intercepted -- the Wagner military convoy will reach Moscow by around 21:00 GMT... right?

Helpful map from Verstka of where we're at with Prigozhin's coup attempt - the journey the convoy has made so far, north up to Lipetsk region.

ChrisO_wiki (independent military history author and researcher
1/ The security forces in Moscow are reported to be utterly incapable of resisting a heavily armed force like Wagner. Police generals are said to considering which side to back, while forces on the ground are already defecting to Wagner.

2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that police generals held an emergency meeting at the Interior Ministry this morning to prepare the capital's defences. Normal police duties are being limited, with only major incidents being responded to.

3/ Checkpoints manned by police and National Guard units have been set up on the outskirts of the city. Former Wagner members living in Moscow are being taken into preventative custody. Behind the scenes, the generals are said to be "discussing how to serve the new regime."

4/ The security forces are in no shape to fight off Wagner. An Interior Ministry source says: "No one on the police force is ready for combat operations. Absolutely no one."

5/ "Even the police special forces, Grom, are not capable of engaging in combat operations with Wagner's storm troopers. It's one thing to get into a flat and throw oppositionists to the ground, but it's another thing to have as opponents people who are really ready to die."

6/ "The police are not ready for it, a warm office is not a foxhole."

Another source highlights Wagner's rapid decision-making as a key advantage, in contrast to the paralysis of the Russian authorities. Defence units are reported to be surrendering to Wagner.

7/ "Prigozhin is clearly not bluffing, they have at least 20,000 fighters. Many of them with serious experience. Decisions in Wagner are not made like in the Ministry of Defence through a bunch of yappers at the top, but almost instantaneously."

8/ "The forces deployed to defend Moscow are not enough to stop them. Parts of them surrender to [Wagner], they just go under their control." /end

ChrisO_wiki
Thought for the day: is Yegveny Prigozhin emulating Julius Caesar, and is Putin Russia's Pompey the Great? There's a whole lot of parallels popping out at me with Caesar's march on Rome in 49 BC, when the Pompeian regime was caught unprepared and disintegrated rapidly.

RTB: Again no way to verify this, but I think should be seen as entirely possible at this point.

A total collapse of Russian internal defence with no one knowing what to do or who to support is viable.

Also Prigozhin power is bigger if he is able to exaggerate the threat he poses. Moving quickly adds to this.

This is the most serious incident of our times. Potentially even bigger than the Ukraine war.

China: I do hope you are taking notes.

You may notice I did not say anything about his people. That was deliberate.

It is a subtle point, but I notice you agree with me in your third sentence. Notice the word love again. Do you see what I am saying 🙂

Haven’t listened to it yet, but The Rest is Politics have done an emergency podcast on the current situation.

There is an emergency pod by The rest is politics.

Don't know if this has been shared already

https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1672593154862620678?s=20

Confirmed:

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov and his family have arrived in Turkey via a private jet and have claimed asylum.

Agreed..the position of the aircraft tells us nothing about Putin's whereabouts.. (it's the old story - information does not in itself equal analysis)

Tim White AT TWMCLtd
It's alleged that the 1st Battalion of the 217th Guards Parachute Regiment went over to #Prigozhin's side.

I screenshotted a dull video. I think it's likely a fake as there is only one speaker, no ID marks, filmed indoors, but a little fuel on the fire.

As I was saying. Exaggeration potentially v useful for Prigozhin and right on cue...

wow !

Can they do that?! Wow this is serious stuff.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672616852319551488?s=20

Leonid Nevzlin:
Putin is hiding in the bunker of his residence in Valdai.
His closest friends and associates also flew there. The dictator is in a panic. Additional troops advanced towards Valdai to protect him. My sources just said this.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1672596659396571136 khadrovs troops trying to reach Rostov but stuck in traffic jams

Prigozhin is the pacing horse. The catalyst, but not the main event. That is my bet.

In the meantime, I am also wondering if two of our submarines have silently left port, just in case.

I bet the US intel is streets ahead of everybody on this.

Anton Gerashenko at Gerashenko_en
The Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, formed from Belarusians fighting on the side of Ukraine, stated that it is preparing for active actions in Belarus amid a rebellion in Russia.

"We will need men for decisive action. Get ready to join the self-defence units and wait for our signal," the regiment said

I think Putin and his allies simply didn't envisage this scenario.

It seems all they've got is digging up roads and deploying dump trucks to block them.

Given the conditions in Ukraine (and winter terrain) I doubt that's going to phase Wagner that much.

Assuming they get to Moscow I'm unclear what Pirg's plan is.

I think much will depend on the local population - as seen in Kherson it's one thing to occupy a place another to rule/control it.

Having said that, Putin not being able to protect Moscow is a massive blow.

It will be interesting to see how his loyalists react. Stay supporting Putin? Switch to Prig?

Or alternatively coalesce around a "neutral" third party and propel them into power ((making concessions to both sides).

Potentially this may be far more planned than it first appears.

It could well be that this is simply the first move to unseat Putin, but Prig is the "kingmaker" and not the intended heir to the throne (though he'll do very well if it succeeds).

Random thoughts. I'm not an expert and other posters may well point out the many flaws in my thinking.

Gerashenko is Ukrainian. He has every reason to stir the pot. But again this is interesting and important. And works in Prigozhin s favour in the short term.

Its wild and moving so fast. You can see how close they are on google maps as the motorway is showing real time blockages caused by the advance.

This is very grim for the ordinary Russian, where can they flee? There’s nowhere left. Has Putin tied all of his military U.K. in Ukraine & left himself short for Russia? If so, seems a set up. Russia is falling apart at the seams. How powerful are the Wagner group? Will the Russian army have to return home to defend what’s left of Russia - (by the time they get back)

The point you are making is that pu will not blow up Russia because he loves the churches, architecture and nature. Please…
this is a bit naive
in my opinion he’s like a violent, obsessive, possessive lover. Who thinks admiring someone’s beauty is love. They have to possess the beauty. If they can’t have it, no one else can

do you see where I’m going with this? Cornered Putin’s “love” of Russia’s beauty will not stop him destroying it all if it’s the last thing he does.

then there is the argument of Ukraine which pu considers a part of Russia ….

either way I’ve said what I think, now is not the time to argue 🙂

This is no happy accoident, as Bob Ross would say.

There’s no way of telling where Putin really is. Apparently all of his residences are decorated in an identical manner so he can claim to be working from one in a video when in reality he’s hundreds of miles away.