Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

**

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Kyiv Independent Telegram

As part of its counteroffensive efforts, Ukraine's military has advanced 1,300 meters toward Russian-occupied Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported on June 29.
Ukrainian forces also advanced 1,200-1,500 meters in the directions of Klishchiivka and Kurdiumivka south of Bakhmut, according to the official. https://kyivindependent.com/official-ukrainian-forces-make-gains-in-donetsk-zaporizhzhia-oblasts/

⚡️Lithuania to send more armored vehicles, ammunition to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-to-send-10-armored-vehicles/ 10 M113 armored vehicles, bringing the total of such vehicles delivered by Vilnius to 72, also 12.5 million rounds for small arms to be produced in 2023, of which 2.5 million will be delivered "in the near future."

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Attack on Chonhar bridge disrupts Russian logistics. https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-attack-on-chonhar-bridge-disrupts-russian-logistics/

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported on June 28 that it detained an alleged Russian spy suspected of coordinating Russian fire in the attack on Kramatorsk's restaurant on June 27. https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-detains-alleged-russian-collaborator-for-adjusting-kramatorsk-attack/

Journalists from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Slidstvo.info have identified members of the Russian military who controlled the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant at the time of the dam explosion on June 6, according to a joint investigation. https://kyivindependent.com/investigation-reveals-russian-soldiers-acted-on-command-at-kakhovka-dam/

⚡️ Update: Death toll in Kramatorsk missile strike rises to 12. https://kyivindependent.com/update-death-toll-of/

The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, voted to return to a monthly bonus system where soldiers, members of the Territorial Defense forces, and police get an extra Hr 100,000 ($2,700) per month if they serve in a designated active combat zone. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-parliament-returns-monthly-bonus-system-to-military/

Switzerland is expanding its sanctions against Russia in line with the EU’s 11th package of sanctions, the Swiss government announced on June 28. https://kyivindependent.com/switzerland-adopts/ [what about your oh-so-important neutrality, Switzerland? a little ... inconsistent, aren't you?]

⚡️ CNN: Russian security services possibly knew about Wagner rebellion in advance. https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-russian-security-services-military-may-have-know/ "They might have known and might have not told about it, and known and decided to help it succeed. There are some hints. There might have been prior knowledge," CNN's source claimed.

⚡️ Media: Poland supports easing restrictions on Ukrainian agricultural products. https://kyivindependent.com/poland-supports-ending-ukrainian-agriculture-import-ban-in-september/

Around 81% of Democrats, 56% of Republicans, and 57% of independents expressed their support for supplying Ukraine with weapons, a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on June 28 revealed. https://kyivindependent.com/poll-65-americans-support-arming-ukraine/

Ukraine has achieved all three key prerequisites for joining NATO, Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told The Guardian on June 28.
Reznikov listed these conditions as interoperability with NATO forces, a transparent procurement system, and civilian control of the military. https://kyivindependent.com/reznikov-ukraine-fulfills-all-3-conditions-for-nato-membership/

⚡️ Polish, Lithuanian presidents back Ukraine's NATO membership ahead of Vilnius summit. https://kyivindependent.com/presidents-of-poland-lithuania-back-ukraines-nato-membership-ahead-of-vilnius-summit/

The Belarusian opposition organization National Anti-Crisis Management (NAM) submitted evidence to the International Criminal Court (ICC) on June 27 alleging the complicity of Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko in the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children.
They say at least 2,100 children have been illegally transferred to Belarus amid Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine. s

Lithuania approved a temporary ban on the land transport of dual-use goods that could reach Russia or Belarus and be used in the war against Ukraine, Baltic News Agency reported on June 28. https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-restricts-transit-of-dual-use-goods/

Other way around from yesterday; medium personnel losses but a lot of artillery and one plane.

UNITED24 Telegram

After the attack on the Chongarsky bridge, the invaders are trying to use the route through Armiansk, — the speaker of the Operational Command "Pivden" ("South") Hanna Gumenyuk

⚡️ Ukrainian Armed Forces seize initiative near Bakhmut and conduct a broad front — General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the Presidents of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda and Andrzej Duda of Poland in Kyiv.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already started planning his visit to Ukraine. However, the process is at a very early stage, the date has not yet been determined, Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel Yevhen Korniychuk commented to The Jerusalem Post.

Biden believes that Putin "definitely" weakened after the attempted mutiny of the Wagner PMC.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, speaking in Brussels at a joint press conference with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, promised a "surprise" on Ukraine's membership at the bloc's July summit in Vilnius

⚡️Estonia will increase financial support to the Armed Forces of Ukraine to 3% of its GDP, the Prime Minister of Estonia said.

Among Americans, support for providing arms to Ukraine has increased sharply — from 46% in May to 65% now, — Reuters
The survey also found that 76% of respondents believe that providing aid to Ukraine demonstrates to China and other rivals that the US has "the desire and ability to protect its interests and the interests of its allies."

Poland will cancel restrictions on agricultural products from Ukraine after September 15, said Polish President Andrzej Duda at a press conference in Kyiv.

⚡️ Over 560 active Ukrainian citizens have been kidnapped by Russians from the occupied territories.
Among them are activists, volunteers, educators, and journalists. These findings are from the research conducted by Zmina Human Rights Center.

Alcohol producer Bacardi 'said' he was leaving Russia after a full-scale invasion. However, the profit of the Russian branch tripled last year — from 1.5 billion to almost 4.7 billion rubles, and information about the termination of supplies to Russia simply disappeared from the company's press release over time, The Bell reports.

I can find a fair amount of comment on Twitter about the illegal arrests business, but can't find the actual UN report making the claim. I also can't find the claim about Ukrainians killing children being made by the UN itself, only comments on it having been made. This worries me somewhat; who has an interest in devaluing the UN? (The answer seems fairly obvious, and both the stories seem like propaganda rather than accurate; I am even starting to wonder whether Amnesty actually said what it was claimed they said!)

Urk, I think there was a link in the original post but it's what, 3 days ago now?

I don't think there's any doubt at all about Amnesty's original pronouncement though; too many reliable people commented on it.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/ukraine-ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/

• Military bases set up in residential areas including schools and hospitals
• Attacks launched from populated civilian areas
• Such violations in no way justify Russia’s indiscriminate attacks, which have killed and injured countless civilians

Ukrainian forces have put civilians in harm’s way by establishing bases and operating weapons systems in populated residential areas, including in schools and hospitals, as they repelled the Russian invasion that began in February, Amnesty International said today. Such tactics violate international humanitarian law and endanger civilians, as they turn civilian objects into military targets. The ensuing Russian strikes in populated areas have killed civilians and destroyed civilian infrastructure.

Technically they're right, but I'm afraid that it is completely ignoring the reality of war and producing this comment in the early days of the war was very much in Russia's interests. Time and place, time and place.

about the UN:

https://www.reuters.com/world/un-adds-russia-list-shame-killing-children-ukraine-2023-06-22/

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called out Russia on Thursday for killing 136 children in Ukraine in 2022, adding its armed forces to a global list of offenders, according to a report to the U.N. Security Council seen by Reuters.
The United Nations also verified that Russian armed forces and affiliated groups maimed 518 children and carried out 480 attacks on schools and hospitals. Russian armed forces also used 91 children as human shields, according to the report.
Russia has denied targeting civilians since it invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.
The report also verified that Ukrainian armed forces killed 80 children, maimed 175 children and carried out 212 attacks on schools and hospitals. The Ukrainian armed forces are not on the global offenders list.
Guterres said in the report that he was "particularly shocked" by the high number of children killed and maimed and attacks on schools and hospitals by Russian armed forces.
He also said he was "particularly disturbed" by the high number of such offenses against children by Ukrainian armed forces.

I don't know what to make of the statement that Ukrainians have killed children in the shelling. I'm sure it's true, and the UN says that Russians have used children as human shields so there will be deaths. But it's awful.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

😔 The vast majority of Ukrainians—78%—have close relatives or friends who have been injured or killed by the Russian invasion.

Thank you for the careful winnowing of these stories, Ducks; you have more Google-fu than I!

Live: Ukraine Telegram

France, Germany, Britain, and the United States will offer Ukraine security guarantees, the Financial Times reports. (https://www.ft.com/content/859f8e3a-ee49-4148-9158-da48d199d776) They will be formalized in the form of bilateral agreements on long-term financing, military supplies, military training, and intelligence sharing.

The head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, planned to capture Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov during their visit to the southern regions of Russia. However, the FSB learned of these plans two days before.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Western intelligence agencies also learned about Prigozhin's plan through wiretaps and satellite imagery. In their opinion, the initial plan had a chance of success. However, after the leak, Prigozhin had to improvise. This is probably why the coup failed.

🇭🇺🇸🇪 The Hungarian parliament does not plan to consider ratification of Sweden's accession to NATO next week, which most likely means it will be postponed until the fall, when MPs reconvene after the summer break

❗️❗️The deputy commander of the Russian group in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin, was arrested (https://theins.ru/news/263008?fbclid=IwAR1pCgwg2HnR0Gzb6N0eYNJVamJ8squg4W0I72EJ73INCeRS4hkTmpcf4Es) after a failed coup by the leader of the Wagner PMC, The Moscow Times reports. [has he, hasn't he, has he, hasn't he been arrested?]

Zelensky believes that the deployment of the Wagner group to Belarus cannot seriously threaten Ukraine, mercenaries will not be enough to attack

In early May, Russians built a dam on the outskirts of occupied Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia region. Bellingcat writes that it is located within the defense line that encircles the city. Because of the dam, the Tokmachka River has significantly expanded and flooded the surrounding fields - the water level on the eastern side of the dam is steadily rising, as can be seen on satellite images.
Bellingcat suggests that the Russians are considering the tactic of flooding Tokmak to slow down the advance of Ukrainian troops.

The court handed down a life sentence to the former head of Mykolaiv District Prosecutor's Office, Gennadiy Herman. He was found guilty of high treason.
In early March 2022, Herman decided to help the Russians on his own initiative and passed them information about the military. That same month, Russia launched a missile attack on a military barracks in Mykolaiv. At least 50 people were killed there. Herman is considered to be a fire spotter

Deputy Commander of the Russian Armed Forces Sergei Surovikin knew about Yevgeny Prigozhin's plans to rebel against the Russian military leadership, The New York Times reports, citing American officials familiar with the intelligence.

The court handed down a life sentence to the former head of Mykolaiv District Prosecutor's Office, Gennadiy Herman. He was found guilty of high treason.
In early March 2022, Herman decided to help the Russians on his own initiative and passed them information about the military. That same month, Russia launched a missile attack on a military barracks in Mykolaiv. At least 50 people were killed there. Herman is considered to be a fire spotter

Link to the Orbán interview with the Bild quoted earlier:
https://miniszterelnok.hu/en/interview-with-viktor-orban-in-the-german-newspaper-bild/

There are some interesting and unpopular views there.

1. He says for peace negotiations, the opposing side should be able to sit at the table without the spectre of immediate arrest warrants. Charges can and will come after there is peace.
2. He also emphasises the crucial role the US plays in potential negotiations and financing the war.
3. As for his own role, Orbán seems to be a big fan of Lord Palmerston's: "We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow."

Ducks, what controversial thing could you have said?

I was mistaken; we've had so many shills push the 'lets negotiate and this is partly/all the US's fault" line that I thought WhathaveIdoneagain's was another. But they've been here a long time.

So, my message was removed for trollhunting.

Another strangely fragile window:

The vice-president of Loko-Bank, 28-year-old Kristina Baikova, crashed after falling out of the window of her Moscow apartment, reports Baza. As the channel notes, she was there with a friend. https://theins.ru/news/263027

They don't seem to have much imagination. They never slip on a banana and fall into a lion enclosure.

There’s a lot of high rise buildings in Russia 🫢 what is strange is most of them have secure entrance, no one can just rock up uninvited

So Russia has now lost two experienced combat commanders and retained two rear eschelon mellon farmers.

This is working out quite well for Ukraine.

Cardinal Zuppi, Patriarch Kirill and their entourages meeting in Moscow. Probably an irrelevant sideshow. Kirill is crafty.

Патриарх Кирилл встретился с кардиналом Дзуппи | Новости общества | Известия | 29.06.2023 (iz.ru)

Pmk

Different voices from Russia.

Article from Sergei Udaltsov on the Wagner Event.

Sergei Udaltsov: The ghost of the next "March of Justice" haunts Russia: deda14 — LiveJournal

I haven't noticed Udaltsov for ages, but then I'm no longer studying far left and right tendencies in Russia. He generally supports the Communist Presidential Candidates (because they are closest to what he wants, but a bit soft) and was a key mover in Vanguard of Red Youth. Often arrested whenever Navalny was, protesting the same things, see image of them together, he lacked the charisma and IT harnessing nationalism of the former while being a vocal 'Real Communist'.

Some excerpts, with the 2nd paragraph suggesting that there's a crisis of capitalism in Russia that needs to be overcome in order to confront the West.

The rebellion did not happen out of nowhere. As the saying goes, "if a gun hangs on the wall in the first act of the play, it will definitely shoot in the last." It should be noted that initially our state actually created a "private military campaign" to solve its "special" tasks and, apparently, allowed Prigozhin to earn a lot of money through opaque schemes.

…the rebellion took place against the backdrop of real problems at the front and in the rear, which became especially obvious over the 16 months of the Special Military Operation. In order to succeed in the confrontation with the collective West, it is simply necessary to change the disastrous capitalist course of the country's development, to carry out a "left turn" in the economy and social sphere, to nationalize strategic sectors of the national economy, to introduce a modern system of the State Planning Committee, to eradicate the oligarchy and to develop mechanisms of real democracy.

During June 24, we did not see a single rally or picket in support of the authorities. On the other hand, we observed how in Rostov-on-Don many residents greeted the Wagnerites very positively, and at the same time, many high-ranking officials and big businessmen urgently left Moscow, and many - and Russia.

Yes, there were routine statements from governors in support of the president, but it was clearly clear that the military was not eager to confront PMC fighters. And it was the military, not the governor's words, that could stop the Wagner columns. Therefore, the statements made after the fact by the head of the National Guard Zolotov that "they would definitely not take Moscow" do not sound very convincing. In general, frankly, during the rebellion, Russian society partially sympathized with the rebels, and for the most part passively watched from the sidelines to see how it would all end.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-isnt-going-run-out-missiles

Oliver Carroll AT OllieCarroll
As a senior Ukrainian official put to me: “Militarily, Russia is now ready for a long war. Its military complex has stepped up. The question post-Prigozhin is whether they can sustain it politically”

I dont know whether this is good news or bad

From Sky

Russian forces starting to leave Europe's biggest nuclear power plant, says UkraineRussian forces are starting to leave the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, according to Ukraine's Main Department of Intelligence for the Ministry of Defence.
Moscow's troops have occupied the facility since March last year, and Ukraine has recently carried out nuclear disaster response drills in anticipation of a potential attack.
Concerns have been raised about the security of the plant throughout the war, with both sides blaming each other for attacks on its building.
A number of workers have been instructed to leave the plant by 5 July, Kyiv's main intelligence directorate said in a Telegram post.
"According to the latest data, the occupation contingent is gradually leaving the territory of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. One of the first to leave the plant were three Rosatom employees who were in charge of the Russians' actions.
"Ukrainian employees who signed a contract with Rosatom were also advised to evacuate. According to the instructions received, they should leave by July 5."
It also emphasised that the number of military patrols are "gradually decreasing" around the plant.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-29-2023

Key Takeaways

• The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian forces seized the “strategic initiative” in the Bakhmut direction and are currently conducting a broad offensive in the area.
• Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in at least two other sectors of the front and reportedly made gains on June 29.
• The Kremlin may intend to assume formal control over the Wagner Group following its armed rebellion and turn it into a state-owned enterprise, although it is not clear if the Kremlin has committed itself to such a course of action.
• Recent satellite imagery may have detected active construction of a speculated new Wagner Group base in Asipovichy, Belarus.
• Kremlin-affiliated businessmen may be acquiring Prigozhin’s domestic media empire, likely as part of ongoing effort to destroy his reputation in Russia.
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov refused to address Army General Sergei Surovikin’s whereabouts on June 29, prompting more speculations in the Russian information space.
• Western observers continue to speculate about the whereabouts of Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov following Wagner’s rebellion, although his lack of public appearance is not necessarily indicative of his current official standing within the Russian military leadership
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks south of Kreminna.
• Ukrainian forces intensified counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area and reportedly made advances.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front.
• Russian forces in early May constructed a dam on the outskirts of Tokmak in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• A Russian BARS (Russian Combat Reserve) affiliated source claimed that Russian forces are moving military equipment to unspecified areas on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.
• The Crimea-based Atesh partisan group stated that Russian forces are increasing their presence in Armyansk to defend key infrastructure in northern Crimea.
• Russian Cossack armed formations are reportedly signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as part of a larger formalization effort to integrate irregular forces into MoD structures.