Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Military intelligence: Russian occupation forces 'gradually leaving' https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russian-occupation-forces-gradually-leaving-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/**Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

⚡️Ukrainian authorities start training to prepare for possible Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-authorities-start-training-to-prepare-for-possible-russian-attack-on-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant/ Energy workers, medics, rescuers, police, and other services in Kherson, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts are involved in the exercises.

⚡️Military intelligence: 'War between FSB and Russian Defense Ministry in active phase https://kyivindependent.com/intelligence-war-between-fsb-and-russian/

Budanov, told Ukrainska Pravda on June 29 that Wagner Group mercenaries will no longer fight on the territory of Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/intelligence-chief-wagner-group/

According to the news outlet, Surovikin was interrogated over several days and is being kept in one place but not in prison. https://kyivindependent.com/media-surovikin-was-interrogated-and-released/

The International Monetary Fund completed the first review of the extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for Ukraine, allowing the release of $890 million, the IMF informed on June 29. https://kyivindependent.com/imf-to-release/

⚡️World Bank approves $15 billion relief loan to Ukraine. The World Bank approved a $1.5 billion loan to Ukraine on June 29, according to a press release from the organization. https://kyivindependent.com/world-bank/ The Ukraine Relief and Recovery Development Policy Loan, guaranteed by the Japanese government, aims to reduce the impact of Russia's invasion by targeting three areas: relief to households, reforms to transparency over public resources, and support for markets.

The U.S. is close to approving the supply of Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote on June 29, citing U.S. and European officials. https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-us-close-to-providing-atacms-to-ukraine/ [others have disagreed with this]

Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder said that he had "nothing to announce about ATACMS" and was "not aware of any imminent decisions" about the missiles. https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-not-ready-to-talk-about-providing-atacms-to-ukraine/

⚡️FT: EU prepares security commitments for Ukraine, faces opposition. kyivindependent.com/ft-eu-to-offer-security-commitments-to-ukraine/
A France-led initiative in the EU is preparing long-term security commitments for Kyiv to help safeguard Ukraine from future Russian aggression, the Financial Times wrote on June 29.

⚡️Poll: Most Ukrainians have relatives or friends injured or killed https://kyivindependent.com/poll-most-ukrainians-have-relatives-or-friends-injured-or-killed-in-russias-war/ in Russia's war.
Seventy-eight percent of Ukrainians have close relatives or friends who were wounded or killed due to the full-scale Russian invasion, according to a recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).

⚡️Ukraine, other countries file lawsuit against Iran over downed airliner. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-other-countries-file-lawsuit-against-iran-over-downed-airliner/ Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 was hit by two missiles after taking off from Tehran on Jan. 8, 2020. All of its 176 passengers died.

⚡️Human Rights Watch urges Ukraine to investigate its alleged use of banned land mines. https://kyivindependent.com/human-rights-watch/

Russian troops struck a relief center in Kherson on June 29, killing two civilians and injuring two more, according to Kherson Oblast Governor Oleksandr Prokudin. https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russia-hits-relief-center-in-kherson-killing-2-civilians/

The Security Service of Ukraine reported on June 29 that it charged six people over embezzling Hr 400 million ($10.9 million) at the Poltava Mining and Processing Plant. The plant is part of the Ferrexpo group, which belongs to the Ukrainian businessman, billionaire, and former parliament deputy Kostiantyn Zhevago. https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-charges-management/

⚡️Spanish Prime Minister to visit kyivindependent.com/spanish-prime-minister-to-visit-ukraine/

Former U.S. vice president and presidential candidate Mike Pence met Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky in an announced visit to Kyiv on June 29, NBC News reported kyivindependent.com/mike-pence-makes-surprise-visit-to-ukraine/

⚡️Eco-activist Greta Thunberg visits Ukraine meets Zelensky. https://kyivindependent.com/eco-activist-greta-thunberg-visits-ukraine-meets-zelensky/

kyivindependent.com/chechen-veteran-battalion-fighting-russia-when-chechens-are-independent-they-pick-this-side/

The Wagner Group continues to recruit new members in Russian cities despite the recent uprising, the BBC reported on June 29. https://kyivindependent.com/bbc-wagner-continues-to-recruit-in-russia/

A much quieter day yesterday.

Sigh, sorry about the italics. Dont know what happened.

The latest news on Russian occupation forces gradually leaving Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is very disturbing. I am inclined to think it is very bad news. Why would Russia voluntarily give up a key military and strategic hub unless they were going to scorch the earth.

It is right that Ukraine prepares for an attack on the plant.

Feel utterly helpless. Russia is going to get away with it again.

Is it possible that because of the dam damage that the plant is running short of water for cooling and the reactors will all have to be completely/permanently shut-down so that it is an asset no longer worth defending?

@Efacsen @BringBackCoffeeCreams Coffee? any idea about this?

My own guess is that they really might blow it because it would make things more difficult for Ukraine and because they are vindictive.

I'm worried, verging on very worried, that we haven't heard from the IAEA and Mr Gossi.

The Russians weren't there to defend the asset (I laugh at the thought).

They were damaged the site, held the employees hostage, used it to store miltary equipment at the risk of safety and used it has a shield against military attacks by Ukraine. After all, Ukraine will not take the risk to strike at a nuclear power plant.

They took unacceptable risks with the safety of the plant, stole the electricity and turned it into a miltary hub. So much so the UN had to send the IAEA inspection team to visit the plant periodically to ensure safety.

Their leaving it hints that they could have worse plans for it. Since when has Russia given something up voluntarily. This is hardly a 'gesture of goodwill' to sneak away.

It was always going to be a scary moment when the Ru retreat from Zaporizhzhia but I've got a bad feeling about this.

Hope I'm wrong

I have a bad feeling but at the same time the quicker the Russians are no longer in control of it the better.

If Ukraine advance Russia have to retreat from the plant at some point.

Agree it was always going to be a scary moment.

The insistence yesterday they wouldn't do anything at the plant is worrying too. It's Russia...

Plus the Ukrainians have been saying they have intelligence suggesting they will.

The Wagner crisis doesn't help the mood.

Nothing about the situation is good. But it's an inevitable point none the less.

IDK but they will have to be very careful which way the wind is blowing as it's so near the Russian border and other states

Maybe I'm wrong but I thought that after the dam was destroyed Mr Gossi visited to assess the water in the coolant reservoir that a representative of the IAEA was tasked with continuing monitoring of the reservoir

In many ways it's a bit of a white elephant for Russia now as they aren't able to steal the electricity even tho' they've deprived Ukraine of it as the reactors are virtually in a state of almost complete shutdown

Given the extent of boobytrapping of civilian homes when the Russians withdrew early on from areas like Bucha, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the nuclear plant were boobytrapped.

Max win for the Russians:

1. blows the plant
2. allows their propaganda to say that it was Ukrainians who blew the plant ("we woz nowhere near it, guv")
3. kills Ukrainians who are in or near the plant when it blows
4. if all else fails and the Ukrainians successfully demine it, any plant failures which occur due to inability to maintain it safely until demining is complete will also be blamed on Ukrainians ("it worked fine while we had it")

Maybe I'm wrong but I thought that after the dam was destroyed Mr Gossi visited to assess the water in the coolant reservoir that a representative of the IAEA was tasked with continuing monitoring of the reservoir

He did. There are backup plans too to replenish the reservoir with tanked-in water.

From then until now there have been no further signs of worry about the reservoir. So perhaps that's a good sign about that ... but ...

The great worry is that Russia had already mined the plant and in the last days have mined it further.

@PerkingFaintly it will also significantly affect Ukrainian operations because they will have to divert very significant resources to handle it.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

❗️The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia said that Ukraine is preparing to carry out a terrorist attack on the ZNPP

Germany updated the list of military aid provided to Ukraine:
— 1 "TRML-4D" medium-range radar;
— 3 bridges for bridging; APC "BIBER";
— demining equipment;
— trucks and cars of the border service.

The Russian invaders created a new military base in the temporarily occupied Feodosia.
Due to the fact that Feodosia is located relatively close to the Kerch Strait and the Crimean Bridge, this harbor acquires strategic importance for the Russian invaders.

The Chinese balloon did not collect intelligence during its February 2023 flight over the United States, Pentagon spokesman Patrick Ryder said.

It's a shame when one says that the offensive is slow, because every meter is achieve with blood, — Zaluzhnyi, in an interview with WP
He emphasized that for a faster advance of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, more is needed — more of all types of weapons, as well as air superiority — F-16 fighters.
According to him, without the army's full support, these plans cannot be implemented at all, but despite everything, "they are being implemented."

Putin is no longer the sole "master in the city" and has lost his monopoly on power, — CNN, citing the head of the European diplomacy, Josep Borrell.
According to Borrell, the "Wagner" mutiny weakened the power of the President of the Russian Federation, and it is time for the world community to realize the consequences of this situation.
"A weak Putin now poses a great danger, as an unstable Russia becomes a threat," Borrell emphasizes.

We must prepare for the fact that the war in Ukraine can continue for a long time, — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
“The collective West must prepare for a long war in Ukraine. It is essential to show that we are ready to support financial and humanitarian support for Ukraine, as well as the supply of weapons in the long term,” Scholz said. [ so fgs give Uraine the weopons it really needs to do the job!]

⚡️ Bellingcat satellite images show that Russia built a dam on the outskirts of occupied Tokmak in Zaporizhzhia region.
It is likely that Russians are considering the tactics of flooding the city. Since the construction of the dam, the Tokmachka River has flooded nearby fields.

The particular representative of Pope Francis, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, met with the children's ombudsman of the Russian Federation, Maria Lvova-Belova, whose arrest warrant was issued by the International Criminal Court.
According to her, they discussed humanitarian issues related to military actions and the protection of children's rights [Supping with the Devil, Zuppi? I thought that was against your job description]

"Moscow is not going to blow up the Zaporizhzhia NPP. A corresponding letter has been distributed to the UN Security Council," — Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the UN
And this is said by those who did not intend to invade Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron has left the EU summit in Brussels and canceled his press conference, now heading to a government meeting on the unrest in the country, — AFP.

Donald Trump said that Ukraine may have to cede some territory to Russia to stop the war.

On the Russian map: the offices of the "Wagners", which are still working and claim that "everything is as usual".

❗️The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia said that Ukraine is preparing to carry out a terrorist attack on the ZNPP

Shit.

So they are preparing the ground for the lie after they attack/sabotage it themselves?
Sorry I feel very dim, I like to make sure I understand what's going on. I learn a lot here that I can't learn anywhere else it seems.

Yes, exactly that.

They have consistently lied from the early days when they said they weren't going to invade, to blaming Ukraine for the invasion (!) to blaming them for things they have done like blowing the Kakhovka Dam. (the consensus now is that it was less likely to be poor maintenance and much more likely to be Russians letting off explosives.)

You are not dim - it's confusing with all the Russian lies. It's hard, really hard, to believe that a country will consistently and deliberately lie like this.

Eh, seems that the Reservoir will be the target, though inside the buildings has also been mined

Maria Drutska
AT maria_drutska (she's a defense sector journalism in Ukraine)

From a technical standpoint, russia has prepared everything to stage a technological disaster at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, - Budanov [ Ukrainian head of Military Intelligence] for@thewarzonewire
The part of the station that they are most likely to blow up if a decision is made, is the artificial reservoir on the station's territory that provides cooling. So, what they plan to do is damage a link in the system, which will subsequently cause this technological catastrophe that no one will be able to stop or mitigate. Because search & rescue operations in a combat zone are impossible. - Will they go through with it? - They are fully prepared for this.

Thanks Ducks, really appreciate it.
Nasty nasty moment. Yes even knowing everything I know I still find it hard to believe they will cynically do these things again and again. I have a belief in the goodness of people as well as an understanding of how much shit human beings can do and are capable of and my mind gets a bit blown from time to time not being able to grasp it all.

I hope that as the Ukrainian leadership and their allies know at least as much as us about the situation (hopefully more), they have expected and planned for this. I would expect troops in the area to have everything they need in an emergency.

I would be more surprised if the Russians haven't meddled to cause a problem, than to discover that they have, given their leaders behave like toddlers with no concept of true leadership.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Ukraine's future membership in the Alliance will be discussed after the July summit in Vilnius. He is confident that the allies "will send a very strong signal of support to Ukraine."

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said that Ukraine will not receive "any discounts" on its way to the EU and must fulfill all the criteria for starting accession talks

⚡️⚡️The Ukrainian Armed Forces officially confirmed a strike on the airfield of occupied Berdiansk. The Russian headquarters and a fuel and lubricant depot were destroyed.

The unsuccessful march of the Wagnerites on Moscow did not affect the counteroffensive or fighting at the front - Ukrainian forces did not feel that the occupiers' defense had weakened, Zaluzhnyi said in an interview with The Washington Post

After Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny, his "troll factory" was paralyzed for almost a week. Russian security forces seized all the equipment from all the organization's offices in St. Petersburg. The Bell writes that the "factory" is now looking for a new owner. https://thebell.global.ssl.fastly.net/fabrike-trolley-i-media-imperii-evgeniya-prigozhina-ishchut-novogo-vladeltsa

🇨🇿🇷🇺 The Czech government has banned athletes and teams representing Russia from competing in competitions on Czech territory. The decision is related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

⚡️⚡️The Ukrainian Armed Forces officially confirmed a strike on the airfield of occupied Berdiansk. The Russian headquarters and a fuel and lubricant depot were destroyed.

What is a "ballistic trajectory"? And what other trajectories are there? A small guide to how Russian missiles fly.

With whom did Ukraine trade in 2022?
1️⃣Russia is in first place in terms of imports, even in a year of full-scale war. But most likely, these are the results of the first January and February. Obviously, in 2023, we will no longer see this country on the list of trading partners.
(Are you also betting on Poland?)
2️⃣Economically, European integration has already taken place: Europe is our main partner in both imports and exports.

@BringBackCoffeeCreams is there a chance you can ask your husband what the parameters are?

What the worst-case scenario actually is - are we talking Chernobyl radiation? better? worse?

Best-case scenario?

Effects of the wind?

The reactors are cooling now - given that, what is the most likely result of the Russians blowing it up?

I already asked him. I'll double check when he gets home, but I think he said worse case scenario would be around 100th of what happened with Chernobyl. Any impact will be limited to around 30 km of the plant, which I believe ties in with the planned for evacution zone.

Obviously he doesn't want anything to happen, but he's not worried about if it does, beyond concern for the families who will be displaced and the fuckwittery of deliberately creating another 'no-go' zone.

..... ok and thank God - it's massively significantly less destructive than Chernobyl then.

Thanks a LOT.

That's reassuring but bear in mind sheep were unfit for consumption in N Wales for years after Chernobyl so 100th is not insignificant