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Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

986 replies

MagicFox · 24/06/2023 13:32

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

**

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145
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/06/2023 13:41

GCalltheway · 28/06/2023 13:06

I think we may be able to take from this that certain key players are preparing for the start of a settled negotiation to end the war. This kind of thing is often used to soften up the most stubborn side and bring the parties to the table.

This was not blurted out randomly without reason. This is an indication of something subtly shifting in my view.

Hmm, definitely something to watch then.

Many (though certainly not all) high ranking military seem to think that Ukraine might well get back all its 2014 borders. The civilians seem a lot less sure; what you're saying would fit with that :/

Natsku · 28/06/2023 13:46

The UN accused Ukraine of violating human rights
All because the security forces, as the organization claims, "arbitrarily deprived the freedom" of collaborators who cooperated with the Russians.
The UN believes that the arrests are illegal.

Wow, that is fucked up

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/06/2023 13:47

SlightlyShostakovich · 28/06/2023 12:31

Does this, will this, all boil down to being a regional conflict about who controls the plundering of African natural resources? While other nations like the US and the UK try not to be drawn in while appalling things continue to happen in Ukraine, in Africa, in Syria?

And then, after the conflict, comes the carving up of territory.

well ... to me that's what it looks like; getting African leaders on their side so the flow of riches can continue to Russia, which ofc gives them more leverage generally.

If a leader isn't co-operative, well, they have very well tried and tested methods to foment unrest and rebellion and the chaos until the leader says oh, we need some military to help us keep our mining operations working, now who could we turn to?

I think it's more carving up of influence than territory as such.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/06/2023 14:10

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Stoltenberg is likely to remain as NATO Secretary General for another year, despite his repeatedly expressed desire to hand over the leadership to another person, Euractiv reports, citing four Alliance diplomats.

❗️❗️Switzerland has rejected Ruag's request to sell 96 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine. The Federal Council explained this as a violation of the neutrality policy. [cowardly scum]

SBU detains corrector of Russian missile strike on Kramatorsk
The detainee is an agent of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. On June 27, he was tasked with finding out whether the aforementioned cafe was open and recording the presence of visitors.

Putin's statement regarding the "Ukrainian losses just in the past 7 days" - "280 vehicles, including 41 tanks and over 100 armoured cars".

Russia is holding 126 Ukrainian women in captivity, including 46 military and 80 civilians.

29 regions of the country have smaller annual budgets than the mercenaries of the Wagner PMC — Russian media. Mercenaries were better funded than many regions of Russia. If the PMC was one of the state-owned entities, then by budget expenditures it would be between the Kirov (87.3 billion rubles), and Penza Oblast (81.2 billion rubles).

Putin gathered Russian servicemen in the Kremlin to reward those who "stopped" Prigozhin's mutiny.
In addition, the head of the Rosgvardia, Viktor Zolotov, said that the Rosgvardia would receive heavy weapons, including tanks.

If Russia collapses, we will be left under the rubble, we will all die - Lukashenko

In his speech to the Verkhovna Rada, Zelensky emphasized the need to legalize medical cannabis in Ukraine.

Over the past week, the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 9 Russian ammunition depots and 11 military bases. Or maybe even more, but information about them did not get to open sources.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 42
Surplus2requirements · 28/06/2023 15:17

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

❗️❗️Switzerland has rejected Ruag's request to sell 96 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine. The Federal Council explained this as a violation of the neutrality policy. [cowardly scum]

I thought they'd tweaked some legislation to bypass their neutrality laws a few weeks ago??

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/06/2023 16:24

They were working on it, it was bouncing between their upper and lower levels of political governance. Seems they came down on the side of making money no matter what again. Wouldn't do to risk their Russian contacts.

Alighttouchonthetiller · 28/06/2023 16:43

Do you folks in the know have any news about that frothing looper, Medvedev? I just read on Sky news that he hasn't been seen since Saturday and his private plane went to Oman and hasn't returned. Has he done a runner? Putin won't like that...

RedToothBrush · 28/06/2023 17:28

Look Mum. I went to the Madame Tussauds and look who I met!

Ukraine Invasion: Part 42
CaveMum · 28/06/2023 17:57

Also, don’t know if anyone else subscribes to The Africa Brief newsletter (I’ve only just started having heard it recommended on TRIP) but they did a fascinating (and terrifying) newsletter last week which talked about the extent of Russia’s (and Wagner’s) involvement in Africa. Truly horrifying to read that Wagner owns gold and diamond mines in Sudan and CAR.

https://theafricabrief.beehiiv.com/p/special-edition-rebellion-russia

Africa & War in Ukraine

Special Edition | Rebellion in Russia

Africa & War in Ukraine

https://theafricabrief.beehiiv.com/p/special-edition-rebellion-russia

Mb76 · 28/06/2023 18:49

CaveMum · 28/06/2023 17:57

Also, don’t know if anyone else subscribes to The Africa Brief newsletter (I’ve only just started having heard it recommended on TRIP) but they did a fascinating (and terrifying) newsletter last week which talked about the extent of Russia’s (and Wagner’s) involvement in Africa. Truly horrifying to read that Wagner owns gold and diamond mines in Sudan and CAR.

https://theafricabrief.beehiiv.com/p/special-edition-rebellion-russia

This is terrifying

MissConductUS · 28/06/2023 18:54

The topic of popular sentiment in America about direct military support for Ukraine hasn't come up much since the last elections, but according to a recent poll it's very solid and increasing. That could have something to do with the current instability in Russia.

This will be a warning to the relatively few politicians who are a bit wobbly about it.

Most Americans support US arming Ukraine, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows

Bradley Fighting Vehicles of the U.S. army get offloaded from cargo vessel ARC Integrity, after their arrival at the harbour in Bremerhaven, Germany, February 10, 2023. REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer//File Photo

Most Americans support US arming Ukraine, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows

Solid majorities of Americans support providing weaponry to Ukraine to defend itself against Russia and believe that such aid demonstrates to China and other U.S. rivals a will to protect U.S. interests and allies, according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey.

https://www.reuters.com/world/most-americans-support-us-arming-ukraine-reutersipsos-2023-06-28

Chatillon · 28/06/2023 22:06

Alighttouchonthetiller · 28/06/2023 16:43

Do you folks in the know have any news about that frothing looper, Medvedev? I just read on Sky news that he hasn't been seen since Saturday and his private plane went to Oman and hasn't returned. Has he done a runner? Putin won't like that...

Given the UK have many, many spies in Oman his intelligence is way out.

Unless he is meeting some Brits there. Not wholly unimaginable actually.

blueshoes · 28/06/2023 22:40

Natsku · 28/06/2023 13:46

The UN accused Ukraine of violating human rights
All because the security forces, as the organization claims, "arbitrarily deprived the freedom" of collaborators who cooperated with the Russians.
The UN believes that the arrests are illegal.

Wow, that is fucked up

If this is true, UN has now gone Full Amnesty. Bloody useless organisation. What is the point of them?

blueshoes · 28/06/2023 22:41

CaveMum · 28/06/2023 22:17

Eye opening article written by a Russian diplomat who defected after the invasion of Ukraine

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/sources-russia-misconduct-boris-bondarev

Interesting read. Thanks for sharing.

blueshoes · 28/06/2023 22:46

MissConductUS · 28/06/2023 20:14

Survovikin is likely in prison now, thanks to intelligence leaks that he knew about the Wagner mutiny.

This is good news. He's one of their most competent general officers. And he may implicate other highly placed officers, and they'll get arrested too.

https://nypost.com/2023/06/28/russian-general-who-knew-about-mutiny-is-missing-report/

Wagner gone, General Armeggedon gone. Battlefield is shaping up pleasingly.

Igotjelly · 29/06/2023 08:45

Netanyhu has confirmed that Israel will not be giving Iron Dome to Ukraine, and has not given the US permission to give it. Reason given is that they can't risk it falling into Russian, and thus potentially Iranian, hands. Disappointing.

Natsku · 29/06/2023 08:48

blueshoes · 28/06/2023 22:40

If this is true, UN has now gone Full Amnesty. Bloody useless organisation. What is the point of them?

Not seeing much point to them right now, the whole idea of the UN was to prevent wars like this but they can't do anything.

Mb76 · 29/06/2023 09:28

Natsku · 29/06/2023 08:48

Not seeing much point to them right now, the whole idea of the UN was to prevent wars like this but they can't do anything.

Quite. And the fact that Russia still has a seat at their table. Complete farce.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 29/06/2023 10:39

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 28/06/2023 12:32

UNITED24 Media Telegram

⚡️Stoltenberg will remain NATO Secretary General for another year, — Euractiv

China is not against Ukraine coming back to the border of 1991, — Al Jazeera with reference to China's ambassador to the EU, Fu Kong.
"No matter what. We respect the territorial integrity of all countries. But these are historical issues that should be discussed and resolved by Russia and Ukraine, and this is what we stand for," Fu Kong said. [Does this mark a change in stance in China? or is it more toffee-sweet, no-nutrition shake?]

US announces new military aid package for Ukraine worth up to $500 million, — Pentagon [see below]

🇳🇱🇺🇦 The Netherlands signed a contract for 111 million euros with the Belgian company FN Herstal for 7.62 mm FN MAG machine guns for the Ukrainian army. The Ministry of Defense of the Netherlands does not specify the exact number and delivery dates.

HENSOLDT will deliver 4 more TRML-4D radars of Diehl Defense to the Armed Forces. The radars are designed for Ukrainian IRIS-T SLM air defense systems.

British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace:
“During its summer campaign, Ukraine has already liberated approximately 300 km² of its territory. That's more than Russia captured in its entire winter campaign."

Lukashenko expects that the commanders from the "Wagner" PMC will share their experience and help the armed forces of Belarus to improve their skills

Putin just now: "From government budget, we fully funded ["Wagner" Private Military Company]. Only from May 2022-May 2023, the government paid them 86,262 billion roubles." This is almost $1 billion.

Russian military police detain Wagner PMC commanders in different parts of Syria
According to the Al-Hadath TV channel, we are talking about four detentions in Al-Suweida in southern Syria, as well as at the Khmeimim airbase.

⚡️Kramatorsk: the number of dead as a result of missile fire has increased to eight
"As of 7:00 a.m. on June 28, the bodies of 8 dead people (including three children, two born in 2008 and 2011) were unblocked from under the rubble of the destroyed cafe building, and 56 people were injured (including one child born in 2022). Three people were saved," the State Emergency Service reports.

⚡️President of Lithuania Nauseda arrived on an unannounced visit to Kyiv,

⚡️ Duda arrived with an unannounced visit to Kyiv, — Office of the President of Poland

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his opinion, is not a war criminal.
Ukraine, according to the head of the Hungarian government, "is no longer a sovereign state, the achievement of peace depends on the United States." He also said that "the EU has not succeeded in sanctions either to bring Russia to its knees or to achieve peace in Ukraine." [what a bloated toad he is]

The UN accused Ukraine of violating human rights
All because the security forces, as the organization claims, "arbitrarily deprived the freedom" of collaborators who cooperated with the Russians.
The UN believes that the arrests are illegal. [I'd ask 'could they possibly become less credible than they are' but there was a disturbing UN report that while Russians kill Ukrainian children - so do Ukrainians. I don't know what's behind that and I'm not willing to believe it without more info but it is not something to ignore]

Ukraine's Constitution turns 27 today. Written in 1996, it contains language that resonates today as never before. The words like the "right to life", "freedom of citizens", "honor" and "dignity", 'the land' have become vitally important for Ukrainians.

This photo shows two sisters who died as a result of the Russian missile attack on Kramatorsk

The French literary and artistic magazine Charlie Hebdo dedicated a new cover to the recent events in Russia.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar
The UN accused Ukraine of violating human rights
All because the security forces, as the organization claims, "arbitrarily deprived the freedom" of collaborators who cooperated with the Russians.
The UN believes that the arrests are illegal.

Have they said in what way they are illegal, as arrests? All arrests deprive the people arrested of their freedom, but if a charge has been brought against the arrested, or a genuine reason given, then it isn't arbitrary, and if it is in line with the law of the country making the arrests it isn't illegal. So they also need to specify under what law of what authority arresting collaborators is illegal.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/06/2023 10:42

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime No, I didn't see any more info and tbh I don't follow everything up - there is a danger sometimes of getting sucked too far in.

What worries me even more than this farce though is the UN comments on Ukrainians killing children. There was no more info on that either and a claim like that is incendiary.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/06/2023 10:57

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2023

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12pm ET on June 28.

Key Takeaways

  • Continued reporting about the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion suggests that involved parties may still be negotiating the specifics of the agreement.
  • Russian sources speculated that Wagner’s rebellion is already having widespread impacts on the Russian command structure.
  • Russian authorities reportedly arrested Army General Sergei Surovikin on June 28, possibly indicating that the Kremlin intends to purge the MoD of figures viewed as disloyal. [it's now uncertain if he has actually been arrested]
  • The Kremlin will likely attempt to balance a desire to mitigate the widespread disdain for MoD establishment figures that fueled Wagner’s rebellion while also trying to disempower those who may have sympathized with the rebellion.
  • The Russian Duma is considering additional measures to increase control over the information space and promote self-censorship within broad internet communities.
  • Belarus formally ratified an agreement on the establishment of joint Russian-Belarusian training centers in Belarus on June 28.
  • Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held a phone conversation with the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran Major General Mohammad Bagheri on June 28.
  • Unconfirmed reports claim that Russian military police allegedly detained Wagner Group commanders in Syria.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least four sectors of the front.
  • Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces conducted a strike on civilian infrastructure in Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast on the night of June 27.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and conducted limited probing attacks on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River near the Antonivsky Bridge in Kherson Oblast on June 27 and 28.
  • Russian sources reported on continued Russian efforts to clarify terms and conditions for military service.
  • Russian and occupation officials continue efforts to deconflict legal discrepancies as part of the incorporation of occupied territories.

Rumours: ...The milblogger emphasized that Gerasimov will retain his post as Chief of the General Staff but will no longer have responsibilities for Russian operations in Ukraine.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 42