Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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Offing Prig would be about the only thing that would make Putin look better, so not unreasonable to assume that's the plan. Of course where does that leave the Wagner group? Am I being too optimistic thinking a directionless W group, and crap Russian army can only be good news for Ukraine?

So is the thinking that the Belarusians lulled him into a false sense of security and knocked him off when he arrived?

Putin and his henchmen, it is a game, I wouldn't be surprised if it were a trap. Putin employs like-minded people do his dirty deeds, it is bound to cave in.

The kremlin clearly the anchor he needs to keep in power - do you think they will get the daggers out for Putin as well? Who runs the kremlin? Putin?

I wonder if offing Prig would lead to some of Wagner taking it out on Russian troops. He seems to have had a lot of personal loyalty, some of which is gone but not all.

Honestly, right now I iamgine he's extremely busy re-arranging his life. He used to work in the shadows, nows he's gone back into them, possibly only temporarily and perhaps we'll see him again once he's found his feet again.

Do we know that he is still alive?

I don't think anyone has confirmed he's alive, no.

There’s not much point (for Putin) in offing Prig and not telling anyone, is there? It very much needs to be done in the context of an emphatic point being made!

He’s probably best advised to avoid walking near any open windows or accepting cups of tea for the time being…

I seriously doubt he is is a place where cups of tea are offered or where he's in a position to open the windows.

Am very busy with work, so only keeping half an eye on things.

Main VK feed for Wagner was blocked by 'request of Roskomnadzor on the basis of the decision of the General Prosecutor's Office of the Russian Federation dated June 24...'

Roskomnadzor supervises communication in Russia.

Wagner Group Telegram feed still posting. But it has a different mix to, say, last week. Plus there is MORE. Last post half an hour ago. Post in image is of this morning's UK front pages (time stamp is UK time).

Really interesting and (to me) informative discussion on now on BBC Radio 4 'World At One'.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001n8d0

Includes a Russian chap (didn't get his name) who says he will stand against Putin in next year's presidential election.

I'm going to re-listen later as too much to take in all at once.

I have always assumed that the main Wagner feeds were Prigozhin himself, or more often a trusted lackey who looked after the feed under his direction. The current feed from Telegram doesn't feel like the same person.

TASS is saying that the investigation into Prizhogin continues. Link:

Источник подтвердил продолжение расследования дела в отношении Пригожина (tass.ru)

The leftmost (newest?) Special Feature on the TASS site is a lengthy article on how the first Romanov Tsar was chosen (after the end of the house of Rurik / Godunov interlude). There's plenty on the False Dmitri, including a map of his campaign as he heads to Moscow, with two supporting Cossack hosts joining him (the broken lines). Very droll. Link:

Как в России выбирали государя и выбрали Михаила Фёдоровича Романова (tass.ru)

I agree. Putin would need to create something symbolic. He would really need to 'hammer' it home.

(I'll get my coat....)

Looks like the West are getting the blame

That was always going to happen.

It's always the "collective west"'s fault

I think this was the trigger. The Russians likely think that the reason the US intelligence agencies knew about coup was because they were behind it. They don't want to believe that the CIA/NSA can listen to everything they and Wagner say and communicate online.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/russia-coup-wagner-putin-intelligence-b2363901.html

As if Russia would take responsibility for itself.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-25-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian sources speculated on the specifics of the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s June 23-24 armed rebellion, including the possible involvement of Putin’s chief of staff.
• The implications of the Lukashenko-Prigozhin deal for the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) also remain ambiguous.
• Wagner forces continued to withdraw from positions in Rostov and on the road to Moscow to their bases on June 25, and the Kremlin’s intended structure for leveraging Wagner fighters remains unclear.
• Further details emerged on the composition of the Wagner units approaching Moscow on June 24, indicating Prigozhin would likely have struggled in an active conflict in Moscow without additional support.
• The Russian ultranationalist information space fractured on June 25 between those who want to move past the rebellion and those demanding solutions to the internal security flaws that the rebellion exposed.
• The ultranationalist Angry Patriots Club held a pre-scheduled event in Moscow on June 25 and espoused longstanding criticisms against Putin and the Russian military leadership, suggesting that the Kremlin will not immediately begin cracking down on antagonistic ultranationalist groups in the aftermath of Prigozhin’s rebellion.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front.
• Russian forces’ ability to conduct offensive and defensive operations in Ukraine does not appear to have been substantially impacted by Wagner’s June 23-24 armed rebellion.
• Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov warned on June 23 that Russia has finished preparations for an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
• A Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempted to cross the international border into Sumy Oblast.
• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks near Svatove, Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Donetsk and western Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain positions near the Antonivskyi Bridge in Kherson Oblast.
• Ukrainian officials continue to report that Russia relies on sanctions evasion schemes to acquire foreign components for weapons production.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to weaponize policy regarding children to consolidate social and administrative control of occupied areas.

@MissConductUS sorry I've just read this sentence of yours three times and I'm very tired but I can't work out what you mean. The Russians likely think that the reason the US intelligence agencies knew about coup was because they were behind it. Do you mean the Russians were behind it themselves (a faction of) or that the US were behind it?
Tired brain.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Reznikov: Ukraine's main counteroffensive is yet to come. https://kyivindependent.com/reznikov-ukraines-main-counteroffensive-is-yet-to-come/

On June 21, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported that the EBRD would support the Ukrainian energy sector with a 600 million euro aid package in 2023; On June 20, Ukroboronprom reported about the successful use of a Ukraine-produced drone with a 1,000 km range; and more. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-state-owned-enterprises-weekly-issue-94/

Ukraine's forces have "gained impetus" in attacks around Bakhmut, advancing on the city's northern and southern flanks, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on June 26. Also over the weekend, Ukrainian troops have advanced one to two kilometers in the areas of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bakhmut, Bohdanivka, Yahidne, Klishchiivka, and Kurdiumivka. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-forces-reportedly-advance-north-south-of-bakhmut/

Ukraine's Armed Forces have liberated the village of Rivnopil in Donetsk Oblast, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said on June 26.

The Wagner Group mercenaries downed six Russian army helicopters and one plane on June 24, Yurii Ihnat, Ukraine’s Air Force spokesman, told the national television on June 25.
Russia lost two attack helicopters and four transport ones https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-air-force-wagner-troops-down-6-russian-army-helicopters-1-plane-on-june-24/ [I wonder what will happen to all Wagner's weopons, bearing in mind they got a lot from the Russian MoD]

The Australian government announced a new aid package for Ukraine worth 110 million Australian dollars (about $74 million), which includes both military and humanitarian assistance, the Guardian reported on June 26. https://kyivindependent.com/australia-announces-74-million-aid-package-for-ukraine/

Russian forces attacked southern Kherson Oblast with KAB-500 guided munition, Ukraine’s military Southern Command reported on June 25. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-hit-kherson-oblast-with-500-kilogram-guided-bombs/

The Dnipro River in Kherson has returned to its banks after the flooding caused by the Russian June 6 Kakhovka Dam destruction, the Environment Ministry reported on June 25. https://kyivindependent.com/ministry-dnipro-river-returns-to-its-banks-in-kherson-after-flooding-caused-by-kakhovka-dam-explosion/

⚡️General Staff: Russian sabotage group fails to cross Ukrainian border in Sumy Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russia-subversive-reconnaissance-group-fails-to-cross-ukrainian-border-in-sumy-oblast/

⚡️Explosions reported in Odesa.

The Ukrainian embassy in Israel accused the country of “close cooperation” with Russia in a statement published on June 25. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-embassy-accuses-israel-of-pro-russian-position-israel-prepares-response/

The National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) reported detaining Ternopil Oblast Council head Mykhailo Holovko and two deputies of the regional administration for accepting a bribe. The suspects demanded almost Hr 1.8 million ($48,000) from a businessman for signing the acts for constructing and repairing infrastructure facilities. https://kyivindependent.com/nabu-detains-head-of-ternopil-oblast-council-over-bribery-allegations/

⚡️Former Kherson Oblast Council head convicted for ordering murder https://kyivindependent.com/ex-head-of-kherson-oblast-council-convicted-for-ordering-murder-of-local-activist-kateryna-handziuk/ of local activist Kateryna Handziuk.
Kyiv's Dniprovskyi District Court announced the verdict in the case of the murder of Kherson activist Kateryna Handziuk on June 26.

Russian troops killed two 16-year-olds, Tihran Ohannisian, and Mykyta Khanhanov, in a shootout in the occupied Berdiansk, Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on June 25. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-reportedly-kills-two-ukrainian-teenagers-in-occupied-berdiansk-ukrainian-launches-investigation/

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on June 25 that the Polish military had strengthened the defensive lines on the country's eastern borders with Belarus and more than 230 kilometers of the border with Russia's Kaliningrad Oblast in the northeast. https://kyivindependent.com/ghost/#/editor/post/64987a0b354121defae7e6c1

Very high personnel losses again, quite a lot of hardware.

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - JUN 26
Big troop losses (4th highest this month);
:
950 troop losses
7-day troop average: 733
Equipment losses: $30M
57 landbased losses
7-day average: 74

They think the US CIA are behind it

Not sure whether it’s been pointed out( apologies if so) but Prig in Belarus would be approximately 100km from Kyiv according to some Polish tweets

Oh I get it now. I've been looking after my 2 and a half year old granddaughter while her parents were partying at Glastonbury AND trying to stay on top of understanding this so I'm a bit of a scrambled mess right now. 😂