Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

**

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

AT TWMCLtd
#Ukraine says #Russia is losing 8 times more soldiers then they are. Dep Defence Min Malyar added: "Our aviation, missile forces and artillery over the past week have carried out 110 strikes on enemy personnel concentration areas."

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Russian troops placed equipment with explosives near 4 out of 6 power units of the ZNPP, — the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Budanov.

A peace conference regarding Ukraine was held in Denmark under conditions of secrecy
According to Deutschlandfunk, in addition to representatives of Western countries, representatives of China, India, Brazil, and South Africa were also present. At the same time, the Danish mass media report that the initiative to hold the conference came from Kyiv.

Australia will provide Ukraine with a new military aid package, including 70 armored vehicles, — Reuters.
The source said the new aid package would include 28 M113 armored vehicles, 14 special-purpose vehicles, 28 medium trucks, and 14 trailers. Also, Australia will extend duty-free access for goods imported from Ukraine for another 12 months.

🇭🇺Hungary has again blocked a 500 million euro tranche of EU military aid to Ukraine
As reported by Reuters with reference to the Minister of Foreign Affairs Szijarto, this decision was made due to the inclusion in Ukraine of the Hungarian OTP Bank in the list of international sponsors of the war.
Budapest will unblock the tranche if the bank is delisted, Szijarto said.

The ambassadors of the European Union approved an additional 3.5 billion euros for the European Peace Fund, from which the community allocates military aid to Ukraine, — the press service of the Swedish Presidency of the Council of the EU. [military aid from the Peace Fund? that's a bit Orwellian]

⚡️Training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets has begun, the Danish government said.

⚠️ The Russians dropped a chemical aerosol suffocating munition on the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the wind was in the direction of the occupiers, — the spokesman of the joint press center of the Defense Forces of the Tavriia direction Valery Shershen

💥 At night, the Air Force destroyed two Kalibr cruise missiles, 7 Shahed-type attack UAVs, and four unspecified drones.
In total, three "Kalibr" and eight "Shahed" drones were launched

Prigozhin representatives said he is "not in touch", — Russian Media

The Russian authorities have not closed the criminal case against Prigozhin, the FSB continues to investigate the case of sedition, — the Russian media "Kommersant"

"I don't think this is the last episode," Blinken said of the attempted coup in Russia

The US expected "much more bloodshed" in Russia, — CNN citing a high-ranking American official.
The interlocutor of the journalists noted that when American intelligence learned about the intention of the leader of the "Wagner" PMK, they expected that his march to Moscow would meet much more resistance.

Presidents Zelenskyy and Duda discussed the impact of the "mutiny" in Russia on the war in Ukraine.

Zelenskyy had a conversation with Biden

Lockheed Martin and Rheinmetall want to offer European countries new MLRS based on HIMARS
The GMARS project proposed by defense companies would have two missile units, not one like HIMARS. That is, with the new anti-aircraft missile system, it will be possible to fire 12 missiles in one volley.

🇩🇪 Germany opposes EU plan to use frozen Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine, — Financial Times
As the publication writes, the country fears the legal and financial consequences that such a decision may cause.
However, all EU countries agree that the frozen assets of the Russian Federation should be used in the legal field.

The British government is considering preparations for the scenario of an unexpected collapse of Russia.

Mobile operators of Ukraine will reserve the numbers of the dead or missing defenders
This means that the number will not go on sale for 2 years.

Apologies, I plead a severe coffee deficit. What I meant to say was that The Russians likely think that the reason the US intelligence agencies knew about coup was because they knew about it before hand.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The Wagner Center in Novosibirsk has resumed recruiting people, and advertising posters have been hung at its entrance again [ok that's really weird]

❗️❗️Belarus began to build camps to accommodate the fighters of the "Wagner" PMC. Russian publication Verstka (https://t.me/svobodnieslova/2297) confirmed the construction of the camp in Asipovichy in Mogilev region for 8 thousand fighters. There will be several camps. [so there we have the answer - yes, Wagnerians are going to Belorus]
Construction of a military camp for the mercenaries of the Wagner PMC is already in full swing in the Mogilev region of Belarus, said the Forestry Department of Mogilev region. According to the interlocutor, there will be several camps, one of which will be located near the town of Asipovichy.

Wagnerites can attack Kyiv from Belarus - former Chief of the British General Staff
For former Chief of the British Army General Staff Richard Dannatt, the fact that Prigozhin traveled to Belarus by agreement with the self-proclaimed Belarusian president "is a matter of some concern." If he "has retained a combat-ready force around him, then he is again a threat to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kyiv," Dannatt added, noting that Russia "may well" use the Wagner PMC for another attempt to take Kyiv.

The Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev, assures that there is no build-up of equipment or manpower in the north of Ukraine, and if the enemy tries to cross the border from the north, it will be suicide for him.

🇩🇰 Denmark will retire its F-16 fighter jets in 2025, two years ahead of schedule. This will bring the transfer of these aircraft to Ukraine closer. As Ukrainian pilots prepare for training, the government will consider the number of fighter jets it can transfer in the future.

British intelligence sources say Russian intelligence services threatened to harm the families of Wagner leaders before Yevgeny Prigozhin stopped his "offensive on Moscow" - The Telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/yevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family/

“This is a serious blow to the authority of the country, and to the authority of the president... So this is a very bad symptom" - Russian propagandists allow themselves to be critical towards Putin

"The countdown has begun": Danilov emphasizes benefits for Ukraine from Wagner's mutiny
The NSDC Secretary is convinced that due to Saturday's events with Wagner, the destruction of Russia is inevitable, and Prigozhin's actions are the first stage of dismantling Putin's system, where the Wagner leader is only part of the group and the plan for the destabilization process.

Live:Ukraine's assessment of the Wagner coup attempt:
The situation with Prigozhin's rebellion gave us an insight into the role models of how different groups in Russia respond to a potential rebellion:

◾ the police are neutral and non-interfering;
◾ the liberal opposition in the Russian Federation itself, as always, is incapable of anything and will even solidarize tactically with the state;
◾ political emigration (Khodorkovsky, etc.) can support anyone to change the status quo;
◾ Kadyrov's "Chechen Guard" is not a key pillar of the regime. In fact, they simply sabotaged the departure to Rostov, were delayed for a long time on the way and arrived when the rebellion was over;
◾the majority of Russian military personnel capitulate when threatened with a clash with an internal rebellion.

The Russian military on the ground is much less afraid of the wrath of an abstract and distant Putin at a particular time than of a concrete and risky conflict with the Wagnerites. Therefore, many people were disarmed without any resistance.

The key pillars of the regime in Russia are the few SSO units that are not at the front, FSB officers, FSO officers, and some Rosgvardia units.

Neither the police nor the majority of the military in Russia have a strong loyalty to the government. They have just enough to serve, but none of them will perform a feat to prevent the Troubles.

@liveukraine_media

❗️❗️Threat of a terrorist attack at Zaporizhzhia NPP: what are the possible consequences in case of a radiation leak?

The Russian Ministry of Defense published footage of Defense Minister Shoigu allegedly working at the forward command post of the Western Military Group, the first public appearance of Shoigu since the coup attempt in Russia.

BBC just now:

Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has just posted an 11-minute audio message where he says no-one agreed to sign a contract with the defence ministry and that his mercenary firm was bound to cease existence on 1 July.

There's that camp that's being built for Wagner in Belorus, 8,000 spaces.

Anyone else see Wagner being disbanded and a new company being formed named oh, Vagner?

Do they think or is it more about optics.

North Korea have a national day when they shout about death to Americans. Why? Because it makes North Korea and it's leader look more powerful to its citizens because the idea is that the US sees North Korea as more powerful and on a par with its own military status. It's about the idea of inflation.

Likewise the idea that a single pissed off guy with a few tanks can roll half way from Ukraine to Moscow is one that makes the Russian state look weak. Instead the idea that the US is involved makes their traitorous internal enemy look more powerful than he really is because he has the state backing of the might of the US army. Otherwise there would have been no chance he could have possibly successfully taken two state capitals alone.... Right?

The fact that the US 'knew' about problems is a convenient story. But tbh, you don't have to be a spy or a rocket scientist to work out there's been a power battle going on. It's been all over Russian social media! Wagner suddenly having to resign contracts isn't a sign of healthy internal relations is it? We knew this much.

The details on the US with African sanctions dovetailing with the plan to absorb Wagner (and it's assets which would include it's African assets) is interesting. But it's more like a plot from a mafia film. Of course the US would plan the timing of when it did this. It clearly knew what the assets were Wagner's so they've been looking for a moment to do this. Given everyone knew about the Wagner signing up to the Russian government contracts deadline being 1st July, a US deadline of 26th June isn't exactly a surprise now is it? It would put maximum pressure on Prigozhin. Which of course would be what the US would want. Except they didn't need to know exactly what Prigozhin would do. There's a fair chance from surveillance they would have been able to tell he had been stockpiling weapons. So they begs the question of 'why?'

The US didn't need to know much nor do anything to provoke a reaction... But Putin needs to make this challenge look stronger than it was in practice to try and repair the damage to his image and how weak it's made him appear.

I simply don't buy that the CIA were involved. Why? Because they didn't need to be.

More information about the camp in Belarus

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1673324374294687746?t=p1GVdeyVc0hAd5Ruf__4ow&s=19

Hmm. Journalists at @verstka_media say they’ve confirmed an 8,000-man-capacity base camp is being constructed for Prigozhin’s warriors in Belarus, in the town of Osipovichi, rather far from the front lines in Ukraine. More camps to come. verstka.media/v-belarusi-str…

I simply don't buy that the CIA were involved. Why? Because they didn't need to be.

I agree, and as you said, the conflict between Wagner and the MoD had been all over social media for weeks, at least. I do think it's likely that since the CIA briefed Biden that they had intelligence of some sort that confirmed it would happen.

Near the end of Prigozhin’s statement (which is rather ‘a big boy was going to take our toys away so we captured Rostov and headed for the Kremlin’):

We gave a master class on how February 24, 2022 should have looked like.

well he's not wrong is he?

But they had a problem. The Ukrainians were in the way.

I think the big long-term contribution Prigozhin has made is telling the Russian people that there was no threat from Ukraine or Nato or Nazis, which he never found in Ukraine. He has credibility, thanks to his long relationship with Putin and Wagner's much greater performance on the battlefield than the Russian regulars.

That really increases the risk of unrest if Putin has to do another mobilization.

I don't think another mobilization is viable. It's now coming to the nuclear crunch. But that is Putin running out of internal power rather than because of explicit pressure from the West. Being willing to supply weapons is fair game in eyes of the ultra capitalism of Mafia State Russia.

They're building camps for them...another word for 'prison' perhaps.

One can hope …. Gulag style

He’s just as deluded as Putin about the Ukrainian resolve … no one would have welcomed them with open arms in Ukraine, not like people in Rostov did

The Kyiv Independent
AT KyivIndependent

Prigozhin claims that only 1-2% of Wagner mercenaries agreed to join regular army. The Wagner Group's founder Yevgeny Prigozhin argued on June 26 that the integration of the mercenary group into the regular army would have made it ineffective as a combat force.

Oh here we go
Putin to address nation

I really bloody wish he wouldn’t bother.

Oh god, Lukashenko too..
I'm dreading it

In fairness Lukashenko’s looks to be some sort of interview with Oprah 🤔

Putin in 6 minutes.

Plus about an hour, the man is never on time!

Ugh I feel sick.

Oh god..