Velina Tchakarova:
"My short analysis of the recent events concerning Russia's political dynamics, particularly focusing on the intricate relationships between President Putin, the Ministry of Defence (MoD), and Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the private military company Wagner PMC.
As I asserted right from the beginning of the events, the actions of Prigozhin do not appear to constitute an outright coup against Putin. Rather, his challenge seems to be an effort to resist a perceived threat from the MoD, set to act against the Wagner PMC by the 1st of July. Prigozhin's offensive appears to have been predicated on the assumption that Putin would support him, certainly a miscalculation of the complex power interplays within the Kremlin.
While Prigozhin's criticisms of the MoD indeed have dovetailed with Putin's interests, helping to offset a powerful competitor in the ongoing power contest between St Petersburg and Moscow, taking such a stance publicly against the MoD, and by extension against key Russian defence figures, has seemingly pushed him into a precarious position.
The information revealed by the Pentagon Leaks, suggesting that MoD's General Gerasimov and Minister Shoigu plotted to end the war against Ukraine during Putin's chemotherapy treatment, only further compounds this complex web of loyalties and power struggles.
Despite these events, Prigozhin's saving grace may indeed be Putin's calculus. Prigozhin has proven a useful domestic instrument, allowing Putin to deflect blame for military failures onto the MoD. Furthermore, the Wagner network of approximately 20,000-25,000 troops operating in Africa's challenging terrains gives Russia a strategic advantage in geopolitical and geoeconomic pursuits on the resource-rich continent.
In the absence of a suitable alternative, Prigozhin's position seems secure, provided his usefulness to Putin remains intact. This staged rebellion has also served Putin's interests by flushing out potential traitors within his inner circles and examining the reaction of the Moscow faction.
The unification of the two main competing factions in opposition to a common adversary, once Prigozhin advanced dangerously close to Moscow, is particularly noteworthy. Future significant resignations within the General Staff and the MoD, albeit unlikely, would mark a considerable victory for Putin. If Prigozhin survives this upheaval, it will be chiefly due to his value in relation to Russia's growing interests in Africa.
In conclusion, regardless of the public perception of these events, it seems that Putin stands to gain, underpinning his capacity to manipulate complex power dynamics in his favour. The evolving situation warrants continuous monitoring for a deeper understanding of the ongoing power struggles within the Russian political sphere."