Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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It's notable that no one knows what the situation is with Shoigu and Gerasimov atm.

I see Sky News are quoting General Lord Richard Dannatt as saying that the Uk and UA governments are concerned that Prigozhin may lead another assault on Kyiv from Belarus.

Yes. Something of a win for Putin if he does that and the start of a way back to be redeemed - and to make himself more popular in Russia again, in case of anther power grab.

That is concerning on so many levels if true.

If that's the case maybe this whole thing has been set up after all

I do think it’s important to remember though that Kyiv is much better prepared thank it was in Spring 2022 , and it did pretty bloody well then. An assault from Belarus was always a concern and I’m sure has been war gamed by Kyiv and her allies.

Prigozhin is but one very nasty little man, a worry absolutely but one man does not an (effective) army make.

No. Not likely.

Too big a deal - and Putin wouldn't have voluntarily weakened himself.

The West has been Warned In No Uncertain Terms that they need to build up their militaries again. This doesn't necessarily mean war as such, it means simply that war is less likely to happen because Russia is opportunistic and will prey on anyone it considers weak.

Si vis pacem, para bellum

The full ISW highlights, further to @notimagain 's highlights.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-24-2023

Key Takeaways

• The Kremlin announced late on June 24 that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal under which Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin will travel to Belarus without facing criminal charges in Russia; some portion of Wagner Group fighters will sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD); and no Wagner personnel will be charged for their involvement in an armed rebellion.
• The Wagner Group encircled the Russian Southern Military District (SMD)’s headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and drove to within 330km of Moscow City prior to the announcement of the deal. Wagner forces will reportedly begin withdrawing to their bases soon, and footage reportedly depicts Prigozhin departing Rostov-on-Don.
• The Kremlin struggled to cohere an effective rapid response to Wagner’s advances, highlighting internal security weaknesses likely due to surprise and the impact of heavy losses in Ukraine.
• Putin unsurprisingly elected to back the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and its ongoing efforts to centralize control of Russian irregular forces (including Wagner) over Prigozhin.
• The Lukashenko-brokered agreement will very likely eliminate Wagner Group as a Prigozhin-led independent actor in its current form, although elements of the organization may endure under existing and new capacities.
• Prigozhin likely gambled that his only avenue to retain Wagner Group as an independent force was to march against the Russian MoD, likely intending to secure defections in the Russian military but overestimating his own prospects.
• The optics of Belarusian President Lukashenko playing a direct role in halting a military advance on Moscow are humiliating to Putin and may have secured Lukashenko other benefits.
• The Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium. The Lukashenko-negotiated deal is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and Russian MoD.
• Russian forces launched their largest series of missile strikes against Ukraine in recent months on June 24, despite the armed rebellion within Russia.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front and reportedly made advances on June 24, and regular fighting continued on other sectors of the line.

It's possible it was all a piece of theatre but with someone other than Putin pulling the strings

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine's ground forces, has told the Guardian in an interview that Ukraine's main force had not engaged in fighting yet.
Ukrainian troops are probing for weak points in the Russians' defenses, he said. https://kyivindependent.com/general-ukraines-main-force/

⚡️Ukrainian forces liberate territory near Krasnohorivka.

⚡️Official: Ukrainian troops advance in several directions around Bakhmut.
Maliar said that the advances had taken place near the villages of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Yahidne, Klishchiivka, and Kurdyumivka. https://kyivindependent.com/official-ukrainian-troops-advance-in-several-directions-around-bakhmut/

Ukrainian forces have refined tactics in the first two weeks of their counteroffensive in preparation for deeper assaults into Russian-held positions, the U.K. Defense Ministry said on June 25.
In its intelligence bulletin, the Defense Ministry said that Ukraine is making "gradual but steady tactical progress in key areas." https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-ukraine-refining-tactics-in-first-weeks-of-counteroffensive-for-deeper-assaults/

Germany will supply Ukraine with 45 more Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns by the end of the year, with 15 of them expected to arrive in the coming weeks, German Brigadier General Christian Freuding said in an interview published on June 25. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-to-provide-45-gepard-guns/

Russia comes to the brink of civil war: How we got here and what it means kyivindependent.com/russia-on-the-brink-of-civil-war-how-we-got-here-and-what-comes-next/

⚡️Latvia has bolstered its border security and turned away Russians leaving the country amid the Wagner Group’s armed rebellion.

⚡️WSJ: State Department to postpone sanctions (https://kyivindependent.com/wsj/) against Wagner activity in Africa. According to an unnamed official who spoke with the WSJ, the State Department had previously intended to announce new sanctions against the mercenary group for its gold mining activities in Africa. [Why??]

U.S. intelligence agencies have known that the Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning an uprising against the Russian military establishment since mid-June, the Washington Post reported on June 24. https://kyivindependent.com/washington-post-6/ [how come if the US knew, the FSB didn't? Or did they?]

Russian security forces have started to implement document checks on local Ukrainian teenagers in occupied Mariupol, according to a June 24 report from Ukraine's Center for National Resistance. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-occupiers/

Relevant to yesterday:

⚡️Russian media: Wagner mercenaries leave Rostov. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-wagner-mercenaries-leave-rostov-on-don/

⚡️Putin's spokesman: Criminal case against Prigozhin will be closed https://kyivindependent.com/latest-prigozhin-wagner-forces-launch-armed-rebellion-in-russia/

⚡️Russian President Vladimir Putin held phone calls with Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev regarding the “situation in Russia,” according to the states’ press services. [how humiliating. "Hi Kazakhstan, we've got a problem, I need your help".]

⚡️Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a phone call to discuss the latest developments in Russia.

The Wagner mercenaries who did not participate in the rebellion will sign contracts with the Defense Ministry and will not be prosecuted, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. https://kyivindependent.com/latest-prigozhin-wagner-forces-launch-armed-rebellion-in-russia/

⚡️Media: Russian law enforcement finds fake passports cash suitcases at Prigozhin's office. https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-law-enforcement-finds-gold-bars/

⚡️Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin declared a state of emergency in Russia’s capital yesterday.

⚡️Internet access was limited by Russia in the ares Wagner took over yesterday.

⚡️Voronezh Oblast Governor Aleksandr Gusev issued a statement in support of Russian President Vladimir Putin, saying there can be “no justification for the mutineers.” [The 'heads' of Luhansk and Donetsk also supported Putin]

⚡️Independent Russian media outlet Agentstvo said Putin’s presidential plane took off from an airport in Moscow at around 2 p.m. Moscow time, headed northwest.

⚡️Wagner vehicles reachhed 200km south of Moscow

At least six planes belonging to top Russian officials and businessmen have left Moscow amid the rebellion launched by Wagner mercenaries, Russia's Vazhnye Isorii investigative journalism project reported https://kyivindependent.com/media-jets-belonging-to-russian-elite-leave-moscow/

More personnel losses, lower hardware but FORTY ONE cruise missiles downed.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

❗️The Armed Forces of Ukraine near Krasnohorivka in Donetsk region liberated the positions that had been occupied since 2014, said the spokesperson of the United Press Center of the Defense Forces of the Tavria direction, Shershen. According to him, the positions were released about a week ago, but it was not reported for tactical reasons

Ukrainian troops launched an offensive in several directions at the same time. There is progress in the directions of Orikhiv-Vasylivka, Bakhmut, Bohdanivka, Yahidne, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, — Ministry of Defense

US Secretary of State Blinken discussed the armed insurgency in Russia with G7 allies and the EU's top diplomats.

The American administration was afraid that by introducing new sanctions against Wagner, it could "take the side" of the Russian leadership. [eh?]

The Oryx OSINT project began calculating equipment losses in the armed conflict between the Russian Armed Forces and the "Wagner" PMC. The losses of the Russian army are still much higher
Prigozhin's mercenaries shot down an Il-22 plane, two REZO helicopters, one Mi-35, a Tiger combat vehicle, and a military KamAZ. Aviation was destroyed, and cars were captured. According to Oryx, the “Wagner” lost only one UAZ

Eight servicemen of the Il-22 flight control center were killed today as a result of the ground attack of the "Wagner" PMC, Russian propaganda reports.
In total, 13 Russian pilots were destroyed during the PMC "campaign". [takes millions to train a fighting aircraft pilot, and time. This is good for Ukraine. Wonder how many pilots Ru has now]

US intelligence officials believe that Yevgeny Prigozhin had long planned to challenge the Russian military leadership, but his ultimate goal is unclear.
The United States also believes that Prigozhin's statements about the alleged shortage of ammunition were a deliberate deception to provide a basis for a potential challenge to the Russian leadership.

The President of Kazakhstan in a telephone conversation with Putin said that what is happening in the Russian Federation is the internal affairs of the country

Andrzej Duda ordered the Polish army to be on high alert.

🇮🇹 The myth of the unity of Putin's Russia is over, — Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said.

Meanwhile, in the Lipetsk region, roads are dug up on the way to Moscow to prevent the "Wagnerians" from passing. [Now they'll have to build them again!]

Whom do you think it might have been?

Tbh I've wondered for a while now if Putin is kinda sidelined. I don't know enough to make any educated guesses but he's supposed to only get filtered information since he doesn't use the internet, he relies on people who are not going to challenge him and he just generally seems to have lost the plot.

I hope this is the beginning of the end of this terrible war. I hope Putin is handed over to the International Criminal Court as well. I expect if someone offered enough money that could easily be arranged in the event of him being deposed.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

❗️Russian pro-government telegram channels report intensified fighting in the area of Antonivskyi Bridge.
Allegedly, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have crossed the Dnipro River and have already deployed up to 5 tanks

While Prigozhin was marching through Russia, soldiers of the 1st mechanized battalion🇺🇦 clashed with the 3rd battalion of the 🇷🇺57th Guards motorized rifle brigade, clearing the western bank of the Siverskiy Donets-Donbass canal.
The enemy battalion lost 50 wounded and over 30 killed and practically stopped existing.

During a conversation with U.S. General Mark Milley, Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny spoke about the needs of the Armed Forces "for certain types of weapons and demining equipment."

❗️❗️In the temporarily occupied Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia region, two boys born in 2006 eliminated a collaborator cop and some other Russian. After that, the Russians killed the teenage heroes. [very sad final video clip from one of them]

⚡️⚡️Putin signed a law allowing convicts to be drafted for contract service, except for those who have committed serious crimes.

Prigozhin has more fighters than the number of soldiers in the armed forces of some countries. And it could be twice as many if he calls in the pardoned Wagnerians.

"Dagestan - without Russia" graffiti started appearing in Dagestan (Russian region in North Caucasu

❗️❗️The President of Georgia urged the prime minister to convene a meeting of the Security Council in connection with the situation in Russia to discuss the occupied territories of Abkhazia and so-called South Ossetia.

🇩🇪 The German government suggests that Prigozhin stopped his march on Moscow because he hoped for more support for his rebellion in Russia.

Fighters of the "Wagner" PMC massively released prisoners from Rostov prisons to join their ranks.
Armed men in camouflage disarmed the guards in Rostov penal colonies. They urged convicts to join them and march together to Moscow

The 217th Guards Parachute Regiment sided with Prigozhin - Russian media.

In St. Petersburg, a truck full of cash worth 4 billion rubles was found near Prigozhin's office.
This was confirmed by the mercenary leader himself, who said that it was a payout to the families of the victims

The Russian Volunteer Corps expressed its readiness to help the rebels on the territory of the Russian Federation and called on its supporters to become more active.

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Nasser Kanaani said that the events currently taking place in Russia are an internal affair of that country

❗️❗️Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tikhonovskaya called for the expulsion of Russian troops from the country by the Belarusian army.

Metropolitan Kirill of Stavropol addressed Prigozhin and said that many sins are forgiven a person, but the sin of "coup" is sometimes not forgiven

Rostov People approached the mercenaries to thank them and shake hands.

The streets of Rostov yesterday

Dewagnerization in Moscow is in full swing.

Yesterday's blocked roads around Moscow

"Chechen leader slams 'arrogance' of Prigozhin who 'acted out of anger over failed business deals'"

just thinking - for 24 hour I had no sleep overnight trip via Dubai. I was a complete zombie when I got home.
I suppose the anger felt is worsened by lack of sleep and emotions running high? just saying?

mm, agreed that lack of sleep really has an influence on both emotions and control of emotions.

But the Chechen leader Kadyrov is truly a clown. His troops are often used to hold already-conquered towns and to literally shoot Russian deserters in the back as they flee.

Kadyrov and Prigozhin used to be sort of allies, then they fell out. I think that anything Kadyrov says can be taken with the seriousness of Howling Laud Hope of the Uk's Monster Raving Loony Party.

.. in fact, Howling Lord Hope is probably a much much nicer and more stable individual.

Rostov People approached the mercenaries to thank them and shake hands.

Will we soon be talking about "the disputed Yaroslavl region, which is claimed by Russia"?

Still, Putin is in favour of a multipolar world. So it's nice for him that he has so many new poles as from this weekend.

@notimagain Geraschenko claims that some Wagner pilots are quitting in disgust because Wagner shot down 7 Russian aircraft yesterday; cameraderie of pilots.

D'you think there could be some truth in this?

Putin’s current statement is very “nothing to see here folks, as you were” doesn’t it. Screenshot of sky’s reporting on it below.

I saw that comment a few minutes ago...I'm not sure how easy it would be to "quit" Wagner but I'm sure there will be a lot of ill feeling and reluctance to go flying..

With regard to the tweet that came from I thought his point number 5 was interesting..

"The Russian army, it seems, has de facto ceased to exist as a united structure. Soldiers and officers sitting in trenches in the massacre unleashed by Putin, probably finally realized yesterday the utter pointlessness of the war against Ukraine, against the background of the fact that a group of criminals in the rear can pass 600km in a day, sweeping away everything in their path and then be amnestied after killing pilots and civilians."

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672918703946571776

How much do you think they know about it? I imagine communications are often very, very shut down in the trenches. Im sure they'll have heard rumours, but I wonder how far they actually know what's going on.

Fair point but even rumours can be damaging and corrosive...

Knowing how rumours go in the forces I reckon this time next week the tale will be that Wagner got to the Moscow ring road and only stopped when each man got 1,000,000 USD and a life time supply of free cabbages....

lol.

I spent yesterday doing parent things while occasionally seeing headline summaries. What a strange series of events.