Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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In the temporarily occupied Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia region, two boys born in 2006 eliminated a collaborator cop and some other Russian. After that, the Russians killed the teenage heroes.

How can Russia win when 16-17 year old Ukrainian's also feel compelled to fight for freedom. Brave teenagers.

Ok, you already know this but I didnt know he was invloved with interference in US election that got Trump in. Wiki quote:

Prigozhin now controls a network of influential companies, including the Russian state-backed mercenary company Wagner Group and three companies accused of interference in the 2016 and 2018 US elections.[8] According to a 2022 investigation by Bellingcat, The Insider, and Der Spiegel, Prigozhin's activities "are tightly integrated with Russia's Defence Ministry and its intelligence arm, the GRU".[9]

That is why Trump's darling was Putin... as they once sat in a private room in Helsinki with just a translator. The rest is history.... dirty...cheats.... history.

Power mad men...all they want is power and more power. They couldn't care a f*k about people. They are dangerous and should be stopped. We don't want history repeating itself.

Similar questions were raised after the disclosure of an unplanned conversation with Putin during a G-20 dinner in Osaka, Japan, in June 2019 during which Trump was not accompanied by an interpreter.

Trump had told reporters beforehand that his private discussions with Putin were "none of your business."

Yeah, Putin's been nudging Trump a long long time and Trump kowtows to him.

It's happened in the UK too.

https://www.csis.org/blogs/brexit-bits-bobs-and-blogs/did-russia-influence-brexit

Crucially, the UK Government is accused of making a deliberate effort not to find out how Russian influence may have affected the June 2016 vote. This is all the more incredulous because the government admits there was Russian interference in the 2014 Scottish referendum, declaring it the first time that Russia directly interfered in a Western election. The government also admits that Russia interfered in the December 2019 general election.

Bojo blocked an enquiry into Russian influence on Brexit.

I know it has been said that Wagner fighters that didn't take part in the mutiny are being absorbed into the regular military but I haven't seen anything about the Wagner that did take part other than they have been given immunity.

Has anyone heard what is happening? Are they going to Belarus with Prigo? Given that they are likely hard core Wagner rather than convict cannon fodder it's the difference between Wagner being broken up or simply given a new base of operations.

Interesting feedback from a Wagnar mercenary on Tim's Substack.

open.substack.com/pub/counteroffensive/p/the-cynical-calculations-of-a-wagner?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=615mx

Just because the principals agreed a deal does not mean that the rank & file will fall in. I suspect most of them will go to Africa and leave a failing theatre of war where there's little chance of success.

TheABC, thanks for the link. Iteresting perspective.

The mercenary Munier, a French-Ukrainian soldier, does not seem to have strong political convictions or loyalty. If you think about it, that is not surprising. The very definition of 'mercenary' is hired gun, someone who goes where the money is (or fight is, in Munier's case).

Makes it easy for Wagner's troops to switch sides or walk away.

From the Guardian;

"According to Kulemzin, a male victim born in 2005 and a woman born in 1856 died due to enemy fire."

She had a good innings...

If you have 15 minutes, this is fascinating.

It is plenty of footage of Wagner when getting ready to leave Rostov. Prigozhin appears briefly. The video title says Coup Crushed, but the atmosphere that comes through is anything but.

People interviewed are pro-Wagner and pro-Putin. The brief interviews with locals and Wagnerites have some subtitles. It is almost a carnival.

Downside: Patrick Lancaster is a Putinist nut job. If I could mute his enthusiasm…

MMBaranova, that is indeed interesting how much support there is for Wagner in Rostov. And there seems to be strong support for the war against Ukraine. Not that anyone will come on film to denounce it but it seems to be understood in a casual way.

I agree the guy is quite irritating though. Is it Wag-ner or Vag-ner?

twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1673039776104980482?t=N3Xyi5co6FMrq10Bk2n3fA&s=19

Igor Girkin (Strelkov) calls on Putin to step down

How significant is this? Sounds big to me.

I found that video very interesting. Apart from the English speaking guy, no-one answered the questions about what was going on. Nothing descriptive, only their feelings - that they were happy. Only vague answers about how great Russia is really.

A lifetime of compelled speech.

That was interesting, thanks for posting the link. My favorite part was the woman at 7:48 saying "but we believe in our souls..in what? In reason. Russia has always been reasonable. They would anyway find a peaceful..."

Unless, or course, they're invading a sovereign neighbor, attacking civilians, abducting children and committing various other war crimes.

Dara Massicot AT massdars
Although it appears quiet in Russia today, things are not back to 'normal.' The coming days or weeks will tell more. Until then, its wise to consider that “nothing is true and everything is possible” – even the things we see. A few reflections for today:

48 hours in, Shoigu & Gerasimov are publicly radio silent, even to Russian milbloggers. Unusual, given the threat against them specifically. Are they secure in their jobs? all that matters is what Putin decides for them. /2

They could emerge anytime (once the danger has passed). I think Gerasimov's position is weaker than Shoigu's. Regardless of when they emerge and how, their silence will be remembered and they could look even weaker. /3

Alekseev and Surovikin were the public faces of the appeal to Prigozhin. Their videos looked coerced. While Alekseev emerged the next day, their ultimate status remains unclear. /4

Hard to say what will happen to other senior officers . Milbloggers reporting that the chain of command continued out of Rostov for Ukraine. /5

No signs of major disruptions/desertions/mutinies in Ukraine so far. Soldiers in Ukraine with cell phones and coverage could follow along. Watching for future ripples /6

The Kremlin should be worried that Wagner columns were waved through – on the ground at least- by multiple authorities and openly received by the people in Rostov. That's passive popular support though, and we never saw what would happen if there was armed confrontation. /6

Watching the public reaction to Wagner's presence, and the heckling of the police that followed (in Rostov), I think there is something that bubbled up that's worth following. Not antiwar per se; but it did seem like an expression against the authorities. /7

I don’t take Peskov’s statement of the “negotiated terms” for Prigozhin at face value. Anything is possible. Armed insurrection is not a "water under the bridge" situation. Not how the authorities were acting, anyway. There isn't much clarity yet. /8

In days/weeks ahead, worth paying attention to public clarifications of the National Guard, intel, military command chains. Arrests are also in realm of possibility, or, some people could simply not be seen again. I don't think this is over. Much has changed. /x

Dmitri Alperovitch at DAlperovitch
My thoughts on the implications of Prigozhin's mutiny this weekend:

First, what have we learned from this?

1. That a hostile armed column of about 5,000 troops can just drive across Russia for hours to within 200km of Moscow and no one in the MoD, Rosgvardia, MVD or FSB seems capable or willing to stop them.

(Ukraine take note)

1. That another armed column of a few thousand troops (some of them former convicts!) can just drive into a major Russian city of a million people and take it over without firing a shot, including a major military command center and an airbase

1. That the Russian Air Force is incapable of achieving air superiority even over a small part of a highway in Russia against a small group of mercenaries armed with Pantsir air defenses and no air force of their own

1. That Lukashenko is much braver than Putin and is more capable of acting decisively to preserve his hold on power, something that Putin seems to have little ability to do

1. That during an armed mutiny in Russia, its Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Gerasimov can't be expected to show up anywhere and lead (they are still MIA today). Its top generals—Dep Defense Minister Evkurov and Dep GRU Aleskeev would cower before the mutineer

1. That loyalty to Putin does not run deep. In the crucial 13 hours before Putin's speech, few came out in support of him. No governors, no Duma members, not even his national security council. Only 2 generals Surovikin and Alekseev recorded 'hostage videos' urging Wagner to stop

And what do we know about the situation now?

1. This episode is far from over. Wagner and Prigozhin did not surrender. They withdrew in an orderly fashion, with all of their equipment and forces in tact (with the support of cheering and hugging crowds)

1. For about 24 hours, Wagner became a banned organization in Russia. Their online presence was blacklisted, offices raided, recruitment posters taken down, online merchandise sales blocked... And now, everything seems to be forgiven and many of the bans completely reversed

1. I do not, for one second, believe anything that comes out of Dmitry Peskov's mouth (a notorious liar and one who is literally never in the loop on anything) and so far he is the only source of the comments about Moscow's deal with Prigozhin

1. Putin is not acting like a person who is capable of swiftly reasserting his power and cracking down on anyone who had sided against him or simply had chosen to step aside and pretend like nothing was happening

1. Prigozhin's name recognition is now one of the highest in Russia. He had challenged the Kremlin and (so far) has gotten away with it. If he survives, he may have created a significant political base for himself in Russian politics - one that did not exist prior to this weekend

What does all this mean for the future?

I think Putin has demonstrated exceptional weakness and limited control over the levers of power in Russia. He has also so far not shown that he is capable of reasserting that control. He could still do so but the clock is ticking and chaos might erupt if he doesn't

In a brutal authoritarian system, displays of such weakness are dangerous. It's not that someone might decide to make a move on Putin tomorrow but that his propensity to avoid making tough decisions is likely to cause various actors within the Russian system to start ignoring him

Putin is in real danger of becoming irrelevant as various clans across the system (security services, governors, etc) might follow in Prigozhin's footsteps and start to take actions and pursue their interests without coordination or approval from the Kremlin

After all, if Prigozhin can get away with mutiny to keep operating his Wagner PMC company, why shouldn't they do what they like as well?

I got the impression that the people in that video weren’t clear about who Wagner were, the relationship between Wagner and the regular army or anything very much really, apart from the fact that the soldiers and tanks were on the side of Russia. Or that they were being very careful in what they said.

I also wonder what the impact has been on the external audience: African leaders (and citizens); influencers into whose ears Vlad has been whispering sweet nothings, with greater or lesser results, eg the Pope and Elon Musk.

Prigozhin has drawn back the Wizard of Oz's and shown the little man working the levers – and shown him to be weak.

In fact, I think Vlad may be about to receive a Donald J Twerp "I don't know the guy. Maybe I met him once. I don't know, maybe I haven't."

Wizard of Oz's curtain

It's probably not amazingly significant.

Girkin is an intelligent man who is treated like a yapping pekinese, fortunately. He's become more and more outspoken, but less and less significant. His star is falling, Prigozhin's has risen far beyond his.

It wouldn't be a surprise if he fell out of a window but it wouldn't be a suprise by now if he was ignored, too.

Having said that, he was/is FSB and if someone is openly calling for Putin's dismissal, it's a mark of how much has changed and how much less Putin is feared. He's still dangerous but his grip seems to be slipping.

@PerkingFaintly Great simile - exactly that, if the Wizard was a psychopathic weasel.

Thanks @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar honestly you are a treasure of information and perspective. 🙂