Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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This is a guess but probably not as the starvation came from Stalin's policies of collectivization. I'm thinking more the extreme control of the population where anyone who was deemed an enemy of the state was sent to a prison labour camp. 18 million people were incarcerated during his reign. Solzhenitsyn wrote about them and said that the KGB was given quotas of people to round up; at times even passing the police station could get arrested.

Not suggesting it will go that far mind you, but the grip during this war has tightened a great deal and it could go further.

Rostov's population preferring Wagner seems to indicate that Putin's pro-government propaganda isn't working the way he wants, though they don't exactly seem anti-war.

I suppose then that much would depend if the troops go with Prig, to bolster the Belarussian troops or is that not feasible? Sorry, not been around since about thread 38 so apologies if ive missed important info! Just trying to work out the chess moves from today

Presumably Prigozhin could only lead from Belarus with Russia's support. If he were really in exile and Shoigu still in power, I cannot see him getting the ammo and weapons to wage a war in Ukraine. Would Putin trust him with again?

Unless this entire coup was a set up orchestrated with Putin. But that seems like quite a stretch considering how real the panic seemed to be in Moscow 24 hours ago.

Actually now you mention it Im not sure if Wagner's troops are going with Prigozhin. If they are then Lukashenko's control will weaken. If not, well, Prigozhin's a cunning beast and Big Trouble but without an armed force he won't be quite as threatening at first.

The Belorussan army does not want to go into Ukraine apparently and from what I've read one of Lukoshenko's problems is that it's not fully under his control.

And if they're not going with him will they fight under someone else where they are? (Or were before today!) If they won't then that's quite a chunk of personnel gone from that area. So many questions tonight

The ones that didn't take part in the insurrection today will sign on with the Russian MoD .. though apparently a lot are refusing, as it's worse pay and worse conditions on top of a pile of bad feeling. The ones that did will be pardoned. Where they go now, Im not sure - perhaps back to Africa, if not with Prigozhin.

They'd be mad to join the Russian Army. It's a shitshow compared to Wagner, and they'd be hated and harrassed by everyone, and possibly worse.

I thought Putin was moving nukes to Belarus recently - did that happen?

I read people in wagoner didn't want to fight either though. Who wants to fight for either?
You are not allowed to leave either one.
It's hideous.

I was AWOL for a few hours and missed a shill and the denouement!

So, charges against Prighozin dropped and asylum in Belarus. After messing up Putin's image so badly? and that's the end? Too weird, somethings up. Dmitri Alperovitch points out that we have Peskov's word on this but no confirmation from Prighozin himself that he's agreed to any deal/exile. What happens between Wagner and the Russian MOD now? Will Prig be sent to Africa and Wagner used to shore things up there?

A collection of random tweets which hopefully may give a coherent explanation of events.

Pjotr Sauer
Dyumin reportedly led the negotiations with Prigozhin today

Pjotr Sauer
Prigozhin is believed to be close to powerful Tula governor Alexei Dyumin and head of Rosgvardia Viktor Zolotov. Both have so far not spoken out publicly about his revolt

Mike Eckel
Dyumin is a former Putin bodyguard IIRC. Like Zolotov.

Dogun201983
rumours Dyumin backing Prigozhin

Ukraine Front Lines
Meantime, Dyomin, the governor of the Tula region and the oligarchs of St. Petersburg say YES to #Prigozhin.

Henry Foy
If Prigozhin’s 200km brag is true, then they were in Tula when they stopped, too.

Nadezhda
Dyumin’s purported role in Prigozhin negotiations has been vigorously denied ffiw

Ukraine Front Lines
No one believes that Prigozhin is going to live in exile in Belarus. His fighters, who do not particularly like the Fuhrer or the MOD, are not going for that either. Many have already been contacted by the partisan groups that entered Belgorod to join them

Ukraine Front Lines
So tomorrow, the US is supposed to impose new sanctions against Wagner over gold in Africa but decided to postpone it in light of the Prigozhin coup attempt. Translation: Prigozhin is working with the CIA to destabilize ruzzia and now Belarus so sanctions can wait.

The Wall Street Journal is saying that the excuse for not imposing sanctions now against Wagner is that the US does not want to appear to be helping the Fuhrer punish Prigozhin. But the Fuhrer gave him a pass so that's not a valid reason. There is more, promise.

Gary Kasparov (retweeting a Russian language tweet but his tweet is self explanatory without it)
On target as usual. Putin betrayed his officials & military to grovel before Prigozhin. Dictators think only of extending their power another day, then another. That single-minded survival instinct is powerful but also prevents them from being strategic

Gary Kasparov
Mafia is as mafia does. Whatever deal was reached today, blood has been spilled and Putin's illusion of invincibility is gone. He and his cronies tasted real fear. Moscow was threatened.

It's a mafia, not a state, and they will walk back or swallow anything that is profitable. Infighting rarely is. This also exposes the stupidity of saying Putin needs off-ramps or to save face in Ukraine. He's a dictator, and can make up anything he wants

Prigozhin and Putin don't care about bloodshed. Not about Russians, not about Ukrainians or anyone else. They care about money and the power to keep it. If they made a deal, it will last only as long as the money does.

It sounds like behind the scenes some of the key Oligarchs - and ones close to both Putin and Prigozhin quietly resolved matters. Why? Because in a conflict they would be forced to pick a side which might endanger their own lives. But in effect this is perhaps backing Prigozhin over Putin because Putin is now so weak. They are propping up Putin now to avoid violence (which fits with Prigozhin's statement).

Putin agrees because he literally has no other choice - his life is on the line and he figures he lives to fight another day. But the Mafia bosses have in effect given Prigozhin their blessings in some respects. He has got away with an insurrection and gain power from it at the direct expense of Putin. This ensures they all do not lose money in an armed conflict and this protects their lives (for now).

For Prigozhin to take full control he has to stabilise the country and win over the Oligarchs anyway. An armed conflict doesn't lend itself to this. He can't guarantee he'd be successful in an armed conflict - which risks his life. This option is safer (but still risky) and buys him more time to consolidate. Keep in mind an armed conflict would give the opportunity for other warlords to seize perhaps rise up and fracture the country in a challenge to Prigozhin.

There are some indications that Prigozhins hand was forced too. He was clearly planning on making this challenge and was well organised but there were also rumours that he went slightly earlier than he would like. The deadline for Wagner to sign over to the Russian army was 1st July. This was Shoigu's conflict with Prigozhin, in order to try and restrict his power and influence. So Prigozhin was running out of time. And now we see there was a great big financial deadline by 26th June over sanctions in Africa. Quite why the US hadn't already done these sanctions is a massive question. One where you also ask questions over the timing of the Ukrainian operational pause and wtf was going on in the intelligence community. But because Prigozhin's hand was forced slightly earlier than he'd like, he wasn't quite ready and hasn't consolidated enough yet to guarantee power and his strategy was extremely high risk, so a pause is in his interests.

It's in the interests of both Alexei Dyumin and Viktor Zolotov to go 'we see the writing on the wall here for Putin, we both have good relations with Prigozhin so let's do our best to get a smooth transition of power going on because that maintains our power and means we don't lose money'. Putin is left without alternative choices so has to agree. Likewise Lukashenko probably sees the writing on the wall and knows he has to get close to Prigozhin if he is the likely successor in order to save his own neck. All this also sidelines a potential power grab by King of the TikTokers because he doesn't get to go in with his army.

But none of this has resolved matters completely. You have to say that Putin is liable to see his opportunity to fight another day as his only way to survive yesterday. But it still gives him time to try and cling to power and perhaps bump off Prigozhin (unless there are issues with his health and the deal revolves around letting him die soon within office).

This would strike me as the only plausible explanation that really works as to what happened yesterday. The reality may vary in detail but actually I do think it has to look something like this or it just makes no sense. Why just give up? There has to be others brokering this for their own advantage too. And a conflict doesn't serve those who already have significant power - they have everything to lose. Power in Russia centres on money...

Illuia Mendel
Putin has suffered “a mortal blow,” - a retired US Army Brig. Gen. Peter Zwack.

“There are 2 existential fights going on in this Russia-Ukraine war,” he said.

“One is the viability of the survival, the existence, of a free-minded Ukrainian state. The other is inside the Kremlin and the viability of the Putin regime.”

What (Prigozhin) has done is divided the Russians, got them squabbling publicly… This I believe is a mortal blow to Putin and his regime.” - CNN

I have a feeling that Prigozhin is going to struggle in getting any meaningful life insurance in place after this.
An unexplained fall from a fifth floor balcony beckons.

ISW analysis published late last night US Eastern Time/early AM Europe:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-24-2023

Hmmm. Interesting. Looks like he was already about to be pushed out the window.

^^ C&P of three of their bullet points:

• The Lukashenko-brokered agreement will very likely eliminate Wagner Group as a Prigozhin-led independent actor in its current form, although elements of the organization may endure under existing and new capacities.
• Prigozhin likely gambled that his only avenue to retain Wagner Group as an independent force was to march against the Russian MoD, likely intending to secure defections in the Russian military but overestimating his own prospects.
• The optics of Belarusian President Lukashenko playing a direct role in halting a military advance on Moscow are humiliating to Putin and may have secured Lukashenko other benefits.

......So that's ISW best guess.

Sorry RTB we crossed..

Yep, it'll be interesting to see how long any of the major players in all this last.

Oh..
All is definitely not what it seems

Could I just ask a question? Do these events yesterday bode well for the Ukrainians? From what I understand Wagner fighters on the ground in Ukraine are now expected to join the Russian Army. If Wagner are out of Ukraine in effect will this weaken the Russians? I thought that Wagner were the ones keeping the Russian troops from surrendering/running away.

Apologies if this has been addressed.

Anything that’s bad for Russia at this point is good for Ukraine (very simply speaking). Wagner are brutal but so much of their success has stemmed from their ability to be bold and innovative and not to be too restricted by vertical command structures. If they join the Russian army proper then they lose that ability because one of Russia’s big issues has been the inability of troops on the ground to make decisions, it all goes through the Kremlin.

There’s also the question of whether many of them join the army, the pay is miles worse (they’re largely mercenaries after all).

I don't often contribute to these threads because frankly I don't feel very knowledgeable compared to most of you (love reading them and learn A LOT), but I'm listening to the BBC World Service this morning and as could be expected they're unpicking things in detail and they've just had Timothy Garton Ash (historian, Professor of European Studies at Oxford) on and he said some interesting things culminating in his view that Putin actually sees himself as the Tsar, and the mutineers as the Bolsheviks, and that Putin's fundamental reference point is the Russian Empire NOT the Soviet Union. Might be obvious to some of you but this is a lightbulb moment for me so I thought I'd share it. Interview starts at about 8.40, Weekend Programme.
World Service - Listen Live - BBC Sounds

Hmm you'd hope that is the case, but I'm not convinced it is that simple.

When the police were out in Rostov last night they weren't welcomed by the locals. Prigozhin has now got something of a following for being a hard man.

Ive seen a phrase on twitter which sums up the issue:
"There is only one thing that's worse than having a war you don't want and that's losing a war you don't want"

Wagner has given the only 'success' in the war since the initial invasion.

There is a public desire that doesn't necessarily support the war but paradoxical still wants to win it.

And therein lies danger for Ukraine at this point.

You have a bunch of men locked in a power struggle in a culture which values a strong man.

For me I think there is a danger of escalation on Russia's part again. But it probably can't be done with Russian men any further.

That leave two worrying options. Belarus and tactical nukes/manufactured nuclear incident.

Remember Putin wanted the war in many wars to demonstrate he was the strong leader and could bring the glory of the Soviet empire back. Internal weakness manifested as external force. This is a pattern that repeats.

So whilst logistically on the ground the loss of a large number of troops and disrupted supply chains and chaos in the command structure are all good news for Ukraine...

...there still is this very real risk that things may get worse before they get better.

Yes he see himself as the Tsar. I thought the references to 1917 which resulted in the death of the Tsar were really curious yesterday.

However I would argue he saw Stalin as a type of Tsar too and that the Russian control of satellite states within the Soviet Union meant he still saw the Soviet Empire as having status he aspired to.

I've been struggling to make sense of Prigozhin's but if he was facing his own death then a last gasp attempt to prevent it does make sense

It's not over until one of them is dead. The fact that Wagnar has been allowed to sidle off to Belarus displays Putin's weakness to the world; the one thing Russian society does not tolerate. Yesterday will be concentrating the minds of the power brokers about Putin's successor.

The USA decision over Wagnar's gold sanctions is interesting. I don't think the CIA is orchestrating the war (Ukraine's operational pause sounds like just that) but I do think they are looking for leverage - perhaps in Africa if not in Ukraine. They've got China to think about and it won't be the first time they've shook hands with mercenaries.