Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

was it our friend Liebig again?

Yes, it was. Check your DMs.

I don’t understand, why would Belarus invite Wagner into their country? Does it mean Wagner will invade from there?

But then again how will Russia hold what it has without them? Does that mean the Ukraine land they hold will now go back to Ukraine as the Russian Army surely can’t hold it? 25000 troops down? No real leadership

What was Pavitr, perspective, considering how many have been pulled

Is Kadyrov still stuck in a traffic jam 🤔

What’s the plural of ‘Liebig’ 🤔

"Proper noun

Liebig m or f (proper noun, surname, masculine genitive Liebigs or (with an article) Liebig, feminine genitive Liebig, plural Liebigs)

1. a surname
2. Justus von Liebig, German chemist

Derived terms

• Liebigit

"

I suppose in these sort of situations you need to go back to basics and look at what is verified and confirmed as fact ?

Prigozhin has a whole farm of trolls and lots of experience over the years with disinformation campaigns.

What do we know which is absolutely true about the past 24 hours ?

The only true truths will be in the intelligence services files, the rest of it can be classed as "official information for public media and consumption"

I've been mulling this over. If Prigozhin and Lukashenko are old friends, could they have hatched this as a way to separate Belarus from Russia? Maybe that's the price of Wagner withdrawing.

The thread attracted the attention of quite a few pro-Russian shills (there are markers for the way they write) over the many months now.

Recently we got a really sticky one, their first registered name was Liebig. They got banned, but keep coming back in different forms. Post the same article a few times, slip the same characteristic lies in, tend to write in a certain way.

Bit like that disgusting burr you get on your socks after walking through a field of cowpats. You don't want to touch it but you can't seem to get rid of it.

Love the analogy.

I do think it’s extra important to call out shills at times like these when there is lots of info flying around and non-regular posters who may not be as able to recognise Russian propaganda.

Ah, much appreciated for the update.
It's a pickle with some and the bots are very much a pickle

After watching spooks, and then theirs our own history eg cold war, east vs west etc, who knows

Where is Lukashenko now? Has he been ousted and replaced with Prigozhin?!

Any clue from Pavitr/LieBig's deleted posts whether he is a pro-Putin or pro-Wagner shill? I believe Wagner have their own shill factory in St Petersburg.

I did not see them before they got deleted.

Russian police has returned to Rostov after the Wagner Group’s departure tonight.

The people aren’t happy to see them. They are blocking your he streets and hurling insults at the policemen.

Visible cracks have appeared in Russian society

I suspect that Lukashenko will stay officially in power but now he's got a minder with a Reputation to make sure that he behaves.

Can't see Prigozhin staying meekly in Belorus for all that long though.

What's interesting about that is that the population clearly respected and liked Wagner far, far more than the standard police and Putin. They were welcoming Wagner and now this.

If this is consistent in the West (and East?) of Russia it indicates that Putin's problems with the population run very deep. He may tighten his grip into an even more Stalinist atmosphere.

Lukashenko has been reluctant to get involved hasn't he? At least that was my understanding a few months back, haven't kept entirely up to date I must admit due to being ridiculously busy IRL.

No clue what I've missed with all the deleted posts either but sounds like propaganda

If this is the case, would it be back to the old ways with many Russians being killed or maybe even starved as in the past?

Yes, he's tried hard to keep out of it - plus his army really does not want to go into Ukraine - but Putin's pressure kept up and the distance between them was decreasing.

He has been reluctant to get involved, despite pressure from the Kremlin to do so. The Belarussian army is small and not in great shape, so it wouldn't do well in Ukraine, and losing it would make him very vulnerable to domestic unrest.

It was propaganda you missed.

Thanks. So it's not outlandish to think WG could lead something from Belarus then. Such a crazy day and it's hard to know what to think tbh, so many things that don't appear to make sense today

And thanks MissConduct also, x post as I was replying to Ducks!