Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

[MagicFox]

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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What happens to the Russian soldiers who switched sides?

What a whacky 24 hours it has been. The mother of all U-turns by Progozhin in all senses of the word. I have no idea what to believe.

What happens to those who claimed asylum in Turkey?

Is Monday still a no work day in Moscow?

hear hear

Thank you to Ducks and all contributors. It has been a wild ride. Not sure it has ended yet.

I'm seeing tweets that Wagner have been persuaded not to go into Moscow by the Belarusian president whose name I can't spell.

Apologies. I am miles behind. Watching Glasto, not Mumsnet.

As you were.

Exactly - some will have shown how they will junmp when the chips are down.

I don't think it's been confirmed that anyone has claimed asylum in Turkey or that regular army units joined Wagner in rebellion.

There's been a lot of speculation and some of what has been reported will be deliberate misinformation.

Thank you for the kind words, though I do want to emphasise that I'm not a trained analyst!

Over the months doing the daily roundups, even with a bad memory one does absorb some things and you get to see the slow growth of certain themes and patterns. Mostly I say what I've observed, with a bit of historical background. Simply outlining those patterns can be useful, i think.

Sometimes I worry that I come across as a bit falsely-authoritative.

Quite.

It's an odd turn of events, something big must have been offered to wagner.

I wonder the same - what has been quietly moved while the whole world looks the other way

God that’s a thought. Like all good magicians

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If Putin has sold out Shoigu and Gerasimov and they are no longer Heads of the MoD and the Ukraine invasion, and they sell out Russia to the West in anger, I shall laugh.

No fear of that. Being on here is better than listening to Frank Gardiner, John Simpson and Chris Steele together.

I do enjoy your cheeky asides within square brackets

bloody hell, that's high praise =)

I love this thread. There's so much knowledge, so much good discussion (apart from the odd troll, one of whom is ridiculously persistent), so many different perspectives, and so much compassion for Ukraine.

One of the best things that a lady wrote a thread or two back was that she felt Ukraine was forgotten, and this thread reminded her that people do care, passionately, and that she and her people are not forgotten at all.

Well today has been absolutely exhausting mentally hasn’t it. I do get the sense that the genie is now out of the bottle though, others will take heed from Progozhin’s example.

I think Shoigu and Gerasimov might find themselves going out of windows quite soon...before they have a chance to spill any secrets.

Oh well

twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672681893710495748?t=91pMhZvuBAWYu5wipyHvjw&s=19

'People out on the streets of Rostov tonight, chanting:

“Wagner, Wagner, Wagner”

Sounds like lots of people wanted the coup to happen.
I also read there are lots of pissed off Wagner soldiers.

Placemarking.

Frank Gardiner has this take: it is "one-nil to President Putin".
He says Yevgeny Prigozhin expected people to "rise up and join him" but that did not happen.

Surely he can't think that this does not weaken Putin? (Although in one sense it may be one-nil to Putin as Prigo may well be dead soon).

I think it's weakened both of them

Putin, because wagner has shown they can march towards Moscow unopposed.

Prigozhin because (for whatever reason) he backed down.

Unless something else is going on

The flight that seemingly vanished from FR24 was descending so likely landed at Khotilovo Air Base. It is very normal for a flight like that to vanish.

Putin has gone fishing at Lake Valdai.
[probably to recover from killing Shoigu with his bear/bare hands]

Well that indicates just how very, very pissed off the Rostovians are with the MoD.

Putin's as weak as water at the moment though he's an amazing manipulator. But it seems that the people absolutely can't stand the current situation and in the long term, that's another very great weakness for Putin.