Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

I'm spending the evening on Twitter

Can hardly believe this is happening. It must be a psyop

@TokyoSushi

Please could you do me a favour and explain to me in very simple terms what's happening? Thank you kindly!

Hard to tell. Basically it’s gone batshit crazy in Russia.

Perhaps, having had their fighters shelled in a forest, the Wagnerites have united behind Prigozhin and have sent a column back over the legal border from Ukraine towards Rostov. They are going to take down Shoigu and put the country right. Perhaps not.

Surovkin has appeared in a video clutching a gun saying please don’t.

Video shows tanks in Moscow allegedly moving to secure the Duma.

There’s a coup, there isn’t, scores are being settled, or not; it just goes from weird to weirder. I’m waiting for Yeltsin to climb on a tank.

Thank you so much @MMBaranova massively appreciated.

I just read on Twitter that the thing to remember about Russia is that 'Everything is a lie and nothing is impossible' - sounds like that just about sums up tonight. I was going to bed, but I might wait a while...

I sympathise. I spot some shocking typos when I re-read my emails

I may do that too.

Someone should investigate the physics behind what happens when 3 walls of psyops smash into each other at warp speed. Might be an implosion of sorts.

Wtaf, basically.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672352313091178496 remember to take everything with a bucket of salt. Special operations forces have taken control of the Ministry of Defence in Moscow but whose side are they on. No one knows

It just smells fishy!

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1672356662693228544 Tanks arriving in Moscow allegedly to secure the Duma

Not just you!

Let's face it, that's more plausible than all the other rumours currently out there!

Wtaf, basically.

Also, this.

I strongly recommend Grammarly. I've used it for two years. It's an AI-driven writing assistant, so it checks grammar as well as checking spelling. It also suggests edits for clarity, brevity and tone. I am not as good a writer as I appear. 😁

It works in any browser window, as well as all of the MS Office applications.

It's also a Ukrainian company.

https://twitter.com/Sputnik_Not/status/1672355756912279553 Ukraine has run out of popcorn

A lot more coming out image-wise from Moscow. I’m not sure that is where the Wagnerites are headed, but this is spinning out of control.

I was reading about Pugachev's Rebellion, or Peasants' War, 1773–1775 this morning. Like you do. Took a long time to put it down but didn’t head for Moscow or St Petersburg. It set up a shadow state in the areas it held.

This current episode, if it is what it says it is, doesn’t have an extensive territorial base or, presumably, much of a logistical tail. It’s a dash? The Russian Legion etc. incursions of late have shown that a small force can push its way into Russia. This presumably involves a bigger force. One that is angry, is complaining about being starved of ammunition and presumably needs fuel if it is going far (unless it is fuel foraging in novel ways).

I suspect that it will end in tears for Prigozhin, but what do I know? He certainly seems to have cast the die.

Well. I may stay up and make popcorn.

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1672354862191788036 Lukashenko escaping from Minsk?

Wagner is the mercenary organisation, and an utterly vile one, that Putin's used regularly. Since merc organisations are illegal in Russia (!) they aren't ~supposed~ to be in Russia itself.

Wagner and the official Russian forces have been at loggerheads for a long time. Putin played one side off against the other.

The leader of Wagner, Prigozhin, has been more and more openly critical of the official Russian MoD and even taken potshots at Putin.

As Wagner was getting more and more powerful, the MoD finally persuaded Putin to make all mercenary organisations sign a contract with the MoD to be officially part of their forces.

Prigozhin refused. His erstwhile allies the Chechens did sign the contract.

All this is certain.

Now, tonight, Prigozhin claims the MoD forces fired on a Wagner camp and therefore he's hopping mad and getting violent against the MoD with talk of marching on Moscow (!)

No one really knows what's happening but something certainly is, because TASS has mentioned it and that's the official Russian news agency.

Seems to good to be true. It all feels so uncertain, on the one hand I’d love Putler to be overthrown, on the other hand Prigozhin terrifies me.

This is one of the few times I'm glad I'm four hours behind the UK.

The Telegraph is calling it a coup, and the WSJ is reporting the conflict but is not calling it a coup.

It seems that Surovikin, who used to work with and later for, Prigozhin, had thrown in with the MoD and asked Prigozhin to stop.

Prigozhin has said he'll put Surovikin on trial.

I suspect that it will end in tears for Prigozhin, but what do I know? He certainly seems to have cast the die.

I agree, but he has picked a suitable time. Russia has very few ground forces inside its borders to oppose him.

This could also work in Ukraine's favor.

It may be a fools hope but I would love for Putler to decide he needs his troops back home and promptly pulls the fuck out of Ukraine.

It is the F16 eggs upon the shells of which Ukrainian allies tread softly.

I can certainly believe that Russian troops are incompetent (or possibly drunk) enough to shell their own side.

Every Wagner fighter taken off of the front line is a good thing. Every Russian soldier engaged in suppressing a coup is one that isn't firing on Ukraine too. This might hasten the end of the war sooner than expected, though it would leave a very unstable power vacuum behind.

Wow, did not know Grammarly is a Ukrainian company. Let me at it! I suspect my work will not allow me to download it (pesky IT security) but will explore it in my personal laptop. Thanks for the tip.