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Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

994 replies

MagicFox · 13/05/2023 15:17

40 threads, still here πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

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221
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 15/05/2023 07:34

Wagner today: '20 out of 48 multi-storey buildings remain under enemy control' in Bakhmut.

... you mean, the UAF control almsot half of the city still?!

Mind you it's Wagner so it needs a sizeable amount of salt with it.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 15/05/2023 07:36

notimagain · 15/05/2023 07:31

Is this true? Who knows..

But I do get the impression heads are being messed with...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wagner-head-offered-reveal-russian-troop-locations-ukraine-washington-post-2023-05-15/

What the actual fuck?!

jaw drops

Oh I hope, I hope the Russian high command pick up on this and run to Putin with it ....

Igotjelly · 15/05/2023 08:04

Breaking News - Zelenskyy arrives in the UK for 'substantive negotiations' with the Prime Minister (Sky News 5 mins ago.)

MMBaranova · 15/05/2023 08:14

>... you mean, the UAF control almsot half of the city still?!

In terms of big buildings maybe. If they are saying it, and it's not a flattering conquest, it has some credibility.

As for Prigozhin being politically savvy, I'm not so sure. He's a repeat convict and caterer who rose to... well it's hard to say. He's odd and an exception in what is a freakshow anyway and will no doubt be studied by academics in the future. Kadyrov fills a similar position as a semi-autonomous insider-outsider, but has his Chechen Republic fiefdom. So while Kadyrov has a geographical and an ethnic base, Prigozhin has crockery, cutlery, heavy weapons and ammunition over dispersed sites and battlefields. And funding.

On a personal note, now that we have a non-Bank Holiday week, I seem to have a deluge of work. May is a strange month.

TokyoSushi · 15/05/2023 08:32

Late check in!

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 15/05/2023 10:45

@MMBaranova Good luck with the deluge! May is odd, isn't it.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-14-2023

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 12pm ET on May 14. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the May 15 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14.
  • Increasingly regular series of Russian drone and missile strikes are likely a part of a new Russian air campaign in Ukraine aimed at degrading Ukrainian abilities to conduct counteroffensive offensive operations in the near term.
  • Ukrainian forces continued counterattacking around Bakhmut on May 14.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is attempting to distract from recent Ukrainian successes near Bakhmut by praising Russian defensive efforts against the Ukrainian counterattacks.
  • Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s newly formed β€œClub of Angry Patriots” is continuing efforts to expand its presence and influence public discourse.
  • Russian forces conducted ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
  • Russian forces have not made additional confirmed gains in or around Bakhmut and continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  • Russian forces continued to fire on areas west of Hulyaipole in southern Ukraine.
  • Russian forces continue efforts to replenish manpower losses using prisoners.
  • Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to prepare for the September 2023 elections in occupied territories.

[No comments on Russian attacks within Bakhmut for the first time. If this is accurate and not an oversight, it's the first time in many months and an indication that the pressure on them is increasing]

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces launched an unspecified number of drones of varying models at Ukraine and that Ukrainian

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-14-2023

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 15/05/2023 11:02

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚑️Zelensky meets (https://kyivindependent.com/germany/) German leaders, calls on Berlin to support Ukraine's bid for fighter jets.
President Volodymyr Zelensky on May 14 made his first visit to Berlin during Russia's full-scale invasion and met German leaders, urging Germany to support Ukraine's long-standing bid to receive Western fighter jets.

⚑️Zelensky: Ukraine 'almost ready (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-a-few-visits-to-european-capitals/)' for successful counter-offensive.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 14 that Ukraine has almost enough weapons to begin its long-anticipated counter-offensive and that Ukrainian soldiers are "almost ready for success."

⚑️Military: Ukrainian forces capture (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-says-it-captured/) over more than 10 positions near Bakhmut.
In a Telegram post, Maliar said that Ukrainian forces on May 14 also liberated a considerable amount of area in a forest near Ivanivske, a village southwest of Bakhmut, and captured an undisclosed number of Russian soldiers from various units.

⚑️Zelensky arrives (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-paris/) in Paris, meets Macron.
Pictures and videos published on May 14 by Franceinfo show Zelensky disembarking from a plane at what was reported to be France's Villacoublay air base, before later photographs showed him meeting counterpart Emmanuel Macron at the Γ‰lysΓ©e Palace in Paris.

Ukraine war latest: 2 Russian commanders killed in Bakhmut as Ukraine ramps up counterattacks near the city (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-2-russian-commanders-killed-in-bakhmut-as-ukraine-ramps-up-counterattacks-near-the-city/)
The Russian Defense Ministry also said in its daily briefing that Colonel Vyacheslav Makarov, the commander of Russia’s 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade, and Colonel Yevgeny Brovko, deputy commander of an unspecified army corps, were killed in the Bakhmut area.

⚑️Washington Post: NATO lacks consensus (https://kyivindependent.com/washington-post-nato-lacks-consensus-on-ukraines-membership-ahead-of-vilnius-summit/) on Ukraine’s membership ahead of Vilnius summit.
NATO will not issue a formal invitation for Ukraine to join the alliance at the upcoming Vilnius summit in July, according to official sources interviewed by The Washington Post.

⚑️ France to provide (https://kyivindependent.com/france-to-provide-dozens-of-armored-vehicles-and-light-tanks/) dozens of armored vehicles and light tanks to Ukraine.
France will train and equip several Ukrainian battalions with dozens of armored vehicles and light tanks, including AMX-10RC, according to the Joint Declaration released after the leadership meeting on May 14.

⚑️Washington Post: Leaked US intelligence suggests Prigozhin in contact with Ukrainian intelligence (https://kyivindependent.com/washington-post-prigozhin-made-offers-with-ukraines-intelligence-directorate/).
Wagner mercenary group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin allegedly offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine in exchange for Ukrainian forces withdrawing from the area around Bakhmut, the Washington Post reported on May 15, citing leaked U.S. intelligence documents.

⚑️Reuters: UK to provide Ukraine with 'hundreds' of long-range attack drones. (kyivindependent.com/reuters-uk-to-provide-ukraine-with-hundreds-of-long-range-attack-drones/)
The U.K. will provide Ukraine with "hundreds" of attack drones that have a range of over 200 kilometers, Reuters reported on May 15.

⚑️ Sunak receives Zelensky at his country residence Chequers

⚑️General Staff: Norway to train around 3,200 Ukrainian soldiers (https://kyivindependent.com/norway-to-train-3-200-ukrainian-soldiers-in-2023/) in 2023.
Norway's Armed Forces will train roughly 3,200 Ukrainian soldiers in 2023, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on May 14. The training will take place both in Norway and abroad.

[good grief, it seems like northern Europe has finally caught up with the E European nations and there's a massive wave of help coming]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 15/05/2023 11:22

UNITED24 Media

Italy is ready to consider negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation only based on Volodymyr Zelenskyy's "ten points", β€” the head of the Foreign Ministry of Italy, Antonio Tajani, in an interview with La Stampa.

In Aachen, Germany, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the people of Ukraine received the Charlemagne Prize for their contribution to the unification of Europe.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Hungary, Peter SzijjΓ‘rtΓ³, paid a visit to China, where he intends to discuss, in particular, the war in Ukraine and Beijing's "peace plan".
SzijjΓ‘rtΓ³ also noted that Budapest does not want relations between Europe and Beijing to worsen and sees China as "a country with which cooperation means huge opportunities."

Volodymyr Zelenskyy almost lost his phone during a visit to Germany. After the meeting with Sholtz, Zelenskyy boarded the helicopter, and when everything was ready for takeoff, the president remembered about the phone.
The policeman helped and quickly returned the gadget to the President.

The Donetsk direction is receiving more and more ATGM weapons of various types, and with it, trained personnel. Fighters undergo professional training at the training grounds of Ukraine, and most of them also underwent training in NATO countries with foreign instructors.

πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ Britain will start training Ukrainian pilots in the summer, is working on providing Ukraine with an F-16
This is stated in the statement of the British government. For Ukrainian pilots, the program for training Royal Air Force pilots is being adapted.
Also, London is already working with other countries regarding the possible provision of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.

Russian airlines have applied to the Georgian authorities for permission to start flights to the country, β€” Civil Aviation Agency of Georgia.
Earlier, Tbilisi announced that it will allow direct flights of Russian airlines that have not been sanctioned.

The advance of our troops near Bakhmut is only a partial success. And this is exactly how he should be perceived, β€” the commander of the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi.
"The last days have shown that we can move forward and destroy the enemy even in such extremely difficult conditions. We are fighting with fewer resources than the enemy. At the same time, we manage to destroy his plans. All thanks to our fighters, who will fight against the aggressor, overcoming the highest limit of human capabilities.
However, this is only a partial success. And it should be perceived as such. The operation to defend Bakhmut is ongoing," Syrskyi said.
At the same time, Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Malyar reported that the situation in Bakhmut and its surroundings remains complicated, and the occupying forces are moving amphibious assault units in this direction.

As part of the Czech initiative "Darek pro Putina", volunteers gathered $2.3 million for the purchase of RM-70 anti-aircraft missiles in Ukraine
Also, 365 missiles are being purchased for the system. The RSV should be deployed within the next few weeks.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 15/05/2023 11:30

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Podolyak: Bakhmut is a prelude to a counteroffensive.
"Ukraine has taken the initiative into its own hands. This does not mean that Bakhmut will be liberated tomorrow, but heavy fighting will continue. The counteroffensive is not one event that started today and will end tomorrow, it is a multitude of actions, dozens and hundreds of actions, some of which are already underway. In my opinion, it will be a hot spring-summer season" - Podolyak in an interview with the German edition of Bild

Türkiye is likely to hold a second round of presidential elections. According to 89.24% of the ballots, Anadolu reports that Erdoğan has 49.94% of the vote. Kılıçdaroğlu has 44.30%.

Wagner Group CEO Prigozhin said that Russian aircraft were shot down by Russian air defense in the Bryansk region. All four sides of the fall formed a circle with a radius of about 20 km, and he concluded that "what air defense system could be located in the center of this circle?"

Two explosions occurred in Luhansk around 8 am. Locals say smoke rose over the building of the former Higher Aviation School of Navigators.

According to the DIU, 152,000 Russian troops remain in the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. All their actions indicate that they are preparing for defense. Civilians, including the staff of the seized nuclear power plant in Enerhodar, are being forcibly evacuated.

This summer, the UK will begin basic training for Ukrainian pilots to fly Western combat aircraft such as the F-16. The program used by the Royal Air Force pilots will be adapted for them.
The UK is also working with other allied countries to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighters.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 15/05/2023 11:40

Washington Post Telegram

  • Sunday’s meeting between Zelensky and French President Macron focused on France’s military assistance, including practical ways Paris can support Kyiv in its bid to liberate territories occupied by Russian forces.

- Chinese envoy Li Hui arrives in Kyiv on Monday. He will be the highest-ranking Chinese diplomat to visit since the start of the war.

  • Russian defense officials appear to be attempting to distract from Ukraine’s recent advances in Bakhmut by praising their troops’ claimed successes in repelling the Ukrainian counterattack, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War wrote.

Exclusive: Wagner chief offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says

(https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main)In late January, with his mercenary forces dying by the thousands in a fight for the ruined city of Bakhmut, Wagner Group owner Yevgeniy Prigozhin made Ukraine an extraordinary offer.

Prigozhin said that if Ukraine’s commanders withdrew their soldiers from the area around Bakhmut, he would give Kyiv information on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to attack them. Prigozhin conveyed the proposal to his contacts in Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, with whom he has maintained secret communications during the course of the war, according to previously unreported U.S. intelligence documents leaked on the group-chat platform Discord.

Prigozhin has publicly feuded with Russian military commanders, who he furiously claims have failed to equip and resupply his forces, which have provided vital support to Moscow’s war effort.

Chatillon · 15/05/2023 11:44

Interesting and probably the most honest thing that has come out of a Russian mouth over the last 12 months. He is right about some things.

Until last February I thought the Russian army was based upon some order and knowledge. Like the British and French armies, with skills and knowhow passed down from intake to intake. With Commissioned Officers learning from the battlefield experience of senior NCOs, Sergeants, WO1 and WO2s. Messages brought forward from 1707 following the restoration and the creation of the British Army. Deeply ingrained, secretly understood, passed down precisely.

But it seems the Russian army no longer, or never had, this knowledge. If they did it was a long time ago. Probably longer than 40 years ago, probably when Russia revolted just over a 100 years ago. With the exception of some small regiments of skilled fighters - probably rewriting the manuals in Syria or Africa - there seems to be no leadership on the battlefield. A Russian lieutenant or captain seems to have less skills than a British lance bombadier made up from gunner some six months after basic training. When they talk of a major getting killed it barely registers now in my mind.

It makes me wonder what happens now when Ukraine pushes Russia back as far as it can go. We are constantly told the existing line taken by Russia is too long for it to defend. In that case, so too is the existing border for Ukraine. It makes running Russia out of Crimea the easier bit in the context of what happens next. But I wonder what does happen when the counter offensive is concluded. In normal conditions, you go through the enemy and stop only when it is right to. Ukraine cannot do that. Ukraine cannot take 100 mile or so of Russian territory and attempt to have it turned over to a UN controlled territory. Nobody has a clue what happens next, in a year or so. I do wonder about that. This is going to be an interesting year.

notimagain · 15/05/2023 12:17

This summer, the UK will begin basic training for Ukrainian pilots to fly Western combat aircraft such as the F-16. The program used by the Royal Air Force pilots will be adapted for them.
The UK is also working with other allied countries to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighters.

A slightly puzzling announcement given that the UK has never had F-16s in it's inventory.

I guess the training refers down to a scheme (previously announced) where the Ukr AF could send some of their pilots to the UK to have some generic training in NATO style aircraft/cockpits (?Typhoon).

As for the supply of F-16s...maybe the idea is the UK can provide cash and lean on other countries, encouraging them to supply the airframes.

L1ttledrummergirl · 15/05/2023 12:24

I think that if Ukraine stop at the border, that sends a powerful message to the people of Russia that their leaders have lied to them. There is no danger of attack on Russian territory from Nato. It's not the leadership that need convincing, it's the people.

MissConductUS · 15/05/2023 14:12

notimagain · 15/05/2023 07:31

Is this true? Who knows..

But I do get the impression heads are being messed with...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wagner-head-offered-reveal-russian-troop-locations-ukraine-washington-post-2023-05-15/

I agree, it's psyops. Wagner knows where the Russian units are that are adjacent to their own forces. They have no idea where they are elsewhere.

Ukraine, on the other hand, knows exactly where Russian forces are thanks to their own intelligence and satellite, signals, and reconnaissance data supplied by Nato. There's a whole department in the Pentagon that does nothing but track the location and disposition of Russian forces worldwide.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 15/05/2023 15:53

Pmk

MissConductUS · 15/05/2023 17:09

Due to the UK providing Storm Shadow missiles, and now attack drones, I predict that the Russians will respond with rabid threats to attack the UK with Satan ICBMs and nuclear weapons carried by underwater drones. I predict that the response will look like this.

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent Russian threats and have therefore raised their security level from β€œMiffed” to β€œPeeved.” Soon, though, security levels may be raised yet again to β€œIrritated” or even β€œA Bit Cross.” The English have not been β€œA Bit Cross” since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out. Russia has been re-categorized from β€œTiresome” to β€œA Bloody Nuisance.” The last time the British issued a β€œBloody Nuisance” warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada.

With apologies to John Cleese. 😁

PerkingFaintly · 15/05/2023 17:30

BlushGrin

L1ttledrummergirl · 15/05/2023 18:05

@MissConductUS GrinBrew

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 15/05/2023 18:57

Hilarious MissConduct 🀣 We may have to roll our eyes and tut πŸ™„

Lukashenko supposedly still alive:

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
Surplus2requirements · 15/05/2023 19:05

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 15/05/2023 18:57

Hilarious MissConduct 🀣 We may have to roll our eyes and tut πŸ™„

Lukashenko supposedly still alive:

We've been in quizzically raised eye brow territory for a while now

minsmum · 15/05/2023 19:32

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1658127883045306368 defence of Ukraine we hear our enemy is panicking

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1658127883045306368

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