Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

[MagicFox]

40 threads, still here 🇺🇦

I'm only messing anyway. And I love Wales and the accent, even if sometimes I find it hard to follow (probably my hearing more than anything).

And, well, I live in the UK, so there's that. It's not as bad as people online make it out to be, nor is the continent orders of magnitude better.

Unfortunately, this whole Ukraine war invasion thing has made Europe look a tad naïve in world outlook, which then led to hard questions about national security and globalism, which we may be seeing getting rolled back. Which may make for some curious outcomes.

Germans never forget (or forgive!). You'll rue the day you thought Fritz was done with world domination!

Coming for your holiday sunbeds first, then... ack, too lazy to do anything more.

Astonished hilarity aside, the Free Russia fighters will have to retreat. I hope not too many lose their lives.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

*The UK’s Ministry of Defence said that the aviation group, referred to as “Shtorm,” will likely consist of at least one unit of Su-24 FENCER and Su-34 FULLBACK fighter-bombers and a unit of attack helicopters.

Could you maybe make a guess at how many aircraft in a 'unit'? how many are we talking here?*

I'm not really sure why the author of that piece used unit...it's non -defined...however I see other sources are saying it's one squadron of Fencers and Fullbacks.

FWIW traditionally a Russian fighter or fighter bomber squadron comprised about a dozen aircraft.

There's a very long, detailed read here on the complexities of finding and providing Ukraine with a significant number of suitable F-16s.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-f-16s-could-come-from-these-countries

Good article and looks like UA would get more modern versions... though time scales and amounts seem very fuzzy into the future.

Anyone know what the UK is training Ukrainian pilots on? i thought we don't use F-16s.

It's still a case of in the main roughly Mid Life Update/Block 50 equivalents, though a chance of a few with some newer knobs, whistles and perhaps on some airframes a decent air to air radar.

Anyone know what the UK is training Ukrainian pilots on? i thought we don't use F-16s.

I'm afraid I think Rishi! might be indulging in a tiny bit of showboating on this issue since as you say the UK has never had F-16.

Rumour has it the RAF might do some generic training to help familiarise pilots on NATO format flight displays, systems and weaponry. The UK also might facilitate putting Ukraine ab-initio pilots through some basic flying training.

The UKs own advanced, fast jet training system is heavily over subscribed with UK trainees experiencing massive delays before/between courses, so no flex there and no relevant aircraft to train on if there was capacity.

Thanks, @notimagain

So we're talking about possibly 24 aircraft. I wonder how many the Russians have left.

That's going to be nasty for the counteroffensive.

Ha Rishi lying!!! never! didn't he do similar with anti aircraft guns a few months ago?

This is too an important an issue for BS and PR ops.

Didn't UK/US intel say vast majority of Russian air force still intact recently, might have got wires x on that.

Didn't UK/US intel say vast majority of Russian air force still intact recently, might have got wires x on that.

I missed that one, if so. They have lost a considerable amount and the anti-aircraft defenses have made things more difficult, though sadly not impossible. There are clearly a considerable number left though.

The wonders of google.... i was beginning to think i was imagining it, i think i heard it on R4 news a while ago.

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/russian-air-force-lot-of-capability-left-ukraine-invasion/

urk, that's a shame @Howpo. I wonder how the well-documented increasing problems with maintaining aircraft within Russia are affecting the military aircraft. They'll be right at the top of the priority list ofc, so perhaps not much. (ChrisO did a thread on it)

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-22-2023

Key Takeaways

• Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russian Legion (LSR) conducted a raid into Belgorod Oblast on May 22.
• Ukrainian officials noted that they are aware of the attack but denied any direct involvement by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The raid prompted a slate of responses from local and federal Russian officials.
• The Russian information space responded with a similar degree of panic, factionalism, and incoherency as it tends to display when it experiences significant informational shocks.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces will withdraw from the entire frontline in Ukraine after June 1 in order to reconstitute and train for about two months. [and then what]
• Ukrainian officials stated that limited fighting continued in and around Bakhmut on May 22.
• The Russian informational response to the capture of Bakhmut has thus far focused on competing for responsibility for the victory rather than discussing the resulting military situation. The hyperfocus on claiming victory in Bakhmut distracts from the precarious Russian military situation in and around Bakhmut, underscoring the weight of Prigozhin’s influence in the information space. [I think this is significant, the weight of his influence]
• Russian forces launched another large-scale drone and missile strike against Ukrainian infrastructure on the night of May 21-22.
• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Kupyansk direction.
• Russian forces made marginal gains in the Avdiivka area and did not conduct any confirmed or claimed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
• The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant reportedly lost power for the seventh time since the beginning of the war.
• The Russian military is reportedly lowering the length of training for convicts in order to compensate for heavy losses.
• Russian occupation authorities announced that preliminary voting for the ruling United Russia Party has commenced in occupied territories.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Ukrenergo reconnects (https://kyivindependent.com/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-reconnected-to-ukrainian-power-system-as-four-oblasts-remain-partially-sut-off/)Zaporizhzhia** nuclear plant as 4 oblasts face partial blackouts.
Ukraine's state energy operator Ukrenergo reported restoring the external power line to the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, earlier damaged by Russian shelling.

⚡️ Defense Ministry: Ukrainian forces still fighting (https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-defense-minister-russia-sweeps-captured-bakhmut-territory-brings-reinforcements/) in Bakhmut, Russia brings reinforcements.
Ukrainian forces are still fighting in Bakhmut, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported.
She noted that Russian forces are conducting a sweep of captured parts of Bakhmut, bringing in further reinforcements and supplies.

⚡️US State Department: Giving Ukraine F-16 jets remains (https://kyivindependent.com/state-department-fighter-jet-coalition-remains-priority-for-the-us/) 'priority'.
Training Ukrainian pilots to use F-16s and working with allies to provide Ukraine with advanced fighter jets remains a "priority" for the U.S. in the coming months

⚡️Ukraine's military intelligence confirms (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-confirms-operation-by-russian-anti-government-groups-in-belgorod-region/) operation by Russian anti-government groups in Belgorod region.
Armed Russian anti-government groups allegedly fighting on Ukraine's side have started a combat operation in Russia's Belgorod Oblast, spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence Andrii Yusov told Suspilne news outlet on May 22.
The operation conducted by the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps aims "to liberate these territories from Putin's regime and push back the enemy to create a certain security zone for protecting Ukrainian civilians," said Yusov.
Earlier the same day, Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov claimed attacks on several settlements in his region, later saying that a Ukrainian sabotage-reconnaissance group had allegedly entered the Grayvoron district.

⚡️Presidential Office denies (https://kyivindependent.com/presidential-office-denies-kyivs-responsibility-for-alleged-fighting-in-russias-belgorod-oblast/) Kyiv's responsibility for alleged fighting in Russia's Belgorod Oblast.
The Ukrainian leadership has "nothing to do" with a May 22 combat operation in Russia's Belgorod Oblast reportedly carried out by Russian anti-government groups, according to Mykhailo Podoliak, an advisor to the head of Ukraine's Presidential Office.

⚡️Russian governor announces (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-governor-announces-counter-terrorist-operation-in-belgorod-oblast-claims-casualties/) 'counter-terrorist operation' in Belgorod Oblast, claims casualties.

⚡️ Russia’s sanctioned interior minister visits Saudi Arabia (https://kyivindependent.com/russias-sanctioned-interior-minister-visits-saudi-arabia-just-days-after-zelenskys-jeddah-trip/) just days after Zelensky.

⚡️ NATO Parliamentary Assembly recognizes (https://kyivindependent.com/nato-parliamentary-assembly-recognizes-russian-crimes-in-ukraine-as-genocide/) Russian crimes in Ukraine as genocide.
The NATO Parliamentary Assembly has unanimously recognized Russia's crimes against Ukraine as genocide, Yehor Cherniev, the head of Ukraine's delegation at the assembly, said on May 22.

⚡️Ukrainian troops shoot (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-troops-shoot-down-russian-helicopter-in-donetsk-oblast/) down Russian helicopter in Donetsk Oblast. According to the brigade's update, the helicopter was attempting to carry out an attack on the village of New York in Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️Washington Post: NATO allies consider (https://kyivindependent.com/washington-post-nato-allies-consider-israeli-style-security-agreement-for-ukraine/) Israeli-style security agreement for Ukraine.
Israel is not a member of NATO, and the U.S. is not bound by a treaty to come to its aid militarily. However, Israel "has enjoyed a special relationship with the U.S. as Washington’s most stalwart partner in the Middle East," the Washington Post wrote.

Inside the mission to evacuate civilians from Ukraine's front lines: Interview with UK volunteer (

Portugal rules (https://kyivindependent.com/portugal-no-f16s-yet-but-training/) out sending F-16s, open to training Ukrainian pilots.

⚡️Intelligence chief tells Russian soldiers to surrender (https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-tells-russian-soldiers-to-surrender-situation-on-front-line-to-only-get-worse/), says frontline situation will get worse.

⚡️Media: Armenian PM says he may recognize (https://kyivindependent.com/armenia-ready-to-recognize-karabakh-as-azerbaijan/) Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced on May 22 that his country is ready to recognize the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic as part of Azerbaijan if Baku guarantees the security and rights of Armenians living in the territory, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.
In return for recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, Yerevan wants Baku to recognize the full integrity of Armenia's 29,800 square kilometer territory.

⚡️Media: Mistress of top Kremlin propagandist gave birth in US.
Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov's mistress owns a villa next to members of the Russian military elite in the Black Sea resort of Sochi and gave birth to her children in the U.S., Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny's team reported on May 22. [lolol]

No less than 40 artillery systems destroyed.

UNITED 24 Media Telegram

🇳🇱 The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, Wopke Hoekstra, announced that the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters will begin "very soon"

🇰🇿 Kazakhstan did not agree to the appointment of the former head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration Serhii Hayday as ambassador to the country, they want to see a professional diplomat in his place

Russia is removing nuclear munitions from a storage facility near Graivoron in the Belgorod region, the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Andriy Yusov, said.

In the center of Moscow, the flag of the Legion "Freedom of Russia" was launched into the sky

The Finnish state company Gasum terminated the contract with Russia's Gazprom for gas supply through the pipeline.
The gas supply through the pipeline stopped in May 2022 due to Finland's refusal to pay for Russian gas in rubles. This concerns only the supply of gas through the gas pipeline. The long-term contract for the supply of Russian liquefied gas remains in force.

There is a strategic course for African-Ukrainian revival, — the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba, about work with African countries.
Ukraine tries to develop bilateral relations without intermediaries; the work is based on three principles: mutual respect, mutual interests, and mutual benefit.
"Ukraine's interests in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, the islands of the Pacific Ocean, and Asia.
And we have a lot to offer — goods and services, food, medicine, high-tech equipment, education, etc.," Kuleba writes in a column for "RBK-Ukraine".
We will also talk about the expansion of supplies of Ukrainian agricultural products within the framework of the grain initiative.

❗️Washington is informed that the Russian PMC "Wagner" is trying to hide its efforts to acquire military equipment and is using Mali for these purposes, — State Department

❗️By the end of the year, EU countries will train 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers. They also plan to send more weapons and anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine, — the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell.
According to Borrell, 15,000 military personnel have already completed training in European countries since the beginning of this year.
The head of European diplomacy also criticized the approach of some world leaders to identify the aggressor and the victim to end the war.

@Howpo

Ha Rishi lying!!! never! didn't he do similar with anti aircraft guns a few months ago?

Not sure I'd characterise it as lying but there does seem to be an effort being made to place him as being front and centre of the deal when in terms of actual materiel the Uk doesn't have airframes or type specific training to offer.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not denigrating the Uks overall brilliant and continuing contribution to Ukraine's efforts but on just this one particular issue the UK PM being front and centre, in the spotlight, is reminding me of certain Football Cup Finals and the behaviour of a Mr John Terry....(the footie fans will know what I'm on about).

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the "Ukrainian sabotage" in the Belgorod region is "a distraction from the Bakhmut direction" and the "loss" of the city. According to him, Russian troops are trying to destroy the "saboteurs," and they allegedly have enough forces to do so.

❗️A "counter-terrorism operation" has been introduced in Russia's Belgorod region as of today. People's documents will be checked, and the work of dangerous industries and organizations that use explosives, radioactive, chemical and biological hazardous substances will be suspended in the region, said Governor Gladkov.

⚡️⚡️Russians urgently evacuated a nuclear munitions storage facility in the Belgorod region, - representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Yusov.

Delivery of F-16s to Ukraine will take several months at best, says US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall
"A few months" is a relatively quick timeframe, as according to a US Air Force spokesman, it typically takes more than two years to train a new American pilot on the aircraft. Even a retraining course for an F-16 pilot who has been out of the aircraft for a while can take up to five months.

🇵🇱 EU High Representative Josep Borrell said that several countries, including Poland, have started training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s.

The United States suspects that Wagner PMC is trying to deliver weapons to its military in Ukraine through Mali.
According to the State Department, the group of companies tried to buy military systems from foreign suppliers and send these weapons through Mali. However, there is no indication that these arms purchases have taken place or been completed.

The La Razon newspaper writes that Brazilian President Lula da Silva avoided meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky three times at the G7 summit in Hiroshima. At one of the meetings, the leaders of the countries greeted Zelensky, but the Brazilian president did not. He felt "a little uncomfortable" being in the same room with him, the newspaper writes. Lula even avoided looking at the Ukrainian president.

Raid of the Legion "Freedom of Russia" and the "Russian Volunteer Corps" in the Belgorod region. What is known as of 15:00 22 May?

📍In a commentary, the representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Andriy Yusov said that the offensive in the region is carried out exclusively by the Legion and the RVC, i.e. Russian citizens. They are liberating their territory and creating a "security strip" to protect Ukrainian civilians from shelling. He called the raid a natural consequence of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

📍The Legion and RVC claimed to have "liberated" the village of Kozynka, and combined units allegedly entered the town of Hraivoron.

📍Governor of the Belgorod region Gladkov confirmed the fighting with the "subversive reconnaissance group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine".
Russian publics report fighting in the areas of Kozynka, Glotove and Hora Podil.

📍Preliminarily, the Grayvoron border crossing point was destroyed.

The first flags of free Russia met the dawn over the liberated cities

By the way, Belgorod region spent $124 million on defense

Gotta laugh at this one:

"Russia is now the second best army in russia."

More seriously I wonder what on earth the Kremlin is going to do.

More mischievously, seeing as how this has gone ... wouldn't it be a terrible, terrible thing if China decided it wanted to retake Haishenwai/Vladivostock from the Russians? Nice port on the Pacific and all.

Or the Japanese retake the Kurils?

Sorry if already posted but I can't get over the straightfaced, unbelievable trolling in this clip

Budanov did say that we should be prepared for surprises. This is spectacular

twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1660918473914982400?s=46&t=En7uHsBtveeyWz6jMQkU-A

Amazing :)

lol

Russian MOD claiming to have 'liquidated' the Belgorod freedom fighters. Journalist Chris Miller tells a different story:

https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1660972721642131462?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

I just got off the phone with the operation's leader, who was in a pretty good mood. Didn't sound at all like 70 of his fighters had been eliminated. In fact, he said the operation wasn't over.

Not unexpected. The VKS have been pretty absent in Ukraine proper.

We already know that the ground forces have taken the brunt of action. Outside the loss of Moskva, the major attrition is with the army and VDV.

How embarrassing. Sure hope they don’t blow up any more FSB and military stuff. That would be truly awful