Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

[MagicFox]

40 threads, still here 🇺🇦

Will wait to see what has been going on in Belgorod and how it plays out. One would assume that Russian forces are strong enough to deal with it quickly. If they are not, it says something about the areas where Ukrainian and Russian forces face each other with minimal conflict across the international border.

The fact that it happened at all is pretty telling. That it went on for hours (still going?) indicates an exploitable weakness you could drive a battalion through.

This is a good read.

There’s ‘something else’ going on elsewhere in the Belgorod area. Rebel Russian or Ukrainian forces have been active at Bogun-Gorodok, it seems. I need to work. I’ll root around in virtual Russian spaces later if I can.

My suspicion is that ‘all this’ is testing, diverting and destabilising.

From what I read, the Kremlin is very heavily downplaying it and virtually pretending it's not happening.

The Ukrainians are saying they've intercepted discussion about whom to send to the region. What's clear is that the Free Russia Legion was able to simply waltz in with wide grins.

Updated officer stats.

Well, i think saying we are sending UA 250 AA guns when none exist and saying we are training Ukraine pilots when we are not, is lying.

However, the UKs 1st response back in early '22 was crucial in Ukraine resisting the initial Russian efforts and for that a certain Bojo must be given credit.

I did hear a piece on R4 saying the UK has simulators that are compatible with F-16 training when it was first announced.

No idea how true that is but I guess the important bit is it was a fairly major part of a NATO policy shift

Be interesting to know what was meant the piece meant by “compatible” and whether they mean simulators run by/for the RAF or some in the private sector.

The closest analogue the RAF has to the F-16 is the Typhoon but there are major differences in cockpit layout, displays and switch positions, even seat positions between the two aircraft types.

As a result whilst you might be able to fudge some similarity in some of the displays with software there is a real danger of teaching inappropriate instrument scanning habits/false muscle memory and a whole host of other niggles.

OTOH there will be (well, certainly used to be) some basic desktop or simple fixed trainers that might be available to use for example teach some simple, generic aspects of weaponry, interceptions, even some air combat basics, but ultimately there would be no substitute ultimately for time in dedicated F-16 simulators and then quite a bit of time time on the real aircraft.

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1661023580182962181 day 454 of the 3 day war is also day 2 of the Russian invasion of Russia

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1661000873437216768 Colonel -General Alexsandr Lapin arrived in Belgorod to clear the Russian invasion of Russia, so far unsuccessfully

Is it wrong to hope and pray for one of those excellent Ukrainian snipers to be nearby?

No, it certainly isn't, i'll be crossing everything that there is one nearby too.

Well, it was Sunaks excellent decision to send Chally 2's that made Germany and others change their tune on sending Leopard 2's but i think it was Zelenskyys personal appeal at the G7 etc that made Biden change his mind on F-16s and not before time.

I guess many Western leaders want to be seen to be Zelenskyys BFF and if that helps the Ukrainians, thats all good.

Poland has said that they will train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16. They reportedly have a very modern fleet in terms of upgrades.

I don't think any nation has firmly committed to supplying the planes yet.

Poland Will Train Ukrainian Pilots To Fly F-16s - The Polish defense minister says that future Ukrainian F-16 pilots will start training in Poland, as a multinational effort comes together.

i think it was Zelenskyys personal appeal at the G7 etc that made Biden change his mind on F-16s and not before time.

It was reported that Blinken has been pushing very hard for a long time for tanks and now planes, too. Perhaps a combination of both things.

Can I ask a stupid question to you all so clever people? Is the legion fighting in Belgorod Russian or Ukrainian or both? I am seeing references on Twitter to both Russians and Ukrainians fighting
in Belgorod that is making me very confused!

Visigrad isn't always reliable and I can't bear to follow Strelkov, but if accurate the Russian invasion of Russia appears to be expanding.

Rumour (and it -is- only rumour) has it that General (Colonel-General?) Aleksandr Lapin has been sent to quell the invasion. He was commander from the Central Military District forces in Ukraine, replaced by Alexander Linkov and from January this year he is Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces.

A Russian legion fighting for Ukraine.

It's Russian soldiers, who refused to fight for the Kremlin and went to fight in Ukraine. There are a few units of Russians who are pro-Ukraine (or more likely to be accurate anti-Kremlin).

So they are literally Russians invading Russia, but these Russians have been fighting against the invading army in Ukraine. They won't have done that without the Ukrainian Army's say-so and direction much like the Foreign Legion made up of Westerners who fight under the Ukrainian Army's direction.

However, they do remain their own unit. Other anti-Kremlin Russian units have also 'invaded' Russian territory a couple of times.

Im guessing, but it's possible that they knew the offensive is coming and wanted to provide a really good distraction that benefited Ukraine. I suspect that this idea happened during a brainstorming session with top UA individuals and the Russian unit was told "this would be very useful for us, but you -would- be on your own. We can't support you".

The Russian Govt is saying they are Ukrainian (of course).

But Ukraine is claiming they are all Russian. Just had an interesting convo on Twitter about the trustworthiness of each side. His view was that Ukraine tends to be trustworthy in what it claims, but that it doesn't say a lot and now and then it allows other people's assumptions to flourish, if it benefits them.

So mostly honest, but keep alert.

Russian Govt claims on the other hand are a deliberate obfustication and set of extensive lies. You can't trust anything they say unless it has been independently verified by people on the ground / satellite analysis etc.

Thank you so much @Igotjelly and @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar that is a lot clearer!

I will go back to lurking now...

You can’t trust either side without independent verification. Propaganda isn’t a thing only your enemy uses, it’s very readily apparent in any conflict on either side. For example, the reporting of how Moskva sunk (“it just kinda exploded”, totally not poor CIWS and a UAF sea skimmer) or the recent Patriot battery shoot down of a Kinzhal (first reported, then hushed up likely by the US, then basically reported again as it was out there).

Take anything the Kyiv or Moscow regimes say with a huge grain of salt. They have vested interests. This is why Bellingcat and other OSINT sources try to collate things from the front as well as gov’t release and expert input. We do not know most of what is happening. But we can get pretty good educated guesses.

The Belford incursion is likely a mix of primarily Russian, but also Ukrainian personnel who have amassed a decent resource base to make such an attack. We definitely know of the Russian guys who are fully anti-Putin and have a vested interest in dethroning him, and I don’t find it a big stretch to see Ukrainians assisting in this endeavour, whether sanctioned or not.

My kingdom for an edit button!

Belford = Belgorod.