Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

[MagicFox]

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 🇺🇦

That is what I assumed too.

Ducks, any more news of whether the Ukraine counteroffensive has started? The ground seems too soft for that somehow.

Oh yes. In absentia.

And he finds it amusing too

The impression is generally that there are small movements here and there.

There's no great movements because of 1) equipment is, I get the impression, still arriving and 2) what you say, acres of mud.

The Russians seem to be quietly preparing to abandon some smaller settlements and there are small scale Ukrainian operations happening in the Zaporizhia area and smaller settlements in the Kherson region.

There have been different numbers bandied around about how many Ukrainians are preparing for the offensive, from between 35,000 to 60,000

Thanks, Ducks. Fingers crossed for UA's preparations.

I did not realise there is a British Tea Day. Any excuse to drink tea and admire a handsome duck

I posted up thread about what we know about the UAF order of battle for the offensive. I expect it to be substantially larger than that.

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4771315-ukraine-invasion-part-39?reply=125318639&utm_campaign=thread&utm_medium=share

@MissConductUS thanks for re-linking to the article. I remember bigger numbers being quoted there.

Total: estimated 90,000~100,000 troops in 20 brigades (4 Corps sized units)

FT had a recent article that Ukraine will need every man. They do.

And the 60,000 female soldiers of which about 10% are front line.

Yes, not forgetting the female soldiers! So much courage. I am in awe🇺🇦

• *https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-21-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces used a new delivery of Shahed drones to strike Ukraine for the third consecutive day, targeting Kyiv for the first time in 25 days.
• Commander of the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet Admiral Viktor Liina reportedly assumed command of the Russian Pacific Fleet following the completion of Russian drills in the Pacific.
• A Russian fighter-bomber accidentally bombed Belgorod on April 20.
• The Angry Patriots Club accused Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of supporting efforts to freeze the war in Ukraine.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law aimed at supporting the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to set conditions for domestic crackdowns and the removal of officials who have fallen out of favor.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces continued to advance in and around Bakhmut, although Russian forces have not completed a turning movement around the city.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front and conducted a limited ground attack in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces have established positions on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.
• Russian federal subjects are forming new cross-regional volunteer formations to support the ongoing force generation campaigns.
• Russian authorities are expanding the logistics capabilities and security measures on the Arabat Spit likely to prepare for a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Canadian Defense Ministry announces (https://kyivindependent.com/canadian-defense-ministry-announces-new-aid-package-for-ukraine/) new military aid package for Ukraine
According to the ministry's website, the aid package includes a $25 million contribution to NATO's Ukraine Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP) Trust Fund.=The aid package also includes $1.8 million for 40 .50 caliber sniper rifles, ammunition, spare parts, and accessories.

⚡️AP: US to begin (https://kyivindependent.com/ap-us-begins-abrams-tank-training-for-ukrainian-troops/) Abrams tank training for Ukrainian troops.

⚡️Media: Military summonses (https://kyivindependent.com/media-military-summonses-distributed-at-moscow-state-university-dormitory/) distributed at Moscow State University dormitory. [up until now students are supposed to have been except, and recruitment in Moscow has been limited].

⚡️Russian court arrests (https://kyivindependent.com/budanov-arrested-in-absentia-by-russian-court-for-terrorism/) Ukrainian intelligence chief in absentia over Crimean Bridge explosion.
A Russian court has arrested in absentia Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov for what they deemed the "terrorist attack" on the Kerch Bridge, Russian state media wrote on April 21

⚡️Bloomberg: Russian (https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-india-russia-arms-shipments-stalled/) arms shipments to India fall through due to financial sanctions.
Russian arms shipments to India have been hindered by the increasing difficulty of finding a payment system that doesn't violate U.S. sanctions, Bloomberg reported on April 21.
Due to U.S. sanctions against Russia, India cannot pay Moscow in dollars. Moreover, Russia will not accept rupees because of the currency's alleged exchange volatility, according to Bloomberg. Russian rubles likely cannot be purchased at a "fair rate" by New Delhi either.

⚡️Defense Minister: 'Tank coalition' meets (https://kyivindependent.com/defense-minister-tank-coalition-meets-at-ramstein-agrees-to-open-service-center-in-poland/) at Ramstein, agrees to open service center for Leopard tanks.

Belarus Weekly: Turkey helps Russia, Belarus evade sanctions, leak documents allege (https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-weekly-turkey-helps-russia-belarus-evade-sanctions-leak-documents-allege/)
Turkey has helped both Russia and Belarus evade Western sanctions, according to leaked U.S. intelligence documents. The authenticity of the documents couldn't be verified.
According to the classified document, which was one of several leaked on social media over the past few weeks, “Turkish companies purchased sanctioned goods” and “sold them in European markets.

⚡️Kuleba, Borrell discuss (https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-borrell-discuss-eu-ammunition-procurement-program-for-ukraine/) EU ammunition procurement program for Ukraine.

⚡️Borrell: Over 16,000 Ukrainian soldiers trained (https://kyivindependent.com/borrell-over-16-000-ukrainian-soldiers-trained-in-eu/) in EU.
The EU has also supplied Ukraine with more than 600 million euros in ammunition and missiles, according to Borrell.

⚡️SBU head: Moscow Patriarchate priest handed over (https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-head-moscow-patriarchate-priest-handed-over-to-russia-in-exchange-for-28-ukrainian-pows/) to Russia in exchange for 28 Ukrainian POWs.
A cleric of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP) convicted for collaborationism was handed over to Russia in exchange for 28 Ukrainian prisoners of war, the Security Service chief Vasyl Maliuk told Interfax Ukraine.

⚡️Austin: Allies deliver (https://kyivindependent.com/austin-allies-deliver-over-230-tanks-to-ukraine-over-past-months/) over 230 tanks to Ukraine over past months.

⚡️Minister: Latvia to send (https://kyivindependent.com/minister-latvia-to-send-ukraine-all-its-stinger-air-defense-systems/) Ukraine all its Stinger air defense systems.

Explainer: What we know about Russia's deportation of Ukrainian children (https://kyivindependent.com/explainer-what-we-know-about-russias-deportation-of-ukrainian-children/)
Over 19,000 children have been de facto abducted from the occupied territories and sent to Russia since last February, according to a Ukrainian national database. Only 361 children have been brought back to Ukraine as of April 21.

⚡️Pentagon chief at Ramstein summit: Russia's war 'not result but cause (https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-chief-at-ramstein-summit-russias-war-not-result-but-cause-of-nato-enlargement/) of NATO enlargement.'

⚡️Zelensky signs law (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-law-banning-place-names-associated-with-russian-aggression/) banning place names associated with Russian aggression.
The move is part of larger “de-Russification” efforts in Ukraine amid Russia’s full-scale invasion.

⚡️Finland approves (https://kyivindependent.com/finland-approves-15th-military-aid-package-to-ukraine/) 15th military aid package to Ukraine.
The package is set to include defense training equipment for the 30,000 Ukrainian troops taking part in the European Union Military Assistance Mission in Support of Ukraine (EUMAM).

⚡️Former dancer of the Odesa Opera killed (https://kyivindependent.com/odesa-opera-ballet-dancer-killed-in-combat/) while fighting for Ukraine.

⚡️IAEA: Shelling heard almost everyday (https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-shelling-heard-almost-everyday-near-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant/) near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts currently at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant have heard shelling almost every day over the past week, the agency said in an update published on April 21.

⚡️Authorities: Nearly 500 bodies of missing Ukrainian soldiers recovered (https://kyivindependent.com/authorities-nearly-500-bodies-of-missing-ukrainian-servicemembers-recovered/).

⚡️Portugal to send (https://kyivindependent.com/portugal-to-send-5-military-vehicles-to-ukraine/) 5 military vehicles to Ukraine.

⚡️New York Times: Airman began posting (https://kyivindependent.com/new-york-times/) US intelligence on Russian war effort more widely and longer than previously known.

⚡️ Spain to deliver (https://kyivindependent.com/media-spain-to-deliver-leopard-2-tanks-to-ukraine-in-coming-days/) Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine in coming days.
Six tanks are to be delivered "in the next few days," and four more will be sent later, when they are repaired.

⚡️ China's ambassador to France says former Soviet countries have ‘no status in international law.’ (kyivindependent.com/chinas-ambassador-to-france-says-former-soviet-countries-have-no-effective-status-in-international-law/)

I wonder if the increase in Ru personnel losses are because of the localized counteroffensives now, rather than the defense of Bakhmut.

• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces have established positions on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.

Is this as significant as it seems?

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Strikes by Ukraine on the territory of the Russian Federation are "quite normal" if they do not pose a threat to civilians, — German Defense Minister

🇨🇿 For the first time in modern history, the Czech Republic did without supplies of Russian gas in the first quarter of 2023, — the Minister of Industry and Trade of the country Jozef Sikela.

South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol will discuss support for Ukraine with Joe Biden during his visit to Washington, White House National Security Council Coordinator John Kirby said.

Russia expels three diplomatic employees of the German Consulate General in St. Petersburg in response to Berlin's "unfriendly steps," Russian media reported.

🇦🇱 Albania canceled the visa-free regime for citizens of the Russian Federation

Every country that currently possesses nuclear weapons must get rid of them. I know Russia and China would agree to that, — former US President Donald Trump on the Full Send podcast.
"They (the administration of Joe Biden, – ed.) constantly talk about global warming... This is reckless. We must get rid of nuclear weapons. China and Russia would go for it. I discussed this issue with Vladimir Putin; he liked the idea," Trump said. [Trump, that model of reason and clear-sighted assessments]

Battery manufacturer Duracell announces exit from the Russian market

In some areas in the direction of Bakhmut, the occupiers are advancing, but they are suffering unreasonably high losses, — Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Malyar.
At the same time, she noted that in most areas of the front, the enemy is restrained and cannot advance.

A maintenance and repair center for Leopard 2 tanks will be created in Poland — the results of the meeting of the "tank coalition" on the fields of "Ramstein".

Discussions on the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine continue, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said.

The leadership of Ukraine is aware of all the plans of the occupiers for the near future, – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy according to the results of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief Staff meeting.

At the request of the Ministry of Culture of Ukraine, YouTube deleted the videos about the "Wagner" PMC with more than 1 million views and the channels that distributed them, – Minister of Culture Oleksandr Tkachenko.

Oleksiy Reznikov held talks with the Minister of Defense of New Zealand, Andrew Little

Kazakhstan sharply increased oil exports bypassing Russia in the first quarter of 2023, — Reuters concerning analyst data.
The primary way of transporting Kazakh oil bypassing Russia passes through Azerbaijan. Oil shipments from the Caspian port of Aktau to Baku jumped to 163,436 tons in the first quarter — almost six times more than last year. Another 104,000 tons of oil were transported through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline.

Pressure on France to completely sever ties with Russia's nuclear sector is mounting as the EU considers its latest package of sanctions against Moscow, — Politico.
France does not depend on Russia for nuclear fuel and security of supply, but it bought 359 million euros worth of enriched uranium from Moscow last year, more than triple the amount it would buy in 2021.
This is not the only such agreement of the West. Last year, the United States bought $830 million worth of enriched uranium from Russia. Moscow also supplies reactor fuel to Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Finland, Slovakia, and Hungary.

A wonderful clip of some sculpture on the trench walls that some Ukrainian soldiers made.

It's interesting isn't it? Also that it came from a Russian source. Ukr is very tightlipped about what's going on and Russians don't usually talk about losses so assuming it's for real, then something significant must have happened. Ukr must think that they can hold it.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

In Kharkiv, 75-year-old Japanese volunteer Fuminori Tsuchiko, who had been hiding from shelling in the subway for 8 months, opened a free cafe called FuMi Caffe. The place serves hot lunches and bakes pies.
It is supported by philanthropists and the Japanese man's compatriots. Fuminori sold his house in his home country, plans to stay in Ukraine and help people. @katem98 [this is so lovely]

🇷🇴 Romania will not ban imports of Ukrainian grain and will wait for the European Commission to introduce support measures for farmers in Central and Eastern Europe - Agriculture Minister Petre Dea.

Zelensky signs bill on passing exams on knowledge of the Constitution, history of Ukraine and the state language to obtain citizenship.

At Ramstein, the Czech Republic proposed to expand the program of modernization of T-72 tanks for Ukraine, - Deputy Defense Minister of the Czech Republic.
Ukraine has already received 37 of the 90 modernized T-72 tanks it was supposed to receive, "and more are being added every month."

🚛Russia refused to allow trucks with wounded invaders who tried to enter its territory from the occupied Luhansk region to pass, and some soldiers died due to lack of medical care.
"On April 17, the enemy tried to carry out a medical evacuation from the temporarily occupied Luhansk region towards the village of Urazovo, Belgorod region. They used 14 trucks to transport the wounded occupants. While trying to cross the state border of Ukraine, the Russian side did not let the military convoy through and turned it back. It is known that during this movement, some of the enemy soldiers did not survive due to the lack of proper medical care."
Source: Facebook post of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

❗️Another unexploded bomb has been found in Belgorod, Russia, not far from where the first bomb fell on April 20. The city has announced the evacuation of more than three thousand people from houses located within 200 meters of the bomb.

Insufficient data to determine the significance. Unless the Russians are withdrawing from the area, the positions likely aren't permanent. They'd be too hard to defend on the opposite side of the river.

I think Trump has a point with Russia giving up nuclear weapons. If that were to happen, NATO could just breeze into Russia like the coalition did in Iraq in 1991. With no hardware and troops left, Nato could take the initiative and both the war and Russian imperialism would be over within five days.

The guy is a genius. Why didn’t Zelensky, Austin and Macron think of that?

• Russian forces used a new delivery of Shahed drones to strike Ukraine for the third consecutive day, targeting Kyiv for the first time in 25 days.

Damn those Iranians. This will deplete more of Ukraine's air defences. Good news that the US Patriot missile systems have arrived in Ukraine. This will hopefully deter air strikes by the Russians if they were so tempted by the recent Pentagon leaks.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-patriot-missile-system-4c79f9110899ca1880a61f2d1f328179

Bloomberg: Russian (https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-india-russia-arms-shipments-stalled/) arms shipments to India fall through due to financial sanctions.
Russian arms shipments to India have been hindered by the increasing difficulty of finding a payment system that doesn't violate U.S. sanctions, Bloomberg reported on April 21.
Due to U.S. sanctions against Russia, India cannot pay Moscow in dollars. Moreover, Russia will not accept rupees because of the currency's alleged exchange volatility, according to Bloomberg. Russian rubles likely cannot be purchased at a "fair rate" by New Delhi either.

haha

Luckily we have Trump to show us the way.

Much good information was made public in the press conference at the Ramstein contact group meeting yesterday. The transcript is well worth a read. You can also watch it on Youtube.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark A. Milley Hold a Post-Ukraine Defense Contact Group Press Conference, Ramstein Air Base, Germany

I'll just offer this excerpt, a comment by GEN Mark Milley, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. It's confirmation that the UAF have nine mechanized armored brigades trained and equipped by Nato. This is really bad news for the Russians.

GEN. MILLEY: Well, let me — let me start by saying that I'm not going to comment on future operations specifically or any of the substance that's in any of these leaks that are out there.

But I will say that our task and our commitment to Ukraine was to provide the — the training and the equipment for up to nine brigades, armored brigades, armored mech brigades to conduct either offensive or defensive operations. Those brigades are trained, they're manned and they're equipped, and they are prepared for combat operations. So whenever and wherever Ukraine chooses to use them, we will continue that support, and I am very confident in those units' ability to succeed.

@MissConductUS appreciate the link to the transcript. That is reassuring. I will sleep easier for Ukraine tonight.

Here's another reassuring quote from SECDEF Lloyd Austin that signals his expectations for the counteroffensive:

Unlike the Ukrainian forces who are highly motivated to fight for their country, to fight for their freedom, their democracy and their way of life, the Russians lack in leadership, they lack will, the morale is poor, and their discipline is eroding.

I think the Russians are more fragile and combat ineffective than many assume, and apparently, Secretary Austin agrees with me. He's a very smart soldier.

@MissConductUS

Thanks for the transcript.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-22-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian milbloggers have provided enough geolocated footage and textual reports to confirm that Ukrainian forces have established positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast as of April 22 though not at what scale or with what intentions.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely attempting to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to go over to the defensive ahead of a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• The Russian military command is likely attempting to convince Putin to turn to defensive operations as well—but is unable to bluntly deliver this message to Putin.
• The continued insistence on Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine suggests that the group that wants to freeze the war along the current front lines has not fully persuaded Putin of its views.
• Russian occupation authorities are continuing to oppress Roman Catholics in occupied Ukraine, likely in an effort to suppress Ukrainian religious institutions beyond the Kremlin’s control.
• A Russian fighter-bomber accidentally bombed Belgorod on April 21 with two FAB-500 bombs, one of which likely malfunctioned.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and near Siversk.
• Russian forces continued to advance around Bakhmut on April 22, although Russian forces have not completed a turning movement around the city.
• Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front and conducted a limited ground attack in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian authorities have made headway in their attempts to compel international recognition of Russian ownership over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
• Continued Russian efforts to block evacuations of wounded soldiers, likely to prevent soldiers from leaving the combat zone, have contributed to the deaths of some Russian soldiers.
• Russian occupation officials are expanding patronage networks in occupied territories.

Extra:

Geolocated footage published by a Russian milblogger on April 22 shows that Ukrainian forces have established positions on the Dnipro River bank north of Oleshky (7km southwest of Kherson City) and advanced up to the northern outskirts of the settlement on the E97 highway, as well as west of Dachi (10km south of Kherson City).[1] This footage also indicates that Russian forces may not control islands in the Kinka and Chaika rivers less than half a kilometer north of the geolocated Ukrainian positions near the Antonivsky Bridge

Prigozhin and Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers amplified claims that Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov’s son Nikolai Peskov is reportedly serving with Wagner in Ukraine—likely an information operation to publicly mend the relationship and possibly elevate Prigozhin’s loyalty to the