Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

[MagicFox]

🇺🇦 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community 🇺🇦

The WSJ reported the same, apparently a drone attack.

Russia Launches Push for Eastern City as It Struggles to Regain Military Initiative - Moscow seeks to surround Avdiivka but faces heavy losses, Ukraine’s military says

In Crimea, which Russia seized and occupied in 2014, Ukrainian military intelligence, known as HUR, said late Monday that Russian Kalibr cruise missiles had been destroyed in the city of Dzhankoi in the peninsula’s north while they were being transported by rail.

HUR didn’t say how many missiles were destroyed or how. Videos on social media showed a large explosion after what appeared to be a drone striking a railroad in Dzhankoi. Sergei Aksyonov, the Russia-installed head of Crimea, acknowledged that air defenses had fired in the area. The resulting wreckage damaged a house and a shop, and injured one person, he wrote on his Telegram channel.

Kyiv Post reporting:

The explosion in the city of #Dzhankoi destroyed Russian #Kalibr NK cruise missiles during their transportation by rail, #Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence reported regarding the explosions in #Crimea.

Sorry Crosspost

Worth reporting twice!

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-20-2023

Key Takeaways

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and offered a more reserved vision for Russian-Chinese relations than Putin likely desires.

Putin is likely increasing his attempts to rally the rest of the world against the West, although it remains unlikely that he will achieve decisive effects in this effort.

Wagner Group Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to maintain powerful political leverage and regional connections despite some officials’ attempts to distance themselves. Russian authorities are likely unsure of how to redefine Wagner’s new role following Prigozhin’s overextension of Wagner resources and support.

The Russian information space continues to respond to the International Criminal Court (ICC)’s issuance of arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Commissioner on Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova with ire and anxiety.

Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Andriy Yusov stated that the frequency of large Russian missile attacks has decreased.

Russia requested that the UN Security Council discuss Israeli airstrikes in Syria possibly in retaliation for Israel’s approval of export licenses for anti-drone jamming systems for Ukraine.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk.

Russian forces continued offensive operations near Svatove and Kreminna.

Russian forces continued making advances in and around Bakhmut.

Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline and made marginal gains near Avdiivka.

Russian sources claim that Russian forces are building up defensive fortifications and repelled Ukrainian reconnaissance-in-force operations in Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian sources accused unknown actors of planting a bomb that exploded near a gas pipeline in occupied Simferopol, Crimea.

Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged Russian difficulties obtaining components for high-tech industrial production.

Ukrainian partisans killed Russian-appointed head of the Kherson Oblast pre-detention center Serhii Moskalenko with an improvised explosive device on March 17.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Kyiv City Military Administration reduces (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/kyiv-city-military-administration-officially-reduces-curfew) curfew hours.

The Verkhovna Rada officially dismissed on March 20 Education Minister Serhiy Shkarlet, Strategic Industries Minister Pavlo Riabikin, and Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukrainska Pravda reported.

⚡️Official: EU ministers approve plan to procure 1 million artillery shells for Ukraine.
EU foreign and defense ministers on March 20 approved a plan to procure 1 million artillery shells for Ukraine, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said on Twitter.

⚡️Investigators say MP from Zelensky's party was sober (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/servant-of-the-people-deputys-car-accident-results-in-death-of-individual) during car accident.
The State Investigation Bureau argued that MP Volodymyr Hevko was sober and that the person killed in the accident did not cross the road using a designated pedestrian crossing.

Avdiivka, a front-line city in Donetsk Oblast surrounded by Russian forces on three sides, is under heavy fire from artillery, cluster munitions, and tanks, says our reporter Francis Farrell, as he heads out from the city on March 20.

⚡️US announces (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-announces-new-350-million-military-aid-package-for-ukraine) new $350 million military aid package for Ukraine.
Washington has approved an additional military assistance package for Ukraine worth $350 million, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on March 20.
The aid package includes "more ammunition for U.S.-provided HIMARS and howitzers, as well as ammunition for Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, HARM missiles, anti-tank weapons, riverine boats, and other equipment," according to Blinken's statement.

⚡️Ukraine receives (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/norway-delivers-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine) Leopard tanks from Norway.
Norway has delivered eight German-made Leopard 2 main battle tanks and four support vehicles to Ukraine, Norwegian Armed Forces reported on March 20.

⚡️Ukraine's military: Avdiivka (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-military-avdiivka-may-soon-become-second-bakhmut) may soon become 'second Bakhmut.'
Russian forces are trying to surround the city of Avdiivka in eastern Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian military spokesperson Oleksii Dmytrashkivskyi said on March 20, adding it could soon become "the second Bakhmut."
"However, not everything is so good within the Russian units carrying out attacks in this area," Dmytrashkivskyi said on national television, as cited by Ukrainska Pravda. "Over the past day, the enemy has lost about three companies of personnel there."

⚡️Ukraine's military intelligence says (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraines-military-intelligence-says-no-evidence-of-china-supplying-russia-with-weaponry) no evidence of China supplying Russia with weaponry.

⚡️Intelligence: Explosion in Crimea destroys (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/intelligence-explosion-in-crimea-destroys-russian-kalibr-missiles) Russian Kalibr missiles.
An explosion in the Crimean city of Dzhankoi destroyed Russian Kalibr cruise missiles during their railway transportation late on March 20, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate.

⚡️ Interfax Ukraine: Danilov refutes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/interfax-ukraine-danilov-refutes-politicos-claim-of-100-000-casualties-among-ukrainian-soldiers) Politico’s claim of 100,000 casualties among Ukrainian soldiers.
“I declare to you, with full responsibility, that we do not have 100,000 casualties in the military,”
National Security and Defense Secretary Oleksiy Danilov told Interfax Ukraine in reference to Politico's claim.

⚡️ Bloomberg: Hungary vetoed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bloomberg-hungary-vetoed-joint-eu-statement-on-putins-icc-arrest-warrant) joint EU statement on Putin’s ICC arrest warrant.

⚡️AP: Japanese PM Kishida travels (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ap-japanese-pm-kishida-travels-to-ukraine-on-march-21) to Ukraine on March 21.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is traveling to Ukraine for talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky on March 21, the Associated Press reported.

⚡️Reuters: Russia (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-russia-surpasses-saudi-arabia-as-chinas-top-crude-oil-supplier) surpasses Saudi Arabia as China's top crude oil supplier.

Nearly 1000 again and a fair bit of hardware.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Members of the Synod of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, led by Metropolitan Onufriy, arrived at the Presidential Office "to convey the position of the UOC-MP to the state leadership."

🤡 Russia's Investigative Committee has opened a case against the prosecutor and judges of the International Criminal Court in The Hague after they issued an arrest warrant for Putin. The IC said that the persecution of the Russian president "is deliberately illegal."

🇬🇧🇺🇦 Britain has signed an important digital trade agreement for Ukraine that will significantly strengthen trade and investment relations between the two countries.

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas confirms that the agreed plan for joint purchase of ammunition provides for the supply of 1 million shells to Ukraine.
Hungary refuses to participate in the EU project to purchase 1 million rounds of ammunition for Ukraine - Foreign Minister Szijjarto.

German Marder infantry fighting vehicles are on their way to Ukraine - German Defense Minister. [and trained soldiers]

🇵🇱Poland allows further arrests as part of investigation into Russian spy network - PAP.

Ukrainian polar explorers from the 28th expedition to the Akademik Vernadsky station received new chevrons. They depict jet penguins, which are partly associated with F-16 fighter jets. The inscription "Hi, Mars!" is symbolic of the fact that scientists are researching space weather in the Antarctic and also reminds of HIMARS. The polar explorers presented the first such chevron to Zelensky.

❤️Ukrainian drone operators drop sausages to a local dog [funny and sweet clip of Ukr soldiers attaching a string of sausages to a drone and dropping it next to a dog]

EU defense ministers propose to increase by 3.5 billion euros the European Peace Fund, which is used to compensate for military equipment and ammunition transferred to Ukraine - Borrell

Turkish authorities have estimated $104 billion in damages from the February 6 earthquakes with epicenters in the province of Kahramanmaras.
The total number of victims was 50,096 people killed and 107,204 injured.

There seem to be hints that Israel is providing at least some air defense to Ukraine and there have been calls for more. Russia doesn't like this and is raising Israeli bombings in the UN.

UNITED24 Telegram

The armed forces of Ukraine conducted a successful counterattack west of Bakhmut and pushed back the Russians in the area of the highway in the area of the settlement of Ivanivske, — the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

The arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin has been issued for life, – the International Criminal Court chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, on BBC Radio 4

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation published a list of Russian demands regarding extending the "grain agreement" after May 18.
Including:
▫️reconnecting Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT, unlocking assets and accounts of Russian agricultural companies;
▫️unblocking supplies of agricultural machinery and equipment;
▫️abolition of restrictions on insurance and access to ports;
▫️resumption of operation of the "Togliatti-Odesa" ammonia pipeline.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also said that if the agreement cannot be extended, Moscow will deliver grain to African countries for free.

Ukraine desperately needs air defense systems to protect the civilian population from attacks by Russian terrorists, Ambassador Yevhen Korniychuk said in the Israeli Knesset.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer discussed the treatment of Ukrainian military personnel abroad [Austria has stayed very reserved about this war]

❗️An explosion in the city of Dzhankoy in the north of the temporarily occupied Crimea destroyed the Russian Kalibr NK cruise missiles during their transportation by rail, the Main Intelligence Directorate informs.

The time has come to confiscate Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine, said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

To end the war in Ukraine, the Russian Federation demands to stop the supply of Western weapons, to recognize the temporarily occupied territories as Russian, and to confirm the non-aligned status of Ukraine, — the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
Moscow also demands the lifting of sanctions, the withdrawal of lawsuits against the Russian Federation, and the restoration of the status of the Russian language.

Australia supplies cardboard drones to Ukraine

Every month, the Australian company SYPAQ delivers about a hundred cardboard drones to Ukraine, writes BILD.

The armed forces of Ukraine use them to deliver ammunition and medicines to the front line and perform reconnaissance flights.

In addition, drones can drop small explosive devices on enemy positions.

Drones are delivered to Ukraine in the form of flat sheets of strong cardboard, from which you can easily and quickly assemble the aircraft. The manufacturer covers the cardboard with wax to prevent them from getting wet from rain and snow.

SYPAQ drones can be launched manually or by catapult. Depending on the model, their carrying capacity is from three to five kilograms. Cardboard devices can be in flight for up to three hours and cover distances from 40 to 120 km.

According to The Australian newspaper, Australian drones have already made 60 sorties into the war zone in Ukraine.

To end the war in Ukraine, the Russian Federation demands to stop the supply of Western weapons, to recognize the temporarily occupied territories as Russian, and to confirm the non-aligned status of Ukraine, — the statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
Moscow also demands the lifting of sanctions, the withdrawal of lawsuits against the Russian Federation, and the restoration of the status of the Russian language.

Are they taking the piss? This has to be a troll post surely. The Russian leadership can't possibly be that deluded.

Helpful of them to spell it out, though.

Nothing like putting a list of unreasonable demands in one place to make the ridiculousness of your position clear.

your position
one's position

A writer for the Washington Post, claimed to be Russian, is now speaking as if Crimea is legally Russian, it seems.

Time to be a bit more careful of the Wash Post.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · Today 14:47
A writer for the Washington Post, claimed to be Russian, is now speaking as if Crimea is legally Russian, it seems.

Time to be a bit more careful of the Wash Post

Indeed. How insidious.

Is anyone watching this BS Putin/XI press conference?

I'm following on Twitter but not live

Not following as working, thoughts?

Struggling to get
Consistent updates but so far headlines are:

1. Repetition of the usual talking points (China is for peace but won't condemn the war)
2. Bigging up the new power of Siberia pipeline
3. Russia says the yuan will be the new reserve currency (for trading between Russia & Asia/Africa/Latin America)

In the press conference Putin says if UK supplies Uraniam depleted shells to ukraine Russia will have to "act accordingly" as they have previously warned they would treat the supply of uraniam shells as a dirty bomb. He's responding to baroness goldie confirming this yesterday. I'm not sure why this has been agreed given the effects of those shells?

Statement from China and Russia on ukraine just published now

Usual blaming of NATO/the west

Re the Uranium - he's saying that this shows the collective west is now the one using "nuclear elements" in ukraine. So you can see where he's going. Anyway you can listen to the whole misery of the press conference here: https://www.youtube.com/live/rOmb7Evnh0k?feature=share

Umm...wonders if there's any evidence Russians have already used DU in any munitions in this conflict..

www.icbuw.eu/depleted-uranium-weapons-state-of-affairs-2022/#:~:text=Russia%20and%20Ukraine,modernized%20during%20the%20last%20years.

I doubt Putin et. al. give a stuff about the long term effect on the health of their conscripts but given what it can do to armour I'm not surprised the Russians don't like the idea of any heading in their direction on a two way range.

I'm also not sure why this has been agreed, it does seem rather questionable?