Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

[MagicFox]

🇺🇦 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community 🇺🇦

So what does this mean in practical terms? Is this the usual sabre rattling or cause for concern?

He's gaslighting I guess and saying that the west is sabre rattling here while stressing that the uraniam shells are a red line

If it's been brought up in this press conference I'd think the govt are going to have to not stay silent on this?

but only if someone else has them; Russia having them is Just Fine not a Red Line.

(How many red lines have we had from him now?)

True, I wonder, like @notimagain, if russia has been using them?

I suppose the word “uranium” is quite inflammatory and Putin has to be seen by his people as doing something. It just all seems to be getting quite scary again (although I can’t even begin to imagine the terror people in Ukraine are facing on a daily basis)

I think the emphasis of "nuclear" by the Russians in this context, and comments about "dirty bombs" is designed to make a misleading impression - we're into mind games again.

Nasty stuff but not a nuclear weapon.

Russia and China sign an agreements promising to "provide strong mutual support in defending each other's fundamental interests, above all sovereignty, territorial integrity, security, and development".

Not a surprise, it was always going to be a clear announcement of an alliance. China can't let Russia break up or get too strong - Russia will be a useful dog on a leash against the west (or specifically US). Yet if Russia wins in ukraine what does this mean for Europe? We're clearly in a new Cold War that I hope stays cold, but it's hard to get an handle on such a constantly changing landscape - especially when we're not really privy to a lot of the behind the scenes dancing

Ps I really recommend this podcast interview on China: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/chinatalk/id1289062927?i=1000605071816

I say that fully aware of the hot war in ukraine of course, that it's not so black and white

I wonder if/when Xi will speak to Zelensky?

Dirty bombs (radioactive material dispersed by conventional explosives) are indeed nasty stuff. DU shells are not particularly dangerous unless you get a fragment inside your body. They are used because they are extremely heavy and dense, and therefore good at penetrating armor (F=M*A), not because they are radioactive.

The Russians have had large stocks of DU tank shells for decades and have almost certainly been using them in Ukraine, given how short the are on ammunition of all sorts.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depleted_uranium

Sorry I'm spamming the thread with all my unfiltered thoughts but last point: it's worth noting that while Xi is in Russia, Kishida is visiting Ukraine and India.

Also re the Cold War analogies there's an article published today on GIS re the future of a Chinese-us arms race: www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-united-states-nuclear/

The Russians have had large stocks of DU tank shells for decades and have almost certainly been using them in Ukraine, given how short the are on ammunition of all sorts.

Ah well there you have it then! We'd also be talking about Ukrainian, not Russian, soil. He's very good at twisting things though, a real master of manipulation

I must admit, todays sabre rattling has me a little concerned.

T-80s are DU compatible and it's pretty inconceivable that Russia and to a lesser degree Ukraine haven't used any shells available to them

Ok I’m that poster that pops up every so often when they’re feeling anxious and I am feeling very anxious today after the press conference where putin directly called out the U.K. (again). Should I be? What could the next steps be?

It's not new in terms of the threats but I know what you mean. What helps me when I catastrophise is to try to remember that there are many possible outcomes alongside the worst case scenario and this is looking like a very long game, it may go on for years and years. It's not nice to live through these kinds of times, but our parents did it. Think of the Cold War. We've had it pretty good for a long time and it's hard to lose that and to readjust to a new world view. It's shit though, its shit

I’m actually pretty unfazed after today. As Roland Oliphant pointed out on their podcast, it’s all theatrics with very little material commitment. Undoubtedly we’re in Cold War 2 but we got through Cold Was 1 okay.

and in terms of a Russian response over DU shells. I’m assuming that it will be a similar response to that of the news of Finland/Sweden joining NATO or of the sending of tanks to Ukraine. Sweet fuck all.

Thanks Jelly, you always bring a much appreciated bit of calm!

@Skidamarinkadinkadink The thing is, Russia goes on and on about red lines and every single time, nothing happens.

By the way, someone actually put the work into recording how often Russians had waved the nuclear willy.

I think it was the Estonian president who said that Russia threatens and bullies and tantrums. If it works and people give way then Russia has gained something. If people don't give way, Russia has lost nothing.

Truthfully? I think Russia is already attacking the UK democracy - there's a fair bit of evidence for it and the govt has made it clear that this is happening and it's certainly carrying out cyber attacks etc. But the fact remains that if you give way to Russia then it knows its threats work, and it will come back and bite again and again and again.

As Ukraine found out to its cost.

I really rate Velina Tchakarova and this is her analysis, which makes crystal clear sense to me:

"Putin got from Xi visit the insurance that China will provide the main lifeline for Moscow to survive the Western sanctions and the key defence-technological cooperation for Moscow to sustain the war of attrition. Putin bet on China when he decided to make a move on Ukraine and his assessment turned to be correct. Now, Russia’s victory (even frozen conflict) over Ukraine is China’s best case scenario to confront the US with two fronts in the upcoming systemic conflict between Washington and Beijing. We’re already living in Cold War 2.0 between the West and the #DragonBear; and the moment when China decides to deliver military aid to Russia, this war will officially turn into a proxy war. This will also be the moment when Russia officially will lose its global power status, which us why Moscow is trying to refrain from it at an industrial scale."

God it really is ludicrous when you see it on black and white like that.

Honestly, Russia is just a sideshow to the new Cold War that happening between the USA and China. RU can't win in Ukraine; they can barely hold onto their present territory and they are terrified of an attack on Crimea. If they are stupid enough to drop a bomb on a NATO country, all bets are off. That's the only time I foresee any type of military action on Russian soil.

Xi, on the other hand, has found it useful to tie Russia to China, if only to prevent them cosying up to the USA in the future. Russia has a long history of fucking up and fucking over China.

I would be more concerned if they got India onboard.