Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

[MagicFox]

🇺🇦 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community 🇺🇦

There are reports of multiple missile strikes in addition to the attack in Mariupol, beyond HIMARS range.

twitter.com/Tendar/status/1628166770996420616

A long-range precision strike weapon, GLSDB or not, will undoubtedly shape the conflict zone and force the Russians to move targets further back again. The stated range of the GLSDB puts all of the occupied territories and much of northern Crimea in strike range.

Belated happy birthday MB💙💛💐

Thank you to everyone that posts, I have lurked on every thread, the information you post is so informative. I can’t believe it has been nearly a year and this is thread 38. Every time we start a new one, I pray it will be the one with the best news.

Thank you very much, Magic Fox, and all of you who have kept up such a constant flow of important information.

Thank you ☺️ it’s not belated, it’s still today 🎉

Thank you, all the horror of their use aside it's heartening to think long range systems are entering the theater

I love the look of a fresh thread.

Mike Martin's added afresh crayon map on Twitter and his thoughts on what may happen next. I've found him less hysterical than most on twitter and worth reading.

twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1628376681793699840?t=4i9wEzQyuZAkt5DscT7ZoA&s=19

TL:DR: The Russians are repeating their mistakes resulting in high troop losses (again). The Ukrainians are getting more equipment now (including night vision goggles), which means there's going to be a massive counterpunch after April. Next year is a USA election year (risky), so they have to make the most of the next campaign season.

Yes the elections are on my mind too. I'm also very uneasy about the rumours re China considering providing lethal aid. If they did it would be an awful awful thing for the whole world. On balance though I can't see how it is ultimately to their advantage to do so. There's another boiling flashpoint with Iran and Israel too that's zig zagging all over this. The picture is getting more and more weblike

Good comments from SECDEF Lloyd Austin today on NPR.

A year in, the U.S. makes a pledge: 'Ukraine will decide what victory looks like'

Here's an excerpt.

On what he expects in spring offensive operations from Russia and Ukraine

Well, as we've seen for the last several weeks, fighting around the Bakhmut area has been pretty intense.

Russia continues to pour in large numbers of troops that are ill-trained and ill-equipped. In many cases, those troops are meeting their demise in short order. And so we can expect to see more of that.

As Ukraine works to the hold it ground, it's also building combat power ... So I think that that will provide Ukraine an opportunity to begin to change the dynamics on the battlefield.

@MissConductUS let's hope the change comes soon and is decisive but atm it feels like countless lives on both sides are being spent to do nothing more than maintain a stalemate.

Posted on thread 37 by mistake.

Thanks Ducks as always for the key takeaways.

The "big offensive" of the Russians has been going on for more than a week, – Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the NSDCI

The head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense Budanov gave an interview to Forbes. The main thing:
▫️The great offensive of the Russian Federation, which was talked about, is already underway, but in such a way that not everyone sees it. Such is the quality of this offensive. The Russians have a strategic task — to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31.

I chuckled at this. It must be the offensive of a worm. Did I see it move, no no. Are they in yet? Of course not funny in real life because Ukrainian soldiers are no doubt still losing their lives.

Ukraine has identified 16,226 children abducted by Russia from the occupied territories, Daria Gerasymchuk, the representative of the President of Ukraine on children's rights, said during a meeting with representatives of the Ukrainian community in New York.
According to the children's ombudsman, the total number of children taken to the territory of the Russian Federation may reach hundreds of thousands. At the same time, only 307 abductees have been returned home.

If Sophie's Choice reduced me to tears, I simply cannot process the collective horror of this.

In 2021, German automaker Volksvagen Group and French improvement goods retailer Leroy Merlin topped the list of highest-earning foreing businesses in Russia with 517 billions rubles and 457 billion rubles respectively. It is a lot of money, ain't it?

It is - wtf? VW, Leroy Merlin (DIY store) and Auchan must be coining it after all their more ethical Western competitors in Russia have exited the country. Fuckers. I see it in my industry as well. Few firms want to touch Russian work, even if it is non-sanctioned, for reputational reasons. But those who are prepared to get their hands dirty will immediately become a magnet for scummy clients. There are rich pickings for those who can overlook their morals.

It all feels quite scary at the moment. Not sure if it’s just because it’s the run up to the anniversary.

I feel like something is bubbling with China and I’m not sure it’s going to be good.

I’m joining again, I was on the early threads probably under a different username. Thanks for keeping this going .

That's how I feel too @Igotjelly :-(

I also lost you, glad to be here. I'm a bit nervy about this bubbling into a big old mess that impacts in ways that I have absolutely no way of anticipating.

I wonder if Xi's speech on Friday will be about how peace can be achieved through a new world order, the multipolar narrative sold hard, a promotion of Russia at the expense of the US and a leaning on China's leverage with both? It's telling that on this trip Wang Yi won't set foot in Ukraine itself. Nor Xi.

Nealry a year wow, I was on these threads when they first started.

I don't post much at all now but they are fabulous still. Thanks to those who keep them going, they are my go too when I want updated info.

Awful anniversary though.

We don't seem to hear much anymore about what's going on in Russia, we used to get break outs of how people feel but it's eerily quiet.

Putin: "There are battles going in within our historical frontiers" ....today in his stadium speech.

So yet again he confirms that his objective is to subsume Ukraine within Russia as he doesn't think it should be a separate sovereign state.

Thank you for a new thread. I haven't any useful knowledge to add, but appreciate other people's.

Whilst surfing the interweb yesterday, I came across this video from geopolitical analyst Peter Zaihan who says that China has 10 years left, max, particularly due to a demographic collapse from an aging population.

Wishful thinking perhaps. Anyone heard of Peter Zaihan?

No but the fact he’s on Joe Rogan doesn’t fill me with confidence.

Budanov is a lethal mix of baby face and steel. That quote made me laugh and I can picture him saying it, with his evil chuckle

Thanks. Just googled Joe Rogan. Yup, controversial.

Could be wrong but every time people get nervous about Russia planning something nasty on an anniversary, it generally turns out to be a terribly damp squib. All the speeches, all the announcements, somewhat tedious instead of really scary.

Maybe he wanted to win the war by boring us all to death?

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