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Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

983 replies

MagicFox · 22/02/2023 15:03

🇺🇦 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community 🇺🇦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
145
blueshoes · 23/02/2023 01:03

@MissConductUS have a great time in Florida. Your insights will be missed.

melonraspberry · 23/02/2023 06:34

I was hearing yesterday (not sure if a news prog or podcast) that China will be firm on holding Putin back from nuclear escalation, so an important relationship from that pov.

MagicFox · 23/02/2023 06:45

Peter Zeihan is a good analyst (ignore that he was on Rogan). He can be very pessimistic but he's pretty good

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 23/02/2023 07:03

MagicFox · 23/02/2023 06:45

Peter Zeihan is a good analyst (ignore that he was on Rogan). He can be very pessimistic but he's pretty good

Oh that’s interesting. Will need to give the pod a listen and ignore Joe Rogan 😂

Mb76 · 23/02/2023 07:30

MissConductUS · 22/02/2023 18:34

And happy Birthday, @Mb76 ! CakeWine

I'm off to Florida for a few days tomorrow, so apologies in advance if I appear to be missing in action.

Thank you 😊

And have a lovely time in Florida, whereabouts in Florida are you off to? 🍊

Natsku · 23/02/2023 08:46

Nice bit of amusing news from the world of Russian troll farms, trying hard on Finnish twitter but being let down by the inadequacies of google translate Grin
Basically there's two words for 'save' in Finnish, one being the kind that you use when rescuing someone or something and the other being the kind that you use when you're saving your word file on the computer. The Russian trolls were using the latter when trying to claim that NATO won't save Finland.
yle.fi/a/74-20018878

Igotjelly · 23/02/2023 08:50

Natsku · 23/02/2023 08:46

Nice bit of amusing news from the world of Russian troll farms, trying hard on Finnish twitter but being let down by the inadequacies of google translate Grin
Basically there's two words for 'save' in Finnish, one being the kind that you use when rescuing someone or something and the other being the kind that you use when you're saving your word file on the computer. The Russian trolls were using the latter when trying to claim that NATO won't save Finland.
yle.fi/a/74-20018878

Grin I love this! Idiots.

MissConductUS · 23/02/2023 09:41

Surplus2requirements · 22/02/2023 21:31

@MissConductUS let's hope the change comes soon and is decisive but atm it feels like countless lives on both sides are being spent to do nothing more than maintain a stalemate.

I know that it feels that way, but from the Ukrainian point of view, they are using part of their forces to tie down a numerically larger Russian force and preventing them from making any significant gain. The rest of their forces are retraining, reequipping and integrating lots of new armor and other kit in preparation for a major new offensive. So it's time well spent for them.

And have a lovely time in Florida, whereabouts in Florida are you off to?

Orlando. It's a work-related event, unfortunately. But I will get some time by the pool today and tomorrow afternoon. Perhaps I'll post a picture. The resort is supposed to be quite posh.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 23/02/2023 09:46

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-22-2023

Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin revived his imperialistic narrative that Russia is fighting for Russia's "historic frontiers" on February 22, a narrative that he had similarly voiced in his speech before the re-invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Putin's speech also followed his February 21 decree revoking his May 2012 edict on Russia's position toward Moldovan territorial integrity.

Ukrainian intelligence officials continue to assess that Russia lacks the combat power and resources necessary to sustain its new offensive operations in Ukraine.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin directly accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of mistreating Wagner forces, igniting intense backlash in the information space and supporting ISW's prior assessments of a growing Wagner-MoD fissure.

US State Department Spokesperson Ned Price stated that the US government is concerned about the potential strengthening of Russia-China relations.

Russian forces are likely attempting to increase the tempo of their offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Lyman line.

Some Russian sources refuted other Russian claims about the intensification of offensive operations in western Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks throughout the Donetsk Oblast front line and secured marginal territorial gains around Bakhmut.

Russian and occupation authorities continue to publicly indicate that Russian forces are focusing on defensive operations in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast and Crimea.

US intelligence officials stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin may mobilize significantly more Russian personnel.

[worth noting: Budanov noted that Russia had committed more than 90 percent of its 316,000 mobilized personnel to the frontlines, which further confirms Western and ISW's assessments that Russian forces do not have significant untapped combat-ready reserves.[8] Budanov noted that the Kremlin's stated objective of producing 800 tanks per year is unrealistic and stated that Russia can only produce 40 cruise missiles per month, which they use up in a single round of missile strikes. Russia has already lost at least 1,500 tanks and possibly as many as 2,000, as ISW has previously reporte]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 23/02/2023 10:02

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Zelensky submits resolution to impose sanctions (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-submits-resolution-sanctioning-all-russian-financial-institutions) on all Russian financial institutions.
President Volodymyr Zelensky submitted the draft law to parliament on Feb. 22.
Under the proposed economic sanctions, all financial institutions located or registered in Russia, including banks, insurance companies, payment systems, investment funds, non-bank credit organizations, and others, would be banned for up to 50 years.

⚡️Air Force spokesman: S-300 missiles used (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/air-force-spokesman-s-300-missiles-used-to-attack-kharkiv) to attack Kharkiv

Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles confirmed that Spain will transfer 6 renovated Leopard 2 A4 main battle tanks to Ukraine, reports El Pais. The goal is to have the tanks in Ukraine by the end of March or early April.

⚡️Politico: Hungarian PM threatens (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/politico-hungarys-orban-threatening-to-veto-eu-sanctions-against-russia) to veto EU sanctions against Russia.
One of the reasons is that Hungary wants four individuals to be removed from the list.

⚡️MP from Zelensky's party charged with bribery concludes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/mp-from-zelenskys-party-charged-with-bribery-admits-wrongdoing-court-rules-fine) plea bargain.
Oleksandr Trukhin, a lawmaker from the ruling Servant of the People party, said on Feb. 22 he had concluded a plea bargain with investigators and pleaded guilty to offering a bribe to a police officer.

⚡️Wagner boss slams (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/wagner-group-boss-again-slams-russias-defemse-ministry-for-shell-hunger) Russia’s defense ministry for not providing ammo.
[poor whiny Prigozhin]

⚡️Sunak: Providing fighter jets to Ukraine would be complicated (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sunak-uk-ready-to-assist-countries-providing-fighter-jets-to-ukraine) .

the U.S. has promised to provide Ukraine with GLSDB missiles but they are expected to arrive in nine months, which may be too late.

⚡️Bloomberg: Ukraine may access (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bloomberg-g-7-nations-plan-to-support-ukraines-effort-to-access-imf-financing-by-end-of-march) IMF's $15 billion package by end of March.

⚡️Zelensky: Bill registered (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/lawmaker-ukraine-to-resume-declaration-of-wealth-of-officials-m-ps) to resume asset declarations for officials.
Zelensky, who responded to a petition, did not say explicitly whether he supported the proposal. It's not clear why the bill, which was registered in September, has not been approved yet.
After Russia launched its full-scale invasion, the Ukrainian authorities allowed officials not to file electronic asset declarations. Watchdogs say that Ukraine's asset declaration system has been effectively destroyed, with martial law used as a pretext by corrupt officials.

⚡️Ex-infrastructure minister charged with abuse of power (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/anti-corruption-prosecutors-ex-infrastructure-minister-suspected-of-power-abuse) in corruption case.
Ukraine's Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office on Feb. 22 charged ex-Infrastructure Minister Andriy Pyvovarsky and his deputy of abuse of power.

⚡️Reuters: EU fails (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-eu-still-hasnt-agreed-on-new-sanctions-against-russia-talks-continue) to agree on new sanctions against Russia, talks to continue.

⚡️WSJ: US contemplates intel release on China’s potential arms transfer
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/wsj-us-contemplates-intel-release-on-chinas-potential-arms-transfer-to-russia)to Russia.
The Biden administration is considering releasing intelligence it believes shows that China is examing possibilities on whether to supply weapons to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reports citing U.S. officials.

⚡️UN chief calls (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/un-chief-calls-russian-invasion-an-affront-ahead-of-one-year-anniversary) Russian invasion an 'affront' ahead of one year anniversary.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine "an affront to our collective conscience" at the UN General Assembly on Feb. 22, the BBC reported.

General Staff: Ukraine repels near 90 Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraine-repels-near-90-russian-attacks-over-past-day) over past day.

⚡️Spanish Prime Minister arrives (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/spanish-prime-minister-arrives-in-kyiv) in Kyiv.

Losses a little higher again, including 16 tanks and 24 APVs and 7 artillery.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 23/02/2023 10:14

Live:Ukraine Telegram

🇷🇺 🇮🇷 Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the GUR, said that Russia had brought a test batch of 20,000 shells from Iran and was now trying to get another. He noted that this is an extremely small amount for such an intense war, but it confirms that the enemy is running out of supplies.

Chinese authorities have banned local tech companies from offering users access to ChatGPT chatbot in their services. Alibaba, Tencent, and Ant Group have already received such orders from regulators, Nikkei reports citing sources. The ban is related to the authorities' concerns about the responses of uncensored artificial intelligence. To launch analogs of ChatGPT, Chinese companies must obtain a special permit from the authorities.

In Russia, a Pantsir-S1 air defense system was spotted in front of the Luzhniki Stadium, where thousands of people with Russian flags gathered for a concert on February 22 and Putin was speaking.

Russia is preparing a plan "land for peace" - Danilov
"Internal destabilization in Ukraine is the only way for Russia to avoid military defeat. The Kremlin is launching a "virus" - the idea of a possible compromise. On international platforms and inside Ukraine, Russia is promoting the idea of Ukraine's giving up the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk regions and Crimea in exchange for ending the war," noted the NSDC Secretary.

During their meeting in Warsaw, the leaders of the Bucharest Nine reaffirmed their support for Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic aspirations and called Russia "the most significant and direct threat to the security of the Alliance."

Russians living in Latvia have vandalized a Holocaust Memorial near Riga

On February 23-24, the occupiers may launch a small missile attack on Ukraine, the head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, told Ukrayinska Pravda. According to him, there will be no extremely large-scale shelling. "We have already experienced this more than 20 times," he added

The captain and commander of the 1st Battalion of the Azov Regiment, Oleh Mudrak (Sukhar), who spent 6 months in Russian captivity after defending Azovstal, has passed away

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 23/02/2023 10:25

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Russia can mobilize another million people, – the head of the Federal Intelligence Service of Germany, Bruno Kahl

The number of the enemy involved in the territory of Ukraine and its surroundings is a little more than 350 thousand people, – Commander of the Joint Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Serhii Naiev

Zelenskyy plans to personally visit the NATO summit on July 11-12.

In the near future, we expect the first tanks from partners with trained crews, – Reznikov

On February 22, an installation called Russkiy Mir was installed near the Russian Embassy in Berlin, which is designed to explain the danger of the ideology of the "Russian World" to European society
n addition, the organizers also published the newspaper Russkiy Mir Zeitung, which contains original materials from the Russian mass media translated into German. This newspaper demonstrates the level of propaganda carried out by the Russian Federation inside the country.

Ukraine will discuss extending the grain agreement for another year this week, — Reuters
The deal was extended in November and will expire on March 18 unless an extension is agreed.

❗️China, as before, will firmly adhere to an objective and impartial position and play a constructive role in the political settlement of the crisis in Ukraine, – the head of the Chinese diplomacy, Wang Yi.

The International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) has suspended the membership of the main trade union of journalists in the Russian Federation after the Russians created their branches in the temporarily occupied regions of Ukraine, – The Guardian

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed Ukrainian peace initiatives at the UN with Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni.

For the first time, EU countries received more electricity from renewable sources than from gas
According to the British analytical center Ember, in 2022 wind and solar power plants produced 22% of electricity in the EU, and gas – 20%. Coal produced 16% of electricity.

Russia refuses to launch Zircon hypersonic missile at joint exercises with China

The Swiss government demands from the parliament the approval of additional humanitarian aid to Ukraine and Moldova in the amount of 143 million dollars, — The Guardian
Most of the funds in the amount of 116 million dollars will be directed to the needs of Ukraine, while it is planned to allocate 27 million dollars for Moldova.
The planned assistance to Ukraine will be directed to schools, repairs of hospitals and energy infrastructure, and small loans to small agricultural enterprises. Funds can also be directed to the demining and psychological and social support of the population.

The US warns Ukraine that Washington does not have "endless resources" to support Kyiv
Reuters indicates that support for military aid to Ukraine among Americans fell to 58% (from 73% in April 2022). The publication itself conducted a survey of more than 4,000 Americans from February 6 to 13.

With the financial support of Lithuania, the power grids of the Mykolaiv region will be transferred to the European standard — instead of the voltage of 10/0.4 kV, the distribution networks of the region will have a voltage of 20/0.4 kV

The US will support Ukraine even after the presidential elections in 2024, said Derek Chollet, adviser to the US State Department
"Support to Ukraine will continue even after the US presidential elections scheduled for 2024, even if the candidate from the Republican Party wins these elections. Both the Democratic and Republican parties have no doubts about the need to provide aid to Ukraine," Chollet said.

During the year of the war, Ukrainian children spent an average of 920 hours in bomb shelters, — Save the Children organization
In areas of intense hostilities, some families with children spent eight hours a day in bomb shelters, unable to go outside due to shelling.
920 hours is approximately 38 days per year.

The Czechs showed how they make inflatable M270 MLRS and HIMARS, which are then used as decoys in Ukraine.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
Ukraine Invasion: Part 38
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 23/02/2023 10:36

Washington Post Telegram

A year later, China blames U.S. ‘hegemony’ — not Russia — for war in Ukraine

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/22/china-us-blame-ukraine-war/?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main)
Ahead of the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has launched a public diplomacy offensive to wrest control of the narrative about its role in the conflict, trying to clear itself of accusations that it has sided with Russia while accusing the U.S. of turning the conflict into a “proxy” war.

Beijing insists it’s neutral in the conflict, but those claims clash with its rhetorical and diplomatic support for Russia.

That was illustrated with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, arriving in Moscow in a show of solidarity with Russia — especially when contrasted with Biden’s unannounced trip to Kyiv.

Here is the latest from Ukraine.

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/22/russia-ukraine-war-putin-updates-biden-poland/)- Biden met with leaders of the Bucharest Nine, countries on NATO’s eastern flank. “You know better than anyone what’s at stake in this conflict, not just for Ukraine but for the freedom of democracies,” Biden told the assembled leaders.

  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned B9 leaders that Putin is “not preparing for peace” a year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • China-Russia relations had stood the test of an unstable international situation and remained “as stable as Mount Tai” — a Chinese idiom for rock-solid — Wang said Wednesday during his meeting with Putin.
  • Russia’s State Duma passed a law Wednesday suspending the country’s participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.
  • Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said Russia would disappear if it lost its war in Ukraine. “If Russia stops the special military operation without winning, there will be no Russia; it will be torn apart,” he wrote on Wednesday.
  • To mark the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine, the U.N. General Assembly will vote on a draft resolution that calls on Russia to leave Ukrainian territory and highlights the need for accountability for war crimes.
  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called on all members to vote for the U.N, peace resolution to end the war and preserve his country’s sovereignty.
  • In the coming year, Russia will put on combat duty the first launchers equipped with the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which have the potential to carry a large nuclear payload, President Vladimir Putin said Thursday in an address marking the Defender of the Fatherland Day.

Ukrainian authorities in Kherson announced additional security measures ahead of the war anniversary, citing a possible escalation. In a Facebook post Wednesday, the administration asked people to switch to remote work and announced patrols at gatherings.

notimagain · 23/02/2023 12:07

MissConductUS · 23/02/2023 09:41

I know that it feels that way, but from the Ukrainian point of view, they are using part of their forces to tie down a numerically larger Russian force and preventing them from making any significant gain. The rest of their forces are retraining, reequipping and integrating lots of new armor and other kit in preparation for a major new offensive. So it's time well spent for them.

And have a lovely time in Florida, whereabouts in Florida are you off to?

Orlando. It's a work-related event, unfortunately. But I will get some time by the pool today and tomorrow afternoon. Perhaps I'll post a picture. The resort is supposed to be quite posh.

Florida and "Spring break" 😱

..ah on second thoughts maybe, hopefully, you've managed to avoid....

Enjoy...

L1ttledrummergirl · 23/02/2023 12:17

A question for you more knowledgeable people. On another thread someone has posted a link to something called the Lavada centre in Russia and said it is the only form of credible information from Russia when I disagreed with them but hadn't read the link.

I like to know more about an organisation before I click into them as the truth but I haven't been able to find reference to them and their trustworthiness elsewhere. Have any of you heard of them, and are they likely to be credible?
If so, I will read with an open mind.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 23/02/2023 12:31

I have heard of them before in connection with polling Russian attitudes. The consensus is that they are the best independent sociological centre around in Russia.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levada_Center

The Russian govt called it a foreign operation since they don't like what it says :D

www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/la-vie-en-rose-why-kremlin-blacklisted-levada-center [centre for strategic and international studies]

"The Levada Center is one of three major public opinion polling organizations in Russia, and the only one that is truly independent of the Kremlin. Its reputation for accurate, independent sociological research has earned it wide trust among academics, businesses and policy-makers inside and outside of Russia."

There are problems in that it was designated a foreign agent with the necessity to say that up front, but it still tries to do good work apparently.

What's really interesting is that the other two pollster organisations (as of when this article was written) have close connections to the kremlin with the implication they are leaned on by Putin's people. By muzzling the Levada centre, the Kremlin itself is cutting itself off from independent information

This seems to be a general trend in Russia. The fact that Putin launched the invasion with apparently full faith it'd take 5 days max shows that the level of distorted and unrealistic information is very high indeed. Small snippets from the Telegram channels keep indicating Russia is moving further and further away from objective measurements of all sorts of indices. I do wonder how accurate or otherwise the economic reporting is, given this trend.

MissConductUS · 23/02/2023 13:29

notimagain · 23/02/2023 12:07

Florida and "Spring break" 😱

..ah on second thoughts maybe, hopefully, you've managed to avoid....

Enjoy...

Depending on the college, it's the first or second week in March in the US. And the resort really is quite posh, so I doubt they host a lot of uni students. The forecast is sunny with a high of 32C, so I've packed a swimsuit. 😁

Mb76 · 23/02/2023 13:45

L1ttledrummergirl · 23/02/2023 12:17

A question for you more knowledgeable people. On another thread someone has posted a link to something called the Lavada centre in Russia and said it is the only form of credible information from Russia when I disagreed with them but hadn't read the link.

I like to know more about an organisation before I click into them as the truth but I haven't been able to find reference to them and their trustworthiness elsewhere. Have any of you heard of them, and are they likely to be credible?
If so, I will read with an open mind.

They are credible. The link that was shared was from march 2022, so almost a year ago. I’d like to know if and how the attitudes of Russian people have changed in a year.

L1ttledrummergirl · 23/02/2023 14:04

Thank you for the reassurance, I'll go back and read it.

Greenshake · 23/02/2023 16:59

Anyone going to the Trafalgar Square vigil tonight? And thank you for new thread 🙂

cloudberry · 23/02/2023 17:26

Following so I don’t lose it. So good to see this is still going strong 😊

Surplus2requirements · 23/02/2023 17:27

cloudberry · 23/02/2023 17:26

Following so I don’t lose it. So good to see this is still going strong 😊

I'd rather it wasn't but I get your meaning

notimagain · 23/02/2023 17:34

Not sure if this has been posted earlier...just it case it hasn't, from London earlier today:

twitter.com/i/status/1628736577454108672

MagicFox · 23/02/2023 17:46

That's great @notimagain

OP posts:
Amispringy · 23/02/2023 18:02

Not sure if posted before but there's a fantastic Panorama on bbc. War Diaries. Wonderful documentary