Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

[MagicFox]

🇺🇦 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community 🇺🇦

I Can’t believe it’s been a year. I was so anxious in the days before, I remember sitting on the sofa discussing if it would actually happen, and kept waking up early to check the news, then finally woke up to the news that they had actually done it. It took me months to get my anxiety under control and today the feelings I had last year I can feel them again.

A year since what felt like a relatively safe Europe was broken overnight. I genuinely can’t believe it feels like it’s been ongoing for ages but also so fast at the same time.

my heart goes out to all those affected and have had a year of pure unnecessary suffering and heartbreak. I hope this thread isn’t still going in a years time 😔 thank you for all those who contribute, this is my go to source when trying to filter out the noise and alarmist headlines

Sky News:

"China says ceasefire is its 'top priority' - and sending weapons 'will not bring peace'
Speaking at the UN General Assembly, China's delegate has insisted his country's position on Ukraine has been "consistent and clear".
UN member states are currently debating a draft resolution urging Russia to leave Ukraine.
Deputy UN ambassador Dai Bing says the "only way to resolve the Ukraine crisis" is through dialogue - a hint at China's aims to position itself as a peace broker.
China's "top priority is to facilitate ceasefire and cessation of hostilities without delay", he says.
In comments apparently aimed at Russia, he says the "territorial integrity of all countries should be respected" and countries should "avoid attacking civilians and civilian infrastructure".
However, he says the "legitimate security concerns of all countries should be taken seriously" - a likely hint at China's support for Moscow.
And he also appears to hit out at the West's provision of weapons to Ukraine.
He says the "brutal facts offer an ample proof that sending weapons will not bring peace".
"Adding fuel to the fire will only exacerbate tensions," he says.
It's worth noting that both NATO and the US have suggested China could be planning to supply weapons to Russia.
On the subject of nuclear war, Dai Bing says that "all parties should strictly abide by nuclear conventions".
"Nuclear weapons cannot be used, nuclear war cannot be fought," he says."

Just on way back from the Trafalgar Square vigil and so glad I went. Ben Wallace, Helen Mirren and some wonderful Ukrainian performers. There was such a feeling of unity and optimism.

Anyone seen the breakdown of the UN vote yet? 6 countries voted No alongside Russia and curious who they were (assume the usual suspects)

Mali and Eritrea are the two voted against that had previously abstained

Let us not forget that China has one of the fastest growth's in military expenditure in the world - average 10% per annum over two years if reports are true.

It is hard at best and naively dangerous at worst to believe the Chinese word.

Wonderful that you could go - was it really busy? :)

It was packed! Very moving when the Ukranian National Anthem was sung

that's so good to hear. Good the support is still so massive.

❤❤❤🇺🇦

Ah lovely 😊 glad you could make it
i couldn’t go but I watched it live on YouTube 💙💛

There's some speculation on line that the attack on Mariupol may have been made by a Bayraktor TB2.

twitter.com/clashreport/status/1628702074203406336

Florida is lovely and I had a swim in the pool.

@Mb76 Jamala, Eka and Antytila were fabulous.

From the link "Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 UCAV with “FCKPTN01” call sign active over Ukraine."

Interesting call sign.😆

MissConductUS, pool in Florida sounds lovely. Glad you managed to get away for some me time.

I did not catch the Trafalgar Sq vigil and so cannot comment on the other 2 but Antylila are great!

I remember Antylila from this collab with Ed Sheeran. This music video which came out at the start of the invasion is just as haunting, if not more so, today.

@blueshoes have you heard their track ‘Lego’? Video has a well known guest star.

Ooo so want that call sign to be true.

Is that bad of me? 😬

Greenshake, nice 😁. No I did not but thanks for pointing that out.

Looking at the dates, the video was from happier times, even before he was elected. What a contrast. I wish the war to end.

China's peace plan says nothing: www.wsj.com/articles/china-urges-cessation-of-hostilities-peace-talks-to-end-ukraine-war-ae45829a

Basically, we're for peace, it's all the west's fault. They should sort it out with Russia. Nothing of substance.

I suspect it's not...I don't disagree with the sentiments but looking at the screen snapshot the track/data look very suspect

Also I'm pretty sure that "callsign" or very similar has been used before during the early days of the conflict when hackers have put phantom targets onto Flightradar....

Good, measured, policy brief from the Brussels School of Governance: "Nuclear Signalling in Russia’s War Against Ukraine"

https://prod-b4156475194d8706-vub.paddlecms.net/sites/default/files/2023-02/CSDS%20Policy%20brief23055_0.pdf

Re: China's population (up thread), it's due a hard landing as they have a 4:2:1 population model thanks to the one-child family policy on top of a shocking sex imbalance. Up to thirty million girls are "missing" compared to what you would expect from a normal demographic ratio, so that's thirty million young men struggling to find a bride in a society where marriage is still considered necessary to start a family.

On top of that, there is a rumour going about (especially after Covid-19 data problems), that authorities have been inflating the birthrate, partly to look good and partly to massage central Government contributions. The shit is hitting the fan now, as those missing children are not appearing in schools or nurseries. South China post have reported up to half may close this year, in a lot of the regional cities.

So yes, China is looking at a hard demographic landing and it's coming in sooner then anyone thought it would happen. The flip side is that they will still "only" have half a billion people left at the end of the century and Xi has a handy surplus of men now, if he wants to do something provocative such take Taiwan.

China, as a great power, isn't going anywhere, but it may be tempted to take some risky bets whilst they still have a demographic dividend.

India's been quiet so far. They are the one to watch in the future as they have not really asserted themselves on the political stage in the same way and they are now the largest populace in the world.

Hm, some interesting points there !@ABC.

I believe a lot of Chinese surplus males are finding brides from Thailand etc, but Chinese brides are preferred. Did see that one province is removing all birth controls completely.

It seems very strange how extreme the swings are. From unrestricted birth to strict controls (ok not quite as strict in the countryside but generally, and certainly in cities) then nearly unrestricted again.

Covid - no, no, doesn't exist. Then a ferocious lockdown. Now no controls at all.

THere seems no sense of moderation or proportion.

One thing that does strike me with some amusement is that the countries where the males are far higher status and millions of women are 'missing'... is that once the women gain control over their own reproductive status, they don't want many or any babies, as in China. Women's work such as child rearing, keeping home and looking after aged parents is bloody hard work and you are lesser in status than the man. Now women have to all that and work on top. Who would want children?!

One year on and here we all are.
I have to say that if you'd told me a year ago that this war would still be very much on going I wouldn't have believed you. I thought Ukraine would be violently crushed by the Russian oppressors in quick order.
Now I'm coming to the realisation that it could grind on for many more years with Putin's latest double speak and posturing showing no indication of wanting to cut his losses any time soon.

Late on 23 February, the UN General Assembly voted to call for Russia to withdraw its forces from Ukraine

141 states voted in favour, 7 against - Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Mali, Nicaragua, Russia, Syria. 32 abstained incl China, India, Pakistan.

All the usual suspects 🤷‍♀️