Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

[MagicFox]

🇺🇦 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community 🇺🇦

I thought most leopard and artillery training was being done in Poland? or have they shipped Leopards to UK ? obviously Challenger is being done in UK

You're correct, I was thinking of the Challengers. As it turns out, training on the Leopard is being done in Poland and Germany.

Leopard tanks like a Mercedes, says Ukrainian soldier training in Germany

Training on the Bradleys and Stryker APCs is also taking place in Germany.

Ukrainian battalion completes first combined-arms training in Germany

I read somewhere that the first 90 Strykers have arrived in Germany. For those who aren't familiar,

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stryker

www.nbcnews.com/investigations/two-ukrainian-pilots-are-us-training-assessment-attack-aircrafts-f-16s-rcna73426

That sounds like it might be much the same idea as the one a few weeks back from Uk Gov about teaching Ukrainian pilots to fly a generic NATO fighter that led to all the on then then off again rumours about supplying Typhoons...

There certainly used to be a massive difference between the west vs. the Soviets in the philosophy of cockpit design, instrumentation and switches....not sure if there's been any convergence in recent years, maybe that's reason for any assessment.

FWIW these days cockpit/flight deck display management is often ground school lesson one when converting between aircraft types in the civilian world, no doubt the issue will be really important in the mil world.

Only guessing here but from what I gather, no one really knows exactly how many Leopards are going to Ukraine. The promises made can't always be fulfilled as some of them turned out to be beyond repair or needing far more repair than thought. There's been resistance within some countries' governments, unexpectedly.

Beyond that, as far as I'm aware Leopard training is in mainland Europe and Challengers in the UK - but someone else may know better.

@MissConductUS not massively but I do like most of Miley Cyrus a lot ! Are you? :)

sorry, cross post there about the tanks

Ducks, I'm more of a folk-country fan, so my go-to musicians for that genre would be The Wailin' Jennys, Lucy Kaplansky, Kim Richie, and Mindy Smith (who does a fab cover of Jolene, by the way).

Apologies for the musical digression. To make it microscopically on topic, I can report that there are a lot of country music fans in the US Army.

It doesn't surprise me to know there's a lot of US Army country fans. It's great music to walk/march to.

The latest Russian military hardware

Do you think there's a tiny, jellied Putin inside each of those monstrosities?

I don't know what the one on the right is, but the one on the left is a 1940s naval gun (25mm?). They're really scraping the locker. It looks like something ISIS built.

Ahem.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalek

The scariest sink-plungers known to humanity...

someone on Twitter said it's a MT-LB APC; a 1950s Era Warsaw Pact vehicle.
And that's definitely a 50s/60s Era AA Cannon from a decommissioned destroyer

Britain announces it is sending 1500 sofas to Ukraine.

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-5-2023

ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, March 5. This report analyzes the ongoing Battle for Bakhmut and Russian prospects for further offensive efforts.

Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a limited tactical withdrawal in Bakhmut, although it is still too early to assess Ukrainian intentions concerning a complete withdrawal from the city.

The Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut remains strategically sound as it continues to consume Russian manpower and equipment as long as Ukrainian forces do not suffer excessive casualties.

The Russian military’s attritional campaign to capture Bakhmut has likely prompted Russian milbloggers to adopt more realistic expectations for further Russian operations in Ukraine.

The Russian offensive to capture Bakhmut will likely culminate whether Russian forces capture the city or not, and the Russian military will likely struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months.

Endemic personnel and equipment constraints will likely prevent Russian forces from launching another prolonged offensive operation like the Battle for Bakhmut in the coming months.

The Russian Armed Forces will continue to rely on irregular formations in further offensive operations in the coming months.

Russian forces would have the choice of two diverging lines of advance after capturing Bakhmut but would likely struggle to sustain offensive operations and make any significant gains.

It is not clear if Russian forces intend to resume offensives near Vuhledar, and it is highly unlikely that Russian forces would advance far enough in this direction to support operations elsewhere in any case.

The likely imminent culmination of the Russian offensive around Bakhmut, the already culminated Russian offensive around Vuhledar, and the stalling Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast are likely setting robust conditions for Ukrainian counteroffensive operations

[ from the expansions:
...Russian forces will likely lose the initiative in Ukraine within the coming months due to the likely culmination of their three main offensive efforts...
...The culmination of Russia’s current three offensive efforts will likely allow Ukrainian forces to launch counteroffensives anywhere along the frontline that they deem best suited for such operations. The high manpower and equipment costs that the Russian military has spent in failed offensive operations in Luhansk and western Donetsk oblasts and on the operationally insignificant city of Bakhmut will benefit these likely upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensives.]

Key inflections in ongoing military operations on March 5:

The Ukrainian Air Force Command and Ukrainian news outlet Defense Express reported that Russian forces began using new UPAB-1500V aerial bombs against Ukrainian targets.[33]

Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks northwest and south of Kreminna.[34]

Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks near Avdiivka and on the western outskirts of Donetsk City.[35] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces advanced to Pervomaiske, 8km northwest of Donetsk City.[36]

The Ukrainian General Staff continued to report that Russian forces are attempting to create conditions for the transition to an offensive in some areas of the Zaporizhia and Kherson directions.[37] ISW has not observed indicators that Russian forces are preparing to launch sustained offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast or any offensive activity in Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian Deputy Prosecutor General Viktoriya Litvinova reported that Russia deported about 16,000 children of whom 307 were able to return to Ukraine.[38] The Ukrainian Presidential Commissioner for Human Rights Daria Herasimchuk reported that Russian officials use coercive tactics to separate Ukrainian children from their parents in order to deport them.[39]

Ukrainian First Lady Olena Zelenska reported that Ukrainian prosecutors are investigating 171 cases of sexual assault committed by Russian Forces against Ukrainian citizens.[40]

and the Uk int update

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️ General Staff: Russians place (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russians-place-air-defense-systems-in-residential-quarters-of-nova-kakhovka-kherson-oblast) air defense systems in residential quarters of Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast.

Nova Kakhovka is 50 kilometers northeast of Kherson, the region's capital city. It stands on the east bank of Dnipro River, right across from the Ukrainian-held territories on the west bank.

⚡️ Ukrainian authorities: Russia’s proxies in occupied regions put teenagers (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/authorities-russias-proxies-in-occupied-regions-put-teenagers-on-military-register) on military register.
Russia's proxies in the occupied regions of Luhansk Oblast reportedly start a draft register of boys born in 2006, apparently in preparation for their mobilization in the future.

⚡️ TVN 24: Ambulances intended for Ukraine set on fire (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/tvn-24-ambulances-intended-for-ukraine-set-on-fire-in-poland) in Poland.
A 35-year-old suspect has been arrested. Both ambulances were supposed to depart to Ukraine on March 4 within a humanitarian convoy organized by the Moc Przyszłości Foundation.

⚡️Turkish foreign minister (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/turkish-foreign-minister-ankara-working-hard-to-extend-black-sea-grain-deal): Ankara working ‘hard’ to extend Black Sea grain deal.

⚡️Budanov: Russia (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/budanov-russia-likely-to-run-out-of-military-tools-by-end-of-spring) likely to run out of ‘military tools’ by end of spring.

⚡️Energy minister: Negotiations (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/energy-minister-negotiations-on-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-reach-dead-end) on Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant reach ‘dead end.’
Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said on March 5 that negotiations to bring the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant back under Ukrainian control reached a “dead end,” and situation at the plant is “significantly deteriorating.”

⚡️Air Force: Modern fighter jets needed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/air-force-modern-fighter-jets-needed-to-counter-new-russian-gliding-bomb) to counter new Russian gliding bomb.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat confirmed on March 6 that Russia has used new 1.5-ton UPAB-1500B gliding bombs for the first time, designed to hit highly-protected objects at a range of up to 40 kilometers, against Ukraine.
Speaking on live television, Ihnat emphasized that it was crucial that Ukraine receives the modern fighting jets, such as F-16s, to “counter this threat, to protect our cities and villages.”

General Staff: Russian forces conduct (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russian-forces-conduct-offensives-in-5-directions) offensives in 5 directions.

⚡️Scholz: West ready (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/scholz-west-ready-to-give-ukraine-security-guarantees-after-war-is-over) to give Ukraine security guarantees after war is over.

⚡️Mayor: 'Hundreds' of Russian soldiers may have been killed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/mayor-two-areas-with-hundred-russian-soldiers-allegedly-destroyed-in-occupied-melitopol) in Ukrainian strike on occupied Melitopol.
Exiled Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov said in an interview on TV on March 5 that two powerful explosions were heard in the northern part of the occupied city of Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, possibly killing hundreds of Russian soldiers stationed in the city.

⚡️Belarusian security services conduct searches (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/belarusian-security-services-conduct-searches-in-connection-with-partisan-attack-on-russian-aircraft) in connection with partisan attack on Russian aircraft.

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine’s military repels (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraines-military-repels-over-95-russian-attacks-in-5-areas) over 95 Russian attacks in 5 areas.

⚡️Air Force: 13 out of 15 Russian drones downed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/official-13-out-of-15-drones-downed-by-ukrainian-air-defense) by Ukraine overnight.

Washington Post Telegram

Here is the latest in Ukraine:

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/05/russia-ukraine-war-news-bakhmut/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)- A grueling seven-month battle for the front-line city of Bakhmut is coming down to street-by-street fighting and skirmishes on its outskirts, where Ukrainian forces are digging narrow trenches into the muddy ground to fortify their positions.

• Russian forces appear to have conducted a “turning movement” in parts of the city, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War think tank said — a military maneuver intended to dislodge Ukrainian troops from their defensive positions — but have not yet forced their withdrawal or encircled the city.

• The head of Russia’s Wagner Group said that if its forces were to retreat from Bakhmut, “the entire front will collapse.” Yevgeniy Prigozhin made the comment in a video that circulated over the weekend, in which he also complained of an ammunition shortage, according to media outlet Ukrainska Pravda.

• Ukrainian troops are “continuing to inflict high casualties” against Russia’s military and mercenary forces in Bakhmut, according to the Institute for the Study of War, even as they may be conducting a “limited fighting withdrawal” from the area. Ukrainian officials say Russian forces have not seized full control of the city.

• Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas’s center-right party appears to be on track for a resounding election victory, according to the early results of Sunday’s poll. Kallas has been a vocal backer of Kyiv, and the vote was considered a test of the Baltic nation’s strong military support for Ukraine.

• Russia launched four missile strikes and 23 airstrikes on Sunday, according to Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces.

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned Beijing there would be consequences if China supplies lethal military aid to Russia.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Russia is preparing intergovernmental agreements on the visa-free regime with 11 countries, — Evgeny Ivanov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
"Drafts of intergovernmental agreements on visa-free regime for citizens of Russia with several states, namely: Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Bahamas, Barbados, Haiti, Zambia, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago, are at different stages of development," Ivanov said.

The organizers of the European Gas Conference, which will be held in Vienna at the end of March 2023, refused all Russian organizations accreditation for the event.

It is impossible to achieve success in a ground operation without reliable air cover, without reliable means of air defense, — the spokesman of the Air Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Yuriy Ignat

We are working hard on the unimpeded implementation and further continuation of the Black Sea Grain Agreement, — Head of the Foreign Ministry of Türkiye, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu [not that it's working well; the Russians are holding up all the Ukrainian grain ships, sometimes by weeks]

Russia is ready to participate in the "grain agreement" by extending it, — the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

Currently, 4,000 to 4,500 people are still in the "Bakhmut fortress." According to Deputy Mayor Oleksandr Marchenko, most who do not leave fear that they have nothing to do and nowhere to go.

Russian ecocide against Ukraine — more than $54 billion in damages have been caused

A Russian container ship with military cargo from Syria, which is under US sanctions, entered the Black Sea through the Bosphorus
Some mass media write that the ship "Sparta IV" was loaded in Syria and was accompanied by ships of the Russian Navy. It passed through the Bosphorus in the dark. It will possibly unload in Novorossiysk."

❗️The defense forces have the opportunity to deliver ammunition, food, and medicines to Bakhmut, as well as take away the wounded, said the spokesman of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces Cherevaty.

A fire broke out at the Moscow Coke and Gas Plant. The area of the fire is 200 square meters.

South Korea has significantly increased its arms exports to other countries amid global support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, — The New York Times
According to the NYT, in 2022, arms exports from South Korea increased by 140% and reached a record 17.3 billion dollars. At the same time, Seoul, as before, refuses to provide military aid to Ukraine and carefully monitors that Korean weapons do not reach the front through third countries.

The EU does not yet see "any evidence" that would indicate that China is considering the possibility of supplying Russia with weapons for the war in Ukraine, — President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.

Mariupol theatre now

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇵🇱🇩🇪Bloomberg: Rising tensions between Poland and Germany could undermine joint Western efforts to provide military aid to Ukraine. The two countries have long been at odds over the war.
Disputes between Warsaw and Berlin over missiles, tanks, and spare parts have reached a new level. The most recent accusations by the Poles against Germany have centered on the fact that it has delayed the delivery of tanks to Ukraine.

🇦🇲🇦🇿 In Nagorno-Karabakh, there was a small clash between the Armenian and Azerbaijani sides.

The intelligence forces of the KRAKEN special forces destroyed an autonomous surveillance tower in Bryansk region, Russia, using a kamikaze drone.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announces a possible conflict in the top military leadership of the Russian Federation due to the significant losses of the occupiers and the lack of achievements at the front.
In particular, Shoigu demands that General Muradov, who was promoted by Putin for his successes in the Vuhledar area, earn his rank and take Vuhledar at any cost.

In the Estonian parliamentary elections, the Reform Party of Prime Minister Kaja Kallas won, receiving 31.2% of the vote, or 37 seats. This is three times more than in the previous Riigikogu.

A volunteer, soldier, combat medic of the 93rd Brigade, Yana ("Yara") Rychlitska, died near Bakhmut during the evacuation of the wounded. Her ambulance was shelled.

Occupiers shelled the village of Budarky in Kharkiv region. A shell hit a car with a couple in it. The man and woman died on the spot.

This is from Kyiv Independent but it's significant so I've put it in a new post. There have been infrequent but strong rumours that Ukrainian forces are also underprepared, underresourced and underrested. This is confirmation.

There might not be any alternative to this situation; the army has expanded massively and kit is hard to find, and there was little time for good training.

Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut: ‘Our troops are not being protected’ (kyivindependent.com/national/ukrainian-soldiers-in-bakhmut-our-troops-are-not-being-protected)

Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut: ‘Our troops are not being protected’ (kyivindependent.com/national/ukrainian-soldiers-in-bakhmut-our-troops-are-not-being-protected)
Russia’s relentless assault on Bakhmut is sacrificing waves and waves of unprepared men being sent to their deaths. But multiple defenders of this embattled city in Donetsk Oblast feel that they are in a similar boat, according to interviews with more than a dozen soldiers currently fighting in or around Bakhmut.

During their brief visits to the nearby town of Kostiantynivka, Ukrainian infantrymen told the Kyiv Independent of unprepared, poorly-trained battalions being thrown into the front line meat grinder to survive as best they could with little support from armored vehicles, mortars, artillery, drones and tactical information.

also, the losses have just been released.

Though I don't think they'll be needed. Ukrainians seem to have balls of steel.

"Pah, mere daleks..."

Ducks, thanks for the takeaways.

That picture of Mariupol Theatre now 😓It is a ruined mausoleum.

Found a photo of what it looks like from the outside. Adorned with images portraits of Pushkin, Tolstoy, Gogol and Taras Shevchenko to cover up Russia's war crimes:

If you use Twitter be careful there is a video of a Ukrainian soldier POW being shot by the Russians for saying Slava Ukraini. It's everywhere without filters and very distressing to see. May he rest in peace

That’s despicable and exactly why I avoid Twitter. Many thanks to those of you that brave it and filter through this stuff.

Why has Zelensky posted ‘Glory to the hero. Glory to the heroes’? Is he talking about anyone in particular with the singular hero?

It's probably in relation to the incident minsmum posted below, awful