Ukraine Invasion: Part 38

[MagicFox]

🇺🇦 38th thread for information sharing, solidarity and community 🇺🇦

Tim White who's a good correspondent who's covered the war from the early days thinks that Prigozhin's fighting for his political and perhaps actual life.

As a teenager I was very fond of historical fiction about medieval & Tudor times.

I used to wonder whether the better strategy, if you were't rich, was to try to rise the greasy pole at court – or to keep your head down lest it be chopped off.

Tudor courts seemed to have a particularly high turnover.

Current events seem seem strangely familiar.

I always thought the best way to survive was to be a skilled craftsman!

You have just unlocked one of favourite points of debate....

I reckon that, if you want some power but not too much head chopping risk and don't mind being lowly nobility, aiming to rise to a one of the random northern titles that no one has heard of is a good bet. You get to spend your time defending against the Scots, don't have to go to court often or risk your head but the King needs you so your pretty secure.

If you aim to negotiate the rise through the ranks of the royal court there's a good chance you or someone in your family will be executed. You could be like some of the men who rise through their boring administrative skills and willingness to do what you're told rather than direct policy but you'll only end up with a barony not an earldom.

Henry VIII's court between 1536 and 1547 has an insanely high death rate but he didn't hide behind accidents and poisoning!

Building up wealth through trade and then loaning money/ships to the King is a pretty good strategy too and probably close to certain present day mercenaries

Right up to the point the King decides he doesn't want to pay you back...

Ah well you can't expect the King to pay you back 😆but maybe he'll give you a monastery or two...

This is probably the quid pro quo that Putin has with his oligarchs. Wonder how much they have had to contribute to the war effort to stay alive.

@terrywynne or announce a progrom

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Key Takeaways

Russian forces appear to have secured a sufficient positional advantage to conduct a turning action against certain parts of Bakhmut but have not yet forced Ukrainian forces to withdraw and will not likely be able to encircle the city soon.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with Eastern Military District Commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov in western Donetsk Oblast, likely to assess the extent of Russian losses around Vuhledar and the possibility of a further offensive in this direction.

The Chinese government is reportedly angry with the Kremlin over the publicization of arms sales discussions.

Russian State Duma Defense Committee Head Andrey Kartapalov encouraged Russian companies to purchase their own air defense systems to defend against drones.

The Wagner Group reportedly opened at least three new recruitment centers at Russian sports clubs between March 2-4, possibly to augment Wagner’s recruitment base after losing access to prisoner recruits.

Russian forces conducted offensive actions along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued efforts to encircle Bakhmut and conduct ground attacks along the Donetsk Oblast front line.

Ukrainian sources continue to report that Russian forces are trying to set conditions for offensive operations in southern Ukraine.

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues apparent efforts to increase Chechen influence within Russia through promoting Chechnya’s Special Forces (SPETSNAZ) and youth policy efforts.

Russian occupation administrations are strengthening law enforcement measures in occupied territories.

Note:
Russian advances in Bakhmut have been slow and gradual and do not suggest that Russian forces will be able to encircle Bakhmut soon, much less that they will be able to take the city by frontal assaults. The Russians have, rather, managed to push close enough to critical ground lines of communication from the northeast to threaten Ukrainian withdrawal routes in a classical envelopment maneuver. The purpose of a turning movement is to force the enemy to abandon prepared defensive positions and is different from the aim of an encirclement, which is to trap and destroy enemy forces. The Russians may have intended to encircle Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut, but the Ukrainian command has signaled that it will likely withdraw rather than risk an encirclement. ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces are far more likely to withdraw than to become encircled and that the Ukrainians might still be able to hold their positions in Bakhmut if they choose to try. Russian forces have been suffering high casualties in these advances, and Ukrainian commanders’ assessments of the likelihood that they can force Russian attacks to culminate near or behind their current positions balanced against the risk of losing access to essential withdrawal routes will likely guide the Ukrainian decision to stay or pull back.

... shovels and entrenching tools ....

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Ukraine military spokesman denies troops withdrawal (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-military-spokesman-denies-troops-withdrawal-from-bakhmut) from Bakhmut.
Russian forces have not taken the city of Bakhmut, according to Serhiy Cherevatyi, a spokesman for the eastern grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Cherevaty told CNN that fighting is ongoing on the outskirts of the beleaguered Ukrainian city.

Nearly 10,000 Russians have contacted surrender hotline in 6 months (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/nearly-10-000-russian-soldiers-surrender-via-i-want-to-live-hotline-since-its-creation)
Correction: A previous version of this article incorrectly said that nearly 10,000 Russian soldiers had surrendered, while in fact, it was reported that nearly 10,000 Russians had contacted the hotline, exploring the possibility of surrender

⚡️Ambassador: UK to provide twice the promised Challenger 2 tanks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ambassador-uk-to-provide-twice-the-promised-challenger-2-tanks-to-ukraine) to Ukraine.
The UK will give 28 Challenger 2 main battle tanks instead of the earlier promised 14, Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.K. Vadym Prystaiko told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty in an interview.
Prystaiko said that the U.K. is talking to Ukraine, not in terms of what specific platforms it needs, but what battlefield challenges it intends to solve.

⚡️Zaporizhzhia attack death toll rises to 13, victims include 8-month-old girl
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zaporizhzhia-death-toll-rises-to-11-victims-include-8-month-old-girl-and-her-family)and her family.

Ukrainian State-Owned Enterprises Weekly – Issue 77 (kyivindependent.com/business/ukrainian-state-owned-enterprises-weekly-issue-77)
Court sets bail for former Naftogaz CEO Andriy Kobolyev, Ukrzaliznytsia CEO Oleksandr Kamyshin announces his resignation, court sentences Yevheniy Dykhne, former acting CEO of Boryspil airport, to five years in prison for abuse of power

⚡️Politico: EU seeks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/politico-eu-seeks-non-member-states-to-take-part-in-joint-military-procurement-scheme-for-ukraine) non-member states to take part in joint military procurement scheme for Ukraine.
European Union member states are reportedly looking for other countries outside the bloc to provide ammunition to Ukraine, according to an undisclosed EU top official and two diplomats quoted by Politico on March 4.

⚡️Ukraine to use $460 million (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-to-use-460-million-worth-of-confiscated-russian-assets-for-reconstruction) worth of confiscated Russian assets for reconstruction.
The government will use the assets seized from two Russian banks, MR Bank and Prominvestbank, to rebuild the country, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said during a conference on March 4.

⚡️Defense Express: Russia uses new 1.5-ton gliding (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/defense-express-russia-uses-new-1-5-ton-gliding-bombs-on-ukraine-for-first-time) bombs on Ukraine for first time.
Russia has reportedly used new 1.5-ton UPAB-1500B gliding bombs designed to hit highly protected objects at up to 40 kilometers against Ukraine, according to Ukrainian military-focused media outlet Defense Express, citing its own unnamed sources.
The guided bomb, first unveiled at a Russian arms expo in 2019, has since undergone full testing, been delivered to the Russian air force, and received its first orders for export, the article said.

⚡️ Zelenska: 171 cases of sexual violence by Russian troops recorded (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelenska-171-cases-of-sexual-violence-by-russian-troops-recorded-in-ukraine) in Ukraine.
[it can be confidently asserted that the real figures are magnitudes higher]

⚡️ General Staff: Ukraine’s military repels (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraines-military-repels-over-130-russian-attacks) over 130 Russian attacks.
Ukraine's Air Force also carried out 18 strikes on temporary Russian bases and hit a Russian air defense system, an ammunition depot, and a bridge, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported on March 4.

⚡️ CNN: Ukrainian pilots in US for evaluative F-16 training (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cnn-ukrainian-pilots-in-us-for-evaluative-f-16-training).
Two Ukrainian pilots arrive at Tucson, Arizona military base to undergo F-16 “familiarization” training, reports CNN. The purpose of the training is to see how much time they would need to learn to fly various aircraft, including F-16.
However, a U.S. official told CNN there were no new updates on supplying Ukraine with F-16s and no immediate plans to increase the number of Ukrainian pilots in the U.S.

⚡️ Deputy Defense Minister: Russia’s tactics becoming (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/deputy-defense-minister-russias-tactics-becoming-more-and-more-terroristic) more and more ‘terroristic.’

Personnel losses rising again and more artillery losses.

it was only Christmas ago that the Ukrainian figures for Russian losses hit 100,000. now it's 150k.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The Association of National Olympic Committees of Africa calls for allowing Russians and Belarusians to participate in the 2024 Olympics in Paris, — AFP

🇺🇦🇨🇦 Ukraine and Canada will develop cooperation in the field of security and defense, — Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi at a meeting with his Canadian colleague Wayne Eyre

The Military Foundation released a video of the arrival in Germany of 90 Stryker combat vehicles, which the United States handed over to Ukraine.

🇬🇧 Great Britain will provide Ukraine with twice as many Challenger 2 tanks as previously agreed, Vadym Prystaiko reports
We will remind, earlier it was reported about the delivery of 14 tanks of this model. [, ah, finally figures mentioned. So 28 now]

Iran has guaranteed its readiness to cooperate with the IAEA, — Reuters

❗️Ukraine signed an agreement on the creation of the International Center for the Investigation of Russian Aggression in The Hague

⚡️Ukrzaliznytsia (National Railway of Ukraine) plans to build several European routes to the border with Poland, – Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita
By the end of this year, the construction of the first Eurotrack from Lviv to the border in Rava-Ruska (red on the map) should be completed, the publication reports. These innovations will allow the running of direct Warsaw-Lviv trains without transfers and chassis changes.

At Zaporizhzhia NPP, there is now a catastrophic lack of qualified workers who will be able to ensure the life of the NPP, — General Staff
The Russian occupiers employ people without appropriate education and experience at the NPP, which can lead to unpredictable consequences.

Negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the European Union can begin this year, and the creation of a special tribunal for Putin is only a matter of time, said the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola.

Despite all the circumstances, Ukrainian helicopter brigades are not only still functioning but are also an inspiring component of the military efforts of Ukrainians, – wrote The New York Times journalists after visiting the 18th Separate Army Aviation Brigade named after Ihor Sikorsky

The Armed Forces of Ukraine counterattacked near Bakhmut – an American columnist published a map of the battles
Commenting on the situation near Kreminna, Luhansk region, the journalist notes that Russian troops shelled the southwestern corner four times, which means the Ukrainian military maintains control over the bridgehead

Reposting the losses as this is easier to read imo

Live: Ukraine Telegram

New Czech President Petr Pavel intends to visit all neighboring countries in his first hundred days in office. He will visit Kyiv in April, after a trip to the headquarters of the European Union and NATO.

Ukraine ends the heating season with a capacity surplus - Energy Minister
Despite the destruction, Ukrainian power engineers managed to keep the energy system intact, "the collapse the enemy was hoping for did not happen"

Interview with ▶️Interview with Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine

Prigozhin today is once again seen explaining how invaluable Wagner is for Russia, and how retreating from Bakhmut will lead to the collapse of the whole Russian front.
Also appears to be hinting at the fact that his mercenaries might find it rather unpleasant if they suspect that Russian authorities set them up by not providing ammo and reinforcements.
Besides. Why is he talking about retreating from Bakhmut at all, if just yesterday he was claiming to have “nearly surrounded” it?

In one day, Ukrainians have donated one million hryvnias to buy three bionic prostheses for Andriy, a soldier who lost his leg and both arms during the war. The money was the last installment of a $75,000 fundraising effort.

Washington Post Telegram

Analysis: An awkward tension lies beneath the West’s support for Ukraine
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/27/tension-ukraine-public-private-support-west/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)

Here is the latest in Ukraine:

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/04/russia-ukraine-war-news/?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wp_main)

• Nearly 4,000 residents are believed to be living in shelters in Bakhmut without enough electricity or water, the city’s deputy mayor, Oleksandr Marchenko, told the BBC on Saturday.

• Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut are running short on key supplies such as ammunition, The Post reported, while Britain’s Defense Ministry said Saturday that Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut “is under increasingly severe pressure” in and around the embattled city.

• The United States signed an agreement designed to expand information-sharing regarding alleged Russian war crimes, involving Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Slovakia and Romania, Garland said Friday.

• President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reiterated support for Ukraine and their determination to “impose costs” on Russia, the White House said after their meeting Friday.

— A grueling seven-month battle for the front-line city of Bakhmut is coming down to street-by-street fighting and skirmishes on rural roads and settlements on its outskirts, where Ukrainian forces are digging narrow trenches to fortify their positions. Ukrainian officials say Russian forces have not yet seized full control of the city.

— Kyiv is planning to use confiscated Russian assets to help fund the country’s rebuilding, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.

—Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with deployed troops in a rare visit to the front lines in eastern Ukraine, according to statements and videos posted on Telegram by the Russian Defense Ministry.

Russian propagandists said to buy Twitter blue-check verifications
(www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/02/22/russian-propagandists-said-buy-twitter-blue-check-verifications/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)Accounts pushing Kremlin propaganda are using Twitter’s new paid verification system to appear more prominently on the global platform, another sign that Elon Musk’s takeover is accelerating the spread of politically charged misinformation, a nonprofit research group has found.
The accounts claim to be based outside of Russia, so they can pay for verification without running afoul of U.S. sanctions. But they pass along articles from state-run media, statements by Russian officials, and lies about Ukraine from Kremlin allies, according to the research group Reset, which shared its findings with The Washington Post.
One of the accounts describes itself in English as “No woke. No BLM. No gender pronouns … Just Anti-Imperialism.” Purporting to be based in San Francisco, its profile picture shows a blond woman wearing a fur hat with a hammer and sickle badge.

Does anyone else get the feeling there are more subtleties going on behind the scenes than we are picking up. It is of course how it should be. I sense in particular:

1. The gathering momentum of a PR strategy in the arena of war crimes.
2. The training of Ukranian soldiers in the UK and USA for a specific purpose - not just for regular capabilities, but specific offensive actions over the course of 2023. There is a strategy to the training which regulars do not normally get.
3. Trials of new equipment and tactics on the battlefield which will come to light after the war. The Kerch bridge still has some unanswered questions. I believe it was simultaneously hit from below and at road level - certainly UMVs I think.
4. Growing recognition of reconstruction 'opportunities' and how the economic benefits of that may be shared.

We seem to be moving to a different place. There are some similarities in the first Gulf War and the pathway that had to be taken between August 1990 and early 1991.

There is also an interest tweet here, if I have picked it up correctly. If not the text for the link is below.

Here

mobile.twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1631991835764707334

That comparison photo of Kadyrov supposedly showing the effects of poisoning:

The training of the UAF is being driven by the new equipment they are getting. The training in the US is for the Patriot air defense system, and in Germany, they are training on the operation of the Bradley IFV. Tank and artillery training is being done mainly in the UK. As they receive more capabilities, operating them effectively in concert with each other becomes more complex, which is why they are also getting training in combined arms tactics.

I'm not sure I understand your Gulf War reference. Can you elaborate?

Day 374, March 4th. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 04 March 2023

⚡️Battlefield overview

⚡️Russian resistance in Bryansk & FSB’s lie
Feygin had an interview with the Russian volunteer who fights on the side of Ukraine and who crossed into the Bryansk region, declaring that they will fight the Kremlin’s criminal regime that is destroying the Russian people’s prospects.
FSB has tried to spread disinformation about Russian resistance fighters to portray them as “terrorists”, claiming that they wounded two people, then correcting their story and saying that it was just one man, a school bus driver. The “bus driver” story is designed for the American audience. While a yellow school bus is emblematic in the US, it isn’t actually used in Russia to collect and transport school students.
Arestovych thinks that the war started by the Russian regime will spread to Russia. More Russian partisans may start active resistance against the Kremlin’s regime and may use more drones in Russian territory. Many people are discontent with the Kremlin’s regime and people wronged by them, including Russians, Tatars, Chechens, Dagestani, etc. The Kremlin knows about the potential for separatist movements and riots in Russia and, therefore, Putin and Medvedev are complaining about separatism and division of Russia among Muscovites, Siberians, etc.

⚡️Bakhmut
Russia keeps trying to encircle Bakhmut from the North and South, with the situation remaining very difficult with Ukrainian troops defending against more numerous Russian forces. Russian sources also report losing ground south of Bakhmut to the Ukrainian troops.
While Russian propaganda inflates the significance of Bakhmut and there is political & media importance to Bakhmut, all decisions regarding the defence or retreat from Bakhmut are made by the Ukrainian General Staff and military commands.
Even if Ukraine decides to leave Bakhmut, the Ukrainian troops will retreat to the next defensive line and will retake the town as it has liberated Lyman and Kherson before.

⚡️Mariinka & Avdiivka
Russians attempted to advance in Mariinka, with the town being completely destroyed by Russian artillery.

⚡️Vuhledar & Orehiv
Tactical battlers near Vuhledar. Minor battles near Orehiv. After already losing 150 tanks and APCs, Russians seem to be planning another attack on Vuhledar.

⚡️Kreminna
Russians are attempting to advance near Kreminna, with mixed results, no major gains, and high Russian human cost.

⚡️Kherson
Artillery duels continue in Kherson.

⚡️Crimea
Explosions were reported near several Russian military air bases in Crimea, potentially from drone attacks.

⚡️Zaporizhzhja
The Russian missile strike on a residential building in Zaporizhzhja left 11 dead, including one child, and more were wounded. Russia is murdering Ukrainian civilians, families in their homes, and children sleeping in their beds. Isn’t that the definition of terrorism?
This strikingly contrasts with Ukraine which is just defending itself and attacks Russian military units, not civilians or Russian cities.

⚡️Mobilization & fate of Russian soldiers
More videos from the Russian mobilized and their families are surfacing – mobilized and their wives complain about being sent to the frontline without training, equipment, ammunition, and artillery support. While Ukrainians are volunteering to fight and defend their land and to prevent another massacre like Bucha’s, with only the elite units used to assault Russian positions, the Russian mobilized are being thrown as cannon fodder to assault the Ukrainian defences.

⚡️Argentina, China & the Big Picture
Argentina has stated that it’s willing to renegotiate with the UK over the Falkland/Mal Islands, which may be an attempt to destabilize the West.
The US has sanctioned 28 Chinese companies over sanction violations and trade with Iran. This is a sign to everyone to avoid violating sanctions, including by trading with Russia. The collective West is showing China that there will be a harsh response and grave consequences for any country that aids Russia.
At the same time, the Chinese drone company, DJI, has halted its contracts to export drones to Russia. [The Economist reports China being furious at the Russian Government for not keeping the potential military cooperation secret, especially when China’s economy is dependent on trade with the US and the EU.]

⚡️Russian diplomatic circus
When giving a speech at a press conference in India, the audience laughed at Lavrov’s declarations of “Ukraine has attacked Russia”. Lavrov managed to keep poker face thanks to his long experience in this position.

⚡️Russian oil & gas
Russian oil and gas extraction fell by half and profit from the export fell by 46% in February. In June, the Russian government may not only lose its remaining army to the Ukrainian counteroffensive but also be unable to pay pensions and salaries to the Russian public workers.

⚡️Sanctions
The US and the collective West have called on Turkey and the UAE to end trade with Russia. Moreover, the American Government has warned about the criminal responsibility for any company that intentionally does business with Russia, even though a third party.
The Russian oligarchs who directly fund Kremlin’s regime are facing confiscation of property (luxury villas) in France. At the same time, Swiss bankers trying to hide Putin’s financial assets are facing criminal charges.
The EU’s Ursula von der Leyen has stated that there will be a special tribunal for Russian war criminals. The West has taken a strategic decision, aiming to hold the Russian regime and Russian regime collaborators accountable for their crimes.

⚡️Putin’s response to sanctions
In response to Western sanctions and the struggling Russian economy, Putin has signed a law allowing the confiscation and nationalization of Russian businesses that cannot fulfil their contractual obligations to the Russian military.
The association with Putin brings only misery to those who do it. The Russian oligarchs, elite, and populace should ask themselves why they chose to continue to suffer because of one man.

⚡️Tanks for Ukraine
The German Rheinmetall is planning the construction of a factory and production of up to 400 tanks a year German tanks in Ukraine. While this provoked another hysteric outburst from Medvedev, who threatened the German company with an Kalibr missiles, it’s entirely possible that by the time of construction Ukraine may not only have an air defence to protect the military-industrial complex but may become part of NATO.
Rheinmetall is also discussing the buyback of Leopard 1 from Switzerland to upgrade them and send them to Ukraine.
At the same time, the UK will send more Challenger tanks and other APCs than previously discussed.

⚡️The Western values
Scholz has met Biden in Washington DC, praising Germany’s help to Ukraine. While China may quietly try to negotiate with Germany and Belarus, both countries’ future development and civilizational prospects are aligned with the collective West.

Next stream is on Monday, 6th of March.

@Zuffe there are bound to be enormous subtleties going on ... we see only the surface ripples and the events on the ground.

Over the months there have been a number of comments about further investment. Blackrock will be doing a lot, but also other companies.

I'm not sure there is a strategy over war crimes accountability (you meant that?) so much as developing events to back up the decision that the Kremlin leadership should be held to account.

In truth, and this is uncomfortable, I think that despite absolutely heroic efforts to clean up the country from corruption from high to low, some corruption will inevitably happen, though it will also be challenged sharply.

No doubt at all that a lot of military people all over the world are observing weopons performance in Ukraine - and also, just what the possibilities of adapting various weopons in the field are. Ukrainians have become famed for their resourcefulness.

They are also beginning to test their own home-manufactured longer distance missiles now, and they said that the full testing will happen during the spring offensive.

I guess with the spring offensive, they'll have to balance the flow of Western arms into Ukraine with the muddy season. ALso, if China is sending lethal aid to Russia via Belorus after the new agreements as seems likely, then they will have to take that into account in their timing.

In a total and completely inappropriate post, I'm recommending everyone watch this

ALso, if China is sending lethal aid to Russia via Belorus after the new agreements as seems likely, then they will have to take that into account in their timing.

I read yesterday that this intelligence came to the US from Russian sources...

Ducks, are you a country music fan? So many singers have covered Jolene. It's nice to hear a different twist on it.

And in the camel's nose under the tent department,

Two Ukrainian pilots are in the U.S. for training assessment on attack aircraft, including F-16s - Their arrival marks the first time Ukrainian pilots have traveled to the U.S. to have their skills evaluated by American military trainers.

They're going to try them on F-16 simulators to see how steep the learning curve would be. I suspect they'll get a check ride while there in the second seat.

Tank and artillery training is being done mainly in the UK

I thought most leopard and artillery training was being done in Poland? or have they shipped Leopards to UK ? obviously Challenger is being done in UK but even with 28 challengers, vast bulk of the tanks are Leopards aren't they?
Or has this changed?

The back drop to all of this is that the UK will upgrade more to Challenger 3's and that can only be a good thing, lets hope the rumours R. Sunak is about to announce an increase in defence spending is true.