ISW Key Takeaways
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko likely deflected Russian President Vladimir Putinβs efforts to coerce Belarus into Russian-Belarusian integration concessions on December 19.
Russian forces targeted Kyiv with Shahed-131 and 136 kamikaze drone strikes overnight on December 18-19.
Igor Girkin, a former Russian militant commander and prominent critical voice in the Russian milblogger information space, wrote a harsh critique of the Russian militaryβs overall performance in the war.
The Donetsk Peopleβs Republic (DNR) reportedly clashed with other Russian occupation authorities regarding basic administration procedures, suggesting tensions between the various occupation administrations in Ukraine.
The Wagner Group has likely built its offensive model around tactical brutality in order to accommodate for and take advantage of its base of poorly trained and recently recruited convicts.
Russian forces continued limited counterattacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line as Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces targeted Russian rear positions in Luhansk Oblast.
Russian forces reportedly lost positions south of Bakhmut on December 18 and continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and Donetsk City.
Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are pulling back some elements from areas along the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin continued efforts to establish the Wagner Group as a legitimate parastatal organization by petitioning notoriously nationalist elements in the Kremlin.
Russian occupation authorities continued to restrict movement within occupied territories and employ societal intimidation tactics.
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Kyiv Indep Telegram
β‘οΈUK to provide Ukraine with $304 million
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/uk-to-provide-ukraine-with-304-million-in-military-aid)in military aid.
The U.K. will deliver βhundreds of thousands of rounds of artillery ammunitionβ to Ukraine in 2023 under a new $304 million (Β£250 million) contract.
β‘οΈZelensky: Russia receives 250 (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-russia-receives-250-more-iranian-made-kamikaze-drones) more Iranian-made kamikaze drones.
β‘οΈCanada to seize assets of sanctioned Russian billionaire Abramovich. (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/canada-to-seize-assets-of-sanctioned-russian-billionaire-abramovich)
Canadia announced it would start seizing approximately $26 million from Granite Capital Holdings Ltd, a firm owned by Roman Abramovich.
β‘οΈEU ministers agree on gas price cap (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/eu-ministers-agree-on-gas-price-cap).
Energy ministers of the European Union member states on Dec. 19 have reached a consensus on a cap for natural gas prices, according to the spokesperson for the Czech Republic's EU presidency, Dmitrij Δernikov.
Reuters reported, citing an official document, that the new policy states that a cap on gas prices will be implemented at 180 euros per megawatt hour
β‘οΈGeneral Staff: Ukrainian military shoots down (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukrainian-military-shoots-down-two-russian-helicopters) two Russian helicopters.
β‘οΈUkrainian intelligence: Putin postponed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainian-intelligence-putin-postponed-ukraine-invasion-date-three-times) Ukraine invasion date three times.
Russian President Vladimir Putin delayed (gur.gov.ua/content/putin-trychi-vidkladav-terminy-pochatku-vtorhnennia-do-ukrainy.html) Russia's planned invasion of Ukraine on three occasions after consulting with Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, ccording to Vadym Skibitsky, a deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency.
β‘οΈMoldovan intelligence: "Very high" risk (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/moldovan-intelligence-very-high-risk-of-new-russian-offensive-towards-occupied-transnistria) of new Russian offensive towards occupied Transnistria.
β‘οΈZaluzhnyi urges (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zaluzhnyi-urges-zelensky-to-sign-law-increasing-consequences-for-desertion) Zelensky to sign law increasing consequences for desertion. [which indicates this is indeed a problem]
β‘οΈEnergy giant DTEK says (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/energy-giant-dtek-says-10-hour-long-power-outages-in-kyiv-new-reality) 10-hour-long power outages in Kyiv 'new reality.β
β‘οΈZelensky calls on (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-called-on-the-georgian-authorities-to-release-saakashvili-for-treatment-abroad) Georgia to release Saakashvili for treatment abroad.
President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the Georgian government to transfer ex-President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili, imprisoned in Georgia for over a year, to a clinic outside of the country.
β‘οΈReuters: US accuses (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-us-accuses-un-of-yielding-to-russian-threats-over-iranian-made-drone-inspections) UN of yielding to Russian threats over Iranian-made drone inspections.
β‘οΈZelensky: 'Bakhmut remains (kyivindependent.com/draft/zelensky-bakhmut-remains-hottest-point-on-entire-front-line?draft=1671506061) hottest point on entire front line.'
β‘οΈWhite House says (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/white-house-says-us-closely-monitoring-russian-troops-in-belarus) US 'closely monitoring' Russian troops in Belarus.
β‘οΈMedia: Shoigu's "visit" to Russian forward positions was 80 kilometers (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-shoigus-visit-to-russian-forward-positions-was-80-kilometers-from-front-line) from front line.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's claimed "visit" to "forward Russian positions" in Ukraine turned out to be more than 80 kilometers away from the front line in Russian-occupied Crimea, RFE/RL reported.
β‘οΈ β‘οΈ President Volodymyr Zelensky arrives in Bakhmut with an unannounced visit.
Source: Reporting by Ukrainian public broadcaster Freedom on the ground.
β‘οΈ Ukraine to receive (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/minister-ukraine-to-receive-over-10-000-starlink-systems-in-coming-months) over 10,000 Elon Musk's Starlink systems in coming months.
βMusk assured us he will continue to support Ukraine. He understands the situation,β Ukraine's Digital Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said in an interview with Bloomberg. [this is interesting, in view of the current considerable controversy over Musk, Twitter, preventing Ukrainian telephone numbers from registering on Twitter, trouble with Starlink payments a while back and current fotos of him with a Putin associate]
Live: Ukraine Telegram
NSDC Secretary Danilov believes that the Russians have enough missiles for 3-4 attacks, but after that they will be exhausted, which is unacceptable for the military
Ukrainian intelligence admits that our agents "work" on the territory of Russia
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian agents have been working in Russia, conducting operations "using various means".
These operations are complex and require serious preparation, because Russians are well guarding their military facilities.
"Our targets are purely military: objects of the Russian armed forces from which strikes on Ukraine are carried out, in particular logistics centers, command posts or garrisons with a large number of soldiers," said Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, in an interview with the German edition Bild.
The Russian occupation administration in Crimea is destroying the architectural monument of national importance - the Khan's Palace in Bakhchisarai. They started dismantling the roof and the ensemble of colored stained-glass windows of the Golden Cabinet, as well as replacing the ancient roof with modern building materials.
βοΈUkraine has not yet received any weapons under the landlease. The Foreign Ministry explained that so far Washington provides weapons under other programs free of charge to save the Ukrainian budget in the future.
Polish support for Ukrainians and Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia may reach $9 billion (40 billion zlotys), of which almost $2 billion is military aid.
Reuters: Wheat exports from occupied Crimea to Syria increased 17 times to 500 thousand tons. This is almost a third of total grain imports to the country
Ukraine's Ambassador to the U.S. Markarova says Kyiv welcomes calls in the Republican Party for a more thorough review of U.S. aid to Ukraine to protect it from a full-scale Russian invasion
πΊπΈUkraine received power equipment worth more than $100 thousand from USAID - Ukrenergo
"These are devices that allow you to control technological processes and monitor key technological parameters of substation operation, timely identify problems in equipment and prevent accidents," the message says.
Russian TV host says Russia must use nukes to defeat the demonic/satanic West. (some of these guys have serious reality/mental health problems, if they genuinely believe that)
β‘οΈUkraine has received two billion dollars from the United States, this is the second part of the grant for 4.5 billion dollars, - the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine.
UNITED24 Media Telegram
β‘οΈ Lukashenko said that S-400s and Iskanders transferred by Russia were put on combat duty in Belarus today
The Russian Federation wants to automatically deprive holders of Russian passports of Ukrainian citizenship
The bill was registered in the State Duma. The proposed mechanism provides for the termination of Ukrainian citizenship from the moment an application is submitted to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation.
During the nine months of a full-scale war, Russia issued almost 300,000 of its passports, mainly to the most vulnerable categories of Ukrainians, in particular, those deported to the Russian Federation, whose survival directly depends on receiving it.
βοΈHungary and the Netherlands opposed the gas cap price
Dutch climate and energy minister Rob Jetten said the proposed cap was "potentially dangerous to securing gas supplies." [fucking hell Netherlands. We expect arseholeness from Hungary, but the NL? There are a LOT of people suffering due to the energy prices now and the pathetically high and limited cap on prices]
The Russian military is developing plans for "massive infantry attacks" similar to the tactics used by the USSR during World War II, writes the New York Times.
Russia showed a modernized atomic bomber "White Swan"
According to Newsweek, an upgraded version of the Tu-160M strategic bomber is now capable of carrying Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic nuclear missiles.
β¨ KrakΓ³w will turn off the lights for 12 days in a row as a sign of solidarity with Ukraine
From December 21 to January 1, the city will turn off the lights at six points. This is a symbolic gesture of solidarity with the Ukrainian people as part of the Light for Ukraine campaign, Radio KrakΓ³w reports.
πΊπΈπΊπ¦ US plans $44.9bn emergency aid to Ukraine and NATO allies β Reuters
According to the publication, this is being discussed in the 2023 budget bill, which amounts to $1.7 trillion. The document has already been submitted to Congress and will be considered in the near future.
The International Monetary Fund approved a new four-month program to support the economic stability of Ukraine at the expense of donor countries
According to preliminary IMF estimates, in 2023 the country will need from 40 to 57 billion dollars of external financing.
β‘οΈ Ukraine received more than $360 million from Canada as part of a loan agreement, the press service of the Ministry of Finance reports.
The total amount of the loan will exceed $1 billion.
The US Congress has received a draft budget for 2023, which includes nearly $45 billion in aid to Ukraine
The agreed draft US budget includes:
β«οΈAllocating $44.9 billion to help Ukraine;
β«οΈAllows President Joe Biden to transfer military equipment worth up to $14.5 billion to Ukraine;
β«οΈ$9 billion for training, equipment, weapons and logistics, and intelligence assistance for the Ukrainian military;
β«οΈ$13 billion in economic and budgetary support for the Ukrainian authorities;
β«οΈ$2.4 billion for resettlement, support, and English lessons for Ukrainian refugees;
β«οΈ$12 billion to replenish the American stock of equipment to replace the one transferred to Ukraine;
β«οΈ$126 million to prepare to respond to possible nuclear and radiation incidents in Ukraine;
β«οΈ$7 billion for European Command operations and assistance in intelligence operations.
In addition, the bill prohibits the use of the social network TikTok by civil servants.
Washington Post Telegram
Russia attacks Kyiv overnight with swarm of self-detonating drones
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/19/kyiv-drones-attack-belarus-putin/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)KYIV, Ukraine β Russia attacked Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities in the early hours of Monday with a horde of self-detonating drones β once again bombing critical infrastructure but with a sinister tactical shift that seemed intended to deprive Ukrainians not only of heat, electricity, and water but also of sleep.
Air raids sirens rang out in Kyiv at 2 a.m., the shrill sound amplified by the emptiness of the capitalβs streets during its overnight curfew.
Russia has been bombing Ukrainian cities relentlessly with missiles and drones since early October seeking to destroy the countryβs energy grid and leave citizens without urgent services in the frigid winter, including a heavy missile barrage on Friday.
But Mondayβs strikes mark the first time Russia had sent such a large fleet of drones overnight.
less Russian personnel losses, but two helicopters down.