Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

Article from The Daily Beast by Allison Quinn, published 20th December:

We’re Just Meat’: Russian Military Keeps Killing Its Own Troops

Russian soldiers sent next door to kill Ukrainianss_ are increasingly getting killed by their own military instead.
That’s according to the independent outlet iStoriess_, which on Tuesday released a new report detailing Russia’s deadly mishaps on the battlefield, with drunk soldiers, negligent commanders, and the clumsy use of weapons blamed for the trend.
Russian troops have also been caught venting openly to relatives about the dangers they face from their own men in Ukraine.
In audioo_ released by Ukrainian intelligence on Tuesday and said to capture a Russian soldier's phone conversation, a man identified only as Aleksei tells his mother the military just sent reinforcements. He explains that the reinforcements came because “20 people are gone.”

“Our tank hit hard: It fired twice and 20 guys, fuck. I’m telling you, what the fuck kind of command is this, scumbags. They’re fucking killing their own,” Aleksei, who described himself as a commander, said.
“I’m telling you, there are more losses from our own [guys],” than the Ukrainians, he said.
Another purported soldier, heard complaining to a friend back home in audioo_ released Monday, said it was clear the military leadership gives “zero fucks” if their soldiers come back alive.
“It’s not a war, it’s a shit show. It’s complete bullshit,” he said. “That’s it, the entire response from leadership: There are 300,000 of you, basically, we don’t give a fuck.”
“Don’t you dare come here, and know that it’s complete shit,” he told his friend. “Only on [state-run] Channel One are there fucking tanks, here there’s fucking nothing, brother. Here there’s nothing, you have no food, you drink from puddles.”
The dispatches from the battlefield have finally begun to filter through to ordinary Russians back home, many of whom have been bombarded in recent days with propaganda videoss_ urging them to sign up for the war to earn some extra cash. Perhaps in a sign of low morale, the videos were so cringey that many pro-Kremlin bloggers began pushing the claim they were actually made by Ukraine’s intelligence services to discredit the war.
The reality on the ground is that Russia is knowingly killing its own troops even as it wages war against Ukraine, according to Russian troops interviewed by Mediazonaa_.
Dmitry Panov, a 30-year-old Muscovite, told the independent outlet he’d volunteered to join the war in the summer but refused to fight any further after commanders mistakenly killed their own men in Novoselivka in the Donetsk region.
“We are just meat. They don’t want to know us, they present us as some kind of animals that are being led to the slaughter," Panov said.
After commanders didn’t even bother to notify his unit that their location in the Kharkiv region had already been surrendered to Ukraine, he said, “many guys' eyes stopped burning brightly and dimmed from the realization that we were not soldiers or defenders here, we were something else. Then we realized that we were disposable.”
That realization has begun to seep in more and more for troops slated to keep the war going in Ukraine. An entire battalion in Crimea has now refused to fight because they don’t want to “die in vain,” according to a report from Astraa_ out Tuesday.
Relatives interviewed by the channel said the entire 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade opted out due to “heavy losses.”
iStories reports that some Russians killed during the war never even made it to the front line—even though Russian media claimed they had died heroically on the battlefield.
Roman Moiseyev, 25, was mourned by people in Russia’s Vladimir region after supposedly dying in Ukraine in March. The reality, however, is that he was shot dead by a fellow soldier in Belgorod, iStories reports.
While “friendly fire” incidents are typical in any war, experts told iStories the rate of Russians killing Russians has shot up in recent months and surpasses that of anything seen before.
“At the very beginning of the full-scale invasion, there were fewer victims of friendly fire in the Russian army than there are now,” Ukrainian military expert Alexander Kovalenko was quoted saying.
Such incidents are reported every day, he said.

ISW Key Takeaways
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Russian pressure against Belarus is degrading Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s maneuver room to avoid making concessions to the Kremlin.

ISW continues to observe indicators consistent with the least likely but most dangerous course of action (MDCOA) of a renewed Russian invasion of northern Ukraine from Belarus.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Bakhmut undermines an ongoing Kremlin information operation to present Russian President Vladimir Putin as an involved war leader.

Wagner financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin undercut Putin’s efforts to portray himself as a wartime leader within the Russian information space, possibly inadvertently.

The Kremlin’s efforts to improve the reputation of the Russian MoD may have prompted Prigozhin to increase his efforts to legalize Wagner Group in Russia.

The Kremlin will likely continue efforts to portray Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as effective leaders when Putin holds an expanded annual Russian MoD board meeting on December 21.

Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas.

Russian forces are expanding defensive fortifications on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.

A Kremlin official deflected questioning surrounding a Moscow Oblast military recruitment officer’s December 17 claim that Russian authorities will extend the service period for conscript soldiers.

Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded that Russian security services intensify their efforts to counter pro-Ukrainian partisan activity.

+++

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️ Watchdog: Russia transfers (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/watchdog-russia-transfers-personnel-military-equipment-closer-to-belarusian-border-with-ukraine) personnel, military equipment closer to Belarusian border with Ukraine.

⚡️ The Economist names (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/the-economist-names-ukraine-country-of-the-year) Ukraine ‘country of the year.’
The Economist has chosen Ukraine to be the “country of the year” for 2022 due to “the heroism of its people and for standing up to a bully.”

⚡️Ministry: Ukraine receives $2 billion grant from US for budget support.
Ukraine has received grant funds worth $2 billion from the U.S. through the World Bank’s Trust Fund, Ukraine's Finance Ministry reported (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ministry-ukraine-receives-2-billion-grant-from-us-for-budget-support) on Dec. 20.
The money will be used for paying pensions and salaries to Ukrainian emergency workers and providing free medical services, the ministry said.

⚡️General Staff: Russia moves more personnel, equipment from Far East to Ukraine

⚡️UK defense secretary: Russia to provide (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/uk-defense-secretary-russia-to-provide-iran-with-high-tech-components) Iran with high-tech components.

⚡️Italian journalists attacked (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/italian-journalists-attacked-by-russian-forces-in-kherson) by Russian forces in Kherson.
Russian troops “deliberately attacked” Italian journalists Claudio Locatelli and Niccolo Celesti in Ukraine’s southern city of Kherson, ANSA, an Italian media outlet, reported, citing a video published by Locatelli on Facebook.

⚡️Macron: France to supply (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/macron-france-to-supply-more-weapons-to-ukraine-in-early-2023) more weapons to Ukraine in early 2023.
France has supplied Ukraine with rocket launchers and Crotale air defense systems and will deliver more weapons early next year, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Dec. 20, as cited by France 24.

⚡️Bloomberg: Russian oil exports collapse (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bloomberg-russian-oil-exports-collapse-after-g-7-eu-sanctions) after G7, EU sanctions.
Russia’s oil shipments by sea collapsed in the first week since the G7 and EU sanctions against Russian oil came into effect on Dec. 5, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 20.
Total volumes exported from the country fell by 1.86 million barrels per day, or 54% during this period, according to the publication.

⚡️World Bank approves $610 million (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/world-bank-approves-610-million-package-to-address-ukraines-urgent-needs) package to address Ukraine's urgent needs.
The World Bank Group announced on Dec. 20

⚡️AP: US to send (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ap-us-to-send-1-8-billion-in-military-aid-patriot-missile-battery-to-ukraine) $1.8 billion in military aid, Patriot missile battery, to Ukraine.
The United States will provide $1.8 billion in military aid to Ukraine in a package that will include a Patriot missile battery and precision-guided bombs for fighter jets, U.S. officials told the Associated Press on condition of anonymity as the aid has not yet been officially announced.

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine repels (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/israel-sends-17-generators-to-kherson-oblast) Russian attacks near 25 settlements in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk oblasts.

UNITED24 Media

⚡️Attack of drones on December 19 became the largest since the beginning of the war, – the command of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin will hold an extended meeting of the collegium of the Ministry of Defense on December 21 – Kremlin press service.

The United States threatened Belarus with new sanctions in case of more active assistance to Moscow in the war with Ukraine, – the head of the press service of the US State Department.

Ukraine is not our ally, they are trying to impose it on us by force – Croatian President Zoran Milanović
“The EU treats Croatia as deaf and blind, and we do not consider Ukraine our ally,” the politician said, commenting on the government’s decision to support the initiative to train the armed forces in the country.
Milanović is known for actively promoting Kremlin narratives to the masses before the start of Russian aggression against Ukraine. He also said that Ukraine has no place in NATO. The president's views are not shared by either Prime Minister Plenković or Defense Minister Banožić, who have repeatedly publicly criticized Zoran Milanović.

It is important for the Russian Federation that Christmas and New Year in Ukraine pass in the dark – Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal

⚡️Great Britain sent Ukraine 900 generators and about 15,000 sets of winter uniforms – Defense Minister Ben Wallace
Another 10,000 kits are expected to be delivered by Christmas.

❗️Absolutely not imitating Volodymyr Zelensky, Russian President Vladimir Putin allegedly visited the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine [oh aye, right, did he now]

❗️ Volodymyr Zelensky went to the USA today to meet with Joe Biden.
The president also noted that he plans to address Congress.
⚡️Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi calls on all members of Congress to physically attend the meeting.

The leadership of the Russian Federation has conflicting views on whether to launch a new offensive against Ukraine

The Netherlands provided Kyiv with a loan of 200 million euros on favorable terms to finance the expenses of the general fund of the state budget – the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine [the NL won't make a loss of it, that's for sure]

⚡️A bill is being prepared at the White House, thanks to which it will be possible to declare Russia an "aggressor country" — The Hill
The bill will give the US president new powers to impose sanctions on Russian officials.

German exports to Russia remain low due to war in Ukraine — Bild
In November, goods worth 1.2 billion euros were exported from Germany to Russia (52.4% less than last year).

Live: Ukraine Telegram

CNN, citing sources, writes that Ukraine will receive "converters" of bombs into high-precision missiles in a new package from the United States. We are talking about Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) kits. In fact, these are trailed missile wings and tail, which are "put on" on an unguided bomb. Such kits can be installed on bombs of different weights and sizes.

🇫🇮 Finland has approved another package of military assistance for Ukraine - its value is 28.8 million euros. This is the eleventh shipment of Finnish defense equipment for Ukraine. The total value of all Finnish military assistance packages is already 189.2 million euros.

Serhiy Zhadan received the Schwarzkopf Europe Prize for supporting democratic values - ICIP

+++++

The details of the visit of Volodymyr Zelensky to the United States have become known.

▫️The President of the United States personally invited Zelensky to visit America — the official invitation to Washington was made on Wednesday, December 14.

▫️The President of Ukraine will spend part of the day in the United States, after which he will return to Ukraine. The composition of the delegation is not yet known. The United States advised the Ukrainian side on security issues.

▫️Zelensky will meet with Biden at the White House and address Congress, while the Ukrainian delegation will meet with the US national security team and government representatives. A press conference is also planned.

▫️On the eve of Zelensky's visit, the White House will announce one of the largest military assistance packages of almost $2 billion, which will include Patriot air defense systems.

▫️Zelensky's visit is also important because this week Congress will approve new financial assistance to Ukraine for nearly $45 billion.
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One plane down and over the 500 again. Very close to the 100,000 mark. Slightly more than usual hardware destroyed, so perhaps there have been skirmishes other than in Bakhmut.

About Bakhmut, what's been said is that Wagner are saving the experienced leaders and equipment by sending the convict recruits in waves, trying to overwhelm the town by sheer numbers. This fits with the high personnel but low hardware losses. It does seem that Ukraine is still holding the town just about, but the Uk Defense update indicates slow Russian advances are being made.

Note: the summary of the last 300 days' losses do not include many dead of Mariupol, of whom there is very limited information.

Authoritative military expert, retired Australian Army General Mick Ryan analyzes the conditions necessary for the return of Crimea to Ukrainian control

In his opinion, for this you need to perform four main tasks:

📍First, Ukraine's allies must stop giving mixed signals about Crimea's status

📍Secondly, the Western industry should increase the production of ammunition for Ukraine and transfer more offensive weapons to it. Armored vehicles (tanks, infantry fighting vehicles) as well as artillery and air defense systems are needed.

📍Thirdly, Ukraine must complete its offensive operations in order to regain control over all southern territories. “The fighting to liberate the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions will be tough, but they are a necessary condition for any Ukrainian campaign in Crimea,” Ryan writes.

📍Fourthly, strategic patience is needed: “Before the Crimean operation becomes possible, Ukraine may need all of 2023 to establish control over its southern territories”

It would be a big thing for Zelensky to visit the USA, let alone leave his country.

Following his visit to Bakhmut, Russian forces are reportedly making yet more major assaults there, but that hardly seems to be anything new.

A Wagner Telegram feed this morning suggests a particular focus on the village of Klishchiivka, 2km SW of the edge of Bakhmut. Unlike some reports of Russian forces methodically clearing Bakhmut block by block (that are posted so frequently that progress must have taken them to Warsaw by now) this is more realistic in saying that:

Wagner fighters are working in the vicinity of the village of Kleshcheyevka. [Ru into Eng sp] According to incoming information, it has been possible to dislodge the enemy from the eastern outskirts. It is vital to understand that, despite its size, this village is not easy to storm. The Ukrainians have been preparing this defensive position, because if captured, Kleshcheyevka opens the road to Artemovsk (Bakhmut) from the south-west.

A Wagner feed here:

t.me/s/wagnernew

Day 300, December 20, 2022. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin broadcast
Posted on 21 December 2022

Frontline Update

⚫️ Kherson
Artillery exchanges: Kherson is under enemy fire; several civilians died. Unlike RU, which fires at residential areas, UA fires at military targets like headquarters, ammunition dumps, concentrations of troops, etc.

⚫️ Melitopol
UA General Staff reports that the enemy is moving troops from Tokmak to Melitopol, further away from the frontline. RU command considers Melitopol’s defense as the key to their entire southern front, from Dniper to Mariupol. RU strengthens defensive positions in Melitopol and Crimea.

⚫️ Donbass
RU attempted and failed to surround Maryinka and Avdiivka. The main battles are south and east of Bakhmut – the enemy was pushed back. Belohorivka – less intensity than in Bakhmut but the same “logic” of relentless and futile attacks from the enemy.

⚫️ Cities under fire
Shelling by Russian troops of Kharkiv, Zaporizhya, Mykolaiv, Kryvyi Rih, and Nikopol from the MLRS or S-300 systems continues. Kherson is also hit by field artillery.

⚫️ Zelensky visits Bakhmut
President Zelensky visited Bakhmut to offer moral support and awards to UA defenders. In contrast, earlier, the Minister of Defense of the RF Shoigu flew in a helicopter over the green fields of Armyansk, Crimea. Zelensky sends the message that he is united with his troops, unlike Putin, who never visited his soldiers even though they, according to Putin, are executing fate-defining tasks for Russia and personally for Putin.

⚫️ Two opposite political models
When Zelensky meets with his troops, they are fully armed. Putin would never allow anyone armed to approach him except his bodyguards. Why? In the 17th century, European travelers noted that at that time, Ukrainians and Russians (Moscovites) had a lot in common: close languages, traditions, behavioral patterns, etc. But they belonged to two distinct, radically opposite political cultures that differed in ideas and practices.
The same distinction is demonstrated in the two leaders of states today. Putin would never order to arm hundreds of thousands. Zelensky did so on Day 1 of this war. Putin would never unite with the political opposition in the face of danger to national security. In Ukraine, General Marchenko, who was under investigation, joined the defense forces in the South. People who criticize and even insult Zelensky are armed and fighting, defending their country, yet not even subject to disciplinary action. They are not disarmed, their rights are not violated, and they are often awarded and promoted in rank.
Putin’s spokesperson Peskov claimed Putin had visited the SMO (special military operation) zone and met with commanders there. But any part of Russia can now be included in the SMO zone. UA intelligence claims the commanders meeting with Putin were summoned to report to the ministry of defense of RF at the time, so they could not have met with Putin on the frontline.
A video with Prigozhin, the founder of the RU private military company Wagner, claims he was trying to get the attention of Zelensky by using the Morse code with artillery. The message was to meet with Zelensky if he was still in Bakhmut.
This was the second time the sledgehammer swayer addressed Zelensky. This was an inappropriate attempt to show equality and eligibility to speak at the level of a president. This could be Putin’s message to threaten the RU elite and oligarchs, with the prospect of Prigozhin becoming president and thus raising Putin’s rating.
The board meeting of the MoD of RF is scheduled for tomorrow. Most likely, the agenda will include readiness for further use of forces and means, intermediary reports on the ongoing training, plans for future offensive, etc.

⚫️ Ukrainian identity
The Economist named Ukraine the country of the year 2022. Earlier, Time magazine named Zelensky the person of the year. War determined Ukraine’s place in history as a subject of international politics. What image of Ukrainians will be captured?
This war created an image of a Ukrainian as a person with acute subjectness or, in the words of Zelensky, “every one of us is President.” Ukraine as a nation is represented by socially active, proactive subjects who, in turn, produce a collective subject. Before the war, few people could describe a Ukrainian. Today’s common type goes beyond the military: volunteers, medics, power engineers, etc. The common image will be a people who are quick to defend themselves and do it well, a don’t-mess-with-me image. Ukrainians are already known for their welcoming, hospitable nature, but now they will also be known as people who immediately respond to threats and fight back. And they will do it well, skillfully, and creatively.
NATO officers report extreme ingenuity among UA troops, the ability to improvise, gain quick mastery of new weapons, generate creative non-standard solutions, etc. Ukrainian national idea revolves around freedom and willingness to fight for it. It winds people up; they are driven by it. A new Ukrainian identity is being forged, and the world is getting better acquainted with it.

⚫️ Subversive activity in RU
The State Duma approved the terms of punishment for sabotage as man-made disasters continue to plague Russia. No one claims responsibility, but the sequence of events indicates its direct connection to the war. One reason could be mobilization which removed safety specialists from the technical processes. RU sees it as likely a deliberate activity, hence the harsher punishments.

⚫️ Prolonged conflict
Xi Jinping declared that it is not in anyone’s interest to prolong the crisis in Ukraine. Although the message is addressed to all involved, China indirectly urges RU to stop. Last 2-3 months, the topic of negotiations has been widely discussed. But as soon as Zelensky suggested a Christmas Truce, Russia declined. So who is avoiding negotiations? War can immediately end with the order from Putin calling his military operation off. China doesn’t want a prolonged conflict yet trades with Russia circumventing sanctions with evidence found in the wreckage in Ukraine: missiles, aviation, armored vehicles, drones, etc.

⚫️ Weapons
The United States plans to transfer Patriot systems to Ukraine in the next package of military aid. The result of Putin’s wise policy: Patriot systems will be closer to Russian borders by 500-600 km.
In Kyiv, the Security Declaration on the need for nuclear disarmament of the Russian Federation was adopted. Anyone can sign the initiative in the interests of the entire civilization.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-speech-today-russia-ukraine-b2249292.html?amp

Putin’s latest statement, this time at a meeting of his defence chiefs. Not sure it really means much, just word salad. Surely nuclear forces are always ‘combat ready’ otherwise they aren’t much of a deterrent?

He just constantly doubles down

Did anyone see Justin Welby on the Laura Kuenssberg programme on Sunday. She asked him about reconcilliation in regards to the Ukraine war and I thought, here we go, lets all hug it out and sing Kumbaya. But he was solid. Really surprised me. He said that when Putin invaded Ukraine he opened the gates of hell and unleashed all the evils within upon the world and there can be no reconcilliation until he calls a ceasefire and withdraws completely from all of Ukraine's territory.

Fladdermus · Today 15:03
Did anyone see Justin Welby on the Laura Kuenssberg programme on Sunday. She asked him about reconcilliation in regards to the Ukraine war and I thought, here we go, lets all hug it out and sing Kumbaya. But he was solid. Really surprised me. He said that when Putin invaded Ukraine he opened the gates of hell and unleashed all the evils within upon the world and there can be no reconcilliation until he calls a ceasefire and withdraws completely from all of Ukraine's territory.

That is a surprise and very welcome. I saw he said unequivocally that Ukraine is fighting a just war:
From The Church Times
JL: From Ukraine’s point of view, should we think of this as a just war according to the Christian criteria?
JW: Yes.
www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2022/9-december/news/world/welby-interviewed-this-is-a-just-war-and-the-ukrainians-will-hold-out-for-a-just

About his recent visit to Ukraine:

m.youtube.com/watch?v=zvErJ6tbqnE

I didn’t see these recent Welby things but he said something similar a month or so ago.

Just listening to Ukraine the Latest from today and they’re talking about a perspective on Zelensky’s visit to Washington that I hadn’t considered. Basically that, whilst it’s obviously positive, it also indicates potential concern that Western resolve is faltering. They say that if Zelenskyy and Ukraine were truly confident of continued western and American support he probably wouldn’t bother to travel at this point.

Jinx Jelly, I'm listening too. But that point is also contradicted by the discussions emphasis on how this strengthens relations and is a rebuke to precisely that narrative from Russia. Personally, I don't think there is any dip in support from the current administration (the invite came from them) - the worry will be in 2025 if we get a President who undoes the good work

This is how I see the situation too. The budget deal with the aid to Ukraine is already agreed to by Congressional leaders. It will help politically and with public opinion to have Zelensky come here and express appreciation for American support. It will also properly piss off the Russians. All good.

Normally just lurk on here (thanks to everyone) but thought Fiona Hill’s Reith Lecture on Freedom from Fear has some relevance.

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001g956

Gosh listening to this now and it's actually making me feel quite anxious 🤢

borntobequiet · Today 18:46
Normally just lurk on here (thanks to everyone) but thought Fiona Hill’s Reith Lecture on Freedom from Fear has some relevance.

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001g956

I heard that this morning and agree with you that it is relevant. She has the art of being able to put ideas across very simply and clearly too.

Thanks just finished it, a good listen. I like Fiona Hill, she talks a lot of sense and is a true expert on Russia and Putin. Thanks for posting it

Interestingly it’s doing the exact opposite for me.

Amazing scenes from The White House

❤

That was a great press conference. I think he'll be very we!l received by Congress. I hope he gives at least part of the address in English. I found the simultaneous translation a bit hard to follow.

Politically this visit will be very helpful for Ukraine.

It was great wasn’t it? Relaxed, natural and REAL. Such a change from the Kremlin sideshow. Nice to see humour being used appropriately, giving it such a human touch that will go down well.

And that speech to Congress…absolutely perfect. The reaction was something else!

He is a very savvy political operator. He tied their struggles to historical American struggles. He directly addressed the skeptics by pointing out that aid to Ukraine isn't charity, it's an investment in global security.

He got many rounds of applause and at the end, some in the audience chanted "Glory to Ukraine, glory to heroes!".

Just brilliant.