Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

Re: other thread, I think part of the problem is that if you are not following this on a daily basis "big" news is taken out of context in both the current status of the war and the geo-political temperature.

I'm not suggesting this event is not significant, but concluding that this was a deliberate act and the ramifications are likely to equate to a NATO engagement under A5 and escalate to nuclear deployment is akin to reading the blurb on the dust jacket of a hardback and thinking you've read and understood the book plus it's yet unwritten sequels.

Completely spot on.

Its the level of reading the sensationalist headlines and taking them at face value. Thats not politics.

@BreadInCaptivity 100% and then some! Great analogy.

Off topic but I thoroughly believe that if the Republican do win the House by only one or two seats it will be a cluster fuck and total poison chalice for them.

Trump has proven to be toxic at the ballot box and thats got many Republicans thinking.

If you look to what happened under May and trying to get votes she needed and it going to the wire...

Trump is unlikely to disappear off into the sunset even if he does decide to stand again.

I would not be at all surprised by massive amounts of tribalism and a few moderate republics upsetting the apple cart on a few issues.

If the dems are smart they should let it play out whilst maintaining a distance. It's a 'don't interrupt your enemy whilst they are making a mistake.

Antonio Gerashchenko:

Poland officially confirmed that the rocket that fell on their territory, was of Russian origin.

Russian ambassador in Poland is called to Polish Foreign Affairs Ministry.

Hi everyone,

Haven’t read much of the thread tonight but you all seem to be sensible and levelheaded!

My question is, is this likely to result in a world war? Given that it’s always been maintained that if Russia strike nato territory there will be retaliation?

Short answer: No

See posts below (by multiple posters) for rationale.

I’m absolutely shitting myself not going to lie, I am terrified nuclear war is about to kick off and I am not coping at all! I came here because all I have seen on the news and I feel other opinion rather than my one that only jumps to 600000 might give me a more level head

Article 5 can only be invoked if it's a deliberate strike

No IMHO it won't result in a world war.

There's certainly no treaty requirement for NATO members to automatically respond en-mass to tonight's events by retaliating against Russia.

What seems to be happening short term is that there's going to be discussion amongst the members about what NATO should do next (under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty)...

I'd expect a considered response, perhaps along the lines of beefing up air defences over Poland and possibly across to over the western Ukraine, I'm sure other options will be on the table.

Please, don’t. There is absolutely no way it’s all about to kick off. This is awful but there will not be an escalatory response precisely because the stakes are so high.

Thank you for your kind words, I have been so anxious for months and I had just calmed down about this, having awful dreams that nuclear war kicked off and it would be like Chernobyl on a bigger scale, o know it’s very different and before people jump and have a go at me I meant in regards to radiation shit and what it can cause and then saw this and and beside myself with anxiety

Absolutely awful indeed but to cheer you up we are all at more risk of dying of heart disease 🙈

Or covid

Or a car accident

It’s frightening ❤️ but it’ll all be OK.

You have a choice.

• Continue to fret by reading the "headlines" and live in a state of anxiety

• Turn off the news and trust that highly experienced diplomats are working to ensure such an outcome does not happen (and have done so successfully far more times than the general public will ever know about)

• Engage regularly about what's happening in Ukraine (and this thread is a great resource) rather than getting scared about one specific incident that's clickbait for the news corporations and thus overly elevated in its relative significance

I personally think it’s fortuitous that all the G20 leaders are together, with particular reference to XiPing. Will make comms a LOT easier.

The immediate effect of even a tiny majority is that they take the chairs of all of the committees. There will be a lot of gridlock but some legislation can pass if it gets support from moderate Republicans, so the budget, aid for Ukraine, defense spending, etc. A lot of Biden's domestic agenda will be dead in the water for lack of any Republican support.

I think that Trump has been badly wounded and will continue to be his own worst enemy, further diminishing his support. Ron DeSantis is the defacto leader of the party, whether he likes it or not. Even most Republicans are tired of the chaos at this point.

I can't believe how unlucky it was that two people were killed, mostly for them and their loved ones of course but also for the overall situation. I'm not familiar with the area at all but all the reports are saying it happened on a tiny village farm, so presumably there's miles and miles of surrounding land where a stray missile could have landed that would have been deserted. The chances of killing one person in an incident like this, never mind two, must have been incredibly remote.

Not suggesting this was an intentional attack at all - to be honest it didn't even cross my mind that people might think it was anything but an accident til I saw the other thread - but it's such an unfortunate coincidence.

Thanks all

Biden has suggested preliminary evidence suggests the missile wasn’t fired from Russia.

Morning!
Followed the other threads till thread 13 then it all de-escalated a bit so I stopped reading.
Read the other thread and came straight here.
Also think missile was a stray. The Russians aren't the most accurate with their old weapons.
Read this thread quickly before I go into work this morning as I work with a guy with anxiety who won't have slept last night and I might be able to put his mind at rest.
Thanks to all with the sensible info, as always.

.

Yy bread.

This is a chat forum after all not an exclusive political discussion club at uni.
People get scared and want to chat about this event on a well, chat forum and I think someone the superior lofty sneering at people who "read the book cover" is embarrassing. .

US intelligence that it was a Ukrainian missile that hit Poland, fired at an incoming Russian one.