Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

And this is why cooler heads are needed at the top of the chain. Any rash decisions could have had disastrous consequences here.

A series of calming responses to the Poland incident from from good analysts (imo) on Twitter to help us stay zen this morning.

Peter Zeihan: "Deep breath everyone.
The US is literally listening on Putin’s calls. This was almost certainly an accident. There will be repercussions, but not a massive nato action from this one thing."...."Poland is not attempting to blow this out of proportion, therefore, it will not be blown out of proportion."

Phillips P OBrien: "The Russian missile screw-up that ended up killing two Poles will result in NATO invoking article 4 not article 5 (see below). The consultation will probably result in more support for Ukraine, particularly air and anti-air power. Will give Poland some real influence. In a way the generally poor performance of Russian military equipment will help support the idea that this was not deliberate but a malfunction (and there have been many by Russian equipment in this war) . This is all just my opinions of course."

Rajan Menon: "Re RUS missile that hit Poland: Contrary to prevalent (though not universal) belief, Article V does NOT obligate NATO members to go to war if a fellow ally is attacked. It gives them leeway to take steps they deem suitable, including “the use of armed force." Let’s keep that in mind amidst the alarmism that the this incident will generate. That’s not to say what happened is not serious."

Ben Hodges: "Dear friends, there is no such thing as 'triggering' Article 5. It's not automatic.There is no laser beam that opens a door like at a hotel or store if you walk thru it. Art 5 is a political decision. In this case, Art 4 Consultations seem appropriate, until we have more facts."

Mick Ryan: "An important principle that is likely to guide the Polish, NATO and American responses to this irresponsible Russian attack in Poland is ‘proportionality’...The Polish government will consult among themselves and with NATO. NATO will conduct internal deliberations as well as consultations with the heads of member nations, including the United States....Through all this, there will be a search for a response to Russia which does not significantly escalate the war, but also sends a strong message to Russia that further such attacks can only result in a larger response from NATO...It is also likely that there may be a strengthening of air defences along NATO’s eastern borders, including Poland and the Baltic states. Poland may step up assistance even further, including more artillery and armoured vehicles...The attacks in Poland and Ukraine today will also harden the resolve of President Zelensky & Ukrainian people to achieve the ten elements of war termination that Zelensky outlined in his G20 (G19) speech...It is unlikely, however, that @NATO (or Russia) would wish to use this as a pretext for a widening of the war. But regardless of whose missile this was, it would not have fallen here if #Russia had not invaded #Ukraine.
19/ Miscalculation, recklessness and a callous – almost medieval – disregard for human life and international norms has been a characteristic of Russia’s bumbling and brutal invasion of #Ukraine...The Russian missile attacks on Poland & Ukraine today are further evidence for why democracies, whatever form or location, must be unified & unyielding in their resistance against the vicious techno-authoritarian regimes that threaten us all.

Deep State Radio's podcast this morning also discusses the incident: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/deep-state-radio/id1245002955?i=1000586333863

Frank Gardner was very reassuring on R4 just now. A good voice to wake to!

What was he saying, I missed it.

I do worry that this hasn't looked good for Zelenskey, immediately claiming Poland has been attacked when it could turn out to be a stray missile from Ukraine. I fear this may be used by the US to further push Ukraine to the table for negotiations citing of delicate the situation is and the need for this war to end.

Morning folks, everything still feels 'ok.' So on we go!

Zelenskey has got so much right in this war yet I do feel this is not one of those times.

Frank Gardner now just on BBC Breakfast. The man knows his onions and said unequivocally that this won't be the trigger for Article 5 being adopted and WW3 starting.

Agree the optics for Ukraine actually aren't great though the Dutch PM makes a good point that without Russian missile strikes across Ukraine this would never have happened.

Oh I get that but how far do we take that. Any death this winter due to not being able to afford heating is an indirect result of this war. Or the famine in the poorest country due to lack of grain.

Sometimes you look stronger by admitting your mistakes rather than doing a Putin and just doubling down on anything.

TBF though if this is the result of a UkraineS-300, perhaps fired from a battery positioned to protect Lviv, not working as advertised I'm not sure you can characterise it as a mistake...

Because of some that was being posted I spent quite some time banging on last night, especially on the other thread about how missiles don't always work/aren't always as accurate as sometimes portrayed and don't always go where directed.

What's also not widely understood is what goes up must come down..even if a air to air or surface to air missile misses it's target, times out and self destructs (they often do after a certain time) the big ones scatter a lot of sizeable and heavy debris across the countryside.

If the Russians insist on firing missiles at Ukraine and the Ukraines insist on exercising their right to self defence accidents will happen, so I think the Dutch PM makes a valid point.

That said having just woken up to the latest developments I would say I think there's still a lot we don't know, hence the emphasised "if" in my opening sentence.

Just read the other thread, my word... that is why I always come to this thread first

It's crazy, full of bots I suspect. I think someone even referred to Zelenskyy as a turd

PMK for a less histrionic evaluation of the latest news.

Really interesting analysis of the results of the Bali G20. Sense that the Leader's Declaration is stronger than may have been expected, including explicit reference to 'Russian aggression'. Feeling is that Russia is far more isolated than it was before this meeting and that China has to a degree reset its relationship with the US and the West.

I know we aren't in Article 5 territory at this stage, but I was just musing. It requires unanimous agreement to invoke, and I suspect there would be some NATO members who would be reticent to make that decision (looking at you Turkey.)

Interesting to look at article 5 as many had and are still assuming Poland can just say we're invoking article 5 and then NATO comes in all guns blazing.

I disagree.

I can understand why the leader of an invaded country would describe a missile strike on a neighbouring country as deliberate. I think for Zelensky to have held back on this could have made him look weak and wishy-washy to his people. Ukrainians need to see and hear that he has their backs and so far he's doing a bloody good job.

It's for the leaders of other countries- particularly Poland to keep a clear head and respond in the best way for their country. The other countries need to respect and support the decisions of the leaders of the countries immediately affected.

This is less likely to put pressure on Ukraine to negotiate as it shows that regardless of intent, Russia has no respect for anyone's boundaries which means other countries need to remain firm on holding them, continuing to support each other in this. Britain's support of Ukraine is the one thing that this and previous governments have got right, now they need to step up again (I feel yet another letter to my MP being written).

Russias actions are increasingly reminding me of Germanys desperation at the end of wwii when they sent the v2 bombs with no regard for where they landed.

Absolutely. Article 5 is actually really nuanced.

Yes but if this turns out to be a Ukrainian missile that's gone off course which is looking like the like outcome. Accusing Russia of attacking a NATO country when it turns out was one of your own missiles can't be seen as positive.

Ukraine haven't I don't think.

They've sent sympathies.

And reality is they are using missiles with NATO consent to protect against Russian missiles

So this a) wouldn't be needed if Russia hadn't sent missiles yesterday afternoon b) spill over isn't actually a completely unexpected event c) Nato need to work with Ukraine to ensure better usage of the missiles they've authorised d) it may be appropriate to authoritise some kind of protocol / defensive mechanism for Poland to via Nato

Its a Nato problem regardless of who fired the missile.

@MissConductUS What is De Santis likely to be like on Ukraine and the rest of the world? Everything I am reading about him (even from outside the US) is about his attacks on "woke" culture and (previously) about his response on Covid, gun laws etc. none of which I might like but all of which are really domestic issues.

If he does get in - and certainly from an outsider's point of view it looks like if the Republicans put him up instead of Trump, and unless Trump really does do something even sillier like stand as an independent and split the vote, he would have a very strong chance of winning - especially if Biden stands again - how like Trump is he likely to be?

And what might the rest of the world expect from a De Santis presidency and in particular on the issues that we all care about?

Statement from Russian Defence Ministry in past few moments, key points:

• Russia says it carried out a massive attack on military targets and energy infrastructure in Ukraine on Tuesday.
• The strike achieved its goals.
• High-precision strikes were carried out only on Ukrainian territory and no closer than 35km (22 miles) from the Ukrainian-Polish border.
• Allegations of Russian missiles falling in the Polish village are a deliberate provocation to escalate the situation.
• Photos of the wreckage found in Poland are identified as elements of the Ukrainian S-300.

Clearly they are worried about escalation on the back of this. I suspect a fair few of them will be needing to change their underwear this morning....

I really do think that if NATO members thought for a moment this was a deliberate Russian attack, they would have been unequivocal in their acknowledgement.

Sky News reporting an interview with Ukrainian MP Kira Rudik where she acknowledged that it may have been a Ukrainian missile (whilst making the very valid point that they wouldn't have been firing missiles at all if it weren't for Russian actions). I suspect they would venomously deny it if there was a chance it wasn't a Ukrainian missile.

In other thoughts I think its vital to remember that this was one weapon that, sadly, killed 2 people. Yesterday many people will have been killed and injured in Ukraine and many others further traumatised. Ukraine the Latest yesterday focussed on the impact of the war on the children of Ukraine and the trauma, mental and otherwise, is absolutely horrific.

He added that "action is needed" following "Russian missile strikes on NATO territory".

The Ukrainian president described the development as a "significant escalation".

He said: "The longer Russia feels impunity, the more threats there will be to anyone within reach of Russian missiles. To fire missiles at NATO territory!

"This is a Russian missile attack on collective security! This is a very significant escalation. We must act."

This was what Zelenskey said last night.

Hopefully a silver lining in all this is that Russia shuts themselves and may rethink strikes close to the border.

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted the largest set of missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure since the start of the war, likely using a substantial portion of their remaining high-precision weapon systems.

Polish officials announced that a likely “Russian-made missile” landed in Poland within six kilometers of the international border with Ukraine.

Russian military commanders reportedly ignored existing plans for offensive operations in the Vuhledar direction and committed poorly trained reinforcements to costly assaults on Pavlivka out of impatience, generating continued criticism of Russian military leadership.

Russian officials continued to set conditions to force the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to recognize Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and thereby de facto recognize the Russian annexation of occupied Ukraine.

Russians are increasingly turning to various platforms on social media to express their dissatisfaction with mobilization problems, which could ignite organized online anti-war movements in Russia.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensives in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna, and Ukrainian forces continued targeting Russian logistics to the rear of Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.

Premature reports of Ukrainian forces capturing territory on the left bank of the Dnipro River provoked backlash in the Russian information space.

Russian logistics routes from Crimea into southern Ukraine are likely highly degraded.

Russian forces are continuing to supply their diminishing supplies with Belarusian military equipment.

Russian officials continued to minimize the role of proxy officials in occupied territories in favor of Russian officials.

+++

⚡️Zelensky outlines peace plan for Ukraine at G20 summit.
The plan envisages preventing ecocide in Ukraine, punishing those responsible for war crimes, withdrawing all Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine, restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity, and the release of all prisoners of war and deportees. The proposals also call for ensuring energy security, food security, and nuclear safety.

(the environment has been a huge loser in this war and it's not talked about very much)

⚡️ex-President Poroshenko ally Hranovsky wanted on corruption charges.

⚡️Banksy confirms creating 7 murals in Ukraine.
U.K. street artist Banksy has confirmed to The Art Newspaper that he has created seven murals in various locations in Ukraine, including Kyiv and two suburbs of the capital — Irpin and Borodianka.

⚡️ Part of Lviv left without electricity.
Lviv mayor Andriy Sadovyi said that part of the city is left without power. Immediately before, explosions were heard in the city.

⚡️ Russia’s Security Council Secretary calls to step up air defense, protect critical infrastructure.
Russia’s Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said Russia must bolster its air defense systems to protect critical infrastructure amid so-called “subversive activities” by Ukrainian reconnaissance groups at the border, Russian state-controlled media RIA Novosti said on Nov. 15. ( Right now I wish that Moscow was under the same bombardments as Kharkiv).

⚡️ Emergency blackouts introduced (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/emergency-blackouts-introduced-in-ukraine-following-new-russian-strikes) in Ukraine following new Russian strikes.
Authorities said that the situation was "critical" after Russsia hit energy infrastructure in the Nov. 15 attack.

⚡️ Air Force: Russia fires 100 missiles at Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/air-force-russian-troops-fire-100-missiles-at-ukraine).
Russia launched about 100 missiles at Ukrainian cities on Nov. 15 in its latest mass attack on critical infrastructure, according to Ukraine’s Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat.

⚡️ Russian strikes at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure cause mass power outages in Moldova.

⚡️ Energy Minister: Russia’s Nov. 15 strikes on Ukraine's energy system largest since start of war.
Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said Russian strikes on Nov. 15 targeted power generation and transmission facilities across the country, affecting both Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and those of neighboring states.

⚡️ Official: Ukraine’s air defense downs 70 Russian missiles.
Ukraine’s air defense downed 70 of the > 90 missiles launched by Russia at Ukraine, Deputy Head of the President’s Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko reported.
Tymoshenko said Russian strikes across Ukraine damaged 15 energy infrastructure sites.

⚡️ Rescuers save 566 miners trapped underground due to power outages in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Oleksandr Vilkul, the head of the Kryvyi Rih military administration, reported that miners were stuck underground due to energy cut-offs caused by Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
All miners were reportedly rescued after a four-hour operation. [This hasn't been much reported but that was a serious operation to rescue them ... And it puts future mining operations at severe risk]

⚡️ Media: Explosions kill 2 people in Poland amid Russian attacks on Ukraine.
Two people were killed during an explosion in Przewodow, Poland, on Nov. 15 near the Ukrainian border, reported AP

⚡️ Baltic nations express solidarity with Poland amid reports of explosions.

⚡️ Russian media: Ukraine stops transferring oil via Druzhba pipeline to Hungary.
Ukraine has “temporarily suspended” oil supply to Hungary through the Druzhba pipeline, Russian state-controlled media RIA Novosti said on Nov. 15, citing Russian state-owned pipeline operator Transneft.

⚡️ Mobile network operators warn of connection issues amid power outages in Ukraine.
Mobile network operators Vodafone Ukraine and Kyivstar said some Ukrainian cities may face network disruptions due to Russia’s mass attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure on Nov. 15.

⚡️ Zelensky: Russian missiles hit Poland, constitute ‘attack on collective security.’
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Nov. 15 that the explosions reported in Poland are caused by Russian missiles, noting that they constitute a “very significant escalation” by Russia. (now thought to be Ukrainian counter-attack missiles)

⚡️ UN Security Council to discuss Russia’s Nov. 15 mass strikes on Ukraine.
The UN Security Council will hold a meeting on Nov. 16 regarding Russia’s mass attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the UN Sergiy Kyslytsya said. [as if anything will be done by that talking shop, which Russia is also a member of]

⚡️ Stoltenberg: NATO ‘monitoring the situation’ regarding explosions in Poland.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Nov. 15 that he has spoken with Polish President Andrzej Duda.

⚡️Associated Press: White House asks for over $37 billion in emergency aid to Ukraine.
U.S. President Joe Biden is asking Congress to provide more than $37 billion in additional aid for Ukraine amid recent Russia's attacks on Nov. 15.
The proposed package reportedly includes $21.7 billion in defense aid to continue providing equipment to Ukraine and to replenish depleted U.S. stockpiles, $14.5 billion for direct budget support, $626 million to provide nuclear security support, and another $900 million for healthcare and support services.

⚡️Reuters: Poland considering NATO Article 4 activation, puts some of its military on high alert.
NATO ambassadors will meet on Nov. 16 at Poland's request, Reuters reports citing two European diplomats, following an explosion in Poland close to the Ukrainian border reportedly caused by a Russian-made missile. According to Article 4 of NATO's founding treaty, when a member state feels threatened by another country, the member states will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened."

⚡️Ukraine's military executes over 100 strikes against Russian forces in Ukraine's south, destroys 2 ammunition depots.

⚡️US sanctions companies, individuals involved in production, transfer of Iranian drones to Russia.
The sanctions target several aviation-related companies, including Shahed Aviation Industries Research Center, Success Aviation Services FZC and i Jet Global DMCC and two individuals – Abbas Djuma and Tigran Srabionov – who facilitated the Russian mercenary Wagner Group’s “acquisition of UAVs from Iran,” according to the department's statement.

⚡️CNN: NATO reportedly tracked missile that landed in Poland.
A NATO military official told CNN that the alliance's aircraft flying above Polish airspace on Nov. 15 tracked the missile that landed in the village of Przewodów. “Intel with the radar tracks [of the missile] was provided to NATO and Poland,” the NATO military official added.

⚡️Associated Press: Poland explosion might have been caused by Ukrainian forces firing at Russia's missile.

⚡️Ukrenergo warns (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrenergo-warns-of-hard-days-after-russias-biggest-attack-on-ukraines-energy-infrastructure) of 'hard days' after Russia's biggest attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, the head of Ukraine's state-owned grid operator Ukrenergo, said on Nov. 16 that there are several "hard days" ahead for Ukraine. As the weather is getting colder and the electricity consumption is growing, so will the load on the grid, Kudrytskyi said.

⚡️Reuters: G20 leaders’ declaration condemns (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-g-20-leaders-declaration-condemns-russias-war) Russia's war.
On the second day of the G20 summit, leaders of all member countries approved a declaration saying they “deplore in the strongest terms” Russia's war against Ukraine, Reuters reported, citing diplomatic sources.
However, according to Al Jazeera, the statement acknowledged “there were other views and different assessments” and said the G20 is “not the forum to resolve security issues.”