Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

I think the Polish situation is a wait and see one. It might be a Russian missile that went wrong, a deliberate strike to see what transpires, a Ukrainian one that went wrong... and so on. The Russian social media photo-analysts are flooding the virtual swamp with 'proofs' that the debris is Ukrainian, but I have to say that it's like saying 'here's a picture of YOUR glove and here's the fingers cut off A glove... so it was YOU'.

twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1592629485098369025
NEW: Footage reported to show the immediate aftermath of the explosion in Poland today

I still read these threads, haven't participated as much in recent memory, but checking back in now as a welcome antidote to the absolute lunacy on the other thread.

Just done a quick wind back and can't see any Sentries, but this PM there were at least two KC-135s on towlines east of Warsaw, presumably refuelling something(s) that never revealed themselves.

There was also a USAF Rivett Joint that spent hours in eastern Romanian airspace trundling north - south and back again , with Constanta at the southern end of the pattern.

A little more from discussions I had today. Image has some snipping out as it concerned specific identifying family things.

We also discussed how when the war came everyone just forgot about COVID. Dying from a bomb or a rocket would tend to be more instant. Also, how life is closer to normal in Odessa and Lviv, while the infrastructure is so broken in the east where she is. There is clearly a pulling together where she is, but it is not something that is 100%. There are elements out to exploit people and what she calls 'marauders' who she finds scary.

Huginn - Odin's Raven AT BrianK_PSM
Ru military screwed up - my bet someone got the longitude entry wrong whilst setting the targetting co-ordinates; 20minutes longitude (1/3 of a degree) to the east is chervonohrad

Wrong targetting co-ords is the only logical explanation cause Przewodow is a small farming village in the middle of agricultural area - nearest potential targets are 12-15 mile away chervonohrad rail yard or the road crossing at uhryniv.

Omg. That thread is a collective meltdown.

I can't work out if it's bots trying to wind us all up, regular trolls, genuine hysteria, or an unholy combination of the 3. It's a tyre fire, though.

Thanks for checking. SIGINT from the Rivet Joint would be helpful but not as determinative as active radar tracking. Hopefully, the tankers were refueling Sentries or similar.

I think we all need to take a deep breath and wait until the missile wreckage is analyzed. That should not take long.

Went to other thread in curiosity.....🤯

Utter batshit.

Me too. The nutters are out on that one, and it's getting nasty.

Probably massively stating the obvious but hadnt realised just how close to the border this was, only 4 miles. Surely a fuck up.

05:50am in Bali and they all seem to be up & tweeting at the G20, I might leave my phone alerts on tonight...

Interesting/handy that a lot of the decision makers seem to be in the same location, it'll make for some conversation over breakfast.

*Huginn - Odin's Raven AT BrianK_PSM
Ru military screwed up - my bet someone got the longitude entry wrong....

Wrong targetting co-ords is the only logical explanation.."*

No it's not, it's really not

Problem now is were getting into the competitive phase of the investigation (same happens in air accidents) where all the "experts" with access to social media start chucking out theories and by virtue of the infinite number of monkeys theories somebody will end up being right and looking good in hind site.

Yes finger trouble with data entry is one possible explanation, but so is a bad chip in the guidance system, a stuffed up bearing in a gyro or...or......

Statement from the Polish PM expected at 11pm UK, I was just about to go to bed...

Long time lurker 👀 thanks to all contributors, I’m going to avoid the ‘other’ thread 🫣

Sky News saying the Poles are saying it's a Russian rocket and have summoned the ambassador.

Where is this reported? Was also just about to hit the sack.

Twitter here twitter.com/jakubkrupa/status/1592652431489634304?s=46&t=UT1RFOCBjLzUxWFeMT9Xtw

I'm going to give it a few more minutes then go to bed (but with phone not on silent!)

I think the fact that they've all been woken up in Bali (G20) is moving things on a bit, Sky News much busier in the last 15 mins or so as Poland starts speaking to the folks in Bali.

Why do these things always happen late at night?! Reminds me of our skiing holiday being in a massively uncomfortable bed in our chalet at 4am listening quietly to the news when this all started...

Anyway, night all, let's hope things are still ok in the morning.

Oh and Trump is making his 'big announcement' at 2am UK. Joy 🙄

To catch the print run.

It will be fine. I'm relaxed about it at this stage.

Yes I think it'll be ok, night night.

I trust you and to hear you say that makes me feel less nervous. Appreciate greatly your sensible but realistic posts.