Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

Me too. I agree with @RedToothBrush - if you want to provoke a response there are plenty of other, higher value, targets. Looks like an accident to me, either Russian missile or Ukrainian defence - which is ultimately Russia's fault, as no-one would be firing off anti-missile thingie-ma-bobs (not a technical term) if they weren't slinging missiles around.

Not panicking just yet.

According to Twitter Polish President is now speaking to Joe Biden. All talk seems to be of invoking article 4

I think it's going to be ok. I mean it's far from ok, all of it, but I don't think that things will get particularly worse...

I agree.NATO and western response currently very measured. Media (and parts of Mumsnet) less so. Not sure my blood pressure can take much more.

I hate Putin.

Sorry, I have read it when posted but could somebody please explain what article 4 would involve exactly?

www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htm

Basically a consultation phase.

Thank you @Igotjelly

I really can’t see Russia choosing right now to open up a front with NATO. Right after a setback, when the west is crowing over it’s military weakness, when it looks like Ukraine is turning the tide. Nor I think would it do so in an obscure place and manner. Neither for international nor domestic markets.

For idiots like me who need things simplified Sky News live feed has a handy explainer posted 5 mins ago. I’m too inept digitally to link as its on the app or I would 😂

Talks...

"Article 4

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened."

Reading that suddenly reminded me of the old (cold war forces) joke about what the initials NATO actually stood for....(some here may know the answer)

Actually on days like today I think I'd quite like my old Cold War back....................

I lie it was the Guardian.

Great! Bring on art 5. We'll send in the Worzels and a battalion of John Deere and Massey Ferguson.

That'll fucking terrify them.

Better still, stick Jezza on the lead tractor shouting "I Did A Thing!" followed by a combine harvester.

@Igotjelly I can never link them either. Thanks, will take a look. I definitely fall into the idiots who need things simplified category!

If I were going to do something deliberate would I pick when Biden, Sunak, Macron and Scholz are all in the same place as my best moment?

Hmm let me think about this.

This might link to The Guardian!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/15/russia-ukraine-war-live-news-updates-kherson-victory-marks-beginning-of-end-of-russian-war-zelenskiy-says?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

Thanks for that, @notimagain. Clueless here re the NATO initials joke!

It did perfectly, thanks!

It does, you’re clever than me thank you

Reports it was a KH 101mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1592635688583069696

We used to joke in the very olden days that it stood for "No Action, Talk Only"....

I think fortunately times have changed.

So Russian then?

BBC news seem quite happy to say it's Russian at 10pm but saying Moscow strongly deny it, which of course they would.

Yet other reports also based on people looking at the images say it's a Ukraine S-300.

twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1592629251161075712?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1592629251161075712%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

Hopefully the real int people will get a look at the metal, and the politicians aren' rushing to believe Twitter..

Sky News:

"Matt Tait, a cyber intelligence and national security expert who previously worked for Britain's GCHQ, has cast further doubt on the notion any Russian missile strike on Poland might have been intentional - a situation which would likely trigger a major escalation in the conflict.
He points to Russia's denial of responsibility (see 19.56 post) and suggests Moscow would have taken credit for any attack if it were deliberate.
"I am very sceptical this was an intentional strike or signal," he said.
"Not to say it wasn't very bad (if confirmed) or will get some kind of response (tho likely a much more limited response than most folks expect either way)."

Meeting Under Article 4 to take place tomorrow.

This is drifting over into @notimagain's lane, but my understanding is yes. AWAC system equipped planes can simultaneously track hundreds of airborne targets, and it's all recorded for later analysis.

AWAC

notim, can you check on one of the air traffics websites if any RAF or USAF Sentry aircraft were in the area earlier today? They usually fly with transponders on, correct?

NATO might also respond by giving Ukraine ATACMS and letting them attack the launch site.