Ukraine Invasion: Part 35

[MagicFox]

We're still here, on 35 🇺🇦

It's like chuffing Whack a Mole over there ATM...

I think some of us have needed at least two devices , two pairs of eyes and four hands this evening....

I agree, I hope they delete it. I’ve dipped my toes and quickly left.

That other thread is bonkers. Thank you for calm and reasoning.

Same.

I am going to have to come off it before I really lose my shit.

I can see Poland beefing up defences and quietly adding air support on the border that may pre-emptively deal with missiles on Ukraine's side of the fence, with their agreement.

I don't think we are at WW3 yet.

This comes at a time when there was rising pressure from the west on Ukraine to start considering talks.

It also comes at a time when Putin was hoping to see cracks in the alliance due to the cost of living.

The effect of a Russian missile (and we do not know yet if that is the case) is to likely strengthen Western resolve.

Its not a big enough event to allow Nato troops in Ukraine. Why? Well for starters we know the casualty rate is huge. How well did deaths in Afghanistan and Iraq go down with domestic audiences? The scale of losses would be significantly higher.

This option isn't open to anyone just yet. The Polish will be aware of that. And know that themselves too. Politically we just aren't at that level of crisis.

Its more likely that its going to make it more likely to renew pressure on Russia. G20 is still ongoing. China are already growing steadily more uneasy.

Its a moment. But its certainly not The Moment.

Nato will make calculations about the stage of the war and whether its worthwhile strategically to intervene with boots at this point too. Arguably with Ukraine doing so well, it's just not worthwhile. Russia are demonstrably imputent militarily atm. If the US do step in, it feeds the narrative of American Imperialism and thats actually more likely to bring in antiwestern players. Atm they are being squeezed diplomatically and that's more worthwhile to the west.

Its one of these where you don't give up the opportunity for your enemy to make their own mistakes. Indeed jumping in could shoot yourself in the foot unintentionally.

Are you basing that on Putins entirely rational responses and actions so far?

You really don't think Russia would try and attack weapons conveys in around the Polish border?

...but yet we are all scared he would use a nuclear weapon..

I seem to remember also being told it was ridiculous to expect the West to give Ukraine hi end anti aircraft/missile systems as they would 6months to train up on... well that was about 6 months ago.....

Shame Ukraine hasn't got them now, instead of no power, water and sewage.

There are other opinions that are as equally valid as yours, even if you do always think yours is the only one.

I genuinely think that IF this a Russian rocket then the point has come that containment is necessary.

It does, obviously, need to be ascertained that it really was Russian and not for instance the remains of something shot down by Ukrainians

Some people seem to think that it fell directly on the power transmission lines that connect the EU with the Ukraine. If that is accurate then I simply don't believe it was an accident given how intensively Russia has been targetting Ukrainian electrical infrastructure.

I'm aware that it's something of a no-win situation.

1. it will be found to be Russian and culpably so, or deliberate. Which may = war.
2. it will be found to be an accident and allowed to slide - Russian-caused deaths in Poland. No action.
3. It will be found to be the remains of a Russian missile shot down by Ukrainians. In that case - that's also what you could expect NATO to say to avoid escalation.

So many deaths. So many deaths, in Ukraine and in Chechnya and in Syria, and now two in Poland. The Kremlin and the uncontrolled psychopaths in Russian leadership need exterminatin.

Actually @RedToothBrush 's analysis is accurate and based on good reasoning.

(I'm jsut so ANGRY about all these deaths tonight. Sorry if I went off the deep end. )

Understandably angry ❤️ sure we can forgive you in these circumstances 😉

I feel distinctly embarrassed and guilty that I’m letting myself be scared shitless by something that may/may not impact me when Ukrainians are dying and suffering every day.

Poland currently verifying the facts before deciding to invoke article 4.

Pretty much what I would expect.

Yes Jens Stoltenberg tweeting similar, condolences to families of those who have been killed, important to establish the facts holding statement...

Dreadful situation!

What do I know but I'm sure it's an accident or the air missile system.
However,it does put the good world on a strange footing because they need to seem strong without escalation!

🌷

Whilst I think any public posturing or action is important, what will be more important is what will undoubtedly be going on behind the scenes. The recent US/Russia meeting in Turkey points to both sides genuinely wanting to avoid escalation, as such I really can’t see military action on the back of this from NATO. I’m also not sure what military benefit there could really be in NATO boots on the ground just now.

I do wonder if we’ll see less concern around equipping Ukraine with longer range missiles.

This is exactly the sort of situation that makes direct military hotlines so important.

Ukraine has got hi end anti aircraft/missile systems from the West.

I’m also not sure what military benefit there could really be in NATO boots on the ground just now.

It wouldn't be boots on the ground. If this was deliberate, I think the launch site might be attacked.

.

That’s really helpful, how would they know where the launch site was? Is it possible to narrow it down given there were 100+ missiles fired in this barrage?

The effect of doing this would be to unify Nato.

Russia has been trying to do the opposite. It was hoping for a red wave in the US elections (rumours are the withdrawal from Kherson was timed to be after this) and its hoping that cold weather will weaken government resolve around Europe as domestic pressure grow to force Ukraine into a resolution to the conflict.

Why attack a convoy in Poland when you can track it by satellite and do the same within Ukraine?

You also are crediting Russia with the ability to fly a missile or drone over the entirety of Ukraine (without getting shot down) and then hit a moving convoy with a fine degree of accuracy at this stage of the war.

Logic dictates you'd hit something static. But if you hit an airbase on Polish soil, believe me we'd already be getting one of those BBC breaking moments by now...

Russia, despite popular opinion, are not insane. Putin is rational. This hasn't slipped. And whilst he might be increasingly desperate there has to be a strategic advantage in hitting a convoy on Polish soil. Not a singular benefit of getting rid of one convoy. You need something a bit more worthwhile to take a gamble.

This does however provide a nice dead cat for those Russian pundits. And whilst they are talking about this, they are talking about Russians abandoning Olesky or Nova Kakhovka. Or Svatove mass surrenders or bullets in the back. Or stalemate at Bakhmut. Or the daily liberation of Pavlivka. But that's about it.

For all the talk. Putin's logic is warped and often misguided (thanks to his yes men and corrupt buddies) but he's also not stupid either.

Think logical here.

What does Putin actually gain by x move?

If Putin wants to provoke as response, you think a deliberate attack on a farm in buttfuck nowhere Poland is really the preferred target? "I know. We'll get the tractors. That'll show 'em how 'ard we are!"

FFS. Get a grip.

Ukraine asking for fighter jets in response to be delivered, that I can see happening.

I am actually remarkably calm about this. I think I had mentally long prepared for this type of scenario.

Good post red until the end, which escalates the tone of the thread.

Re Putin targeting tractors, actually, tractors have been a big symbol early on in the war and it could be construed as a message.