Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

Thanks for the thread and all the thoughtful contributers. I tend to come here for balanced insight as I don't think it is easily accessible elsewhere.

Just listening to Ukraine the Latest from yesterday and I was struck by their reporter on the ground's feedback about the situation in Kyiv. He was describing the sense of community that there is there, for example when the air raid sirens go off people not only making sure they themselves get to shelter but also leaving their doors open so that others can use their shelter. Humanity seems to be the constant thread that runs through this all, and something that the Ukrainian people really should be applauded for.

They were also discussing Sir Jeremy Flemming's speech yesterday. Takeaway is that this should be seen as a fairly standard speech that is given once or twice a year. What they did draw attention to what his comments around intel that the Russian people are losing faith in Putin's 'war of choice' and that this could prove fatal for him - their view was that the Director of GCHQ doesn't make comments like this lightly and it will be based on hard evidence. He described Putin as "isolated and making mistakes".

Morning - am place marking.

Thank you for new thread, you are all so informed, I am constantly reassured.

Excellent analysis from CNN’s Jake Tapper.

@MagicFox and @Fladdermus and anyone else, I've checked back and all the threads are still there. Up until thread 9 they didn't have Ukraine in the title, but the word 'invasion' (always, I think). But every single thread has a link to the thread before - except thread two which appears to mistakenly have a link to itself! So I haven't found thread one yet.
We definitely must not let them disappear - @mnhq this is really important, could you please archive the whole series somewhere safe? It's not just the threads themselves but the wealth of important links contained within.

Here's thread two.

www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4491025-The-Invasion-Continues

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Ukraine War: Prof Michael Clarke answers your questions

Recorded yesterday. Love his insights and expertise.

First one is here www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4489831-The-invasion-has-begun?page=1

Thanks for finding it @Natsku.
And best wishes to Finland, while I'm here - I have a very old friend living in Oulu.

Yeah, I completely get where Volodymyr Demchenko aka @ brokenpixuela is coming from, re not counting chickens before they're hatched.

I've been slightly guilty of this myself, by thinking about the possibilities of a post-Putin Russia and a post-liberation Ukraine. But neither are a given.

Ukraine absolutely cannot afford to take its foot off the gas. It's fighting for survival and, though doing well, there are no guarantees it will win. And even if it does win, for individual Ukrainians there are no guarantees that they and their families will survive to see that.

Respect to Demchenko and all those engaged in surviving, resisting and repelling the invasion.

Good work @heldinadream and @Natsku !

Just looking at the first thread. Feels like a lifetime ago. Lots of posters you don't see anymore too, which is a shame.

Four additional HIMARS vehicles have arrived in Ukraine. You may have heard recently that 18 more were being provided. Those have been ordered from Lockheed and will take a year or two to be delivered. These four were taken from the US inventory.

twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1579935298225831937

During the recent offensive in Kherson, four HIMARS were used to provide tactical artillery support to great effect.

Great thread magicfox very concise and to the point.

Thanks @MagicFox - I really value these threads and I do think they should be kept somewhere safe as a record and witnessing to this extraordinary and terrible year, and to the good things too, the bravery of Ukrainians and the intelligence and helpfulness of so many posters. A really remarkable document could be compiled from them at some point in the future. We must make sure they're preserved.

In one respect, they can't stop it unless they plan to undo the Internet. Global trade is not just about Government sanctions or trade agreements (although they are helpful). It's millions of small choices made daily by consumers and businesses. Today, for example, I am working with teams in Singapore, America, South Africa and the UK. I buy foodstuffs from Kenya, Argentina, Italy and Germany. I think there are very few countries that can reverse that tide or even want to.

However, by the same token, we can't allow one or two big actors to dominate certain sectors. We've seen it before with the 1970s oil crisis and today with the Russian pipelines. It's been lazy thinking to outsource something so fundamental and hope for the best. So, certain things that are required for life - energy, food, water - will need national control. You are also going to see a lot of 'green diplomacy' in the next decade as China, India, the EU and America attempt to woo business across the globe in an effort to boost manufacturing back home.

Vitaly Shevchenko speaking on Newscast yesterday. He summarised that the warnings from the Ukrainian Govt to the people about stocking up on essentials (such as water and food) and how to get through blackouts and power cuts is new and worrying in the light of the fact that winter is fast approaching.

He reflects that the feeling in Kyiv and other big cities is similar to the early days of the invasion, there is a sense of anticipation but that the fear is gone. Its been replaced by pragmatism.

Just realised I posted the updates on the old thread so:

ISW

Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted massive missile strikes across Ukraine for the second day in a row.

Army General Sergey Surovikin’s previous experience as commander of Russian Armed Forces in Syria is likely unrelated to the massive wave of missile strikes across Ukraine over the past few days, nor does it signal a change in the trajectory of Russian capabilities or strategy in Ukraine.

The Russian Federation is likely extracting ammunition and other materiel from Belarusian storage bases, which is incompatible with the notion that Russian forces are setting conditions for a ground attack against Ukraine from Belarus.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensives east of the Oskil River and in the direction of Kreminna-Svatove.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops continued ground attacks in northern and western Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian forces are continuing an interdiction campaign to target Russian military, technical, and logistics assets and concentration areas in Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces continued to conduct ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast.

Russian reporting of explosions in Dzhankoy, Crimea, indicated panic over losing further logistics capabilities in Crimea following the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion.

Russian federal subjects are announcing new extensions and phases of mobilization in select regions, which may indicate that they have not met their mobilization quotas.

Russian and occupation administration officials continue to conduct filtration activities in Russian-occupied territories.

+++

⚡️ Russia hits thermal plant in Vinnytsia Oblast twice, injures 6 people.

⚡️ Energoatom: Russia kidnaps Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant's deputy head.
Russian troops have kidnapped Valerii Martyniuk, deputy head of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, holding him in an unknown place and allegedly torturing him, according to state nuclear company Energoatom
Russian forces are trying to get information about the plant staff from Martyniuk "to force (the plant's) personnel to work for (Russia's nuclear corporation) Rosatom as soon as possible," Energoatom stated.

⚡️ Ukrainians crowdfund about $10 million for kamikaze drones in 1 day.

Russian media: Putin, Erdogan to discuss Ukraine.

⚡️Spiegel: Ukraine receives German IRIS-T air defense system.
According to the German magazine Der Spiegel, the first of the four new IRIS-T SLM air defense systems arrived in Ukraine via Poland.

Zelensky asks for international observers on Belarus border, offers 'peace formula.'
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-asks-for-international-observers-on-belarus-border-offers-peace-formula)

Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk earlier said that Russia currently has 2,500 Ukrainian POWs.

⚡️UN Secretary-General aims to prolong grain deal for a year.
Antonio Guterres and his team are working on an expanded Black Sea Grain Initiative, Ukraine Agricultural Ministry reported citing Stephane Dujarric, a spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General

⚡️US works to expedite delivery of 2 NASAMS air defense systems to Ukraine.

G7 leaders vow to hold Putin to account. (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/g-7-leaders-vow-to-hold-putin-to-account)
Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) condemned Russia’s widespread missile attacks on Ukraine after an extraordinary G7 summit led by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

⚡️Minister: Russia has struck about 30% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure since Oct. 10.

⚡️Germany, Norway, and Denmark to buy 16 Zuzana howitzers for Ukraine. The artillery systems will be produced in the Slovak Republic with a preliminary delivery in 2023

💛 Another 37 children deported by the occupiers returned home, the Ministry of Reintegration reported
“At the end of August, children were forcibly taken from the Kharkiv region to the Russian city of Kabardinka (near Gelendzhik), despite the fact that they all have parents

📣 Russia's victory in the conflict in Ukraine will be a defeat for NATO, and this cannot be allowed — Secretary General of the Alliance Jens Stoltenberg
In addition, he noted that NATO has not yet seen any signs of Russia preparing a nuclear strike.

All six power units have been switched off at ZNPP, the occupiers are forcing employees to sign contracts with Rosatom
The occupiers apply the so-called "filtering measures" to some of the personnel and members of their families. Workers are required to formalize Russian passports and sign contracts with Rosatom.

🔺 Russia has ordered 2,400 Shahed kamikaze drones from Iran — Zelensky at the G7 meeting

🔎 Political scientist and founder of the Eurasia Group consulting company Ian Bremmer said that Elon Musk told him about his phone conversation with Putin before posting a "peace plan" for Ukraine on Twitter

🍷 Russian retail chains have almost exhausted their stocks of elite alcohol, – Igor Karavaev, Chairman of the Presidium of the Association of Retail Trade Companies of the Russian Federation

💔 Oksana Leontieva was killed yesterday in Kyiv by a Russian missile
Oksana was going to work at the Okhmatdit hospital.
She was an oncologist, a bone marrow transplant specialist. She had been saving children’s lives for 11 years.

🛥 Russia lost three-fifths of its offshore oil sales to Europe after it sent troops to Ukraine in February – Bloomberg

📣 “It will take months to repair the Lviv thermal power plants destroyed by Russia,” Mayor Andriy Sadovyi said during a briefing

🔎 General Staff: The Belarusian authorities removed the first batch of 20 T-72 tanks from storage and sent them to Russia. The defense industry complex of Belarus is already involved in the repair of Russian equipment damaged during combat operations

‘The Russian Federation is likely extracting ammunition and other materiel from Belarusian storage bases, which is incompatible with the notion that Russian forces are setting conditions for a ground attack against Ukraine from Belarus.‘

Can anyone explain this please? Why would it be incompatible?

Perhaps they're moving them to the east and south where the battles are ongoing.

The feeling was that a Russian/Belarus combined force might open up a new front with an attack towards Kyiv, the fact that firepower/tanks etc are being moved out of Belarus towards existing front lines makes this look less likely.

Thank you for the hew thread MagicFox

Ijsbear - Today 09:59

💔 Oksana Leontieva was killed yesterday in Kyiv by a Russian missile
Oksana was going to work at the Okhmatdit hospital.
She was an oncologist, a bone marrow transplant specialist. She had been saving children’s lives for 11 years.

TRIGGER It is heartbreaking too for the reason that she had a little child she’d just dropped off at nursery school. This was on the news last night.

His father died six months ago according to this account.
mobile.twitter.com/home

I don't know whether the Mass Observation Society is still

Ah thanks Desdemonas/Mice.

The element I had failed to infer was that the stuff was being moved towards existing front lines. That explains it.