Ukraine Invasion: Part 29

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, part 29

@ScrollingLeaves well thank you for that. China going in covertly or overtly would be a nightmare.

Also @katem98 thank you for that too!! That sort of makes sense, what I'd seen was that criminals in N Serbia fired at Kosovan police, but under the orders of Vucic.

The Serbian conflict and what happened there makes the Russian soldiers look relatively disciplined and restrained. The idea of -that- going up in flames again plus China and Taiwan would be enough to charter a Mumsnet rocket to Mars.

A firm response from NATO was just what was needed to keep things from blowing up I think

@Ijsbear Makes sense. I wish there was a lovely little planet where peaceful people could just hop on a rocket and migrate, I'd buy tickets in a heartbeat!

Also looks like Kosovo government has accepted a request for a 30 day delay of the implementation of deal regarding the entry documents and licence plates.

First ship with grain left Odessa today.

I agree @katem98 ! I'd move there with you!

Reports suggest Pelosi will visit Taiwan tomorrow night so this is all a bit hairy and I just hope China show restraint

Please let it pass safely all the way to its destination. Please please please.

Key Takeaways

The Kremlin has not responded to the International Red Cross (ICRC) request to access the Olenivka prison as of July 31, hindering the international investigation efforts.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest and northwest of Izyum, consistent with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces may be setting conditions for advances northwest of the current Izyum-Slovyansk line.

Russian forces continued ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk, northeast of Siversk, and to the east and south of Bakhmut.

Russian forces made marginal gains in the Avdiivka area and continued ground attacks towards Avdiivka and Pisky.

Russian authorities began recruiting volunteers for the Nevsky and Ladoga Battalions in Leningrad Oblast, Russia.

Russian occupation authorities continued to prepare for a referendum in Kherson Oblast and took measures to depict support for Russian control of the occupied territories.

+++

⚡️Minister: First ship carrying 26,000 tons of corn leaves Odesa port.
Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov reported on the morning of Aug. 1 that the ship left Odesa as part of a UN-backed deal to unblock Ukraine's Black Sea ports and secure a safe corridor for grain and other food export. The official added that there are another 16 vessels waiting their turn.

⚡️ Latvian media: Latvia suspends simplified border crossing for neighboring Russian regions.

The Kyiv Independent, [01/08/2022 02:38]
⚡️ Ukrainian forces destroy 15 ammunition depots in southern Ukraine in past weeks.
Natalia Humeniuk, the spokesperson for the joint southern command of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, reported that Ukraine destroyed 15 ammunition depots and several bridges, including the Antonivskyi Bridge in Kherson Oblast, over the past few weeks.

⚡️ Russia attacks more civilian than military targets since start of war.
According to Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, Russia has attacked civilian targets 60 times more than military targets - 17,300 attacks on civilian and 300 on military objects

⚡️ Institute for the Study of War: Russian forces resume ground attacks in eastern Ukraine.
The U.S. think tank reported on July 31 that Russian forces resumed ground attacks northwest of Sloviansk and southwest of Izium.
They may also be “setting conditions” for an offensive into Kharkiv Oblast and towards Kharkiv

⚡️Russian troops reinforce positions in the direction of Kryviy Rih, carry out attacks throughout Donetsk Oblast.

🇺🇦Sting stopped the concert in Warsaw to support Ukraine
“The war in Ukraine is an absurdity built on lies. If we swallow this lie, it will eat us. But lies are terribly afraid of the truth. The truth must be heard. We cannot lose this battle," right from the stage.

🔎 Instead of rotation, Russian servicemen are sent on vacation to the Henichesk district of the Kherson region, – Deputy of the Kherson Regional Council Serhii Khlan
“The invaders are placed at the bases of the Arabat Spit, where they are offered to rest for several weeks, and then they are sent back to battle. The command fears that the soldiers will scatter if they are allowed to leave for the Crimea,” Khlan said.

📌 Ukraine demands Russia to return a third of the foreign property of the former USSR, – Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK Vadym Prystaiko in an interview with Suspilne

Off the coast of Romania, military divers discovered and defused a sea mine, – the Romanian Ministry of Defense. A drifting sea mine of the small anchor type was discovered on the evening of July 31 in Romanian territorial waters – about 2 nautical miles (3.6 km) from the coast of Romania, opposite the resort of Efori.

Please let it make it safely along the agreed shipping corridor to its destination Tripoli, Lebanon. The (free) world's hopes and prayers are with it.

It is supposed to arrive tomorrow 2 Aug. Looks like the safe passage of the shipments are being jointly co-ordinated by Turkey. Amazingly the cargoes are insured by Lloyds of London. Imagine the cost of the premium on that.

My fingers are crossed and recrossed.

mobile.twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1554095299991375872 Russia claims to have destroyed 2 HIMARS

And shows a video of a missile hitting the second floor of an office building, which is naturally where the Ukrainians would hide them.

They are such piss poor liars.

I know some of the comments are hysterical

are they up to 15 HIMARS destroyed by now?

I think this is internal disinformation. Putin says to the generals, "Destroy the HIMARS, or there will be consequences!". The generals say to the colonels, "Destroy the HIMARS, or there will be consequences!". Eventually, someone reports "success" to avoid being sent to the gulag or Kherson with a rifle in their hands.

As long as we're on the topic of HIMARS (aka "Lockheed's magic finger of death 😀) the four that the Pentagon said were on the way recently have arrived.

mobile.twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1554076054435889152

I think that brings the total to 20, plus 9 of the larger M270s.

And some German heavy stuff, can't remember its name now. But they have arrived too.

I hope they -maintain- them!! there were reports that some heavy artillery is already out of action because of overuse.

MARS II & Gepard deliveries, that was it.

Procurator General of Ukraine Andriy Kostin said that the cause of the explosion in Olenivka, where Ukrainian prisoners of war were kept, was a Russian thermobaric weapon.

"On Monday, Mr Putin wrote to the same non-proliferation conference Mr Guterres opened, declaring that "there can be no winners in a nuclear war and it should never be unleashed".
But Russia still found itself criticised at the NPT conference."

Would you read this as what Putin had said or what Guterres had said? Been a long day at work and I'm not fully functioning!

The Russian savages. Utter brutes. What a horrible way to kill the Ukr POWs. Burnt to death whilst locked in their barracks. Even a HIMAR strike would be better. Imagine the terror. I hope they all died instantaneously in their sleep, but I fear not. Nobody deserves to die like this, except those who set this up.

I wish Ukraine gets the 100 HIMARS and other heavy artillery they asked for and all the ammo, spare parts and maintenance crew that goes with it.

Putin’s words, I read elsewhere.
Which gives me concern given the Russian habit of saying the opposite of what they mean.

I wish Ukraine gets the 100 HIMARS and other heavy artillery they asked for and all the ammo, spare parts and maintenance crew that goes with it.

I understand and agree with the sentiment, but there simply isn't a way to supply enough ammo for 100 HIMARS. One unit can fire enough rockets in a day to fill an entire military transport plane. They have to be reserved for high-value targets that can't be hit any other way.

Looking at the positive, they've just gotten four more. Think back to all of the havoc the first four caused for the Russians. And they're not an answer to every challenge. Taking back Russian held territory will take tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and lots of other equipment that has to go through the logistical pipeline.

The UAF now has the Russians reacting to them. This is priceless strategically. They have the upper hand, and the Russians know it.

Thread from Mick Ryan on Ukraine the strategy of corrosion mobile.twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1553973368809918464

I don't know enough to know if he is right but I hope so

Lawrence Freedman (very respected Emeritus Prof of warfare) called Mick Ryan something along the lines of the most perceptive analyst of what's going on atm.

Thanks @Ijsbear that's good to know.

You rather take things on faith with Twitter and the tendency is to let your own prejudices make you believe what you want to be true and ignore what you don't want to believe. All of this has made me realise what I don't know and I really want to educate myself