Ukraine Invasion: Part 29

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, part 29

[MagicFox]

Twitter tells me that Russian media is reporting an assassination attempt on Patrushev

[Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway]

Slight aside: I went cinema today and the adverts started with an ad for the Royal Navy immediately followed by an ad for the royal airforce and a couple ads later an ad for the army. I don’t think I’ve ever seen armed forces ads at the cinema, don’t think I’ve ever seen them in a row on tv/radio either. Does anyone know if we have scrapped the idea of further reducing numbers of people in our armed forces now?

[AskingQuestionsAllTheTime]

ukrainetoday.org/2022/07/18/putins-possible-successor-patrushev-poisoned-media/

[blueshoes]

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime

ukrainetoday.org/2022/07/18/putins-possible-successor-patrushev-poisoned-media/

Supposedly rat poison. How fitting.

[Natsku]

Thanks for the new thread.

Disgraceful of Switzerland. Providing medical care for the wounded does not affect neutrality at all (not that anyone should be neutral in this particular case)

[Ijsbear]

Apparently switzerland are giving humanitarian aid to German hospitals for Ukrainian wounded but not accepting any wounded themselves.

NOthing must get in the way of the money.

[Hillsmakeyoustrong]

My sil lives in Switzerland and is hosting Ukranian guests in her home. They came with 30 other guests, by bus, to their small town and now live together all split across private homes. I say this to point out the obvious, that private individuals are not the same as the government.

[ScrollingLeaves]

@Hillsmakeyoustrong · Today 23:46
My sil lives in Switzerland and is hosting Ukranian guests in her home. They came with 30 other guests, by bus, to their small town and now live together all split across private homes. I say this to point out the obvious, that private individuals are not the same as the government.

That is a nice antidote.

[katem98]

Thanks for the new thread @MagicFox

[MagicFox]

Interesting shirt piece on British-US relations beyond Ukraine


www.geostrategy.org.uk/britains-world/british-american-relations-beyond-ukraine/

[MagicFox]

Summary of the current Tory leader candidates positions on the UK's global posture esp re Russia and China

www.geostrategy.org.uk/britains-world/britains-global-posture-what-prospective-conservative-leaders-think/


Summary of the recent Integrated Review that sets out "a vision for Britain in the world and set objectives and priorities for the coming decade." Advocates for a proactive Britain that shapes the world order rather than solely defending it

www.geostrategy.org.uk/britains-world/the-war-against-ukraine-and-the-integrated-review/

[Ijsbear]

Personally I think the UK would be better off trying to set its own house in order. And govern to improve the standard of people's lives, education and health instead of leeching them dry so the Tories can get elected by big business.

[Ijsbear]

Key Takeaways


The Russian Ministry of Defense’s meeting with the leadership of the Eastern grouping of forces in Ukraine suggests that the Kremlin will not focus on seizing Slovyansk at this stage of the campaign but will instead prioritize attempting to seize Siversk and Bakhmut.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s likely effort to put the burden of supporting operations in Ukraine on ethnic minorities to avoid conducting a general mobilization of ethnic Russians may be sparking resistance in ethnic enclaves in Russia.

Russian forces conducted a series of ground attacks east of Siversk and south of Bakhmut.

Russian forces intensified efforts to advance on Avdiivka and conducted limited ground assaults along the Donetsk City-Avdiivka frontline.

Russian authorities are continuing to integrate occupied areas into the Russian trade economy.

+++

kyivindependent.com/politics/explainer-whats-behind-zelenskys-public-ousting-of-top-officials

⚡️ US to keep sharing intelligence with Ukraine despite changes to Zelensky’s inner circle. The U.S. State Department says it will continue to provide Ukraine with intelligence amid President Volodymyr Zelensky’s decision to replace top personnel, including Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova and Security Service Head Ivan Bakanov.

⚡️ EU to open accession talks with Albania, North Macedonia.
The 27 EU member states agreed on July 18 to open accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia, which have been pending since 2020.

⚡️ Ukraine’s military destroys 2 ammunition depots in southern Ukraine.


⚡️ Fitch Ratings declares Belarus in default.
Fitch Ratings downgraded Belarus’ standing to the default score of RD, citing its failure to repay a coupon payment on $600 million in greenback-denominated bonds due in 2027.

⚡️ General Staff: Ukrainian forces repel Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast.

[MagicFox]

Thread summarising escalatory moves by Russia on Ukraine and via gas ahead of possible ceasefire proposal: https://twitter.com/vtchakarova/status/1549324635451293698?s=21&t=RtPA9B0h8YfFSOuWW_oObA

[Hillsmakeyoustrong]

Completely off on a tangent but I've been wondering about the Mariupol defenders. Especially the woman who sang so beautifully. I know some were released not too long ago but do we know who actually left the plant and if they did I'm supposing they are still in a Russian detention centre.

[Ijsbear]

cont'd highlights from UkraineNOW and Kyiv Indep. Telegram channels

Selection panel declares winner set to lead Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (kyivindependent.com/national/selection-panel-declares-winner-to-lead-special-anti-corruption-prosecutors-office)
Oleksandr Klymenko, a detective at the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, was proclaimed the winner after receiving the highest score back in December


💡The Egyptian President confirmed his readiness to export Eastern Mediterranean gas to Europe through Egyptian LNG stations.

📌 Austria is not going to join NATO following the example of Sweden and Finland, Chancellor Karl Nehammer said at a press conference in Vienna [they don't have to. No one can get to Austria except through NATO countries!]

⚡️Baykar Makina will not sell its Bayraktar TB2 drones to Russia, Turkish company CEO Haluk Bayraktar told CNN
“We have never done this and never will. Because we support Ukraine, we support its sovereignty, its resilience and independence.

🔗 The Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to stabilize the situation at the front, — Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi

Ukrainian artillery hit the Antonovskiy Bridge in Kherson.
The bridge is the sole road link across the Dnipro river - all Russian supplies and reinforcements entering Kherson by road must travel across it... [If you look at the map this is fairly big. There are however still 15,000 Ru soldiers in Kherson]


⚡️ The U.S. House of Representatives supported Finland and Sweden joining NATO — The Hill


🔺 The Russians are mobilizing even prisoners under criminal charges in the occupied Luhansk region — Regional Military Administration
The Russian invaders no longer trust the local collaborators, therefore, the Russian security forces are in charge of mobilization issues. However, there are many applicants, and accordingly, there are also many mobilized.


‼️ Enemy equipment and a thousand military personnel headed towards Zaporizhzhia from the Donetsk region — adviser to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andriushchenko
[clearly one of the next targets].

[ScrollingLeaves]

@Ijsbear Today 11.59
The Russians are mobilizing even prisoners under criminal charges in the occupied Luhansk region — Regional Military Administration
The Russian invaders no longer trust the local collaborators, therefore, the Russian security forces are in charge of mobilization issues. However, there are many applicants, and accordingly, there are also many mobilized

An increase in the number of nasty war crimes will be committed by these already convicted criminals. Some may not even be sane. Weren’t there already reports of this a while back?

Is that bridge to Kherson the one that should have been blown up in the first place?

[Ijsbear]

Im not sure if the bridge should have been blown up, I hadn't heard about that.

Our Kherson guests think the bridge is definitely still useable. It was a warning to the Russians that they can take it out at any time.

I suppose that if they bring reinforcements the Ukrainians will take it out. If they don't then the Ukrainians may leave it open for Russian retreat.


[awfulness warning]

Im sure there will be even more war crimes yes.
People who were blacklisted by Wagner are being recruited and there were
videos of those people playing football with a severed head.

[MagicFox]

Lawrence Freedman recommends this article on Nuclear Risks and Consequences in the Ukraine war: trendsresearch.org/insight/the-ukraine-war-nuclear-risks-and-consequences/

[ScrollingLeaves]

@Ijsbear · Today 14:02
Im not sure if the bridge should have been blown up, I hadn't heard about that

This is what I was thinking of:
(This report is from Al Jazeera May 27th)

Ukrainians question the ease of Russian capture of Kherson

Many civilians in Kherson say they believe key civilian and military officials ‘surrendered’ the region and that they feel abandoned.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/27/residents-question-ease-of-russian-capture-of-ukraines-kherson

[ScrollingLeaves]

From Ijsbear’s Take aways 11:59
Enemy equipment and a thousand military personnel headed towards Zaporizhzhia from the Donetsk region — ^adviser to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andriushchenko
[clearly one of the next targets].^

Isn’t it awful to think that lots of people evacuated to Zapporizhia and now they will be attacked again.

[Ijsbear]

Many civilians in Kherson say they believe key civilian and military officials ‘surrendered’ the region and that they feel abandoned

It turns out that someone high up in the City Governorship fed all key points of military and civilian infrastructure to the Russians, it seems.

The Mayor was devastated. There doesn't seem to be any question of his loyalty though.

[blueshoes]

@Ijsbear

Many civilians in Kherson say they believe key civilian and military officials ‘surrendered’ the region and that they feel abandoned

It turns out that someone high up in the City Governorship fed all key points of military and civilian infrastructure to the Russians, it seems.

The Mayor was devastated. There doesn't seem to be any question of his loyalty though.

In addition, from reading the aljazeera link, "right after the takeover, Russian occupants seized electronic databases the fleeing Ukrainian intelligence officers failed to erase, Mayor Kolykhayev said. The occupiers began to pinpoint, abduct and interrogate war veterans, pro-Ukrainian activists and officials. Some returned home with bruises and wounds, and some have never been seen again.
“People disappear every day,” a Kherson resident told Al Jazeera."

Such a terrible betrayal.

Russia also diverted -stole- energy and water from Kherson to supply Crimea. They clearly had a plan to capture Kherson early on and managed to take it intact to their advantage.

[blueshoes]

Weird incident yesterday at Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant which killed and hospitalised Russian soldiers, causing panic among their ranks. Does anyone have more info on this?

Russia has cynically been using the nuclear plant to store their weapons, including missile systems, knowing that Ukraine will not attack it. Russia has also been shelling Ukraine across the water from there to the other side of the river Dnipro.

[MissConductUS]

Good article on how Russian logistics are collapsing. It covers everything from reserve vehicles and tanks that have had their engines stolen to overused artillery failing for lack of replacement tubes/barrels.

Logistics Collapse

Also, a Ukrainian official announced that US SECDEF Lloyd Austin has provided "great news" with details to be announced later.

mobile.twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1549086948010115072

I guess it's to announce the shipment or receipt of ATACMS missiles for the HIMARS and M270s. Remember that while the range is a big improvement over the existing M31 rockets, there are some disadvantages, primarily one per pod instead of six and the million dollar price tag. The Russians may also have better luck intercepting them due to the longer flight time and the fact that since they are larger, they will be easier to see on radar. I think the Ukrainian target of Russian air defenses has been to mitigate the risk to the ATACMS rounds when they get them.