Ukraine Invasion: Part 24

[MagicFox]

Welcome one and all and thanks again to everyone contributing

@RedToothBrush has he been hacked?! Is that real?

I hope that's genuine and the house of cards is beginning to fall.

@RedToothBrush · 06/05/2022 16:26
^Kevin Rothrock AT KevinRothrock
ruscg_edinburgh I, the Consul General of
Russia in Edinburgh, Yakovlev A. And., I
categorically condemn the behavior of the
military special operation of the Russian Armed Forces against the sovereign, independent state of Ukraine. I fully support any assistance to Ukrainian Armed Forces from EU countries.^
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22 minutes ago • See original

well would you look at that

That is wonderful.

Unconfirmed, rumours of another ship damaged

Trent Telenko
@TrentTelenko
·
55m
Ukraine got another Russian Naval vessel:

"A Russian frigate is on fire near Serpentine (updated)

The explosion followed by burning occurred on board the Russian frigate of project 11356Р of the Burevestnik type, which is located near Zmeiny Island."
1/

The account has been made private so probably a hack (or someone higher up the food chain has changed the password from whoever controlled the account but I think that's unlikely).

I think it's the Makarov and not "another" after that.

twitter.com/conflicts/status/1522585398630916096?s=21&t=aqQuIhUe89SuqvoP4iNtkA

Alleged footage of the Makarov after being hit - if that's legit it looks like a bad (or good depending on your POV) strike.

Reuters reporting that Putin to deliver “doomsday” message to the West on the 9th and that the doomsday plane will take part in the fly past. My reading is that this is nothing but more bluster but thought nervous posters might find pre-warning of such words helpful. Before the likes of the DM get hold of them.

Just to follow on from Jelly, the domesday bit refers to the fact that a plane known as the domesday plan will be shown off in the parade.

"A fly-past over St Basil's Cathedral will include supersonic fighters, Tu-160 strategic bombers and, for the first time since 2010, the Il-80 "doomsday" command plane, which would carry Russia's top brass in the event of a nuclear war, the Defence Ministry said.
In that scenario, the Il-80 is designed to become the roaming command centre for the Russian president. It is packed with technology but specific details are Russian state secrets."

Dooms not domes, sorry

@BreadInCaptivity · 06/05/2022 16:35

MagicFox
@RedToothBrush has he been hacked?! Is that real?

The account has been made private so probably a hack (or someone higher up the food chain has changed the password from whoever controlled the account but I think that's unlikely).

Sorry to seem stupid about terms but does what you say mean the consul story is most likely true? Or, unlikely to be true?

I suspect untrue.

Unless someone is very keen to get a fast track recall notice to Moscow.

Unfortunately looks like that footage may be fake.

Most reputable sources are holding judgement on whether the Makarov has been hit but on balance it's not looking likely.

What's the betting that the technology it's packed with would struggle to compete against my old Commadore 64?

I suspect he’ll also say some doomsdayish stuff but I wouldn’t give it much credence. I think the fact that Scholz is tipped to be in Kyiv on Monday and that Jill Biden will be in Eastern Europe speaks volumes for how empty Western leaders consider any threats to be.

In other, slightly more positive, news another 14 civilians have been rescued from Avostal. Small numbers but every single person is important.

Most reputable sources are holding judgement on whether the Makarov has been hit but on balance it's not looking likely.

My recollection is that the Moskvas sinking took quite a while to be confirmed too.

BreadInCaptivity: Turkey controls access to the Black Sea and has closed this to military vessels.

Can submarines get in? I believe Russia has been firing missiles at Ukraine from submarines.

Considering that Pentagon estimates were that many of the Russian BTGs rushed into the Donbas were below strength, you can see why such loss rates can’t continue for much longer.

Only question is whether Ukrainian losses have weakened them to such a degree as well.

I worry about how Ukraine's forces are holding up. Russia makes daily claims about inflicting damage on Ukraine's infrastructure and depots through missiles and shelling but I don't tend to hear from Ukraine's side the extent of their losses.

The good thing is that Ukraine will continue to get supplies of hard equipment from the West whereas Russia's ability to resupply is hamstrung by sanctions and supply chain issues and facilities in Russia going boom. I do hope Ukraine has enough soldiers left to operate that equipment when the time comes for them to be ready to use it.

I think Russia currently has 4 subs in the Black Sea https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/03/meet-the-kilo-the-russian-submarine-the-us-navy-calls-the-black-hole/

They technically can't get more in as the Bosporus is shut to military vessels and they're supposed to traverse it on the surface. The Straits are very narrow (700m?) so I presume that Turkey can monitor if anything tries to sneak through "deep" - but I'm no expert.

Yeah, we'll see in the next few hours I guess. It's interesting that many in the main stream media are reporting this as fact while the OSINT guys on Twitter are being more cautious.

It does seem that at this time there aren't any corroborating reports of increased radio traffic, Russian rescue craft etc.

Also just saw that Russia is saying that the Moskva sank by accident in international waters and wasn't in any case part of the "Special Operation". So they don't have to pay the $135,000 death benefit to the families of the sailors that died:

www.kyivpost.com/eastern-europe/kremlin-to-family-members-of-moskva-cruiser-crew-ship-sank-by-accident-no-war-compensation.html

Here's a twitter thread with the letter and translation:

twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1522449358075174913

So we're at an interesting point where the USA are saying "Yup, we helped the Ukrainians sink your ship" and the Russians are saying "Oh no you didn't, the ship just spontaneously combusted".

Well actually the Russians will blame the Americans while still claiming the ship wasn't struck by missiles. They don't believe in cognitive dissonance there.

Weren't they supposed to run out in April, then we were told in early may and now June?

Thanks, Prettybird. I was indeed wondering whether Russian submarines can creep in via the depths.

It does seem that at this time there aren't any corroborating reports of increased radio traffic, Russian rescue craft etc.

But there are reports of US drones watching the area (you can see the "race track" shaped flight patterns) and also of a Russian rescue ship being dispatched to the location where the Admiral Makarov was supposedly on fire. So there are definitely "signs" that this could be true.

No. April was the earliest possible default on debt.

They managed to stave that off.

Mid May to early June was touted as when the economy will start to tank due to supply chain issues.

And Trent Telenko has said for some time that mid May to early June was an issue for equipment for the Russians.

In terms of man power June is when Russia can start to get more conscripts through. But thats of little use if they haven't got the equipment to support them and the Ukrainians start to go in the other direction.

You in effect start to get a turkey shoot scenario

If Russians are able to sneak in a sub, so can someone else.

Just saying...