Ukraine Invasion: Part 24

[MagicFox]

Welcome one and all and thanks again to everyone contributing

Not just drones, there's have been crewed intelligence gathering assets (for example an RAF Rivet Joint RC-135) visible in the area on the ADS tracker sites, so it looks something worthy of further investigation has gone on, though I've also seen comment that some of the video footage recently released might be faked (video game origin) so it's another wait and see.

^Euromaidan Press
@EuromaidanPress
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🇺🇦General Staff reports successful offensive further north-east of Kharkiv. Ukrainian army regained control over 6 settlements: Oleksandrivka, Fedorivka, Ukrayinka, Shestakovo, Peremoha, and part of Cherkaski Tyshky.^

My money is perhaps one or two other leaders will suddenly appear in Ukraine on Monday. That will metaphorically Piss on Putin's Parade then.

Plus.....according to windy.com it is going to literally Piss on Putin's Parade on Monday:

www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,2022051015,55.540,37.771,8

I read a report recently that suggested there have been on average 130 'Western' aircraft monitoring Russian activity and comms at any one time. The Rivet Joint over RM and the Global Hawk over the Russian BSF appear frequently on Flight Radar 24. There are many more that do not appear. I have a contact who lives in Constanta who corroborates much activity over the Black Sea, particularly helicopters.

^www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3476727-putin-keeps-sending-conscripts-to-war-intelligence.html^

Claims that some conscripts have only 4 days' training before being sent to the front line.

I definitely do not want to read the news on the 9th - I might just head into work that day and hide out somewhere with no signal. Maybe nuclear medicine…ironically 😂 Even though we can likely assume it’s just bluster it’s still so triggering for me and I don’t know why but I struggle to not let it get in my head. It’s like anxiety about anxiety 🙄

To get even anywhere close to a 'Western' conscript they would need 5 months. Those poor kids and their families. I have no idea what a UA conscript needs, but by all accounts probably less as they have hearts of lions/lionesses and seem quite adaptable.

I absolutely hear you! I see the word nuclear written down and go into an anxiety spiral!

I feel the same about the 9th, just...real unease

I feel really nervous but at the same time kind of realise my anxiety is of my own making and it’s just another day.

Gosh this is depressing. A thread about pre-Ukraine concerns about the nuclear arms race between the US and Russia. I mean, wtf?! twitter.com/cirincione/status/1522636254659104768?s=21&t=u7KECc2dSIxonnNDNvZVsA

@Igotjelly amd @MagicFox I’m glad it’s not just me. I’m fully aware we’re going to see some epic willy waving of the worst kind. I’ll never see a waving willy in the same way again at this rate.

www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/05/06/the-russian-frigate-admiral-makarov-might-be-the-juiciest-target-in-the-black-sea/

Oh the irony....worth a read...
Extract:

Admiral Makarov and her sisters are not big ships. Displacing just 4,000 tons of water and accommodating 200 crew, they’re less than half the size of the U.S. Navy’s main surface combatants, the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.
But the frigates are about as big as Russia can make a non-nuclear surface combatant these days, for reasons that—ironically—have everything to do with the current war. Throughout the Soviet era and for years after the USSR’s collapse, Russia acquired its big marine engines from Ukraine.
After Russia in 2014 invaded and annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula—including the port of Sevastopol where Admiral Makarov now is based—Kyiv barred certain exports to Russia, including the marine engines Russia requires for any fast, conventional vessel displacing more than 5,000 tons or so.
Which is to say, after 2014 the Russian navy struggled to build big warships. That made it impossible to replace, like for like, the biggest Soviet-vintage ships such as Moskva, which displaced 12,000 tons.

@MagicFox i guess it’s always been something hanging over us we are just more acutely aware of it now. I was thinking that North Korea never used to send me into a tailspin and it still doesn’t really but they definitely are at the hands of a mad person. It’s always been on my periphery (thanks a-level history). You’d hope that this conflict would have re-focused everyone on the risk though.

Yes, eyes are now fully open! 👀

Surely may 9 won't be doomsday though? Not if they are parading the doomsday plane and Putin is not on it?

This is a very good point. Unless he’s waving out of the pilot’s window, it should be ok.

I think in terms of managing anxiety about a rogue nuclear armed state we have a lot to learn from the South Koreans. I have friends in Seoul and, whilst they’re acutely aware of the threat from their ever present angry neighbour, they refuse to let it stop them living life and thriving.

My anxiety had calmed a little in everyone thinking I was silly to worry about Putin nuking the uk, however after all you guys worrying I’m not thinking ohh god?! Is it more likely now! Will Monday be doomsday! 😳
althougu wasn’t Putin having surgery soon, surely if his plan all along was doomsday what would be the point in that?

It's ok, the term has been taken out of context: it's a nickname for a plane that will be part of the victory parade. Obviously it's symbolic but atm it's just a plane

I’m 99.9% sure that Monday will not be doomsday. What I am acknowledging is I’m a sucker for alarmist propaganda despite my better judgement.

And I maintain that the chances of Russia using a nuclear weapon against the UK at this point are slim to non-existstant.

Haha ok that made me feel better, although I’m quite aware that because people on mumsnet don’t see it to be likely doesn’t mean it isn’t, however it makes me feel better! 🤣

@JustLookingAtTractors if Putin is smiling from the cockpit then we have a problem

I agree with @Igotjelly. I'm not worried about nukes, it's extremely unlikely.