Ukraine Invasion: Part 24

[MagicFox]

Welcome one and all and thanks again to everyone contributing

A supported break out from the steelworks is not impossible. Subject to the number and condition of civilians. The risk assessment is becoming more nuanced.

The intelligence support is high and the UA has some air support including drones. It is risky, but stranger things have happened in war.

www.mk.ru/politics/2022/05/06/peskov-prizval-filtrovat-informaciyu-ot-bellingcat.html
Peskov urged to filter information from Bellingcat

Bellingcat publications (included in the register of media-foreign agents) must be perceived through special filters - sometimes as "deliberate lies", and sometimes with a sense of humor. This was announced on Friday, May 6, by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, commenting on the material of the publication that the inner circle of Russian President Vladimir Putin allegedly did not have accurate information about the start of a special operation in Ukraine.

According to Peskov, data on the special operation could not be widely disseminated on the eve of its start. Therefore, a very narrow circle of people was acquainted with such “classified information”.

The Kremlin spokesman also stressed that this is "absolutely normal practice." Moreover, he noted that the very essence of the special operation does not provide for wide information about it.

Eliot Higgins AT EliotHiggins
AT christogrozev have you been going off and upsetting the Kremlin again?

Christo Grozev AT christogrozev
This is surreal. Not only the fact that Putin (via his spokesman) needs to justify himself for what bellingcat say, but that in fact Peskov confirmed what we said: that most of the political elite was kept in the dark about the upcoming war.

This must be the first example of the category "denial-non-denial".
In the first sentence he says he says don't trust what bellingcat says, and in his second sentence he explains why what bellingcat says is unavoidably true.

(also: there's no publication by bellingcat saying anything like this, but why let facts get in the way of a good denial non denial)

So Putin not having accurate information about the state of the army and how badly the first stage of the war, really isn't an out there idea from this??? That's why bellingcat is bad, (even though this isn't really their thing, thats more OSINT) because bellingcat keep finding out shit that Putin doesn't want them to so they are the easy scapegoat. Or something????

Odd

@BringBackCoffeeCreams · 06/05/2022 12:48
frontierindia.com/all-about-bomb-shelters-at-the-azovstal-steel-plant/

Fascinating, and how impressive these underground systems are as feats of architecture and engineering. Thank you, @BringBackCoffeeCreams

I wonder if the defending soldiers have a map of the whole labyrinth? I should think invaders would have a very difficult time not being lost and trapped in tunnels unless someone in Russia also had had a map and the Russian soldiers have them too.

@Natsku · 06/05/2022 11:47
The Russian "google" Yandex has one data centre outside Russia, in Finland, and the electric company cut off their electricity two weeks ago and all other electric companies they tried asking have refused to make contracts with them so they've been having to run off a diesel generator. They're not on the sanctions list so they didn't have to do this but still did.

That is an admirable, and unified response on the part of the electricity companies given they were not compelled to do this.

A lot of the people who have been trapped there are workers from the plant. They probably know the tunnels inside out.

Reuters - Will Putin use nuclear weapons. Interesting read. For me this stood out as ringing true.

"Since 1945, every leader of a nuclear power has rejected the use of nuclear weapons in battle for excellent reasons. Putin will be no exception, acting not from a soft heart but a hard head. He knows that extraordinary retaliation and universal opprobrium would follow, with no remotely comparable strategic upsides to justify them"

CNN 1 hour ago was reporting this about the Makarov.

I see CNN says they cannot confirm this. But I wonder if the report from last night was correct after all @RedToothBrush. Maybe there are two ships given you mentioned the Admiral Makarov may have been confused with another ship ( post this morning).

*www.cnbc.com/2022/05/06/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html

Ukrainian media is reporting Russian naval ship Admiral Makarov is on fire in the Black Sea.

Oleksiy Honcharenko, a member of Ukraine's parliament, suggested via Telegram that the frigate was in distress and may be heading for the same fate as Russia's flagship missile cruiser Moskva — which sunk on April 14 after being struck by two Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles.

CNBC has not been able to independently verify the claims.

— Sam Meredith

6m ago, Ukrainian Authorities reporting that more civilians have been evacuated from the steel plant. (source - Sky News)

That trafficking article is just dreadful.

Thank you @Ijsbear
Here is a quote from Sky News about evacuation at steel plant. It says they took out almost 500 civilians.
17m ago
13:27
More civilians rescued from besieged Mariupol steel plant, Ukraine says
More civilians have been rescued from the tunnels under a besieged steel plant in Mariupol, a Ukrainian official has said Friday.
As reported here, fighters holed up at the sprawling complex are making a last stand to prevent Moscow's complete takeover of the strategic port city.
Some 2,000 Ukrainian fighters, by Russia's most recent estimate, are in a vast maze of tunnels and bunkers beneath Azovstal steelworks — and they have repeatedly refused to surrender.
Ukraine said a few hundred civilians were also trapped there — and as the battle has ramped up in recent days, fears for their safety have only grown.
But the head of Ukraine's presidential office, Andriy Yermak, said today: "We conducted another stage of a complex operation to evacuate people from Mariupol and Azovstal. I can say that we managed to take out almost 500 civilians."

If Ukraine has hit another battleship this is incredible. This one is going to really hurt Putin. Wasn't it only commissioned in 2017?

Oh dear
Never Mind
Anyway.....

What sort of numbers of battleships do the Russians actually have?

It's not just about how many they have it's also about where they are.

Turkey controls access to the Black Sea and has closed this to military vessels.

The upshot being Russia can't reinforce its fleet there.

That's why the loss of the Moskova was such a big deal and would also be true re: the loss of another ship.

Doesn't matter what naval capability they have overall if they get it where they need it to be.

So the real question is what capability they have left in the Black Sea.

Enjoy.

www.wdmmw.org/

but @BreadInCaptivity says, no helicopter can lift a ship over land and drop it in the Black Sea.

UK's defence ministry said Russia has 20 ships available in the Black Sea.

www.reuters.com/world/europe/britain-says-russias-black-sea-fleet-retains-ability-strike-ukraine-2022-04-28/

Looking at that list of warships, I am amazed at how many North Korea has.

And Indonesia (4th). Huge population (4th), large coastline (3rd). But currently low % of GDP (0.75%).

We can expect to see increases in Naval procurement especially for those democratic countries operating in the West Pacific / China Seas region.

From Trent Telenko re: reports that Russian Naval Ship the Admiral Makarov which is a Admiral Grigorovich-Class Frigate operating within the Black Sea has been hit by a Ukrainian missile (note: there is still no unbiased confirmation of this yet).

"This would be very nice, if true.

Adm Makarov carries 24 (2 × 12) 3S90M Shtil-1 VLS cells for 9M317M/ME Buk type SAM's, NATO designation SA-N-7C.

Thus she represents a large part of Russia's remaining area air defense capability in the Black Sea after the loss of Moskva"

twitter.com/trenttelenko/status/1522379683580502017?s=21&t=aqQuIhUe89SuqvoP4iNtkA

The Makarov is also one of Russias newest frigates (2017) in a fleet that has a lot of old ships, so it's a big loss in that regard if Ukrainian missile technology has been able to breech the security of what should be a very hard target.

Raises additional questions about the fleets defensive capability as unlike the Moskva this ship should have been packing all the shiny new toys....

Phillips P. OBrien AT PhillipsPOBrien
If you want to see what a grinding battle of attrition looks like, take a look at Ukrainian claimed Russian losses of tanks and APCs since the Battle of the Donbas started. Pretty steady when presented as two day totals.

We can assume Ukrainian losses, even though we have no detail on them from, are equally relentless. It’s a question of who can take them for longer.

Btw, Ukrainian estimates of Russian losses paint a pretty clear picture that any Russian offensive can’t last that much longer. Even if actual Russian losses are only 2/3 of those claimed, since Apr 18 the Russians would have lost 212 tanks (319 claimed) and 416 APC (625 claimed)

That’s almost 12 tanks and just over 23 APC per day. Something equivalent to the fighting vehicle component of a full strength BTG every day for 18 days. If Ukrainian estimates are accurate; it would be 27 full strength BTGs in that time.

Considering that Pentagon estimates were that many of the Russian BTGs rushed into the Donbas were below strength, you can see why such loss rates can’t continue for much longer.

Only question is whether Ukrainian losses have weakened them to such a degree as well.

David Ryan AT DavidRy72720988
Are my calculations correct?
At this rate, Russia will run out of heavy equipment in 60 days?

ImaginaryStranger AT ImagyStranger
Just about right.

I believe Russia has access to the Black Sea via a shipping canal too. But I have no idea if it's suitable for warships. Is it like the Panama Ship Canal or the manky, shopping trolley filled one that runs behind the old biscuit factory in my home town?

David Ryan AT DavidRy72720988
Are my calculations correct?
At this rate, Russia will run out of heavy equipment in 60 days?

ImaginaryStranger AT ImagyStranger
Just about right.

So we can expect Putin to announce that the special operation is a success at the end of June and look at ways to establish peace for the "pro-Russian" areas he has "liberated?"

At which point Ukraine will turn around and point out its veto over the EU's sanctions.

Wives of Mariupol soldiers dispersed by police at Kyiv protest | Ukraine | The Guardian
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/06/wives-mariupol-soldiers-dispersed-police-kyiv-protest-ukraine-russia

They we’re not allowed to be photographed holding placards saying Mariupol. Some men if conscription age were taken to be interviewed at conscription offices.

Would there be a particular reason for refusing permission for this protest, and for stopping ‘Mariupol’ placards in i op articular?

Kevin Rothrock AT KevinRothrock
well would you look at that

The only way to get a warship into the Black Sea is through the bosphorus strait.

The Manych canal (between the Caspian and Black Sea) just isn't big (wide or deep) enough though a project to turn it into a much bigger canal (project name Eurasia canal) is being developed.

I'm not sure if the Eurasia (if it went ahead) would be big enough either but I don't know much about it other than it's being mooted (re: increasing trade capacity).