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Ukraine Invasion: Part 24

1000 replies

MagicFox · 05/05/2022 17:40

Welcome one and all and thanks again to everyone contributing

OP posts:
Thread gallery
33
TheABC · 11/05/2022 23:08

I spotted that thread on Twitter, too @RedToothBrush and did a double-take. It's significant that Ukrainian's Finance Minister said earlier they were looking at kicking Russia fully out of Ukraine - not just up to the Feb 24th borders.

It looks like Russia is about experience a modern insurgency nightmare.

prettybird · 11/05/2022 23:22

MagicFox · 11/05/2022 22:33

Argh why no paragraphs?!?! I swear that was very neatly and clearly formatted when I pressed post

No, it's not just you. I've been talking to MNHQ about this. They asked me (acknowledging it would be a faff) for me to document/film how I was posting but I pointed out that since other people!: posts were exhibiting the same problem, it didn't seem to have much point.

They then acknowledged that there did appear to be a problem with the latest update (last night) of the MN App Hmm

No shit Sherlock Wink

(And for the record there are or should be 4 paragraphs in this post but they'll only be visible to those on the desktop or mobile versions)

Ijsbear · 11/05/2022 23:25

Regarding use of nuclear weopons, Yes. If the West backs down then any state will know that if they can get weopons they will win.

Regarding Putin I think that very clever and experienced people are balancing all the many risks, including Point 1 of yours, all round.

If it got to the point of Putin giving the orders, would his subordinates really do it? There seem to be a lot of rumblings of dissatisfaction in the Kremlin.

Secondly if Putin fires weopons ... well. Actually I think the West would need to go in hard with nuclear weopons in return, aimed solely at Russia of course. Because at that point if Putin has gone there first, the entire world including China would turn against him. They might not say so but the leadership would see him as extremely poor. He's already proved he can't do what he says, ie "settle the Ukrainian question quickly" and he's shown the whole world that the Russian army is hollow. They might even still win in Ukraine but it won't make much difference. The Russian military has performed pathetically.

To my mind a lot depends on the media war which Zelensky has played superbly. If he can get the world onside, any nuclear weopons that Putin uses will be profoundly counter-productive.

Ijsbear · 11/05/2022 23:28

The site of the attack has been geolocated to near Novoazovsk, a town deep in the separatist "Donetsk People's Republic"

The Chinese media are still backing the Russians then for public consumption.

MagicFox · 12/05/2022 06:42

Obviously Aleksey Arestovych is advisor to Zelensky but his latest assessment suggests Russia looking for off ramp and minimising political ambitions. Doesn't accord with US intelligence report on Putin's likely next moves but it's much nicer to believe in!

twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1524496426327289860?s=21&t=e3UQiZR0xASx3bZbBdtLYQ

OP posts:
Ijsbear · 12/05/2022 07:07

Do not know how reliable this is:

Summary of livestream with Aleksey Arestovych for 11 May:

  1. Great reshuffle in Russia’s general staff. Gerasimov is de-facto suspended from his responsibilities. First Tank Army commander replaced. Russia’s own evaluation of its efforts is clear.

twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1524496426327289860?s=21&t=e3UQiZR0xASx3bZbBdtLYQ

ISW Key Takeaways from yesterday

The Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City has forced Russian troops onto the defensive and has successfully alleviated artillery pressure on Kharkiv City.

Russian forces continued efforts to encircle Ukrainian positions in the Severodonetsk-Rubizhne-Lysychansk area but did not make any confirmed advances.

Russian forces may be initiating a new advance towards Bakhmut after capturing Popasna in order to secure highway access north to Slovyansk.

Russian forces are attempting to consolidate their positions in western Kherson Oblast to push into Mykolaiv Oblast.

Pro-Russian Telegram sources reported Ukrainian forces may be conducting a counterattack 40km north of Izyum to cut off Russian units in this key town, though ISW cannot confirm these reports at this time.


From Ukraine NOW telegram:

Operational information from the General Staff of the Armed Forces: up-to-date information on the Russian invasion at 06:00 on May 12, 2022.

In the Donetsk direction, Russian enemy units are trying to develop offensive operations in the Lyman, Severodonetsk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Kurakhiv directions. The main task remains to establish full control over Rubizhne, capture Lyman and Severodonetsk.

On the Liman direction, the enemy crossed the Siversky Donets River in order to reach the main forces and conduct an offensive. In the direction of Siversk, the enemy is conducting an offensive in the direction of Zelena Dolyna and Novoselivka. The fighting continues.

To ensure the overcoming of the water barrier, the Russian aggressor from the territory of the Russian Federation in the direction of Kreminna transferred the equipment of the pontoon-bridge park.

In the Severodonetsk direction, the Russian enemy advances in the direction of Kudryashivka, Severodonetsk with partial success.

On the Bakhmut direction, the Russian enemy is storming Pervomaisk and Komyshuvakha, the fighting continues.

In the Avdiivka direction, the Russian enemy stormed Novobakhmutivka and Novokalynove.

In the Kurakhiv direction, the Russian enemy advances in the directions of Stepne - Novomykhailivka, Slavne - Novomykhailivka and Oleksandrivka - Marinka. The fighting continues.

In Mariupol, the main efforts of the Russian invaders are focused on blocking and trying to destroy our units in the area of the Azovstal plant. The enemy does not stop air strikes.

On the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the defenders of Ukraine repulsed nine enemy attacks, destroyed eight tanks, six armored combat vehicles, five vehicles and one enemy anti-aircraft gun.

Air defense units shot down four Orlan-10 UAVs.


Persistant claims with fotos of a big disaster for the Russians crossing a river.

Euromaidan PR
@EuromaidanPR
·
5h
More info on the Ukrainian attack at Siverskyi Donets Riveran entire enemy battalion was destroyed50 tanks and heavy equipment, a pontoon, a tugboat and, the icing on the cake, 1000 enemy troops.
Wow.

[I have not seen this confirmed by ISW but a lot of people think it's true though the numbers of tanks destroyed vary from 10 - 50. Can't be taken as wholly reliable yet. However the ISW are clear that the BTGs are struggling now since they were not rested and repaired from the Kyiv offensive]

-

The Kyiv Independent, [12/05/2022 01:09]
⚡️ Odesa Territorial Defense troops find ancient amphorae while digging trenches.

The ancient containers date back to 4th-5th century BC, according to the 126th Brigade in a Facebook post on May 11.

The artifacts have been donated to the Odesa Archaeological Museum.

The Kyiv Independent, [12/05/2022 05:09]
⚡️ Russia accuses Ukraine of shelling Belgorod, reports casualties for first time.

Governor of Russia’s Belgorod Oblast Vyacheslav Gladkov claimed that alleged shelling by Ukraine has left one dead and six wounded.

Ukrainian authorities have yet to respond to the accusation.

The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces have warned since the beginning of the war that Russia may try to stage provocations on its own territory to predicate or justify an attack on Ukraine.

--

The Kyiv Independent, [12/05/2022 01:09]
Odesa Territorial Defense troops find ancient amphorae while digging trenches.

The ancient containers date back to 4th-5th century BC, according to the 126th Brigade in a Facebook post on May 11.

The artifacts have been donated to the Odesa Archaeological Museum.

--

From Zelenskyy's official Telegram channel:

On behalf of all Ukrainians, he thanked the Atlantic Council for the award. To reward all the Ukrainian people is right and fair, because courage is our national character trait. Today the whole world sees this and admires the heroism of Ukrainians. At the same time, I want it not to become something ordinary for everyone. To do this, we must say and remember that behind the courage, the wisdom of our people are thousands of real stories, names, feats.

Ijsbear · 12/05/2022 07:08

ffs. I went thru that post so carefully about the crossings out

Ijsbear · 12/05/2022 07:21

Also, Finland is laying out their NATO position at 10:00 Natsku time, 08:00 UK time. This is going to be interesting.

Natsku · 12/05/2022 07:54

Ijsbear · 12/05/2022 07:21

Also, Finland is laying out their NATO position at 10:00 Natsku time, 08:00 UK time. This is going to be interesting.

Yup, waiting until after that before I get on with other things today. Internet is being shit though, having to watch on my phone with my mobile internet rather than wifi, urgh.

Natsku · 12/05/2022 08:05

Their statement says Finland must apply for NATO membership as a matter of urgency.

TargusEasting · 12/05/2022 08:07

Nice morning report @Ijsbear Thank you.

Good work by the UA on the pontoons.
Pontoon bridges - pictures

Good news on China also and backs up what UA authorities have been saying.

I sense a bit of an upbeat shift overnight in news generally. It’s bad of course for Ukrainians. Not taking away from that, but there seems an underlying coherence from democratic nations to focus on Russia losing in so many ways from this war.

All we need is Russian troop morale to collapse. That is the game changer, without which it’s the long slog.

ScrollingLeaves · 12/05/2022 08:10

@Ijsbear · 12/05/2022 07:07

Thank you for all the information this morning.

I was wondering about Hythe news regarding the alleged Ukrainian shelling of Belgorod, is it realistic to suggest it could be Russian false flag operations to justify attacking Ukraine given the Russians have
been freely attacking for so long anyway?

Russia accuses Ukraine of shelling Belgorod, reports casualties for first time.

Governor of Russia’s Belgorod Oblast Vyacheslav Gladkov claimed that alleged shelling by Ukraine has left one dead and six wounded.

Ukrainian authorities have yet to respond to the accusation.

The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces have warned since the beginning of the war that Russia may try to stage provocations on its own territory to predicate or justify an attack on Ukraine.

Natsku · 12/05/2022 08:12

All we need is Russian troop morale to collapse. That is the game changer, without which it’s the long slog.
Yup, that would really help. Fingers crossed it happens soon.

MagicFox · 12/05/2022 08:18

New thread:

Ukraine Invasion: Part 25 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4547874-ukraine-invasion-part-25

OP posts:
baroqueandblue · 12/05/2022 08:18

Von Der Leyen sending warnings from Japan today regarding China's relationship with Russia, and describing Russia as the biggest direct threat to world order. (In the Guardian live feed, no article as such yet.)

WorriedMumofTeen16 · 12/05/2022 08:20

TargusEasting · 11/05/2022 22:32

People use a wire to stop a train in Russia.

That is interesting. I wonder how that works if the train is hurtling at high speed.

Ive not read further down to see if anyone's yet replied to this but I'll give my tuppence worth, as a train signaller here in the UK.

If their system is anything like ours (and not had chance to look so am just presuming), it will work with what's called track circuits. These basically detect that a great big hunk of metal is in that particular section of tracks. These sections can be miles long. For the length of time that a train is in that section, it holds the signal/s behind it at red so that no other train can enter that same section, until it clears past the next signal and then the track circuit clears, holds the signal it has passed at red and the previous one can clear to green to allow a train into the section that has just cleared. It's a safety thing and makes movements easy to do and track. And protects the advance train if it breaks down so that nothing backends it.

Unfortunately track circuits can be tricked. A fridge lobbed off a bridge onto tracks, cable theft and so on. These then fool the TC into thinking that a train is "in section" and won't let the signals clear and release. A small length of conductive material eg wire would be very effective at doing this, halting any advancing trains from the previous section as the signals simply won't go green, to protect the train the system thinks is there. As I mentioned, these sections can be miles and miles long, especially rurally. A fridge would be easy to spot although would still require the track to be walked, taking time..Wire would be a very cheap and easy form.of sabotage, taking time to find and clear. In the meantime, everything behind is at a halt.

Requires a basic knowledge of how the TC system works but they obviously do, and if it's a long stretch, or a busy stretch with plenty.of crossovers and junctions, it would cause chaos as trains from other directions would also be held as THEIR signals also wouldn't release as they'd be crossing track where the system thinks there is a train.

Clever and effective

katem98 · 12/05/2022 08:22

@baroqueandblue I saw this earlier posted on BBC. Again, links are pants so have a picture.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 24
RedToothBrush · 12/05/2022 08:32

Phillips P OBrien AT PhillipsPObrien
A clip that shows just how the Russian government's message is in chaos, from propagandist in chief Vladimir Solovyov. A number of fascinating things and worth watching.

First, the claim that the special military operation is now a 'turbo' military operation is rhetoric to cover a basic policy continuation. Soon we might have a super-duper turbo charged operation...and it wont make a difference. When it comes to mobilization; still off the table

Its near the end, but boy he wants to emphasize that mobilization is off the table. Hard to imagine that this message is not being scripted from the very top.

So government message is still not to shift to a more full fledged war footing and mobilize resources. Just as interesting, the real dial down of war aims and the stumble over achievement of 'objectives' (look how glum the rest are at this point).

Speaks first about needing to 'achieve' objectives, but when realizes what he says, backtracks as says that have already been achieved. War was never about Ukraine, only about Donbas. .

Basically for all the rhetoric, this is a desperate hope that the Russian people believe that what the Russian Army has done to now, might be enough to declare victory. Of course the rhetoric might have problem if the Russian Army loses the ability to hold what it has...

Putin doesn't think he can survive general mobilisation. More than one commentator has stressed this. Notably, the ones who seem to know Russia best...

MagicFox · 12/05/2022 08:48

Yes it was really interesting to watch Solovyov in that clip: bumbling and contradicting.

OP posts:
TargusEasting · 12/05/2022 09:10

@WorriedMumofTeen16 That's very helpful. Thank you.

baroqueandblue · 12/05/2022 09:34

Thanks @katem98 yes, that's pretty much what I read 🙂

baroqueandblue · 12/05/2022 09:36

Wow @RedToothBrush 😲

If that's an accurate reading of where things are then I feel renewed hope 🙏

notimagain · 12/05/2022 10:33

No wish to be controversial but there perhaps needs to be an awareness that there's a lot of scatter in the figures being put out by various agencies for Russian losses...there's no doubt the Russians are doing very badly but I think sometimes there's a rush to assume they are down to their last tank/bullet/gun.

Some of the differences in the stats may be down to terminology (the old chestnut about not everything with armour and tracks is a tank), some may be a lack of fact checking/fog of war/double counting/misinformation.

Some sources such as Oryx do seem to have put a lot of effort into fact checking info/trying to geolocate wreckage sites and trying to rule out double counting (for example they've found instances of images the same wrecked vehicle taken from different viewpoints by two different image takers being counted as two different "kills"...

I suppose in conclusion it's a case of treating everything with a bit of scepticism/with caution and being aware we will only (perhaps) know the fine details well after this conflict is over.

DFOD · 12/05/2022 20:16

mobile.twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1524824108449550346

Interesting from John Sweeney - Putin rumoured to have blood cancer

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